Brexit Referendum Superthread

Lemming

Jim2007 wrote: »

On the contrary the full impact of the FX will not be reflected in consumer prices until probably not be felt until Dec/Jan, which is really bad time to discover your purchasing power has been reduced.

And we still wont see anything drastic start to happen until somewhere within the two-year time-frame of article 50 notice being served. Consumer spending might be down on last year, but that would be difficult to pin on Brexit as primary cause alone. As I've said, nothing has actually happened yet, other than an advisory referendum result that apparently the Tories believe is gospel (and losing a ton of futures & security monies on the day of the result). The sh1t has yet to hit the proverbial fan.

Thomas_...

Lemming wrote: »

And we still wont see anything drastic start to happen until somewhere within the two-year time-frame of article 50 notice being served. Consumer spending might be down on last year, but that would be difficult to pin on Brexit as primary cause alone. As I've said, nothing has actually happened yet, other than an advisory referendum result that apparently the Tories believe is gospel (and losing a ton of futures & security monies on the day of the result). The sh1t has yet to hit the proverbial fan.

We´re a many and merry bunch of fortunetellers on this site, aren´t we?

Your estimation is closer to reality for the time being. It´s rather hard to tell how things will develop in the near future. What I see as being also realistic is that the UK won´t get those advantageous trade deals with the USA, Russia or China with terms in which the UK will be better off than she is still yet with the EU that easy.

Probably, your government is rather a tad more careful in sorting out in which direction to go, but the clock is ticking nonetheless.

Thomas_...

Lemming wrote: »

And we still wont see anything drastic start to happen until somewhere within the two-year time-frame of article 50 notice being served. Consumer spending might be down on last year, but that would be difficult to pin on Brexit as primary cause alone. As I've said, nothing has actually happened yet, other than an advisory referendum result that apparently the Tories believe is gospel ...

An interesting article in regards to that part there put in bold:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37446127

Job vacancies in England's financial sector dropped more than 10% after the Brexit vote over passporting and single market concerns, a think tank has said.

Passporting rights let firms trade across the European Union without the need for separate licences.

New finance jobs fell in every English region in July and August, the Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) said.

Eurosceptics have said the UK would not be harmed by leaving the single market.

The fall in vacancies after the Brexit vote was "striking as it is the only year in the past four where this trend has occurred", the IPPR said.


There was a 13.6% drop in job adverts in London, including for administrators, managers and chief executives, the research suggests.

Outside the capital, there was a 12.8% drop in job postings in the North East, an 11.4% fall in the North West and an 11.2% decline in Yorkshire and the Humber.

Clare McNeil, IPPR associate director for work and families, said: "As one of our largest sectors, the financial sector is vital to the wider wellbeing of our economy.
...

Lemming

Thomas_... wrote: »

An interesting article in regards to that part there put in bold:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37446127

So good of you to selectively quote me and then remove the relevant caveat from the very sentence you truncated.

Thomas_...

Lemming wrote: »

So good of you to selectively quote me and then remove the relevant caveat from the very sentence you truncated.

I´ve quoted your post the second time and omitted the part that sounds a tad vulgar to me and I didn´t saw it necessary to have it in the second quotation again.

Lemming

Thomas_... wrote: »

I´ve quoted your post the second time and omitted the part that sounds a tad vulgar to me and I didn´t saw it necessary to have it in the second quotation again.

As I said, selective quotation. I already said that the UK lost a massive amount of futures & securities money immediately following the vote - far more than would have been saved by the Brexit unicorns. And you still felt the need to try and paint it as if I had said the opposite.

Thomas_...

Lemming wrote: »

As I said, selective quotation. I already said that the UK lost a massive amount of futures & securities money immediately following the vote - far more than would have been saved by the Brexit unicorns. And you still felt the need to try and paint it as if I had said the opposite.

Sorry, but that wasn´t my intention at all. I just picked you post to link it with the article. You´re mistaken if you see it in way that I was trying to make your statements look different to your meaning.

Nody

Lemming wrote: »

As I said, selective quotation. I already said that the UK lost a massive amount of futures & securities money immediately following the vote - far more than would have been saved by the Brexit unicorns. And you still felt the need to try and paint it as if I had said the opposite.

Actually they are losing current money such as not being part of research projects etc. which swung into effect directly after the vote. They (as in UK) also froze over 2 billion worth of funded projects because they required UK to put up 50% of the cost.

So there has been direct and immediate effects but the man on the street is unlikely to see said effects directly.

Lemming

Nody wrote: »

Actually they are losing current money such as not being part of research projects etc. which swung into effect directly after the vote. They (as in UK) also froze over 2 billion worth of funded projects because they required UK to put up 50% of the cost.

So there has been direct and immediate effects but the man on the street is unlikely to see said effects directly.

Yes there has been monetary loss, but bar the initial stock-market loss (and academia not withstanding), the rest of it (such as economic activity slowing down in services for example) has proven difficult to pin down conclusively to Brexit to date, as much as gut instinct may say otherwise. Broadly speaking, very little has happened yet simply because ... it [Brexit] hasn't happened. And wont happen until the British government makes a move towards the exit. It's all a waiting game to see how far the penny is looking to drop before the serious money decides what it's doing.

swampgas

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/23/france-and-germany-brush-off-johnsons-eu-baloney-jibe?0p19G=c

Johnson, a leading Brexit advocate, told Sky News on Thursday that the EU’s position that there was an automatic trade-off between access to the single market and free movement was “complete baloney”.

Asked about the remarks at a news conference in Berlin, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, and his French counterpart, Michel Sapin, shot glances at each other before the German host responded.

“We just looked at each other because we’re used to respecting foreign ministers a lot,” Schäuble said.

“If we need to do more, we will gladly send her majesty’s foreign minister a copy of the Lisbon treaty. Then he can read that there is a certain link between the single market and the four core principles in Europe,” he said.

“I can also say it in English. So if clarification is necessary we can pay a visit and explain this to him in good English,” Schäuble said.

Very amusing, and shows just how little progress Boris has made negotiating with the rest of the EU.

Sam Russell

swampgas wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/23/france-and-germany-brush-off-johnsons-eu-baloney-jibe?0p19G=c

Johnson, a leading Brexit advocate, told Sky News on Thursday that the EU’s position that there was an automatic trade-off between access to the single market and free movement was “complete baloney”.

Asked about the remarks at a news conference in Berlin, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, and his French counterpart, Michel Sapin, shot glances at each other before the German host responded.

“We just looked at each other because we’re used to respecting foreign ministers a lot,” Schäuble said.

“If we need to do more, we will gladly send her majesty’s foreign minister a copy of the Lisbon treaty. Then he can read that there is a certain link between the single market and the four core principles in Europe,” he said.

“I can also say it in English. So if clarification is necessary we can pay a visit and explain this to him in good English,” Schäuble said.

Very amusing, and shows just how little progress Boris has made negotiating with the rest of the EU.

I think that is very good - obviously Boris is not generating much respect - either for himself or for doing his homework.

swampgas

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think that is very good - obviously Boris is not generating much respect - either for himself or for doing his homework.

It's going to get interesting the other side of Christmas, when the expectation that Article 50 will be invoked comes into the foreground. Boris doesn't seem to be getting any closer to a coherent position. I hope he's sweating - he deserves to be.

Inquitus

swampgas wrote: »

It's going to get interesting the other side of Christmas, when the expectation that Article 50 will be invoked comes into the foreground. Boris doesn't seem to be getting any closer to a coherent position. I hope he's sweating - he deserves to be.

The Tories have no hope of reconciling the Brexit votes xenophobic immigration stance, their own Eurosceptic wing and the realities of what Europe can offer them in terms of a deal.

It will be amusing watching all this come to a head, especially given the wafer thin majority they have in the commons!

ancapailldorcha

Inquitus wrote: »

It will be amusing watching all this come to a head, especially given the wafer thin majority they have in the commons!

I just got a job with a biotech startup in London and I can say that it's not one bit amusing. The future of this country has effectively been reduced to a battle of (fairly repugnant) personalities. Only UKIP wanted this referendum and they got it, not because a lot of people wanted it but because Dave wanted to keep his party together.

Inquitus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I just got a job with a biotech startup in London and I can say that it's not one bit amusing. The future of this country has effectively been reduced to a battle of (fairly repugnant) personalities. Only UKIP wanted this referendum and they got it, not because a lot of people wanted it but because Dave wanted to keep his party together.

I agree, tbh I think the best hope of undoing Brexit is if the Tory government falls and we have an election where the Lib Dems stand on a Remain stance, it's a long shot I know!

ancapailldorcha

Inquitus wrote: »

I agree, tbh I think the best hope of undoing Brexit is if the Tory government falls and we have an election where the Lib Dems stand on a Remain stance, it's a long shot I know!

I'll vote for them if that happens. I just moved here and might go to one of their events to test the water there.

Sam Russell

Inquitus wrote: »

I agree, tbh I think the best hope of undoing Brexit is if the Tory government falls and we have an election where the Lib Dems stand on a Remain stance, it's a long shot I know!

With Jezza still in control of Labour, then expect a few Blairites to jump ship to LibDems and who knows what might happen. Some Tories of the Remain persuasion might also fail to remain Tories and might also jump ship giving rise to a GE.

We can all hope sense prevails.

djpbarry

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I just got a job with a biotech startup in London and I can say that it's not one bit amusing.

I work in the UK too. My future career here is heavily dependent on EU funding for scientific research. Hence, it looks rather like I don’t have much of a future here anymore.

But, every time I read about a Brexiteer being put in their place by one of their European counterparts, I can’t help but smile to myself and think “****ing told you so.”

djpbarry

Sam Russell wrote: »

With Jezza still in control of Labour, then expect a few Blairites to jump ship to LibDems and who knows what might happen. Some Tories of the Remain persuasion might also fail to remain Tories and might also jump ship giving rise to a GE.

We can all hope sense prevails.

An alternative scenario involves the electorate losing patience with the Tories’ bumbling attempts to negotiate a favourable deal with the EU and UKIP gaining masses of Tory voters as a result.

Lemming

djpbarry wrote: »

An alternative scenario involves the electorate losing patience with the Tories’ bumbling attempts to negotiate a favourable deal with the EU and UKIP gaining masses of Tory voters as a result.

At that point the options are:

1. Out of the frying pan and into the fire
2. UKIP meet their Waterloo attempting to "do a better job than the Tories because, like, y'know, Brexit is easy".
3. Climb-down & much eating of humble pie.
4. Fly me to the moon to escape this madness.

Scofflaw

Interesting analysis of UK's recent economic performance and likely issues post-Brexit: http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/archive/policy-brief/2016/brexit-britain-poor-man-western-europe

The UK has economic strengths, such as a flexible labour market, which ensures that unemployment is low even in many of its economically struggling regions. But contrary to much of the received wisdom, Britain has not been one of Europe’s economic stars over the last 15 years. And Brexit is set to exacerbate the economy’s underlying weaknesses.

In terms of economic growth per head, Britain’s performance has been in line with France, a country now synonymous in the UK with economic failure. The British are no richer relative to the EU-15 average than they were 15 years ago, and the average Briton has to work more hours than the EU-15 average to achieve that income.

Sustainable increases in living standards require economies to combine land, labour, capital and technology in ever-more efficient ways; Britain has made a poor job of this. The UK’s productivity performance has been woeful, falling to just 90 per cent of the EU-15 average. This helps explain why Britons’ wages have risen by much less than their French and German counterparts over the last 15 years.

Moreover, the UK is highly dependent on London and its environs. Apart from London, just one British region – the south-east of England – has a GDP per capita in excess of the EU-15 average, meaning that just 27 per cent of the UK population live in regions wealthier than that EU average.

Far from catching-up with the richer parts of the EU – as one might expect as they adopt technologies and working practices developed elsewhere – the UK’s poor regions have fallen further behind.

Britain’s problems lie mainly on the supply-side and in the structure of public spending. Three key issues stand out: poor skills among a sizeable chunk of the workforce; weak infrastructure and a lack of affordable housing; and the centralisation of political and commercial power in London.

Unfortunately, Brexit risks aggravating most, if not all, of these problems. And Britain’s already startling regional imbalances are likely to worsen further, leaving much of the country’s population living in areas considerably poorer than the EU-15 average.

The Conservatives will provide some fiscal stimulus to counter the weakening of growth caused by Brexit, but will not make the long-term investments in infrastructure and skills needed by the UK. They have few MPs in the poorer regions that would benefit most from such spending, while the resulting higher borrowing and/or taxation would be unpopular with their core vote in England’s wealthy South.

Paints a somewhat grim picture, and one which seems in line with the way the UK has traditionally performed in everything except financial services.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Sam Russell

Scofflaw wrote: »

Interesting analysis of UK's recent economic performance and likely issues post-Brexit: http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/archive/policy-brief/2016/brexit-britain-poor-man-western-europe



Paints a somewhat grim picture, and one which seems in line with the way the UK has traditionally performed in everything except financial services.

cordially,
Scofflaw

And depending on the deal done with the EU, financial services may migrate to Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin as it appears likely that financial passporting fails to materialise for them.

Looks grim for all but the wealthy.

ancapailldorcha

djpbarry wrote: »

An alternative scenario involves the electorate losing patience with the Tories’ bumbling attempts to negotiate a favourable deal with the EU and UKIP gaining masses of Tory voters as a result.

Not too sure about UKIP. Brexit was the glue that was keeping that band of loonies together. The Economist published a decent piece on them recently.

Thomas_...

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37472910

Sturgeon to link Brexit to austerity in London speech

Nicola Sturgeon is to make a speech in London linking the Brexit vote to the UK government's austerity policies.

The first minister will tell the Institute of Directors that the vote to leave the EU was in part "born of inequality" in communities UK-wide.

Theresa May has argued that the UK could thrive after leaving the EU by becoming a leader in free trade.

Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones will also address the conference at the Royal Albert Hall via a video clip.

A senior government minister is expected to speak, as is former chancellor Norman Lamont, former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, and businesswoman and peer Martha Lane Fox.

Ms Sturgeon has argued that the UK could face a "lost decade" if it opts for a "hard Brexit", distancing itself from the single market.
...

BlitzKrieg

http://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-uk-will-help-turkey-join-the-eu/?utm_content=bufferad56f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


I actually dont know how this counts towards the brexit vote?

I mean it could be a promise by the no campaign actually being fulfilled.

By them intentionally doing it themselves and then running away.


though it still wont happen there are plenty of countries ahead of the UK who will block Turkish ascension for the foreseeable future which was the case during brexit and remains the case now.

Interesting article on the front page of this morning's Financial Times, with an interview by the CEO of Axel Springer.

One of Germany's most prominent businessmen, he said that "Britain was bound to experience short-term pain as a consequence of its June 23 vote to quit the EU, “but in three to five years from now, my bet would be that England will be better off than continental Europe”".

https://www.ft.com/content/ec53be7c-819d-11e6-bc52-0c7211ef3198

Speaking to the Financial Times, Mr Döpfner said he saw Britain moving towards a “more free market-oriented model, while Europe is step by step transforming into a transfer union” — with funds being channelled from successful states to the struggling ones. “And that can put a lot of investors off.”

“If Britain can create an alternative here, I think that is highly attractive,” he said, in an interview at Axel Springer’s headquarters in Berlin.

In the short term, Mr Döpfner said the UK would be buffeted by currency fluctuations and turbulence in its property market. But in the long term it would be better off outside the EU.

I think there's no doubt about the short-term costs of Brexit, given the UK's disastrous combination of weak manufacturing capacity and its trade deficit in goods. Eventually though, that problem will solve itself. Capital loves an opportunity. I think this is one of the more honest, baggage-free predictions.

Scofflaw

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

http://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-uk-will-help-turkey-join-the-eu/?utm_content=bufferad56f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


I actually dont know how this counts towards the brexit vote?

I mean it could be a promise by the no campaign actually being fulfilled.

By them intentionally doing it themselves and then running away.


though it still wont happen there are plenty of countries ahead of the UK who will block Turkish ascension for the foreseeable future which was the case during brexit and remains the case now.

Slightly confused here. Wasn't the spectre of Turkish accession to the EU used by the Leave side as a reason for leaving?

Helping Turkey in its EU bid is then....what? Is it a U-turn, or something entirely non-Euclidean?

confused,
Scofflaw

Bob24

Scofflaw wrote: »

Slightly confused here. Wasn't the spectre of Turkish accession to the EU used by the Leave side as a reason for leaving?

Helping Turkey in its EU bid is then....what? Is it a U-turn, or something entirely non-Euclidean?

confused,
Scofflaw

Simple I think: they didn't want Turkey to be part of the EU as long as the UK is also part of it; but as long as the UK is on the way out they would rather see Turkey in the EU.

A bit like the US : they would never sign any deal which allows free movement of Turkish citizens to the US, but they are happy to encourage European Countries to do that.

BlitzKrieg

Scofflaw wrote: »

Slightly confused here. Wasn't the spectre of Turkish accession to the EU used by the Leave side as a reason for leaving?

Helping Turkey in its EU bid is then....what? Is it a U-turn, or something entirely non-Euclidean?

confused,
Scofflaw

you're not alone. Guy Verhofsdtat who is going to be representing the european parliament in negotiations echoes your thoughts

So Boris Johnson wants to help Turkey join the EU, after he just campaigned for the UK to leave the EU on the basis that Turkey would be joining the EU in the near future. The UK defence Minister today says the UK Government will block EU efforts to enhance its security capabilities, even though the UK is leaving the EU, yet they say they want an enhanced security relationship with the EU after Brexit. Liam Fox, the UK trade minister, has indicated the UK will leave the EU's customs union, because he thinks other markets are more important, yet his Prime Minister tells us that the EU27 "will sign" an ambitious trade deal with the UK. Politics never fails to surprise me!

djpbarry

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I think there's no doubt about the short-term costs of Brexit, given the UK's disastrous combination of weak manufacturing capacity and its trade deficit in goods. Eventually though, that problem will solve itself.

How?

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Capital loves an opportunity.

Indeed it does. But I fail to see how the poorer regions of the UK will present greater opportunities outside the EU?