Brexit Referendum Superthread

Lemming

I stand corrected on the notion of 'extended family members'.

Edit: the rest of the criteria regards movement still stands and under whose remit the decision to allow entry rests.

Bob24

Lemming wrote: »

Edit: the rest of the criteria regards movement still stands and under whose remit the decision to allow entry rests.

Yes, but this means the UK doesn't have full control, since as long as you fulfill these criteria (defined by the EU directive and not by UK authorities) their only choice is to accept the application.

Again I know it very well and have first hand experience as the directive made it pretty easy for my non-EU partner to automatically gain 5 years full residence status in Ireland whereas she wouldn't have been entitled to anything under national Irish immigration laws.

A Dub in Glasgo

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes, but this means the UK doesn't have full control, since as long as you fulfill these criteria (defined by the EU directive and not by UK authorities) their only choice is to accept the application.

Again I know it very well as the directive made it pretty easy for my non-EU partner to automatically gain 5 years full residence status in Ireland whereas she wouldn't have been entitled to anything under national Irish immigration laws.

Whether it is a good thing for force member states to issue these cards can be argued, but it is a fact that aside from the security threat exception you have mentioned they are not given any choice.

How much of the non-EU immigration in the UK consists of the criteria you describe?

Lemming

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes, but this means the UK doesn't have full control, since as long as you fulfill these criteria (defined by the EU directive and not by UK authorities) their only choice is to accept the application.

Again I know it very well and have first hand experience as the directive made it pretty easy for my non-EU partner to automatically gain 5 years full residence status in Ireland whereas she wouldn't have been entitled to anything under national Irish immigration laws.

From what you have just described, she was granted access because the Irish state deemed her relationship to you to not be fraudulent; EU directives need not apply. Her point of entry is Ireland, which is also your - assuming that you are an Irish passport holder - home member state. That means the decision to grant her leave to remain falls under Irish national law. Not EU directives. As is outlined by the directive in question.

Edit: if you were to then travel to France (for example), she would be allowed access under the directive based on your residency criteria. But only for up to 90 days unless your move was for work or study purposes without a further application being made for extension of that stay.

Bob24

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

How much of the non-EU immigration in the UK consists of the criteria you describe?

If you find figures I'd be interested to know, but unfortunately I couldn't find any.

But it is definitely not as uncommon as you might originally think.

The difference of aspect of the Irish residence card for an EU citizen family member is very subtle compared to a regular residence card, and at first I was afraid airline staff and border control officers wouldn't recognise it (for visa free travel), but having used it to travel to a dozen EU counties there was no issue and they had all obviously see these many times before.

Bob24

Lemming wrote: »

From what you have just described, she was granted access because the Irish state deemed her relationship to you to not be fraudulent; EU directives need not apply. Her point of entry is Ireland, which is also your - assuming that you are an Irish passport holder - home member state. That means the decision to grant her leave to remain falls under Irish national law. Not EU directives. As is outlined by the directive in question.

Edit: if you were to then travel to France (for example), she would be allowed access under the directive based on your residency criteria. But only for up to 90 days unless your move was for work or study purposes.

Honestly I know my personal story, it is futile to try to rewrite it ;-) (and I have spent lot of time reviewing national and European laws as I was personally involved and became a bit of a geek about the subject even afterwards)

I was not Irish at the time. There was no way for her to apply under national law and her residence card does specify "EUFam" (which means it was issued under the directive).

A Dub in Glasgo

So for it to apply does the initiating resident need to be a citizen of the country of residence (in this case, the UK) and then apply using EU criteria written into law for a member of extended family who is a citizen of a non-EU country? or does it apply to any EU country citizen resident in any EU country to apply to bring in a family member who is a non-EU citizen?

Bob24

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

So for it to apply does the initiating resident need to be a citizen of the country of residence (in this case, the UK) and then apply using EU criteria written into law for a member of extended family who is a citizen of a non-EU country? or does it apply to any EU country citizen resident in any EU country to apply to bring in a family member who is a non-EU citizen?

For the directive to apply either of the two conditions must be valid:
- either the EU citizen must NOT reside in their country of citizenship (meaning a German citizen who is working/studying/self sufficient in the UK can apply for their non-EU family members)
- or they must be returning to their country of citizenship after living in another EU country with their family (so a UK citizen which lived in Ireland for 6 months and is returning to the UK with their family who had Irish residence cards can apply for equivalent cards in the UK under the directive, and UK authorities can't refuse to grant them unless they prove the relaxationship is not legit or their is a security threat)

If you have never left you home country you don't quality. This actually leads to a strange situation whereby people go live in another country for a few month and then return home, specifically for the purpose of getting that type of card (if you look at online immigration forums you will see Ireland is receiving a decent number of UK citizens and their non EU family members who are doing that to work around UK national law which otherwise wouldn't allow them to get a uk residence card).

BoJack Horseman

desperation point for the 'remain' side.

From threats of World War 3, the end of Western civilisation, to today's threat to tax people more if they dare vote the wrong way...

Well, fishermen campaigning for 'leave' were leading a flotilla up the Thames to campaign for a return to sovereignty over fish stocks.

Multi-millionaire Bob Geldof & his posh chums decided to meet them on the water..



There really is a Marie Antoinette vibe at play here.
No wonder the Brexit side is leading if this is the level 'remain' stoop to.

Chips Lovell

Rather than put the issue to bed once and for all, it looks like the referendum has polarised Britain even further. Both sides now are so entrenched that its difficult to see anyone admitting they were wrong once the outcome and its effects are known.

For example, if exit resulted in negative consequences, they won't be blamed on the decision to leave, but instead be blamed on the EU (e.g. EU refusing to give Britain an immediate trade deal on favourable terms).

whatstherush

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

desperation point for the 'remain' side.

From threats of World War 3, the end of Western civilisation, to today's threat to tax people more if they dare vote the wrong way...

Well, fishermen campaigning for 'leave' were leading a flotilla up the Thames to campaign for a return to sovereignty over fish stocks.

Multi-millionaire Bob Geldof & his posh chums decided to meet them on the water..



There really is a Marie Antoinette vibe at play here.
No wonder the Brexit side is leading if this is the level 'remain' stoop to.

So have you anything to say about the threats of 70m Turks moving to the UK, 1000s of jihadis coming in with refuges, Muslim rape gangs, leave.EU linking Orlando attack to brexit, A straight out ****ing lie, that the EU costs 350m a week or does your confirmation bias filter all that out? #SixOfOne

A Dub in Glasgo

This referendum campaign is a farce from both sides and it is galling to think about what was said of the Scottish Referendum campaign when compared to this lot

Bob24

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Rather than put the issue to bed once and for all, it looks like the referendum has polarised Britain even further. Both sides now are so entrenched that its difficult to see anyone admitting they were wrong once the outcome and its effects are known.

My thoughts as well. Whatever the outcome of the referendum is, almost 50% of the population will be extremely unhappy and frustrated with it.

I suspect that if the result is a stay vote there will be attacks on the rules were implemented to favour a yes vote, and pressure from Conservative voters on their party to organise a re-run wit different rules in some time (and also possible a slip within labour as a decent chunk of their voters are not on the same line as heir leadership either).

And if it is a leave, I suspect everything will be also be done to invalidate the result and if not possible prevent the talks with the EU from happening as much as possible, to delay the process and hope public opinion will get frustrated and changes its mind.

In an case I doubt the whole thing will be settled after the vote.

Theatre and Showboating all round.

Substance lacking on both sides.

BoJack Horseman

whatstherush wrote: »

So have you anything to say about the threats of 70m Turks moving to the UK, 1000s of jihadis coming in with refuges, Muslim rape gangs

I will always be against jihadis & rape gangs

So, we can agree to disagree

A Dub in Glasgo

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I will always be against jihadis & rape gangs

Surely 'exaggerating' is missing between against and jihadis

A Dub in Glasgo

djpbarry

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Rather than put the issue to bed once and for all, it looks like the referendum has polarised Britain even further. Both sides now are so entrenched that its difficult to see anyone admitting they were wrong once the outcome and its effects are known.

For example, if exit resulted in negative consequences, they won't be blamed on the decision to leave, but instead be blamed on the EU (e.g. EU refusing to give Britain an immediate trade deal on favourable terms).

And if Remain win, the Leave campaign will point to the sizeable number of voters who wish to leave the EU - the issue isn't going to go away.

I tell you what really worries me about a Leave win - the anti-immigration brigade will feel that their views have been legitimised. Things could turn nasty.

Chips Lovell

Yep, the longer this goes on, the more it feels like just the beginning, rather than the end.

Bob24

djpbarry wrote: »

Things could turn nasty.

What type of nasty things are you referring to?

Bob24

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Yep, the longer this goes on, the more it feels like just the beginning, rather than the end.

Yes, and not just for the UK in my opinion. The same divide amongst the population is building up in many European countries (Ireland being one of the few countries where while it does exist the divide is not that big compared to others).

timmyntc

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes, and not just for the UK in my opinion. The same divide amongst the population is building up in many European countries (Ireland being one of the few countries where while it does exist the divide is not that big compared to others).

Yes, luckily Ireland is still largely in the centre of the political spectrum. However with the rising far-left (AAA-PBP, Various professional protest groups, Anti-FA) it will polarise things further just like in Europe and America; when one left/right wing political party surges, so too does a party of opposite polarity.

Newton's law of politics, every action...

Chips Lovell

Britain may be helpfully volunteering as the guinea pig. If Brexit works out alright for them, it could prompt other countries towards the door.

An Ciarraioch

Bob24 wrote: »

What type of nasty things are you referring to?

Well, UKIP will have become one of the first parties to make their original mission redundant, so to differentiate themselves from the Tories, they will ramp up the anti-immigrant rhetoric even more than they have in recent years. See the Northern League in Italy, which began as a federalist party, but now directs its political attention against Muslims, black immigrants, etc.

Bob24

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Britain may be helpfully volunteering as the guinea pig. If Brexit works out alright for them, it could prompt other countries towards the door.

That is why while I would probably vote to remain if I was British for fear of the unknown, as an outsider I am kind of secretly hoping for them to leave to see how it goes ;-) (I know we are not complete outsiders due yo our tights with the UK, but I personally think even if to is a failure for Britain Brexit could be an opportunity for Ireland anyway)

Chips Lovell

Yes, I reckon in the short term it would be hugely disruptive for Ireland but beneficial in the long term if the British choose to leave.

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Well, UKIP will have become one of the first parties to make their original mission redundant, so to differentiate themselves from the Tories, they will ramp up the anti-immigrant rhetoric even more than they have in recent years. See the Northern League in Italy, which began as a federalist party, but now directs its political attention against Muslims, black immigrants, etc.

My political analysis would be different. If they want to replace the Conservative party (not easy but if Brexit happens they have the potential to do so), they need to broaden their voter's base. I think it means being faithful to what they have been until now to consolidate their current electorate, but at the same time look as respectable as possible to attract conservative and even some labour brexiters (increasingly extreme rhetoric would prevent this from happening).

Anyway we shall live and see.

Jep Gambardella

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Britain may be helpfully volunteering as the guinea pig. If Brexit works out alright for them, it could prompt other countries towards the door.

Which, perversely, must factor into and undoubtedly influence the EU's decisions when reaching any trade agreements / concessions with an "external" UK.

The EU facilitating 'too good' a deal could spell its own downfall.

Bob24

When even the Guardian is publishing a call to leave, it is not looking good for the remain campaign ...

FAIr-play to them for including different opinions though, and it shows why this referendum got a bit out of control from Cameron's perspective. While the journalist is clearly distancing himself from the likes of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, he is saying it doesn't matter to him to be voting like them, as is he doesn't think the EU is a left wing project anyway. Cameron probably expected challenges within his own camp and from UKIP, but underestimated that to destroy something you don't need a common project or view of the world and that a large part of the left would join in. No matter the ideological reasons behind it at the end of the day there are no left leavers and right leavers - when you count the ballot papers, left wing or right wing all leave votes end up in the same bucket.

whatever_

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The above there highlights your total misunderstanding of the fundamentals of trade, bilateral and multilateral agreements. While I agree that the risks of leave have probably been overstated, the idea that it carries little or no risk, or is indeed riskier than remain are totally preposterous. The idea that the EU will bend over backwards to accommodate Britain in order to protect it as a market is daft, the only country to do that will be us.

Most of Britain's imports are not easily replaceable and not mobile, food, fuel, machinery and they do not have the capability to produce them domestically, so in a post exit world they will still need to import them. Purchasing from Europe will be reduced for sure, but not eliminated. That 8bn of British imports from the EU you speak of won't go to zero overnight.

Most of Britain's exports are easily replaceable, since they are services. Financial services relating to the European market would almost certainly decentralise from London over time, perhaps to Paris, Frankfurt or even Dublin. Every country that imports services from Britain will be wanting to replace this import with a domestic equivalent, and will push for this through the EU as it is in the common national interests of the national governments of the EU. Trade will of course continue but British exports will be depressed.

The main problem for Britain is that the EU market is an order of magnitude more important to Britain than the British market is to the rest of the EU.

I totally disagree with what you are saying here.

I'm not suggesting that Britain's surplus of imports over exports will go to zero overnight. And to argue that demand for Britain's monthly exports of STG 30Bn is "soft" while demand for their imports of STG 40Bn is "hard" is not evidenced by the monthly trade statistics. The UK's main imports and exports include cars and petroleum products (yes, both number among our main imports and exports). Furthermore, to assert that "demand for services is elastic", while "demand for products is inelastic" shows a misunderstanding of basic economics. The Stringer-Bell** argument does not apply here. If demand for Britain's exports were really elastic then, because we have a floating exchange rate, Britain's monthly exports to the EU would fluctuate wildly (and they don't).

This is business, it is about money, and Britain's STG8-10Bn a month deficit with the EU gives it massive leverage.

Some people seem to be setting great importance on the need for trade deals. There are people here who believe that the EU will stop trading with Britain if it leaves. There are people here who do not realise that in the absence of a trade deal, Britain can trade under GATT, and this will mean an average of 5% tariffs. So I am saying that from the point of view of Britain's exports, that could be accommodated by a small movement in exchange rates.

You have not addressed any of this.

**“You know what we got here? We got an elastic product. You know what that means? It means that when people can go elsewhere for they printing and copying done they gonna do it. You acting like we got an inelastic product, and we don’t.”