Brexit Referendum Superthread

imitation

I wonder what the impact of scraping a stay vote by 1 or 2% will be. I have heard a few people say the referendum will put the question away for a generation, but if Britian appears to be on the fence and is just a government change and another referendum away from leaving how can the rest of the EU have any confidence in them ?

Bob24

imitation wrote: »

I have heard a few people say the referendum will put the question away for a generation,

I think many people would agree to say these statements seemed right a few month ago, but are now looking increasingly incorrect as the campaign is showing what seems to be irreconcilable opinions within the population. I actually think whatever the result is, it might trigger changes in the political landscape (possible creation of a new leave/remain divide on top of the traditional left/right divide).

Chips Lovell

Labour MP Jo Cox shot outside her constituency clinic. Unclear yet what her attacker's motive was.

Amerika

As an outsider (USA) looking in, what do the people here on boards.ie consider the most important factor (or factors) behind a vote in favor for the Brexit? Is it cost, immigration, social services, economics, politics, negotiating power, or something else? I must say the media reporting here in the states on the Brexit is sorely lacking.

whatstherush

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Labour MP Jo Cox shot outside her constituency clinic. Unclear yet what her attacker's motive was.

Reports he was shouting Britain First as he attacked her, but it's very early days so I wouldn't take it as gospel yet.

Chips Lovell

Reports that your man was arrested, so they should have an idea soon enough who he is.

Mr.Nice Guy

Amerika wrote: »

As an outsider (USA) looking in, what do the people here on boards.ie consider the most important factor (or factors) behind a vote in favor for the Brexit? Is it cost, immigration, social services, economics, politics, negotiating power, or something else? I must say the media reporting here in the states on the Brexit is sorely lacking.

I think it will be a mostly emotive factor that drives the decisions. A lot of voters in England believe there are too many immigrants and that the country won't be able to cope if the numbers continue. The remain side will point out that immigrants are needed to keep the NHS going and so on, and it will usually descend into both sides throwing figures at one another. We're at a point now where I sense the average person is exasperated with the various numbers thrown around and I think it will come down to a gut feeling on the day and because of that I think it's going to be very close.

A point on NI: it just dawned on me I haven't heard UUP leader Mike Nesbitt feature hardly at all, and yet the UUP are supposed to be in favour of a remain vote. I think his party must be split on the issue and he's scared of causing any problems because he's been practically non-existent from what I can see. Dunno what any NI voters think?

Bit cynical

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

A point on NI: it just dawned on me I haven't heard UUP leader Mike Nesbitt feature hardly at all, and yet the UUP are supposed to be in favour of a remain vote. I think his party must be split on the issue and he's scared of causing any problems because he's been practically non-existent from what I can see. Dunno what any NI voters think?

Not an NI voter but I think it is possible that he doesn't want to lose brexit supporters to the DUP.

Rjd2

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I think it will be a mostly emotive factor that drives the decisions. A lot of voters in England believe there are too many immigrants and that the country won't be able to cope if the numbers continue. The remain side will point out that immigrants are needed to keep the NHS going and so on, and it will usually descend into both sides throwing figures at one another. We're at a point now where I sense the average person is exasperated with the various numbers thrown around and I think it will come down to a gut feeling on the day and because of that I think it's going to be very close.

A point on NI: it just dawned on me I haven't heard UUP leader Mike Nesbitt feature hardly at all, and yet the UUP are supposed to be in favour of a remain vote. I think his party must be split on the issue and he's scared of causing any problems because he's been practically non-existent from what I can see. Dunno what any NI voters think?

Absolutely spot on.

I know a few British people and they have pretty much decided to tune out until the day of voting, its not because they have no interest in politics or don't think this vote is unimportant, far from it, but both sides have been horrible with doomsday predictions. Zillion immigrants if you vote to stay vs recession for everyone if you vote to leave.:p

And to top it off lets look at the main participants...

Gove/Boris v Cameron/Osbourne

No thanks, and then you have Farage and an unexcited Corbyn involved.

djpbarry

Bob24 wrote: »

What type of nasty things are you referring to?

Well , as alluded to above, an anti-immigration stance will be politically acceptable. Actually, it could be argued that it already is.

Bob24 wrote: »

If they want to replace the Conservative party (not easy but if Brexit happens they have the potential to do so), they need to broaden their voter's base. I think it means being faithful to what they have been until now to consolidate their current electorate, but at the same time look as respectable as possible to attract conservative and even some labour brexiters (increasingly extreme rhetoric would prevent this from happening).

But that doesn’t mean the anti-immigration nonsense goes away, it just gets dressed up in fancier language, which is arguably more nefarious.

djpbarry

whatever_ wrote: »

There are people here who believe that the EU will stop trading with Britain if it leaves.

No there are not.

whatever_ wrote: »

So I am saying that from the point of view of Britain's exports, that could be accommodated by a small movement in exchange rates.

But that would make imports more expensive, widening the UK’s trade deficit still further.

whatever_

whatever_ wrote: »

If demand for Britain's exports were really elastic then, because we have a floating exchange rate, Britain's monthly exports to the EU would fluctuate wildly (and they don't).

Oh my goodness, the amount of economic clangers in this thread is staggering... and that applies to both sides.

If your contention is correct, and exchange-rate variability of export prices have scarce bearing on export volumes (which in fairness, is fairly well established in the academic literature) then a BREXIT will do little to improve UK exports!

Lets also remember that you cannot take the above elasticity of exports in isolation.

A more intelligent analysis of the economic effect upon UK income of a BREXIT, would be to ascertain whether, after a BREXIT and a depreciation of the GB£, the volume of UK exports would react sufficiently to offset the increased import prices.

The UK has an estimated long-run price elasticity of imports in volume terms of 0.08.

Therefore, in plainspeak, a 10% rise in import prices will only decrease demand by about 1%, meaning the UK is hugely vulnerable to exchange rate variability in import prices UNLESS UNLESS UNLESS the UK's foreign trade in volume terms has an equal, or greater, capacity to offset import prices.

In short, you have scored a spectacular own goal. You've just defeated a case for Brexit.

(And this is coming from a proud European who is hoping dearly for BREXIT)

whatever_

djpbarry wrote: »

No there are not.

Thankfully, I can now agree with you.

djpbarry wrote: »

But that would make imports more expensive, widening the UK’s trade deficit still further.

Agreed, which means that (in the event of Brexit) Britain becomes an even more important "customer" of the 27 than it is already. But these are small changes. I was working off 5% for GATT, but I hear that the average level of tariff actually paid in the case of the EU is 3% . Britain will pay for a trade deal, but it does not really need one, and it has sufficient negotiating leverage to achieve a fair deal.

djpbarry

whatever_ wrote: »

Thankfully, I can now agree with you.

What? You said that “There are people here who believe that the EU will stop trading with Britain if it leaves.” I said that is not true. Now you are agreeing with me?

whatever_ wrote: »

Agreed, which means that (in the event of Brexit) Britain becomes an even more important "customer" of the 27 than it is already.

You’re not making an ounce of sense – the UK can become an even more important customer to the EU by manipulating exchange rates?!?

VincePP

Financial and currency markets as well as betting are starting to swing back to "stay".


I think the Leave campaign peaked too early and yesterday's shooting brought home to people that changing could bring about violent side effects that they don't want. British nationalism has a very nasty agressive side to it - soccer hoolganism is one example and yesterday's murder seemed to wake people up to the fact that a lot of the looney and hard left / hard right types are all for brexit and when it comes to it, the more educated voter will not vote with the extreme left/right and looney groups

Once people start doubting change, that side loses.

Sam Russell

VincePP wrote: »

Financial and currency markets as well as betting are starting to swing back to "stay".


I think the Leave campaign peaked too early and yesterday's shooting brought home to people that changing could bring about violent side effects that they don't want. British nationalism has a very nasty agressive side to it - soccer hoolganism is one example and yesterday's murder seemed to wake people up to the fact that a lot of the looney and hard left / hard right types are all for brexit and when it comes to it, the more educated voter will not vote with the extreme left/right and looney groups

Once people start doubting change, that side loses.

Let us hope the loonies lose (and I include Boris in that). The more considered voter will hopefully realise that a leap into the unknown is dangerous.

djpbarry

VincePP wrote: »

Financial and currency markets as well as betting are starting to swing back to "stay".

I did notice that, amidst the polls continuing to show a swing to Leave, the betting markets rapidly followed suit, before shifting slightly back toward Remain.

A couple of weeks ago, bookies were offering about an 80% chance of a Remain vote. That dropped rapidly to the high 50s earlier this week on the back of the swing in the polls, but it's crept back up to the low 60s now, putting the betting markets roughly in line with where they were in December/January.

whatever_

djpbarry wrote: »

What? You said that “There are people here who believe that the EU will stop trading with Britain if it leaves.” I said that is not true. Now you are agreeing with me?
You’re not making an ounce of sense – the UK can become an even more important customer to the EU by manipulating exchange rates?!?

Sorry, that was a mistake.

My basic argument is that with tariff rates at 3-5% and with a large trade deficit with the EU, Britain will not be forced to agree an unfavourable trade deal. As you know, I am arguing against a line that says 60 million people cannot possibly achieve a fair deal if they are negotiating with 500 million people and against a line that says Britain only exports services.

whatever_

VincePP wrote: »

Financial and currency markets as well as betting are starting to swing back to "stay".


I think the Leave campaign peaked too early and yesterday's shooting brought home to people that changing could bring about violent side effects that they don't want. British nationalism has a very nasty agressive side to it - soccer hoolganism is one example and yesterday's murder seemed to wake people up to the fact that a lot of the looney and hard left / hard right types are all for brexit and when it comes to it, the more educated voter will not vote with the extreme left/right and looney groups

Once people start doubting change, that side loses.

I don't think that the murder of Jo Cox will have any impact on the Referendum outcome. I do agree that the Leave Campaign has probably peaked too early.

I do think that the murder of Jo Cox does once again highlight the poor state of Mental Health Services in Britain. I also think that it highlights the growing immoderate behaviour in society - for example the very personal attacks that politicians make on one another.

If that murderer was anything though, he was probably a keyboard warrior. I think this episode should remind us all (and I include myself in this) to adopt a more moderate tone in online discussions. There are only actually a few of us engaged in this debate, and if we were sitting on a bus discussing all this we would not be "pouring vitriol on one another" just because we hold differing views.

whatever_

Sam Russell wrote: »

Let us hope the loonies lose (and I include Boris in that). The more considered voter will hopefully realise that a leap into the unknown is dangerous.

Boris is not a looney. Some intelligent voters are conservative and are risk aversive and are inclined to stick with what they know. Other intelligent voters are radical and are prepared to take calculated risks to achieve a better future.

Mec27

Watching Brexit the movie, I'm Pro the European project, belief integration is a good thing but think EU needs reform(more power with parliament) but this is a good watch, even just to get an insight into the leave side mindset.

Bob24

Sam Russell wrote: »

The more considered voter will hopefully realise that a leap into the unknown is dangerous.

I am not arguing one way of the other here, but to be fair while relevant that argument alone is a bit weak.

It can eaaily be turned around to say the alternative offered to a leap into the unknown is to maintain the status quo and sleepwalk to a catastrophe.

(And at the hand of the day whether the status quo is a serious enough problem that it is worth the risk is very subjective)

Bob24

Sam Russell wrote: »

The more considered voter will hopefully realise that a leap into the unknown is dangerous.

I am not arguing one way of the other here, but to be fair while relevant that argument alone is a bit weak.

It can easily be turned around to say the alternative offered to a leap into the unknown is to maintain the status quo and sleepwalk into a catastrophe.

(And at the end of the day whether the status quo is a serious enough problem that it is worth the risk is very subjective)

Sam Russell

whatever_ wrote: »

Boris is not a looney.

Boris is pro-European. He was born in Brussels. He is ambitious and sees the Brexit campaign as an opportunity to grab power from Cameron - you can see his body language gives him away. The smirk of the buffoon gives him away - he does not believe in what he says.

If Cameron wins, he needs a night of the long knives to rid his Cabernet of these troublesome Brexiteers. How can he trust them or them him?

whatever_

Bob24 wrote: »

(And at the hand of the day whether the status quo is a serious enough problem that it is worth the risk is very subjective)

It is highly subjective and worth the risk if you are

1. struggling along with a zero hour contract job / low pay and cannot find somewhere to live

2. trying to commute into London after driving your kids to a primary school 30 miles from your home

3. Working at Port Talbot and in threat of losing your job as a result of cheap Chinese steel (and the EU prevents your government from saving the last remaining steel production facility in the UK)

4. ill and trying to access NHS services

We are all affected by the EU in one way or another and that is why a Referendum is the fairest way of dealing with this.

stefanovich

Sam Russell wrote:

Boris is pro-European. He was born in Brussels. He is ambitious and sees the Brexit campaign as an opportunity to grab power from Cameron - you can see his body language gives him away. The smirk of the buffoon gives him away - he does not believe in what he says.

So his body language tells you he is a liar and a fraud?
I hope you put that unique gift to good use.

djpbarry

Bob24 wrote: »

It can eaaily be turned around to say the alternative offered to a leap into the unknown is to maintain the status quo and sleepwalk to a catastrophe.

Well, no, that’s not the choice on offer.

The choice is the UK can remain in the EU and help to steer it, or withdraw and have no say in its future direction.

djpbarry

Sam Russell wrote: »

Boris is pro-European. He was born in Brussels.

And he has Turkish ancestry.

djpbarry

whatever_ wrote: »

My basic argument is that with tariff rates at 3-5% and with a large trade deficit with the EU, Britain will not be forced to agree an unfavourable trade deal.

It can’t possibly be any more favourable than that which currently exists, can it?

whatever_ wrote: »

As you know, I am arguing against a line that says 60 million people cannot possibly achieve a fair deal if they are negotiating with 500 million people and against a line that says Britain only exports services.

Nobody is arguing that the UK only exports services, but services are a major export. I believe the UK exports about £50 – 60 billion in services to Europe every year.

whatever_ wrote: »

1. struggling along with a zero hour contract job / low pay and cannot find somewhere to live

Zero hour contracts have nothing to do with the EU.

whatever_ wrote: »

trying to commute into London after driving your kids to a primary school 30 miles from your home

The London property boom has nothing to do with the EU.

whatever_ wrote: »

Working at Port Talbot and in threat of losing your job as a result of cheap Chinese steel (and the EU prevents your government from saving the last remaining steel production facility in the UK)

I thought the UK were going to do all sorts of free trade deals with everywhere in the world in the event of Brext? Won’t that mean lots of cheap Chinese steal?

whatever_ wrote: »

ill and trying to access NHS services

Once again, nothing to do with the EU.

whatever_ wrote: »

We are all affected by the EU in one way or another and that is why a Referendum is the fairest way of dealing with this.

Referenda are almost always a terrible idea.

Amerika

The Brexit and Bremain issue if finally getting some traction here in the states.

It is being reported that if the vote comes in favor of a Brexit, that David Cameron s position as Prime Minister in jeopardy, and that he might be leaving the post in as little as two weeks. And if it were to happen that former London Mayor Boris Johnson is considered the favorite to replace him.

I ve seen reports on some colorful quotes from Johnson:

On becoming Prime Minister:
My chances of being PM are about as good as the chances of finding Elvis on Mars, or my being reincarnated as an olive.

On why he voted for David Cameron:
I m backing David Cameron s campaign out of pure, cynical self-interest.

On cake:
My policy on cake is pro having it and pro eating it.

On how to vote:
Voting Tory will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3.

On the Lib Dems:
The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition.

On drugs:
I think I was once given cocaine but I sneezed so it didn t go up my nose. In fact, it may have been icing sugar.

Looks like the Brits might just have their own version of Donald Trump with which to deal with. The first meeting between Prime Minister Johnson and President Trump could be one for the history books.