Brexit Referendum Superthread

KingBrian2

captainspeed wrote: »

One thing that doesn't seem to have been considered over the past few days in this thread is the Trump effect. For starters, we can safely dispel any notion that 'impossible' things, such as Trump's election, can't happen. There is a referendum in Italy next month, which is widely predicted to be defeated, and Renzi is likely to resign, so there could be elections in Italy in the New Year. Although, there are two main anti-EU parties (Five Star and Northern Leage), so the pro-EU side ought to win.

There will be a re-run of the Austrian election soon, which is a toss-up between the Greens and some far-right party. There are elections in France and the Netherlands next year, where after all that's happened, it would not be impossible for the FN in France and Wilders in the Netherlands, to win. If the 'impossible' in these elections happens, then we've definitely got the spectacle of the French voting to leave the EU, while the Austrians and the Dutch could hold referendums on the subject. If all of those countries were to leave the EU, there wouldn't be much left of it, and the whole Brexit negotiations might become a bit academic at that point.

Once we all get to know what the people don't want can we then get back to what the people do want.

recedite

Here's a few things I want.
Harmonised technical standards and CE marks; Mostly done.
Have the same electrical plugs and sockets. Not done.

Free trade; mostly done.
Buy a Citroen car in Ireland for the same price as in France or UK; Not done.

Financial system, common currency; mostly done.
Me pay the same low interest rate on my mortgage as a German. Not done.

When the ECB pumps up a bubble economy in one country, share the burden of the resultant banking collapse throughout the eurozone; Not done.

Reduce internal borders in the EU while strengthening the external border; Only the first part done, which is worse than nothing being done at all.

Unelected eurocrats making foreign policy, planning a centrally controlled EU army etc...no thanks.

Peregrinus

recedite wrote: »

CETA eliminates 98% of trade tariffs, but without a free movement of people entitlement.
EEA eliminates 100% of trade tariffs (except VRT :pac: ) requires free movement of people capital etc. and demands a membership fee.

You left out; EEA requires acceptance and implementation of EU market regulation. Which is a huge thing; it's the vast body of regulatory law to which Brexiters took such exception.

But it's an important part of the single market; a product manufacture in Aberdeen can be trucked to Athens and sold to a consumer there without any kind of inspection along the way, because it's known to have been produced inc compliance with the standards required in the single market. And we're not just talking about product safety standards here; we're also looking at things like the regulation of state aid, labour market standards, etc, etc.

Simply elimnating tariffs, as a free trade deal does, does nothing to prevent unfair competition from state-aided enterprises; it does nothing to prevent dumping; it does nothing to address the problem of goods made with forced or abused labour; it does nothing to ensure product safety or conformity to standards. And so goods imported under a free trade agreement remain liable to inspection; they need customs clearance; they are liable to be impeded if they don't conform to standards, or are considered to be dumped, or whatever.

The bottom line is that a free trade agreement will generally secure you trading terms which are much more favourable than the WTO default, but much less favourable than can be enjoyed by participating in the single market. Depending on the terms of the particular free trade agreement, there's obviously room for movement up and down the scale of favourable/less favourable terms. But the way to get terms as favourable as participation in the single market is, well, to participate in the single market. And if you choose not to do that, you'll inevitably get less favourable terms of trade. That's not a punishment, or a vindictive act; it's simply the choice you have made.

As for why free movement of people is necessary for single market participation, it's simply a question of thinking it through. If a shoemaker in Genoa isn't free to go and make shoes in Glasgow, then shoemakers in Genoa and shoemakers in Glasgow are not operating in a single market. Free movement of labour is required for the single market because, if you haven't got free movement of labour, you haven't got a single market.

Thomas_...

The curiosity of some Brit politicians these days. Ed Miliband who was for all his years as leader of the Labour Party perceived as being the weakest they had for decades and doesn't seem to understand the meaning of a hard Brexit and believes that with simply accepting the Brexit vote would avoid the hard Brexit as if this was only a matter to be decided on the Brits themselves and the new PM who dreams of world leadership by the UK in a somewhat nostalgic BE fashion. She forgets that the times of British world leadership are long gone and that those who have the power now have certainly no interest in this.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37968121

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37966519

How People can be that detached to reality is really beyond me.

Zubeneschamali

captainspeed wrote: »

One thing that doesn't seem to have been considered over the past few days in this thread is the Trump effect.

Clinton lost because her vote dropped off from Obamas, not because Trump got more votes than Romney (he got fewer).

It is possible that the Trump effect will cause the comfortable status quo voter in Europe to get off their ass and vote, now that they see what can happen.

Thomas_...

How the Brexit Referendum result has affected Brit Expats and what they have to say to that. Some of them living in Portugal even has the cheek to back up Brexit, being a migrant down there herself.
http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20161108-the-expats-stranded-by-brexit

Thomas_...

Like in England and Wales after the Brexit Referendum, the bigots in the USA also feel free to air their crap, insult others and feel secure as if their "time has come".

http://metro.co.uk/2016/11/12/hate-crimes-soar-across-the-us-after-donald-trump-elected-6254125/

Charles Babbage

recedite wrote: »

Have the same electrical plugs and sockets. Not done.

There is a very large cost in changing these, which is not jjustified

Buy a Citroen car in Ireland for the same price as in France or UK; Not done.

The car is the same price, the taxes are different.

Financial system, common currency; mostly done.
Me pay the same low interest rate on my mortgage as a German. Not done.

There needs to be common deposit insurance throughout the Euro zone, supported by common regulation standards.

Sam Russell

recedite wrote: »

Here's a few things I want.
Harmonised technical standards and CE marks; Mostly done.
Have the same electrical plugs and sockets. Not done.

I have about 50 switched double 13 amp sockets in my house and a similar number of 13 amp plugs. If it was mandated to change these, it would cost me upwards of at least €5,000 given that I would need the services of a registered electrician. There are 2 million addresses in Ireland which would suggest a likely cost of €10 billion to change over.

How much would the Dart Underground, the Maynooth Dart extension, and Metro North cost combined? I think a lot less - so you could also do the M20 as well for that kind of money.

Some things are not worth doing even slowly. You could start be designing the current 13 Amp socket to take the new Euro-plug (that never happened) but it would take over thirty years before much inroad was made. Meanwhile, a lot of adapters would be sold, and a dangerous interim situation where wrong products would be plugged as the standards are not 100% compatible. [The new standard does not use a 30A ring-main and uses 16A ratings - so would really require us to rewire our homes].

oscarBravo

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The car is the same price, the taxes are different.

VRT is one of those topics that's often pointed to as a reason why we don't have a truly common market - but it's not. If cars were to be manufactured in Ireland, and those cars were VRT-exempt, then it would be protectionist and in breach of single market rules.

Cars are more expensive in Ireland than in France (but cheaper than in Denmark) because of VRT. That's fine - but if French cars were subject to lower taxes in France than German cars were, that would not be.

Zubeneschamali

oscarBravo wrote: »

If cars were to be manufactured in Ireland, and those cars were VRT-exempt, then it would be protectionist and in breach of single market rules.

I don't think it is that simple. For example, we have different tax regimes for wine and beer. If wine is taxed more heavily, can we argue that if wine were manufactured here, it would suffer the same regime, so no problem? Or is this a case of Ireland taxing something not made here, and favouring something which is? How far could we push it, could we tax Brandy (all imported) more than Whiskey? Or (in one extreme) Whisky (all imported) more then Whiskey?

Cars are the opposite extreme, they are all made elsewhere and imported. So is it a coincidence that our taxes on new cars are high, or is it a case of Ireland applying tariffs on expensive imports, to try and displace spending onto Irish produced goods?

After all, a good chunk of Germany's exports are cars, and here we are taxing the crap out of them. If the Germans did the same to whiskey, which we make and they do not, would we be happy?

Fratton Fred

oscarBravo wrote: »

VRT is one of those topics that's often pointed to as a reason why we don't have a truly common market - but it's not. If cars were to be manufactured in Ireland, and those cars were VRT-exempt, then it would be protectionist and in breach of single market rules.

Cars are more expensive in Ireland than in France (but cheaper than in Denmark) because of VRT. That's fine - but if French cars were subject to lower taxes in France than German cars were, that would not be.

I can buy a bottle of wine in France, bring it home and drink it quite happily.

I can buy a television in Germany, bring it home and watch it to my hearts content.

I could buy a boat in Spain, sail it to Dun Laoghaire and potter around Dublin in bay in it to my heart's content.

Why is it, when I buy a car in the UK, I can not enjoy the same freedoms i do with the other luxury goods i buy in europe, despite having paid all applicable taxes in those countries?

oscarBravo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think it is that simple. For example, we have different tax regimes for wine and beer. If wine is taxed more heavily, can we argue that if wine were manufactured here, it would suffer the same regime, so no problem? Or is this a case of Ireland taxing something not made here, and favouring something which is? How far could we push it, could we tax Brandy (all imported) more than Whiskey? Or (in one extreme) Whisky (all imported) more then Whiskey?

Cars are the opposite extreme, they are all made elsewhere and imported. So is it a coincidence that our taxes on new cars are high, or is it a case of Ireland applying tariffs on expensive imports, to try and displace spending onto Irish produced goods?

After all, a good chunk of Germany's exports are cars, and here we are taxing the crap out of them. If the Germans did the same to whiskey, which we make and they do not, would we be happy?

I think if the EC had decided that VRT was a protectionist measure, every country that imposes it (contrary to popular opinion, Ireland is not the only country with such a tax) would have been required to get rid of it by now.

If we imposed different excise duty on whisky versus whiskey, I'd imagine that would raise eyebrows in Brussels for just that reason.

Chips Lovell

That's a a bit like asking if I buy a telly in France and bring it home, why do I have to buy a television licence in Ireland?

oscarBravo

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I can buy a bottle of wine in France, bring it home and drink it quite happily.

I can buy a television in Germany, bring it home and watch it to my hearts content.

I could buy a boat in Spain, sail it to Dun Laoghaire and potter around Dublin in bay in it to my heart's content.

Why is it, when I buy a car in the UK, I can not enjoy the same freedoms i do with the other luxury goods i buy in europe, despite having paid all applicable taxes in those countries?

You can. You just have to pay a registration tax before you can use it, same as you have to pay a TV licence before you can watch your TV.

Zubeneschamali

oscarBravo wrote: »

I think if the EC had decided that VRT was a protectionist measure

I know they have not decided that, but I think there is a good argument to be made that it is a kind of protectionist measure.

Fratton Fred

oscarBravo wrote: »

You can. You just have to pay a registration tax before you can use it, same as you have to pay a TV licence before you can watch your TV.

I have to pay road tax before I can use the car as well

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I know they have not decided that, but I think there is a good argument to be made that it is a kind of protectionist measure.

If we had a motor industry to protect, you could call it protectionist. Without one, its just a revenue stream.

alastair

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I have to pay road tax before I can use the car as well

You'd have to pay that in the UK too (or vehicle tax - essentially the same thing).

Fratton Fred

alastair wrote: »

You'd have to pay that in the UK too (or vehicle tax - essentially the same thing).

As i would a TV licence.

It really bugs me that to use a second hand car bought abroad, you then have to pay an additional tax to bring it in to the state.

alastair

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It really bugs me that to use a second hand car bought abroad, you then have to pay an additional tax to bring it in to the state.

If you were bringing the car to Denmark, Spain, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Malta, Slovenia, Cyprus or Poland, you'd have to pay a tax as well. Which tax doesn't bug you then?

Nody

Coming back to the single market discussion and Liam Fox there's a leaked memo from his meeting in Dublin:

He said he expected to maintain access to the single market, while introducing curbs on immigration – despite EU leaders insisting such a deal will not be possible.

And he is understood to have argued that, if access to the single market is refused, the EU would have to pay compensation to countries, such as South Korea, with which the EU has a free trade deal.

Compensation would have to be paid because the market for South Korea would shrink if Britain was no longer a part of it.

Ms Mitchell O’Connor’s comments are said to have provoked laughter from other Irish ministers, while reflecting concern about British expectations for the EU negotiations.

Details here but seriously if this is the senior leadership going in to negotiate the deal's understanding I almost pity the UK population; almost because they did vote for it after all but damn how stupid can you be...

Chips Lovell

It's original. I'll give him that.

ancapailldorcha

Nody wrote: »

I almost pity the UK population; almost because they did vote for it after all but damn how stupid can you be...

Please bear in mind that over 48% of the voters opted for remain. Brexit passed by little more than the barest minimum required from a binary referendum.

demfad

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Please bear in mind that over 48% of the voters opted for remain. Brexit passed by little more than the barest minimum required from a binary referendum.

A survey shows only 1 in 3 in the UK would give Brexit unconditional support now (apologies if linked already). Perhaps the assessment is now refelcting the (more reliable) data out there regarding the UKs prospects under different kinds of Brexit.

Fratton Fred

alastair wrote: »

If you were bringing the car to Denmark, Spain, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Malta, Slovenia, Cyprus or Poland, you'd have to pay a tax as well. Which tax doesn't bug you then?

all of them bug me equally, they are just a direct scam to get money from people.

If people and goods can move freely, then why can't cars?

alastair

Fratton Fred wrote: »

all of them bug me equally, they are just a direct scam to get money from people.

If people and goods can move freely, then why can't cars?

Cars can, and do, within the EU. You just have to pay taxes on them once you've moved them permanently into a different country. The same is true of that telly you notionally bought in Germany.

Fratton Fred

alastair wrote: »

Cars can, and do, within the EU. You just have to pay taxes on them once you've moved them permanently into a different country. The same is true of that telly you notionally bought in Germany.

so cars are subject to taxes? then that isn't the free movement of goods, is it?

alastair

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so cars are subject to taxes? then that isn't the free movement of goods, is it?

The use of cars are subject to taxation. Same as tellys. Nothing impeding the free movement of goods in that.

Nate--IRL--

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so cars are subject to taxes? then that isn't the free movement of goods, is it?

Doesn't Ireland get fines for this? IIRC the VRT vastly outweighs the fines imposed.

Nate