Brexit Referendum Superthread

alastair

Fratton Fred wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2016/jun/18/eu-vote-brexit-working-people-rents-wages

Meanwhile in the world of data, rather than anecdote: http://www.primeeconomics.org/articles/vrlg17yxed1gjcxtbruxb5q5bppadn

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

New entrants to a market are always cheaper, that us how they access market.

Young people in a country short term have a very low cost of living requirement and will often work longer hours for a lower hourly wage.

Employers will try (and often succeed) in paying a recent immigrant less.

Any other economics 101 lessons you require?

Well done: young people's/single people's costs can be less than older/married people's. If it is a (marginal) issue, there are many ways for a State to protect minimum real earnings. The UK has rarely been interested , and have embraced financial globalisation wholeheartedly, blaming the EU and immigrants and anybody but themselves.
The UK has a chance to help lead a transformation away from the over-dependency on globalised Finance and inflation. Shooting itself on the head by leaving the EU is not the way. Surely you can see this now?

ancapailldorcha

demfad wrote: »

Well done: young people's/single people's costs can be less than older/married people's. If it is a (marginal) issue, there are many ways for a State to protect minimum real earnings. The UK has rarely been interested , and have embraced financial globalisation wholeheartedly, blaming the EU and immigrants and anybody but themselves.
The UK has a chance to help lead a transformation away from the over-dependency on globalised Finance and inflation. Shooting itself on the head by leaving the EU is not the way. Surely you can see this now?

I'd like to note that Gordon Brown did establish a £50 million fund to help those who lost out to Globalisation. The Tories scrapped it sadly.

Fratton Fred

Fratton Fred wrote: »

but there is still an effect?

Correct. A marginal effect. I mean I've written that at least three times now?

What is clear is that if there is any material reduction in someone's wages it is inherently wrong for them to blame this on immigration, as the effect that immigration has on 'downward pressure' is small. As has been agreed pretty much across the board by studies conducted and commissioned by 'pro immigration', 'anti immigration' and 'ambivalent towards immigration' groups.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

People have had their wages pegged back, which is why the labour heart lands seem to have voted in their droves to leave the eu.

However, under scrutiny, it appears likely that anyone who has had their wages pegged back appreciably and has 'blamed' that on immigration have clearly arrived at the wrong scapegoat, given what we know from the above, that immigration's effect on wages is small.

The material and important factors leading to appreciable wage reductions are not explained by immigration.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

Well done: young people's/single people's costs can be less than older/married people's. If it is a (marginal) issue, there are many ways for a State to protect minimum real earnings. The UK has rarely been interested , and have embraced financial globalisation wholeheartedly, blaming the EU and immigrants and anybody but themselves.
The UK has a chance to help lead a transformation away from the over-dependency on globalised Finance and inflation. Shooting itself on the head by leaving the EU is not the way. Surely you can see this now?

do you really think the painter and decorator in Grimsby who is earning the same now as he was ten years ago really gives a **** about the financial services in London?

with this great re-distribution of wealth, who is actually paying for it, because to a lot of people, it just seems to b the rich getting richer and the working class getting poorer.

When Dell went through some wealth "Re-distribution" and closed it factory in Limerick costing thousands of people their jobs, was it Michael Dell re-distributing the wealth, or the people of Limerick?

Who really benefits from the eu, is it the workers that we are told would lose all their rights f it wasn't for the eu, or was it the multi nationals?

Why has the issue of tax harmonisation, or (here's a radical one) a standard minimum wage across the zone, never really got off the ground?

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

but there is still an effect?

People have had their wages pegged back, which is why the labour heart lands seem to have voted in their droves to leave the eu.

Because British governments and politicians (Theresa May as Home secretary) have constantly exagerated the effects of immigration blaming the EU, immigrants anyone but themselves.
The facts are that successive administrations have fostered inequality. There is no comparable issue in European societies with higher rates of immigration that value meritocracy. The issue is inequality and the blame lies at the door of successive British Governments.
The UK decided to position itself so that the 1% would get rich out of the financial bubbles while the rest rotted. Blaming immigrants for this is cowardly and dishonest.

Fratton Fred

Fratton Fred wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2016/jun/18/eu-vote-brexit-working-people-rents-wages

I had actually already posted a pretty apt rebuttal to this guy's anecdotal opinion piece.

Deleted User wrote: »

...
The perils of free trade eh? That some costs (which necessarily some percentage used to accrue to someone as receipts) get reduced. Is it not quite difficult / hypocritical to pursue and espouse protectionist labour policies whilst also seeking out and glorifying the idea of free-trade deals elsewhere? Something I never quite manage to get my head around tbh.

Regarding expections of wage growth, what are these expectations founded on? We have been in a low/no inflation period in recent times. Wages can actually grow in real terms without nominal increases under those circumstances. "Expecting" something without a rational basis for it is not exactly sound is it?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/inflation-cpi
....

First Up

Deleted User wrote:

The material and important factors leading to appreciable wage reductions are not explained by immigration.

You know this; I know this; all the economic analysis confirms it; immigration has been looked at from every angle and the arguments in favour overwhelmingly refute those against.

But none of that can compete with Fred in Blackpool whose window cleaning business has lost out to some likely lads from Plovdiv.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

with this great re-distribution of wealth, who is actually paying for it, because to a lot of people, it just seems to b the rich getting richer and the working class getting poorer.

That's a worldwide issue but it is particularly acute in the UK. The blame lies initially with those that have the power, in the case of the UK that is the British government.
There has been a massive deflation of the world economy since 2008. That is the source of the stagnation in wages etc. The British economic policies help to drive this world globalisation but when the house of cards capsizes, just like the 1930's 'tis all the immigrants fault.
Perhaps it is you who needs the economics 101 lesson.

First Up

First Up wrote: »

You know this; I know this; all the economic analysis confirms it; immigration has been looked at from every angle and the arguments in favour overwhelmingly refute those against.

But none of that can compete with Fred in Blackpool whose window cleaning business has lost out to some likely lads from Plovdiv.

I know. I saw Fratton Fred repost the myth today. No new studies, no new facts. Just the same line, and wanted him to be aware that even anti-immigration places like MigrationWatch disagree with him.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

That's a ridiculous statement.

The common theme, particularly from the labour heart lands, was that enough is enough. Thousands of people in the UK have seen their earnings potential constantly eroded due to a conveyor belt of immigration, whilst having to pay taxes to build the infrastructure in the countries those immigrants are coming from.

For years there has been no complaints, for fear of being labelled racist or xenophobic, but finally the camel's back was broken.

If you ask a lot of Brexiters why they voted the way they did, they will tell it was to look after their community, not the well being of some European politician from a poor country who, despite constantly asking the eu for help building roads, is earning more than the German chancellor and has three gilt edged pension funds.

Chips Lovell

Looks like Brexit may bring additional jobs to Britain after all:

The note found that departments were working on more than 500 projects related to leaving the EU and may need to hire an extra 30,000 civil servants to deal with the additional work.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

That's a worldwide issue but it is particularly acute in the UK. The blame lies initially with those that have the power, in the case of the UK that is the British government.

And to stop this, maybe they could do what?

Leave the eu?

Fratton Fred

Deleted User wrote: »

I know. I saw Fratton Fred repost the myth today. No new studies, no new facts. Just the same line, and wanted him to be aware that even anti-immigration places like MigrationWatch disagree with him.

When you have heard it first hand from people time after time after time, you become more sceptical of the stats.

FrancieBrady

Fratton Fred wrote: »

When you have heard it first hand from people time after time after time, you become more sceptical of the stats.

How many times would you need 'to hear something first hand' to throw out properly gathered information and stats?

Just wondering.

Fratton Fred

Fratton Fred wrote: »

When you have heard it first hand from people time after time after time, you become more sceptical of the stats.

A refusal to establish and agree a ground truth will make any real, tangible discussion difficult.

You disagree with a ground truth established and agreed upon by a range of groups across the spectrum, with skin in the game and also not, including the independent Bank of England, the (lets be honest) left leaning LSE and the 'anti immigration' Migration Watch.

Your anecdotes disagree with the ground truth, and you are so wed to them as to doubt an enormous range of people and data.

You can surely understand that in the light of all of this, it might appear reasonable to someone to suggest that your posts might be better off in the Conspiracy Theories section of the site?

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

And to stop this, maybe they could do what?

Leave the eu?

You're not reading other people's posts and you are disingeniously wasting posters time here.

I have explained a few times why torpedo-ing the UK economy by leaving the EU is not a way to make things better. Can't you see that already the Brexit government has started paying the 1% off (Nissan). Outside the single market it will pay Nissan (and all the other big boys) the difference in tarrifs. The Brexit price rises from tariffs and inflation will pass directly onto the person on the street so in effect they are being shaken down from Brexit.
Jobs will leach, real wages will go down against inflation and the ordinary punter will have less jobs, less wages. Meanwhile investment will be (is) non existent, as the financial services sector inevitably wanes, revenue will dry up with anything left used to pay the big corpos to stay not to mention the big elephant in the room which is the national debt. Will you still blame Immigrants at this point?

Thomas_...

demfad wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

And to stop this, maybe they could do what?

Leave the eu?

You're not reading other people's posts and you are disingeniously wasting posters time here.

I have explained a few times why torpedo-ing the UK economy by leaving the EU is not a way to make things better. Can't you see that already the Brexit government has started paying the 1% off (Nissan). Outside the single market it will pay Nissan (and all the other big boys) the difference in tarrifs. The Brexit price rises from tariffs and inflation will pass directly onto the person on the street so in effect they are being shaken down from Brexit.
Jobs will leach, real wages will go down against inflation and the ordinary punter will have less jobs, less wages. Meanwhile investment will be (is) non existent, as the financial services sector inevitably wanes, revenue will dry up with anything left used to pay the big corpos to stay not to mention the big elephant in the room which is the national debt. Will you still blame Immigrants at this point?

Well, not much of mine cos I'm skipping his post but reading yours which are, as by the above example, worth a reading. I see it the way you do. The Brits are in a mess they've brought onto themselves and their govt is that confused that it can't find a way out of it without withdrawing from the Brexit which they are supposed to deliver.

ancapailldorcha

Fratton Fred wrote: »

When you have heard it first hand from people time after time after time, you become more sceptical of the stats.

Utterly meaningless. If I said that EU immigration was raising the wages of local people based on what a few people I knew said, I'd be laughed out of here and for good reason.

The plural of anecdote is not data.

Boris Johnson

http://archiv.ihned.cz/c1-65518960-nespoutany-boris

Boris Johnson wrote:

What you describe here is the union's recent memory. The idea that freedom of movement is a fundamental right of the EU, is just bull****.

Boris Johnson wrote:

I'll be honest. I want a strong European Union, but it is not able to reform the way the British would have wished. We could not change it. Some people want to create a certain type of federal union, which would have very serious consequences for us and for our parliamentary democracy

but most importantly

Boris Johnson wrote:

We'll probably have to leave the Customs Union, but it is a question that will be discussed.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

You're not reading other people's posts and you are disingeniously wasting posters time here.

I have explained a few times why torpedo-ing the UK economy by leaving the EU is not a way to make things better. Can't you see that already the Brexit government has started paying the 1% off (Nissan). Outside the single market it will pay Nissan (and all the other big boys) the difference in tarrifs. The Brexit price rises from tariffs and inflation will pass directly onto the person on the street so in effect they are being shaken down from Brexit.
Jobs will leach, real wages will go down against inflation and the ordinary punter will have less jobs, less wages. Meanwhile investment will be (is) non existent, as the financial services sector inevitably wanes, revenue will dry up with anything left used to pay the big corpos to stay not to mention the big elephant in the room which is the national debt. Will you still blame Immigrants at this point?

sigh.

It isn't about blaming the immigrants, I am one after all. it is about blaming the nature of the immigration. It creates an uneven playing field for a lot of local people that sees their earnings potential pegged back.

All through the campaign, anyone that questioned this was labelled racist, xenophobic etc. basically no one listened and guess what, the UK voted to leave.

We have just seen a similar thing in the US. The politicians are losing touch with the people on the ground.

Fratton Fred

Fratton Fred wrote: »

sigh.

It isn't about blaming the immigrants, I am one after all. it is about blaming the nature of the immigration. It creates an uneven playing field for a lot of local people that sees their earnings potential pegged back.

All through the campaign, anyone that questioned this was labelled racist, xenophobic etc. basically no one listened and guess what, the UK voted to leave.

We have just seen a similar thing in the US. The politicians are losing touch with the people on the ground.

But as I have demonstrated, this is unfair scapegoating.

You refusing to accept that doesn't change that.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

But as I have demonstrated, this is unfair scapegoating.

You refusing to accept that doesn't change that.

+1
Perpetuating the myth doesn't help either.

demfad

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-will-not-block-hard-exit-john-mcdonnell-article-50-vote-parliament-a7419186.html

Labour's John McDonnell saying they wont block a hard Brexit.
Politically, this might be a good move. No-one for the Tories to blame now when the proverbial hits the fan......

Fratton Fred

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But as I have demonstrated, this is unfair scapegoating.

You refusing to accept that doesn't change that.

So all the people complaining should just shut up and read the report that tells them their pay has only gone down 1.3%?

This is why the remain vote lost.

marienbad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So all the people complaining should just shut up and read the report that tells them their pay has only gone down 1.3%?

This is why the remain vote lost.

No , of course not , but finding out the real causes might be a start .

Fratton Fred

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So all the people complaining should just shut up and read the report that tells them their pay has only gone down 1.3%?

Care to quote a single post where I wrote anything whatsoever like this?

Fratton Fred wrote: »

This is why the remain vote lost.

Was it not that 'Leave' won in order to take back control?

solodeogloria

Fratton Fred wrote: »

sigh.

It isn't about blaming the immigrants, I am one after all. it is about blaming the nature of the immigration. It creates an uneven playing field for a lot of local people that sees their earnings potential pegged back.

All through the campaign, anyone that questioned this was labelled racist, xenophobic etc. basically no one listened and guess what, the UK voted to leave.

We have just seen a similar thing in the US. The politicians are losing touch with the people on the ground.

Good evening!

It's interesting to see Clive Lewis a Labour MP representing Norwich South in the Guardian today saying that employers who want to hire from abroad should agree with unions on a minimum salary before people arrive if Britain stays in the single market.

Listening to those who are dealing with the pressures is of course the place to start. A sector by sector based analysis of demand based on employers seeking work permits for people coming in should provide a good estimate of demand. Nobody is saying pull up the drawbridge but people are saying that low-skilled workers should be protected from pressure on wages from high levels of low skilled migration.

It isn't racist because most countries do it. Heck, even the European Union does it on its external borders. Unless we say that anyone should be able to enter the EU to work?

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Galwayguy35

Tom McGurk was putting forward the idea last night on Claire Byrne Live that Ireland should follow the UK and leave as well.

Richard Bruton was having none of it and when asked if Ireland should have a referendum all we got for an answer was "No", now last time I checked the TDs were supposed to work for the people and the Government shouldn't be afraid to discuss it and have a referendum if they are confident it will pass.

I think maybe they are afraid of what the result might be after Brexit.

BoatMad

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Tom McGurk was putting forward the idea last night on Claire Byrne Live that Ireland should follow the UK and leave as well.

Richard Bruton was having none of it and when asked if Ireland should have a referendum all we got for an answer was "No", now last time I checked the TDs were supposed to work for the people and the Government shouldn't be afraid to discuss it and have a referendum if they are confident it will pass.

I think maybe they are afraid of what the result might be after Brexit.

The damage to our FDI policy would ne huge if we pulled out of the EU.

Britain has committed the biggest act of national self harm , short of a civil war, Ireland needs not to follow suit

Sam Russell

All referendums on subjects like that get hopelessly sidetracked and end up being about kicking the Government. Why would a Government Minister agree with holding such a referendum just to get a kicking.

Of course he said NO.