Brexit Referendum Superthread

eire4

Latest poll I saw with a breakdown of support for remaining in the EU had Wales at 55% to remain in the EU. Lower then in Scotland granted where support was 64% to stay in but still a majority in favour of staying in the EU.

Lirange

eire4 wrote: »

Latest poll I saw with a breakdown of support for remaining in the EU had Wales at 55% to remain in the EU. Lower then in Scotland granted where support was 64% to stay in but still a majority in favour of staying in the EU.

I haven't seen anything real recent to suggest this. The polls I've come across show the leave vote has been growing over the last six months in Wales. The exit supporters have an 8 pt edge as of February. Exit support has typically been higher than in England relative to polls taken roughly during the same periods.

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-02-15/poll-shows-growing-support-for-leaving-eu/

Current odds: https://www.skybet.com/politics/eu-referendum/event/18961254

eire4

Lirange wrote: »

I haven't seen anything real recent to suggest this. The polls I've come across show the leave vote has been growing over the last six months in Wales. The exit supporters have an 8 pt edge as of February. Exit support has typically been higher than in England relative to polls taken roughly during the same periods.

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-02-15/poll-shows-growing-support-for-leaving-eu/

Current odds: https://www.skybet.com/politics/eu-referendum/event/18961254

You might be right. The poll I saw that had the breakdown by country was in the Telegraph and was from mid February.


Certainly there are some interesting scenarios about the future of Britain itself that are maybe getting overlooked by the focus and rightly so on the actual referendum itself. For instance what happens if the English essentially vote Britain out against the wishes of the Scots and the Welsh. Or what if the Scots and the Welsh votes just keep Britain in against a small no majority in England for instance.

donaghs

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A bit of a quick google and, yes, there is indeed some truth to that. Wales is traditionally Labour territory so I'm surprised at that.

Plenty of EEC/EU sceptic in the wider Labour population, but since the early 80s the party leadership moved the party to a more pro-EU position.

In the 1970s, Labour had for more anti-EEC elements than the Conservatives, e.g. Tony Benn.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euroscepticism_in_the_United_Kingdom

djpbarry

donaghs wrote: »

Plenty of EEC/EU sceptic in the wider Labour population, but since the early 80s the party leadership moved the party to a more pro-EU position.

In the 1970s, Labour had for more anti-EEC elements than the Conservatives, e.g. Tony Benn.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euroscepticism_in_the_United_Kingdom

Let's also not forget that Jeremy Corbyn is not exactly pro-EU.

Personally, I find his opposition rather bizarre. He stated last summer that if Cameron succeeded in negotiating a deal with Brussels that involved "...trading away workers’ rights ... trading away environmental protection...", he would not rule out campaigning for Britain to leave the EU...

...which makes absolutely no sense, as it would allow the Tories to further erode workers' rights and legislation pertaining to environmental protection.

Lirange

eire4 wrote: »

You might be right. The poll I saw that had the breakdown by country was in the Telegraph and was from mid February.


Certainly there are some interesting scenarios about the future of Britain itself that are maybe getting overlooked by the focus and rightly so on the actual referendum itself. For instance what happens if the English essentially vote Britain out against the wishes of the Scots and the Welsh. Or what if the Scots and the Welsh votes just keep Britain in against a small no majority in England for instance.

I think the vote in Wales will be a close reflection of how England votes. We are several months out yet. Loads can happen. But I believe the vote will be close and I think the stay vote will edge it. The real stark divide is with the Scots. It could have ramifications on the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK. I would not be surprised if Scotland turns out to be the difference maker.

djpbarry

Lirange wrote: »

But I believe the vote will be close and I think the stay vote will edge it.

I was of that opinion a few weeks ago, but now I think people may well vote to leave. The level of anti-EU sentiment I am encountering lately is surprising. What’s disappointing is that most of it is based on misinformation, but I’m encountering a lack of willingness among people to inform themselves of the facts – they seem happy enough to remain in blissful ignorance and cling on to some nostalgic notion of brave Blighty standing strong in the face of adversity.

Lirange wrote: »

The real stark divide is with the Scots. It could have ramifications on the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK.

And the n of course there’s Northern Ireland…

ancapailldorcha

djpbarry wrote: »

I was of that opinion a few weeks ago, but now I think people may well vote to leave. The level of anti-EU sentiment I am encountering lately is surprising. What’s disappointing is that most of it is based on misinformation, but I’m encountering a lack of willingness among people to inform themselves of the facts – they seem happy enough to remain in blissful ignorance and cling on to some nostalgic notion of brave Blighty standing strong in the face of adversity.

Indeed. I'm nowhere near as sure now as I was previously. Unfortunately, people seem to have bought the leave side's arguments hook, line and sinker without really questioning them.

djpbarry wrote: »

And then of course there’s Northern Ireland…

I've read that the peace process was heavily dependent on both the UK and Ireland being EU members. Not sure how true this is mind.

eire4

Lirange wrote: »

I think the vote in Wales will be a close reflection of how England votes. We are several months out yet. Loads can happen. But I believe the vote will be close and I think the stay vote will edge it. The real stark divide is with the Scots. It could have ramifications on the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK. I would not be surprised if Scotland turns out to be the difference maker.

There is no doubt that the Scots differ greatly from the English on this one with support for staying very strong in Scotland mid 60's in recent polls.

djpbarry

Interesting interactive map from YouGov:

https://yougov.co.uk/yougov-8545

As expected, a big difference in opinion between Scotland and England is evident. Wales seems generally pretty Europhile, but considerably less so than Scotland. Northern Ireland seemingly doesn't matter.

Interesting that London is generally pro-EU - that surprises me (in a good way!).

ancapailldorcha

djpbarry wrote: »

Interesting that London is generally pro-EU - that surprises me (in a good way!).

Indeed though its financial sector depends heavily on the EU. Is there a reason why Labour do so well in London?

djpbarry

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Indeed though its financial sector depends heavily on the EU. Is there a reason why Labour do so well in London?

The overwhelming majority of Londoners don't work in finance?

ancapailldorcha

djpbarry wrote: »

The overwhelming majority of Londoners don't work in finance?

True but London is located in south-eastern England, traditionally Tory territory.

Skylinehead

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

True but London is located in south-eastern England, traditionally Tory territory.

Mostly well-off rural/suburban voters probably, vast swathes of London are nothing like that.

micosoft

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Indeed. I'm nowhere near as sure now as I was previously. Unfortunately, people seem to have bought the leave side's arguments hook, line and sinker without really questioning them.



I've read that the peace process was heavily dependent on both the UK and Ireland being EU members. Not sure how true this is mind.

I have to agree. Was on the Tube last week reading the freebie Evening Standard which most tube dwellers would glance through. It's a small thing but dropped in the middle of a page about local issues was one of those "factoid" "news" paragraphs. Basically it suggested that there was no scrambled egg at Cameron's English breakfast in Brussels because scrambled egg is banned by the EU. That was it, just dropped in amongst the other news. A complete lie. Given the English have been drip-fed this propaganda for decades it's hard not to understand why the English have such a terrible view of the EU based on a warped worldview created by the English media.

ancapailldorcha

Skylinehead wrote: »

Mostly well-off rural/suburban voters probably, vast swathes of London are nothing like that.

True but support for the hard right is typically strongest in working class areas. UKIP's stronghold is Kent while, as noted above, Wales is quite Eurosceptic as well.

micosoft wrote: »

I have to agree. Was on the Tube last week reading the freebie Evening Standard which most tube dwellers would glance through. It's a small thing but dropped in the middle of a page about local issues was one of those "factoid" "news" paragraphs. Basically it suggested that there was no scrambled egg at Cameron's English breakfast in Brussels because scrambled egg is banned by the EU. That was it, just dropped in amongst the other news. A complete lie. Given the English have been drip-fed this propaganda for decades it's hard not to understand why the English have such a terrible view of the EU based on a warped worldview created by the English media.

It's horrific scaremongering plain and simple with no nuance whatsoever though the Remain side can be just as bad.

I still remember the Daily Mail's 29 million Romanians & Bulgarians "story". We got something like a few hundred thousand. There are just about 29 million Romanians and Bulgarians in those 2 countries. Another one is Farage's claim that 75% of UK law is made in Brussels. I read in The Economist that the true figure, excluding things like legislation on Olive Oil production, 13-17% is more accurate. The problem now is that Schroedinger's immigrant might just have elicited enough ill will to compel Brexit which very few parties actually want.

djpbarry

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

True but London is located in south-eastern England, traditionally Tory territory.

But many areas of London have long been labour strongholds. The same is true of most cities. It’s only really rural areas and affluent urban areas that command strong Tory support.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

True but support for the hard right is typically strongest in working class areas. UKIP's stronghold is Kent while, as noted above, Wales is quite Eurosceptic as well.

Not sure about that. The last general election showed that UKIP support is spread pretty evenly throughout the country.

All of the above is nicely illustrated here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32624405

djpbarry

Interesting piece from YouGov here: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/05/yougov-view-remain-ahead-support-fundamentals/

Essentially, the polls show voter opinion to be fairly evenly split between Leave and Remain at present.

However, what’s interesting is that voters are overwhelmingly of the opinion that leaving the EU would be bad for the economy, would result in the UK having less influence in the world and would have a negative effect on British jobs.

Is the UK prepared to bite off it’s nose to spite it’s face?

Lemming

I'll be voting to remain as others have said; the "leave" campaign has done nothing [credible] to show why leaving would actually be a better option. I find the amount if disinformation and general outright dishonesty by the leave campaign & some of its supporters to be risible with much of it akin to listening to snake-oil merchants promising the earth, moon, and stars with little question as to the why, how, or when. I also think that the amount of hook, line, and sinker buy-in among the general population to leave is due in part to the fact that the leave campaign have had an incredibly long run-in to this. Even longer when you consider that the likes of UKIP and the media have been chipping away at this for a considerable number of years.

All that said, I do have to take heart in the fact that several friends who had spoken negatively regards the EU in the past have changed their tune with the realisation that their jobs (some very high-brow stuff) are very much at risk and likely to be pulled onto the continent in the event of a leave vote. And all of this before the "stay" campaign has really kicked into gear.

Trompette

@Lemming

Only for these few links, if I was you, I'd vote for "leave"
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/650115/Britain-European-Union-war-Jean-Claude-Juncker-Brussels-peace-Brexit-David-Cameronhttp://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4697891.ece
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Jean-Claude_Juncker#2015
http://www.thejournal.ie/eu-gmo-opt-out-2413905-Oct2015/
https://www.citizen.org/documents/TAFTA-GMO-factsheet.pdf


It seems you didn't understand that EU is a jail.
Let me know if you want more, I even have a lot in French.

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

I'll be voting to remain as others have said; the "leave" campaign has done nothing [credible] to show why leaving would actually be a better option. I find the amount if disinformation and general outright dishonesty by the leave campaign & some of its supporters to be risible with much of it akin to listening to snake-oil merchants promising the earth, moon, and stars with little question as to the why, how, or when. I also think that the amount of hook, line, and sinker buy-in among the general population to leave is due in part to the fact that the leave campaign have had an incredibly long run-in to this. Even longer when you consider that the likes of UKIP and the media have been chipping away at this for a considerable number of years.

All that said, I do have to take heart in the fact that several friends who had spoken negatively regards the EU in the past have changed their tune with the realisation that their jobs (some very high-brow stuff) are very much at risk and likely to be pulled onto the continent in the event of a leave vote. And all of this before the "stay" campaign has really kicked into gear.

Most of my friends are staunchly Eurosceptic but stop at the point of throwing the European baby out with the bathwater. They see the EU as a mixed blessing with more positives than negatives and therefore advocate my voting to remain which was my original intention.

The Leave side seems entirely devoid of pragmatism with a few seemingly thinking the UK is still a superpower. I read a piece in The Sun by Tory MP Liam Fox who's response to the argument that the EU has an incentive to deal harshly with a post Brexit UK was something along the lines of "Are they going to stop selling us German cars, Italian clothes and French wine?" A trade deal will need ratification from the other EU member states and I don't see Poland giving two stuffs about Volkswagen's importing of Passats to the UK.

djpbarry wrote: »

Interesting piece from YouGov here: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/05/yougov-view-remain-ahead-support-fundamentals/

Essentially, the polls show voter opinion to be fairly evenly split between Leave and Remain at present.

However, what’s interesting is that voters are overwhelmingly of the opinion that leaving the EU would be bad for the economy, would result in the UK having less influence in the world and would have a negative effect on British jobs.

Is the UK prepared to bite off it’s nose to spite it’s face?

My worry is that, even though a lot of people might vote "remain" to preserve the status quo, it will leave a significant minority who wish to leave unsatisfied. There have been suggestions from the SNP that a vote to leave will trigger another Scottish independence referendum which will likely pass given the result last time and Scotland's relative Europhilia.

oscarBravo

Trompette wrote: »

@Lemming

Only for these few links, if I was you, I'd vote for "leave"

Let's see...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/650115/Britain-European-Union-war-Jean-Claude-Juncker-Brussels-peace-Brexit-David-Cameron

The Express in typical harrumphing indignant style claiming Juncker "bizarrely ordered eurosceptics to visit WAR GRAVES..."

In the sidebar, I see the headlines "BREXIT THREAT: Spain will ‘take control of Gibraltar as soon as Britain leaves EU’" and "France to hire FERRIES to send Calais migrants to Britain within HOURS of EU Out vote".

I think we can take all that with a typically Express-sized pinch of salt. Moving on:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4697891.ece

"Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, has drawn up strict rules forbidding civil servants from drafting speeches for pro-Brexit ministers or allowing them access to documents relating to the referendum."

This, of course, is the EU's fault.

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Jean-Claude_Juncker#2015

Not sure what the significance of this is.

http://www.thejournal.ie/eu-gmo-opt-out-2413905-Oct2015/

The directly-elected Parliament rejects a proposal from the appointed Commission. Quelle horreur!

https://www.citizen.org/documents/TAFTA-GMO-factsheet.pdf

TAFTA doesn't exist. Besides, what's with the anti-GMO woo? Next thing you'll be giving out about vaccines.

It seems you didn't understand that EU is a jail.

The links you've provided don't come remotely close to demonstrating that.

Lemming

Trompette wrote: »

It seems you didn't understand that EU is a jail.
Let me know if you want more, I even have a lot in French.

Your "informative" post would show that it is not I who does not understand how the EU works.

But on that note, you've just copied and pasted in links without comment as to their content which is a bit of a no-no around these parts. So ... care to synopsise those links, why they're valid and why I don't have a clue about the EU?

micosoft

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's horrific scaremongering plain and simple with no nuance whatsoever though the Remain side can be just as bad.

Are they though? I'm at a loss to see any hyperbole or excess from the remain side - most of it pointing out the extreme uncertainty of Brexit and that the UK cannot assume it will get all of its demands met the minute they leave. Can you show any examples of the remain side being "bad"? I appreciate the need to balance between the sides but I don't see that with the "euro-skeptics".

ancapailldorcha

micosoft wrote: »

Are they though? I'm at a loss to see any hyperbole or excess from the remain side - most of it pointing out the extreme uncertainty of Brexit and that the UK cannot assume it will get all of its demands met the minute they leave. Can you show any examples of the remain side being "bad"? I appreciate the need to balance between the sides but I don't see that the "euro-skeptics".

Perhaps "just as bad" was over the top on my part but I've read arguments going on and on about how we need the EU to tackle climate change, how Scotland will leave if we vote for Brexit, questions about the stability of Northern Ireland in a post Brexit UK and concerns over the safety of a UK outside the EU. I fully intend to vote to remain by the way.

oscarBravo

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

...I've read arguments going on and on about how we need the EU to tackle climate change...

Maybe, maybe not. If the UK is as committed to tackling climate change inside or outside the EU, that's an easy argument to refute.

...how Scotland will leave if we vote for Brexit...

Brexit would certainly be a strong catalyst for another Scottish referendum, particularly if Scotland votes overwhelmingly to remain.

...questions about the stability of Northern Ireland in a post Brexit UK...

There certainly are valid questions about the possible need for border controls between the Republic and NI, given that it would be an EU frontier. The idea of a visible border crossing would be unsettling for many.

...and concerns over the safety of a UK outside the EU.

I haven't heard any of those concerns. There certainly are valid concerns regarding health and safety of workers, considering that one of the motivations to leave seems to be that the nasty EU keeps forcing employers to ensure their workers' safety and welfare.

Palmach

oscarBravo wrote: »

There certainly are valid questions about the possible need for border controls between the Republic and NI, given that it would be an EU frontier. The idea of a visible border crossing would be unsettling for many.

That canard has been raised time and again. Neither of the two countries are in Schengen and we have a CTA. There is no border between Norway and Sweden when one is in the EU and one is not. If the UK leaves I imagine there will be a quick deal to continue the CTA.

Palmach

Lemming wrote: »

I changed their tune with the realisation that their jobs (some very high-brow stuff) are very much at risk and likely to be pulled onto the continent in the event of a leave vote. And all of this before the "stay" campaign has really kicked into gear.

More scaremongering. There is not one scintilla of evidence that the UK will lose jobs because of a Brexit. Most trade is now covered and will be more so in the future by the WTO. Furthermore the UK is the 5th biggest economy on the planet and no one will not sign a trade deal with the British.

ancapailldorcha

oscarBravo wrote: »

Maybe, maybe not. If the UK is as committed to tackling climate change inside or outside the EU, that's an easy argument to refute.

True. I'm not making it one way or the other. I'm just mentioning it. Then again, I follow the Green Party's Facebook page which likely lacks a wide readership.

oscarBravo wrote: »

Brexit would certainly be a strong catalyst for another Scottish referendum, particularly if Scotland votes overwhelmingly to remain.

Agreed. The fact that it was so close last time makes this a legitimate argument IMO.

oscarBravo wrote: »

There certainly are valid questions about the possible need for border controls between the Republic and NI, given that it would be an EU frontier. The idea of a visible border crossing would be unsettling for many.

Ireland and the UK seem to have a special relationship. We can vote in each other's elections and have close links as a result of our history. This would be uncharted territory after Brexit though. There's also the cost and responsibility to consider. Staffing the border with officers won't be cheap and will they be Gardaí or PSNI officers?

oscarBravo wrote: »

I haven't heard any of those concerns. There certainly are valid concerns regarding health and safety of workers, considering that one of the motivations to leave seems to be that the nasty EU keeps forcing employers to ensure their workers' safety and welfare.

Nick Clegg mentioned this in a debate with Nigel Farage in 2014. It's been a while since I watched it but he made the point that UK security agencies has successfully cooperated with those of EU nations to effect the arrest of terrorists.

Palmach

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Nick Clegg mentioned this in a debate with Nigel Farage in 2014. It's been a while since I watched it but he made the point that UK security agencies has successfully cooperated with those of EU nations to effect the arrest of terrorists.

Do you think they will stop co-operating with the UK after a Brexit? Do you have to be in a Union with other countries to co-operate on security matters? Don't you think NATO is far more important in this role than the EU?