Brexit Referendum Superthread

westtip

David Cameron came alive tonight on the BBC at long last some real passion about Brits staying in. Lets hope he has pulled some doubters over the line.

BoJack Horseman

westtip wrote: »

David Cameron came alive tonight on the BBC at long last some real passion about Brits staying in. Lets hope he has pulled some doubters over the line.

It's Jezza's turn tonight.

Can he convincingly go against 3 decades of being anti-EU?

And he'll have to spin hard his affirmation yesterday that there can be no upper limit placed on migration.

Bob24

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

It's Jezza's turn tonight.

Can he convincingly go against 3 decades of being anti-EU?

And he'll have to spin hard his affirmation yesterday that there can be no upper limit placed on migration.

I think regardless of opinions on Brexit itself, seeing someone who is pretty much anti-capitalist defend what to the UK is mostly a liberal free trade agreement is quite comical. It must be a shocker for him to be on the same side of the argument as the City of London and every single liberal economic think tank or institution in the UK :-D And the likes of Tony Blair or Gordon Brown must be banging their heads against the wall :-D

oscarBravo

Bob24 wrote: »

...seeing someone who is pretty much anti-capitalist defend what to the UK is mostly a liberal free trade agreement is quite comical.

The EU is a lot more than a free trade agreement. I'm afraid your comedy is based on a misconception.

BoJack Horseman

oscarBravo wrote: »

The EU is a lot more than a free trade agreement

Indeed you are right there is a lot more to it.

As Wurzel himself said:

"I would advocate a No vote if we are going to get an imposition of free market policies across Europe", before going on to criticise the "growing military links" with Nato

Let's hope he has the fortitude to elaborate further on this ominous NATO threat!

Bob24

oscarBravo wrote: »

The EU is a lot more than a free trade agreement. I'm afraid your comedy is based on a misconception.

I am afraid you misread my post ;-) I said "what to the UK is mostly a liberal free trade agreement".

Didn't the remain campaign most revolve around the fact the a Brexit would hurt the economy and Britain would lose access to the common market?

oscarBravo

Bob24 wrote: »

I am afraid you misread my post ;-) I said "what to the UK is mostly a liberal free trade agreement".

I didn't misread it. The EU is much more than a free trade agreement to the UK, just as it is to all its member states.

Didn't the remain campaign most revolve around the fact the a Brexit would hurt the economy and Britain would lose access to the common market?

In common with all referendum campaigns, the Remain one has been less than stellar. Not that that in any way alters the nature of the EU.

Bob24

oscarBravo wrote: »

I didn't misread it.

Then you misrepresented it in your answer by leaving out the "to the UK" part.

oscarBravo wrote: »

The EU is much more than a free trade agreement to the UK, just as it is to all its member states. In common with all referendum campaigns, the Remain one has been less than stellar. Not that that in any way alters the nature of the EU.

If the campaign is focusing on this, doesn't it mean that their strategists have came to the conclusion that what British value about the EU is free trade?

Other hints about what the UK values in the EU: they opted out from the Schengen area and the Eurozone.

BoJack Horseman

oscarBravo wrote: »

Not that that in any way alters the nature of the EU.

Time will tell though.

according to your glorious president we are 4 days away from both the destruction of the EU and the end of western political civilisation!

The EU's "nature" may be about to end.... not to mention 2 millenia of western civilisation!

Either moronic hyperbole on the part of El Presidente, or the EU was not up to much to begin with.

oscarBravo

Bob24 wrote: »

Then you misrepresented it in your answer by leaving out the "to the UK" part.

No, I didn't. I just didn't concur with your assessment that the EU is a free trade agreement to one of its members, but more than that to the others. The EU is what it is - it isn't anything different "to" different member states - and what it is is much more than a free trade agreement.

If the campaign is focusing on this, doesn't it mean that their strategists have came to the conclusion that what British value about the EU is free trade?

Maybe. If what you've been trying to say is that British people are operating on the mistaken belief that the EU is little more than a free trade agreement, perhaps you should have just said so.

ancapailldorcha

According to this, the referendum is not legally binding and the matter could be put to a parliamentary vote which would be likely to yield a remain vote.

Bob24

oscarBravo wrote: »

Maybe. If what you've been trying to say is that British people are operating on the mistaken belief that the EU is little more than a free trade agreement, perhaps you should have just said so.

To many British people and the British government what matters about the EU is free trade and they only tolerate the rest (or opt-out when they can). I think that's pretty much what I said when I wrote about "what to the UK is mostly a liberal free trade agreement".

How is that a misconception?

Bob24

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

According to this, the referendum is not legally binding and the matter could be put to a parliamentary vote which would be likely to yield a remain vote.

Yes the vote is not legally binding (anyway the question is two high-level to be as it doesn't specify exactly how the potential exit should be organised and how to react in case there are hurdles on the road).

But I think it is more of a political question. Could the parliament really immediately vote against what a majority of voters just expressed? I think given how polarised opinions are and how tense the campaign has been, this could trigger at least a political crisis and possibly even some type of civil unrest.

Having said that, maybe they could voluntarily drag their feet thinking if things go slow enough and look too complicated people could change their mind.

whatever_

Well, it's all over bar the shouting. The grey conservatives of Ireland have had their
way and Britain is going nowhere.

Our government has decided, in its infinite wisdom, that it would be better for Ireland if Britain stays. A relentless stream of propaganda, misinformation and downright lies is unleashed via their organ RTE :


http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0606/793578-brexit-northern-ireland/


http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0608/794029-brexit-rural-ireland/



http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0613/795120-brexit/


No better way of galvanising the Irish nation than to talk of the return of a physical border and the end of the Good Friday Agreement. The fact that the grey conservatives cannot find a single politician in Britain, Ireland or "Europe" that supports this position is neither here or there. And so thanks to the political equivalent of the immaculate conception, a stinking great lie is born and Irish voters head out to deny Britain's bid for freedom. Oh wouldn't Pearse be proud of you !

And RTE Radio One is not much better. Marian Finucane wonders aloud why Cameron has allowed Britain a Referendum given that it is such a close race. Ah ! there speaks the voice of Ireland's elite (no different the posters here that think it would be perfectly acceptable for parliament to overturn the referendum result - it happens in the EU after all) ! Eamon Dunphy informs her that it is something to do with UKIP. And then Ireland's greatest windbag goes on to inform the nation that Boris Johnson is a "buffoon". No matter that Dunphy himself can be decked by a few purposeful jabs from Kenny Cunningham. €600K/year Marian stay on holiday, your replacement Katie Hannon can knock the skin off a rice pudding.

So we witness the spectacle of an Irish Taoiseach campaigning on English soil. "Oh, but he's only representing Ireland's interests because it's going to affect us if you leave". Really ? and your weak Euro, your tax evading American corporations and your dodgy banks don't affect Britain ?

So, grey conservatives of Ireland, as you bask in self satisfaction, remember - this does not end here. "The long usurpation of that right by a foreign people and government". Indeed.

FreudianSlippers

Much ado about nothing... it's patently obvious why the referendum legislation doesn't have an immediate Article 50 trigger - it would be insane for it to occur whereby on immediate decision to leave the EU, the process begins. Parliament will have to take months if not years to negotiate and implement legislation and agreements with regard to trade and movement of workers (not to mention status of the tens of thousands of ex-pats living in EU Member States) before the actual withdrawal from the EU.

Suggesting that Cameron would ignore the will of the majority of the people is slightly silly. Suggesting that there is some wool being pulled over the eyes of the electorate is borderline conspiracy theory stuff.

FreudianSlippers

whatever_ wrote: »

No better way of galvanising the Irish nation than to talk of the return of a physical border and the end of the Good Friday Agreement. The fact that the grey conservatives cannot find a single politician in Britain, Ireland or "Europe" that supports this position is neither here or there. And so thanks to the political equivalent of the immaculate conception, a stinking great lie is born and Irish voters head out to deny Britain's bid for freedom. Oh wouldn't Pearse be proud of you !

Both Osborne and Cameron (the latter in PMQ) have said that there will either need to be border controls on the border or there will need to be controls leaving NI into Britain. If I were a UK citizen of either hue living in NI, I know that I'd be pretty upset with the idea of having to go through border controls between two countries in the United Kingdom.

Logistically, one of the main arguments from the social right supporting a leave vote is that immigration is hurting the UK; it's then a bit ironic to support a porous border with an EU country.

BoJack Horseman

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Both Osborne and Cameron (the latter in PMQ) have said that there will either need to be border controls on the border or there will need to be controls leaving NI into Britain. If I were a UK citizen of either hue living in NI, I know that I'd be pretty upset with the idea of having to go through border controls between two countries in the United Kingdom.

Wasn't there a border before 1997?

Francie Barrett

Looking at the odds spreads blowing out, the FTSE jump today, and the strength of Sterling, a Remain victory looks like a done deal. Regardless of which side you're on, I think Farage was right in saying that the momentum for the Leave vote was lost with the murder of Jo Cox. I think that combined with a good showing from Cameron should help Remain carry the day. With only 3 days left until the vote, Leave need a miracle, of at least some sort of major gaffe from the Remain side.

Has to be ironic that the nutter who wanted Britain out of the EU saved the day for the Remain vote by his actions.

BoJack Horseman

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Leave need a miracle, of at least some sort of major gaffe from the Remain side.

Apparently President Junker will be visiting this week to spread democratic legitimacy throughout the land.... so there is that.

But apart from that hail Mary, the remanians have won the day.
Tonight Jezza will appeal strongly to the Labour vote, swallow his cognitive dissonance & kiss the ring.

The margin will be comfortable enough.

58-42 is my prediction.

FreudianSlippers

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Both Osborne and Cameron (the latter in PMQ) have said that there will either need to be border controls on the border or there will need to be controls leaving NI into Britain. If I were a UK citizen of either hue living in NI, I know that I'd be pretty upset with the idea of having to go through border controls between two countries in the United Kingdom.

Wasn't there a border before 1997?

Between NI and Britain? Not that I'm aware of.

BoJack Horseman

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Between NI and Britain? Not that I'm aware of.

No, between NI & ROI.

ancapailldorcha

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes the vote is not legally binding (anyway the question is two high-level to be as it doesn't specify exactly how the potential exit should be organised and how to react in case there are hurdles on the road).

But I think it is more of a political question. Could the parliament really immediately vote against what a majority of voters just expressed? I think given how polarised opinions are and how tense the campaign has been, this could trigger at least a political crisis and possibly even some type of civil unrest.

Having said that, maybe they could voluntarily drag their feet thinking if things go slow enough and look too complicated people could change their mind.

David Cameron has said that he'd invoke Article 50 in the event of a prevailing Leave vote. It does seem unlikely that he'd defy the electorate on such a polarising matter.

Bob24

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

David Cameron has said that he'd invoke Article 50 in the event of a prevailing Leave vote. It does seem unlikely that he'd defy the electorate on such a polarising matter.

Indeed. Having said that and while it is only speculation, no matter what he says I am not sure he would actually remain in charge in case of a leave vote. So he could be leaving the responsibility to keep that promise to someone else.

Polo_Mint

Looking at the current poll results its 44% a piece with 12% undecided.

Its hard to know what will happen on June 23rd


I think it will be very close

ancapailldorcha

Bob24 wrote: »

Indeed. Having said that and while it is only speculation, no matter what he says I am not sure he would actually remain in charge in case of a leave vote. So he could be leaving the responsibility to keep that promise to someone else.

I'd say he'll hang around to get the ball rolling with regards to Article 50 and then step down. There are only 2 years of negotiations so they need to begin as soon as possible.

Polo_Mint wrote: »

Looking at the current poll results its 44% a piece with 12% undecided.

Its hard to know what will happen on June 23rd


I think it will be very close

Farage has said that he'll push for a second one if this is the case. Ironic given his condemnation of Brussels for forcing a second Lisbon treaty referendum in Ireland.

FreudianSlippers

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Between NI and Britain? Not that I'm aware of.

No, between NI & ROI.

Yes, but I'm not sure I understand to what you are alluding? OP said something about there being not one politician claiming there would be border controls - to which I pointed out Osborne and Cameron making statements which are contrary to that claim.

Cameron specifically saying that the potential choice is either border controls between Ireland and NI or something akin to border controls between NI and Britain.

Frankly, I'm not sure what the position pre-1997 has to do with anything?

FreudianSlippers

Polo_Mint wrote: »

Looking at the current poll results its 44% a piece with 12% undecided.

Its hard to know what will happen on June 23rd


I think it will be very close

Markets seem to be reacting as if it's a done deal that 'remain' will prevail with a fairly sharp surge in GBP.

Polo_Mint

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Markets seem to be reacting as if it's a done deal that 'remain' will prevail with a fairly sharp surge in GBP.

I guess the thing about Poll surveys in the UK is they can dramatically get the wrong.

Its like the people say one thing and do another.

UK General Election 2015 comes to mind

BoJack Horseman

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Frankly, I'm not sure what the position pre-1997 has to do with anything?

It's all part of "Call me Dave"© Cameron's project fear.

There was a border before 1997.... despite being in the EU.
Therefore the EU had nothing to do with the removal of said border.

Like elaborating on who Britain would attack or be attacked by thus sparking his predicted WW3.... Dave got a free pass on his make believe.

Bob24

Polo_Mint wrote: »

I guess the thing about Poll surveys in the UK is they can dramatically get the wrong.

Its like the people say one thing and do another.

UK General Election 2015 comes to mind

Exactly (and not just in the UK). Some people will always either lie because they don't want to disclose their true opinion or change their mind once they have the actual ballot paper in hand.

Polling institutes need to correct for these things and usually do it based on experience from previous elections. The problem here is there is no previous similar vote to draw experience from, so I'd see there is always a possibly that polls are dramatically off the mark.

The remain side does seem to look much better than last week though.