Brexit Referendum Superthread

Professor Moriarty

It will be interesting to see what happens to property prices in France and Spain over the next two years. Killings could be made.

BoatMad

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It will be interesting to see what happens to property prices in France and Spain over the next two years. Killings could be made.

I doubt you'd want to live where most of these are , I mean The " costas"

nor do I think anyone will act until they have too , so we are looking at years

BoatMad

demfad wrote: »

I don't think May hating the ECJ or otherwise should count.
Politically A50 could only be revoked if public opinion had changed greatly in the UK. It must be revoked in the 2 year window, not a continous series of referenda.

The difference between revocability and not is that the parliament could decide to revoke it if revoking it was clearly the better option than the deal on the table or no deal at all.

Donald Tusk seems to think its revocable here (24:55) : http://ec.europa.eu/avservices/video/player.cfm?ref=I127730

As does Lord Kerr who drafted A50: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37852628

You may be of the opinion that it cant be revoked, fair enough. Legally it would seem otherwise, and that may prove significant yet.

EDIT: Another the former Director General of the Council’s legal service

https://www.ft.com/content/b9fc30c8-6edb-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926

I think you miss my point.

if the UK had a change of heart after article 50 , I suspect the EU 27 would agree to terminate the exit anyway.

the point is that the forces for Brexit in the UK are getting stronger, not weaker. Therefore I see no political process in the UK, that would set parliament on a collision course with the Gov. All this would do is force an election , that would return the Tories in even greater numbers, possibly with even more Brexit hardliners, ( certainly a hard line Brexit PM ) and the process would complete.

There is no evidence that the UK public are seriously regretting their decision. When they do , it will be far too late as it will be several years from now

This is my point, its all wishful thinking

Professor Moriarty

BoatMad wrote: »

I doubt you'd want to live where most of these are , I mean The " costas"

nor do I think anyone will act until they have too , so we are looking at years

It will be all about timing. As soon as Brexit looks like it will go through, you'll see a flood of properties. There'll be some nice properties away from the Costas. Not a huge fan of France myself but a nice villa in the Algarve would be tempting.

BoatMad

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It will be all about timing. As soon as Brexit looks like it will go through, you'll see a flood of properties. There'll be some nice properties away from the Costas. Not a huge fan of France myself but a nice villa in the Algarve would be tempting.

I fail to see why UK people will sell up ?, theres never going to be enforced repatriation of nationals , thats simply not going to happen

Professor Moriarty

BoatMad wrote: »

I fail to see why UK people will sell up ?, theres never going to be enforced repatriation of nationals , thats simply not going to happen

No but travelling would become much more of a hassle. Also, owning property as a non-EU citizen may well have tax and legal implications.

BoatMad

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No but travelling would become much more of a hassle. Also, owning property as a non-EU citizen may well have tax and legal implications.

tax is not harmonised at present , so thats not any change

I fail to see how travel will be more difficult, in any material way. the UK will negotiate reciprocal rights, as it alway has ( since its not in Schengen) , people will travel back and forth

what may be different will be new potential residents, but I suspect those already there will be grandfathered in and this who visit will be catered for under generous travel holiday visas

Professor Moriarty

BoatMad wrote: »

tax is not harmonised at present , so thats not any change

I fail to see how travel will be more difficult, in any material way. the UK will negotiate reciprocal rights, as it alway has ( since its not in Schengen) , people will travel back and forth

what may be different will be new potential residents, but I suspect those already there will be grandfathered in and this who visit will be catered for under generous travel holiday visas

It depends on how the negotiations go too. If goodwill disappears, which could easily happen if the UK drops its corporation tax rate, then everything up for grabs. If I were British and owned a property in Spain, I'd be nervous.

BoatMad

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It depends on how the negotiations go too. If goodwill disappears, which could easily happen if the UK drops its corporation tax rate, then everything up for grabs. If I were British and owned a property in Spain, I'd be nervous.

more wishful thinking

The UK knows it needs the EU , the EU needs the UK. the divorce will ultimately be amicable in that it will be worked out and agreed.

each side nows that , allowing everyone to decend into a huff is to no-ones interest

The UK has extraordinary good EU lobbyist and a EU civil service that is extremely diligent and were connected , The UK has influenced more EU laws then any other country.

The Uks issue will be its domestic political situation , not other EU members " principles " . The hard Brexiters will gain strength and grow and that causes May a lot of problems

Professor Moriarty

BoatMad wrote: »

more wishful thinking

The UK knows it needs the EU , the EU needs the UK. the divorce will ultimately be amicable in that it will be worked out and agreed.

each side nows that , allowing everyone to decend into a huff is to no-ones interest

The UK has extraordinary good EU lobbyist and a EU civil service that is extremely diligent and were connected , The UK has influenced more EU laws then any other country.

The Uks issue will be its domestic political situation , not other EU members " principles " . The hard Brexiters will gain strength and grow and that causes May a lot of problems

Actually, Britain's biggest problem is that they lack negotiating expertise. The EU will do what is in its own interests. Britain is negotiating using inexperienced staff with an economic block ten times its size that competes right on its doorstep and whose staff are highly experienced negotiators. My money is on the EU.

View

BoatMad wrote: »

I beleive that the UK , will present the Republic with a choice

(A) Negotiate with the EU to control EU migration into Ireland and continue with the CTA
(B) Refuse and accept a hard border in NI ( even if thats almost impractical ) .

Option A is utterly incompatible with the EU Treaties. That would require us to basically persuade the rest of the EU to fillet the treaties and it is a much, much bigger ask than what David C tried and failed to acheive.

The objective for the EU member states in art 3 TEU is that EU citizens shall have border free travel (within the EU) and anything that would require the RoI to act as though we are the "Isle of Man West" is not compatible with that.

Zubeneschamali

View wrote: »

Option A is utterly incompatible with the EU Treaties.

Yes. NI-Britain immigration control, on the other hand, is completely within the UKs power to implement.

First Up

BoatMad wrote:

I fail to see why UK people will sell up ?, theres never going to be enforced repatriation of nationals , thats simply not going to happen

We'll see how UK retirees feel when they are required to pay for the Spanish and French healthcare they currently get for free.

BoatMad

First Up wrote: »

We'll see how UK retirees feel when they are required to pay for the Spanish and French healthcare they currently get for free.

They don't get it for free , just emergency. No doubt that will be solved by repricocal arrangements

BoatMad

View wrote: »

Option A is utterly incompatible with the EU Treaties. That would require us to basically persuade the rest of the EU to fillet the treaties and it is a much, much bigger ask than what David C tried and failed to acheive.

The objective for the EU member states in art 3 TEU is that EU citizens shall have border free travel (within the EU) and anything that would require the RoI to act as though we are the "Isle of Man West" is not compatible with that.

Well we can expect to see millions of Irish citizens leaving the uk for home then , I hope we have jobs.

Seriously it's Ireland that's fu€ked by Brexit not the uk. , and a hard Brexit would be catistfophic for us.

First Up

BoatMad wrote:

They don't get it for free , just emergency. No doubt that will be solved by repricocal arrangements

Nope, EU citizens have access to the Spanish public health system. I know someone availing of it right now.

First Up

BoatMad wrote:

Seriously it's Ireland that's fu€ked by Brexit not the uk. , and a hard Brexit would be catistfophic for us.

Nah, we'll get over it - with a few bruises.

They won't.

BoatMad

First Up wrote: »

Nah, we'll get over it - with a few bruises.

They won't.

The U.K. Is of sufficant size ecomonically to at least make a fair stab at it and the U.K. Is at its best when it feels it's the underdog.

We on the other hand have far more to loose economically and culturally

Borders were none existed before , paperwork , ids , it's all backwards we are going

murphaph

Bob24 wrote: »

The US is different from the UK as it has a land border with Mexico which is a large source of illegal immigration.

Illegally entering the UK is much more difficult as the only land border is with Ireland (not a huge source of illegal immigration, though it could become one if we don't fix the CTA and how we do border checks). The only practical way would be to apply for an Irish visa and cross through the CTA, but while noone will know for sure in which of the two countries you are, you will have entered one of them legally and there will be a record of that entry shared by the two countries.

Things are very similar in Ireland: many illegals here are visa required nationals who entered legally with a tourist or a student visa but never left.

The UK wants to stop EU migration. The rest they can stop already. We will not be recording EU citizens movements as they have a right to come and go as they please. Illegal polish migrants heading to work with family already on the UK will almost certainly travel through Ireland to avoid detection if the system remains exactly as it is at present. Dublin is very accessible from all over eastern Europe and Belfast is only up the road.

BoatMad

murphaph wrote: »

The UK wants to stop EU migration. The rest they can stop already. We will not be recording EU citizens movements as they have a right to come and go as they please. Illegal polish migrants heading to work with family already on the UK will almost certainly travel through Ireland to avoid detection if the system remains exactly as it is at present. Dublin is very accessible from all over eastern Europe and Belfast is only up the road.

Hence as I said one of three things will happen

1, hard border at NI
2. Hard border at uk mainland
3. Ireland implements controls

2 might be easiest , and was in existence from ww2 until 1952. Politically it would be awkward for a Tory party to implement it. Attempts to place NI checks into several uk immigration bills were defeated on several occasions since

It's also entirely possible that NI remains inside the customs union as well.

Foghladh

First Up wrote: »

BoatMad wrote:

They don't get it for free , just emergency. No doubt that will be solved by repricocal arrangements

Nope, EU citizens have access to the Spanish public health system. I know someone availing of it right now.

UK pensioners have access to the health system of EU states but the costs are picked up by the UK so long as their pension is paid by the UK.

View

BoatMad wrote: »

View wrote: »

Option A is utterly incompatible with the EU Treaties. That would require us to basically persuade the rest of the EU to fillet the treaties and it is a much, much bigger ask than what David C tried and failed to acheive.

The objective for the EU member states in art 3 TEU is that EU citizens shall have border free travel (within the EU) and anything that would require the RoI to act as though we are the "Isle of Man West" is not compatible with that.

Well we can expect to see millions of Irish citizens leaving the uk for home then , I hope we have jobs.

Seriously it's Ireland that's fu€ked by Brexit not the uk. , and a hard Brexit would be catistfophic for us.

If we are going to take a hit it is directly because of the decisions that May and her Brexit crew intend to take. They seem to intend to go for the "hardest of hard" Brexit options. This seems to be based on a combination of hostility to all things European and a belief that if they "act tough" that the rest of the EU will fall over to appease them.

Well, neither we nor the rest of the EU are under any obligation to keel over to this "act tough" attitude. Indeed it would be downright foolish to do so, since it would massively strengthen the hand of Brexiters within the U.K. and it would also encourage repeat performances of it in future. Therefore, rather than devoting our time and energy to solving problems created by the Brexiters, we should instead devote it to reorientating our economy so that we can maximise our trade and other links with the rest of the EU in the wake of an actual Brexit. It is only when the UK public see that the Brexiters' strategy isn't working and that it is a "road to nowhere" that the Brexiters will be exposed as charlatans and their strategies reconsidered.

BoatMad

View wrote: »

If we are going to take a hit it is directly because of the decisions that May and her Brexit crew intend to take. They seem to intend to go for the "hardest of hard" Brexit options. This seems to be based on a combination of hostility to all things European and a belief that if they "act tough" that the rest of the EU will fall over to appease them.

Well, neither we nor the rest of the EU are under any obligation to keel over to this "act tough" attitude. Indeed it would be downright foolish to do so, since it would massively strengthen the hand of Brexiters within the U.K. and it would also encourage repeat performances of it in future. Therefore, rather than devoting our time and energy to solving problems created by the Brexiters, we should instead devote it to reorientating our economy so that we can maximise our trade and other links with the rest of the EU in the wake of an actual Brexit. It is only when the UK public see that the Brexiters' strategy isn't working and that it is a "road to nowhere" that the Brexiters will be exposed as charlatans and their strategies reconsidered.

Ah sure , we all speak German and French loike

The U.K. Does not want a hard exit. That's clear from Mays speech m but it's negoiating position is that it will take that path if it had too. May can hardly say anything else.

Hence the best all round is a deal that minimises disruption and has as little effect as possible in Ireland. That's what we have to look for.

Being vindictive is self defeating.

J Mysterio

The big question is N.I.

The time is probably just about right to push for a united Ireland.

A hard border will not do in Ireland, especially not enforced by the EU. Britain can maintain the borders of the mainland.

Many Northern Irish identifying Catholics and Protestants could potentially be turned in a referendum by the promise of staying in the EU and avoiding the old border. Particularly bow as Stormont had broken down again amod scandal and recrimination.

Sam Russell

Sixty years ago there was an economic war in 1936 between Ireland and the UK over the annuities, claimed by both Governments. As a result, UK stopped buying Irish farm products which devastated rural Ireland. 1939, when the 2nd WW started, Britain looked for the beef, but it was all gone.

Brexit is not the first time Ireland has suffered from British self-interest.

J Mysterio

Nicola Sturgeon: Second referendum 'all but inevitable' after May's speech

Foghladh

J Mysterio wrote: »

Nicola Sturgeon: Second referendum 'all but inevitable' after May's speech

With regards to the SNP, a second referendum was always inevitable.

A Dub in Glasgo

Foghladh wrote: »

With regards to the SNP, a second referendum was always inevitable.

It was always wanted, not inevitable. The SNP needed the context to insist there is now a material change from the 2014 referendum and the tone and actions from the Tories makes it now inevitable. Whether the people in Scotland now have the testicles to vote for independence is a different matter

Enzokk

BoatMad wrote: »

The U.K. Does not want a hard exit. That's clear from Mays speech m but it's negoiating position is that it will take that path if it had too. May can hardly say anything else.

Wait, if you listened to what she wants it is to make their own trade deals and to control immigration. The rest of it was just there around those two principals as a, we would also like this.

For the UK to have the power to negotiate their own trade deals they will have to leave the customs union. For the UK to have the power to control the immigration from the EU they will have no access to the single market and not have any free movement of goods.

How is that the UK not wanting a hard Brexit?

Nody

Enzokk wrote: »

Wait, if you listened to what she wants it is to make their own trade deals and to control immigration. The rest of it was just there around those two principals as a, we would also like this.

For the UK to have the power to negotiate their own trade deals they will have to leave the customs union. For the UK to have the power to control the immigration from the EU they will have no access to the single market and not have any free movement of goods.

How is that the UK not wanting a hard Brexit?

Other way around; first priority is to stop immigration as she failed to do so in her previous role she now wants a second take on it like Bush junior's invasion of Iraq to finish Bush senior's failure to kill Sadam. She wants reduced EU immigration and wants reduced non EU immigration (which was always under their control but she was to incompetent to actually do anything about it) and everything else comes from that position of lower immigration first and foremost no matter the consequences.

Which is why things such as an Indian free trade agreement is never going to happen (India insist on more visas which May has already shut that down and insisted instead India takes more people back!) which is ok but because first priority is limit immigration and nothing else matters. She can then go to the next election on that pulling the UKIP voters with her and leave the failing economy to her predecessor to deal with once it catches up with her.