Brexit Referendum Superthread

Havockk

Lemming wrote: »

You're only figuring that out now?

The only "good" thing to come out of the brexit farce over the last few days was the entertaining gem of a speech by Ken Clarke and his reference to Alice in Wonderland.

Well, truth be told I've had my suspicions, however the continuing amateur nature of their antics continues to surprise. Monboit had a really interesting article in the Guardian, the gist of which was that corporate dark-money was at the root of Brexit and indeed Trump, and it has a ring of truth about it, anyway it's worth a read.

However, I think they have seriously miscalculated what the electorate have voted for, and the promises they are making are not going to be forgot and if what Monibot is saying is in fact true then it ain't going to end well. May is still promoting a 'fairer' society as is Trump and neither can deliver that.

Zubeneschamali

Havockk wrote: »

May is still promoting a 'fairer' society

When a Tory says "fairer society" they mean poor people should stop being mean to Tories who have gold-plated duck houses on the island in the moat of their castle.

Peregrinus

Nody wrote: »

So May's white paper is out and these are the highlights I see . . .

The interesting bits are not so much the highlights as the still unresolved contradictions and tensions.

Couple of thoughts:

On the one hand, the “Great Repeal Bill” (bit of a misnomer since it now appears that it’s not going to repeal very much) will convert the existing body of EU law into domestic UK law, so existing rules will continue to apply unless and until the UK authorities get around to changing them. This won’t please the more radical Brexiters but, in practical terms, it’s the only way to go. It will take years for the UK authorities to review and adapt the body of UK law into regular domestic UK Acts and Statutory Instruments.

On the other hand, in the interests of “taking control of our own laws” the UK will end the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union within the UK.

This is going to lead to some odd results. A huge body of EU law will still have the force of law in the UK. But the same law will remain in force in 27 other countries, and the authoritative interpreter of that body of law will be the CJEU. The result is that the CJEU will (in cases brought in the EU-27) be handing down rulings on the meaning, scope, effect, etc of a vast body of law that applies in the UK. These rulings won’t be binding on the UK courts, of course, but it’s very had to see how they can be other than very persuasive. The result is that CJEU rulings are still going to have considerable influence in the UK, but UK citizens (and the UK government) will have no access to the CJEU to challenge its rulings, seek clarification, etc. That’s not going to be a problem in the short term but, over time, the fact that the CJEU rules still have influence in the UK but the UK cannot participate in the CJEU is going to cause increasingly widespread irritation/inconvenience.

As regards travel, the UK government is committed to “protecting the Common Travel Area” and having “as seamless and frictionless a border as possible” between RoI and NI. But they also insist that “we must ensure we can control the number of people coming to the UK from the EU”, and that “it is simply not possible to control immigration overall when there is unlimited free movement of people to the UK from the EU”.

In this thread we have already noted more than once that there’s a huge and obvious tension between the UK government’s position on the CTA/the NI-RoI border and its position on immigration. What’s striking about this White Paper is that it completely fails to recognise that there is any tension there at all. Aspirations regarding Ireland and aspirations regarding travel/migration are set out in adjacent chapters, but the authors of each of these chapters appear to be wholly unaware of what is in the other. You would expect a White Paper at least to acknowledge the tension, and to give some hint as to the approach to be taken in resolving it. But no.

Interestingly, the discussion of the possible customs arrangements that might be made between the UK and the EU does note the difficulty of keeping the RoI/NO border “seamless and frictionless”, even if it gives no hint as to how that will be achieved (para 8.49). But the discussion on migration in Chapter 5 doesn’t even acknowledge that there is an issue to be addressed.

demfad

The whitepaper was handed to the opposition two minutes before the debate started.

How is the UK going to complete the complex task of Brexit in two years, when it cannot produce a half-decent White Paper after six months?

djpbarry

Deleted User wrote: »

50 extra days holidays?

I'll believe it when I see it splashed on the side of a bus.

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

The interesting bits are not so much the highlights as the still unresolved contradictions and tensions.


As regards travel, the UK government is committed to “protecting the Common Travel Area” and having “as seamless and frictionless a border as possible” between RoI and NI. But they also insist that “we must ensure we can control the number of people coming to the UK from the EU”, and that “it is simply not possible to control immigration overall when there is unlimited free movement of people to the UK from the EU”.

In this thread we have already noted more than once that there’s a huge and obvious tension between the UK government’s position on the CTA/the NI-RoI border and its position on immigration. What’s striking about this White Paper is that it completely fails to recognise that there is any tension there at all. Aspirations regarding Ireland and aspirations regarding travel/migration are set out in adjacent chapters, but the authors of each of these chapters appear to be wholly unaware of what is in the other. You would expect a White Paper at least to acknowledge the tension, and to give some hint as to the approach to be taken in resolving it. But no.

Interestingly, the discussion of the possible customs arrangements that might be made between the UK and the EU does note the difficulty of keeping the RoI/NO border “seamless and frictionless”, even if it gives no hint as to how that will be achieved (para 8.49). But the discussion on migration in Chapter 5 doesn’t even acknowledge that there is an issue to be addressed.

The CTA problem can be solved if both Britain and Ireland agreed to a requirement for all citizens and residents to be issued with an ID card. Free movement would then be simple, and illegal migrants, not having a valid ID, are easy to detect.

Customs is a more complex problem. Imports into NI could be ignored by the UK, with imports from the UK proving a greater problem. Not sure how that can be solved easily, but trans-shipments could be handled by TIR system that prevailed before the single market. [Sealed trucks transit through the UK].

djpbarry

Sam Russell wrote: »

The CTA problem can be solved if both Britain and Ireland agreed to a requirement for all citizens and residents to be issued with an ID card.

Never going to happen. Britain tried about ten years ago and there was uproar. Infringement of civil liberties and all that.

murphaph

Sam Russell wrote: »

Customs is a more complex problem. Imports into NI could be ignored by the UK

I don't think this will fly. If tariffs are applied as they presumably will be, then it will be far too lucrative to send high value goods via the RoI->NI->GB. Cars especially if they end up with a 10% tariff will be worthwhile sending by the back door. Shipping containers hide their contents well so if there are no customs checks it will be impossible to see what's coming in via the back door.

Dont be at yourself

There has to be customs and immigration controls into Northern Ireland from the EU, and vice versa. Otherwise Northern Ireland would be transformed from basket case of the UK into one of the most lucrative marketplaces in the world, with both unfettered access to the EU, and to the rest of the UK, benefiting from whatever trade deals they manage to wrangle with the rest of the world.

Sam Russell

djpbarry wrote: »

Never going to happen. Britain tried about ten years ago and there was uproar. Infringement of civil liberties and all that.

They are in a different place now. They want control over immigrants, they do not want illegals, so give everyone an ID card. They do not want Jihadists either, give everyone an ID card.

murphaph wrote: »

I don't think this will fly. If tariffs are applied as they presumably will be, then it will be far too lucrative to send high value goods via the RoI->NI->GB. Cars especially if they end up with a 10% tariff will be worthwhile sending by the back door. Shipping containers hide their contents well so if there are no customs checks it will be impossible to see what's coming in via the back door.

That is not what I am suggesting (if I am suggesting anything).

There would have to be control over imports into GB from Ireland, so also from NI if they ignore the border for tariffs - not likely, but smuggling would be rife anyway.

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

There has to be customs and immigration controls into Northern Ireland from the EU, and vice versa. Otherwise Northern Ireland would be transformed from basket case of the UK into one of the most lucrative marketplaces in the world, with both unfettered access to the EU, and to the rest of the UK, benefiting from whatever trade deals they manage to wrangle with the rest of the world.

There would have to be controls for imports into Ireland, but it is upto the UK Government how they handle NI.

I do not have a solution as it is basically intractable unless NI joins Ireland in some sort of union - which is very unlikely even if the offer from the UK is a disaster for them.

djpbarry

Sam Russell wrote: »

They are in a different place now. They want control over immigrants, they do not want illegals, so give everyone an ID card. They do not want Jihadists either, give everyone an ID card.

They’ve always been in that place. The only difference now is they think they’ve taken back control. Proposing that everyone carry ID cards will be as unpopular as it’s ever been.

Forcing Johnny Foreigner to carry an ID card would be absolutely fine, of course.

I can actually remember having a pub “discussion” with someone here in London, who insisted that immigrants should absolutely have to carry ID at all times. He was adamant though that it would be ridiculous to force the natives to do the same - “what’s the point - how can Brits be here illegally? Waste of money.” I obviously pointed out that the whole idea behind such a system is to be able to determine who someone is, British or otherwise - you can’t know prior to checking their ID. He retorted with “you can obviously tell if someone is British - you don’t need an ID card to prove it.” I’ve heard the same nonsense about access to healthcare - foreigners should have to pay, but not Brits and only the foreigners have to prove they’re not foreign.

murphaph

Sam Russell wrote: »

That is not what I am suggesting (if I am suggesting anything).

There would have to be control over imports into GB from Ireland, so also from NI if they ignore the border for tariffs - not likely, but smuggling would be rife anyway.


I do not have a solution as it is basically intractable unless NI joins Ireland in some sort of union - which is very unlikely even if the offer from the UK is a disaster for them.

Yeah there is no easy solution. I think we will be looking at a border with permanent customs checks on "approved roads" and random customs checks on unapproved roads but they will not be able to close up unapproved roads or the troubles will start again and they don't want bombings on the mainland again, whatever about NI.

Smuggling will indeed be absolutely rife no matter what is implemented. NI is "well placed" to profit from this activity and has "experience"

I think they might be able to get away with pushing immigration checks back to GB ports of entry and maintain a CTA between Ireland north and south but the CTA between Ireland and Britain is definitely dead as Ireland will be (rightfully) an open door to our EU neighbours.

djpbarry

murphaph wrote: »

I think we will be looking at a border with permanent customs checks on "approved roads" and random customs checks on unapproved roads but they will not be able to close up unapproved roads or the troubles will start again...

Absolutely anything that even hints at the presence of a border, even a camera, will be viewed as a legitimate target by dissident Republicans.

murphaph

djpbarry wrote: »

Absolutely anything that even hints at the presence of a border, even a camera, will be viewed as a legitimate target by dissident Republicans.

No arguments here. There is no optimal solution. I think I'll apply for German citizenship next week. The whole thing is such a mess that I wouldn't even rule out Ireland leaving the EU to maintain an open border.

Lemming

Sam Russell wrote: »

They are in a different place now. They want control over immigrants, they do not want illegals, so give everyone an ID card. They do not want Jihadists either, give everyone an ID card.

Every time a Uk government has mulled the re-introduction of ID cards there has been fierce resistance. The concept is deeply unpopular and is a throwback hangover to the excesses of the system from WW2 that was kept long into the 1950s. You also forget that only some of the electorate is for what you have said above, but not even half. And the country is deeply divided on everything to do with Wrexsh1t anyway.

murphaph wrote: »

I think they might be able to get away with pushing immigration checks back to GB ports of entry and maintain a CTA between Ireland north and south but the CTA between Ireland and Britain is definitely dead as Ireland will be (rightfully) an open door to our EU neighbours.

That will cause an ungodly political smell between Westminister and the Unionists. Westminister could railroad it through anyway (and probably would given it's all about English nationalism now) but there would be political fallout and a souring of the hithero-unshakeable relationship between unionists and the UK government.

ancapailldorcha

murphaph wrote: »

No arguments here. There is no optimal solution. I think I'll apply for German citizenship next week. The whole thing is such a mess that I wouldn't even rule out Ireland leaving the EU to maintain an open border.

No chance. Ireland is far too heavily dependent on foreign investment which is tired to our EU membership.

murphaph

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

No chance. Ireland is far too heavily dependent on foreign investment which is tired to our EU membership.

Let's see how messy things get. Obviously I hope it doesn't come to pass but I honestly would no longer rule it out.

There are loads of idiots in Ireland that blame the EU for all our ills. Seems to have largely replaced Britain in that regard.

CrabRevolution

murphaph wrote: »

Let's see how messy things get. Obviously I hope it doesn't come to pass but I honestly would no longer rule it out.

There are loads of idiots in Ireland that blame the EU for all our ills. Seems to have largely replaced Britain in that regard.

Who would lead the call for Ireland to leave?

The UK have had political parties dedicated to leaving the EU since day one, with the BNP and UKIP getting huge press coverage and a small bit of electoral success, Even then the vote to leave barely scraped through. In Ireland we haven't anything close to that level of euroscepticism. Sinn Féin tend to fight against the treaties and powers of the EU, but have never once suggested leaving.

The only political parties who'd push for leave would be the likes of PBP, who are anti everything in general and will never be within spitting distance of power in the Dáil.

Very very little public will for it either: http://www.newstalk.com/Brexit-Ireland-opinion-poll-Britain-economy-Northern-Ireland-referendum-EU

ancapailldorcha

murphaph wrote: »

Let's see how messy things get. Obviously I hope it doesn't come to pass but I honestly would no longer rule it out.

There are loads of idiots in Ireland that blame the EU for all our ills. Seems to have largely replaced Britain in that regard.

I don't see any Irish mainstream Eurosceptic parties fortunately.

ancapailldorcha

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Who would lead the call for Ireland to leave?

The UK have had political parties dedicated to leaving the EU since day one, with the BNP and UKIP getting huge press coverage and a small bit of electoral success, Even then the vote to leave barely scraped through. In Ireland we haven't anything close to that level of euroscepticism. Sinn Féin tend to fight against the treaties and powers of the EU, but have never once suggested leaving.

The only political parties who'd push for leave would be the likes of PBP, who are anti everything in general and will never be within spitting distance of power in the Dáil.

Very very little public will for it either: http://www.newstalk.com/Brexit-Ireland-opinion-poll-Britain-economy-Northern-Ireland-referendum-EU

I'd agree with most of this save for pointing out that the BNP have all but disappeared which is remarkable considering the referendum. It's likely UKIP provided them with a socially respectable veneer.

Your link is something I find reassuring. I'm not advocating blind love for the EU but recognition that it's largely better for Ireland to remain than to leave.

murphaph

Maybe I just have too many clowns on my Facebook feed. Still gonna stick in the application for German citizenship. I'm here long enough that they have to grant it and I can keep my Irish one.

ancapailldorcha

murphaph wrote: »

Maybe I just have too many clowns on my Facebook feed. Still gonna stick in the application for German citizenship. I'm here long enough that they have to grant it and I can keep my Irish one.

How much is it out of curiosity? The British one is over £1,200.

KingBrian2

The problem with Ireland is not Euroscpetism per se it is that all the parties have to appeal to voters who have been given a raw deal by European policy makers. We need a coherent Irish policy that lets it be known we will cooperate with Europe on issues that matter to us and won't have it all their own way.

oscarBravo

KingBrian2 wrote: »

We need a coherent Irish policy that lets it be known we will cooperate with Europe on issues that matter to us and won't have it all their own way.

That sounds like our current policy.

ancapailldorcha

KingBrian2 wrote: »

The problem with Ireland is not Euroscpetism per se it is that all the parties have to appeal to voters who have been given a raw deal by European policy makers. We need a coherent Irish policy that lets it be known we will cooperate with Europe on issues that matter to us and won't have it all their own way.

Who has received a raw deal from European policymakers?

KingBrian2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Who has received a raw deal from European policymakers?

Many of the working class communities in Ireland who emigrated following the crash. They certainly don't appreciate the EU and decisions make at the top when it came to Irish banks in particular the deposit holders in the banks.

ancapailldorcha

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Many of the working class communities in Ireland who emigrated following the crash. They certainly don't appreciate the EU and decisions make at the top when it came to Irish banks in particular the deposit holders in the banks.

Can you be more specific please?

KingBrian2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Can you be more specific please?

We don't need to be anti-Europe but we could have negotiated from a position of strength the terms of the bank deals. The bulk of European debt was kept in Ireland and not shared among the member states of the Eurozone.

Nody

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Many of the working class communities in Ireland who emigrated following the crash. They certainly don't appreciate the EU and decisions make at the top when it came to Irish banks in particular the deposit holders in the banks.

You mean the part where Irish regulation authorities failed to enforce Irish rules set out by the Irish central bank and Irish government on the risk they should be allowed to take in Ireland? But yes; that was all EU's fault for Ireland failing to enforce their own rules and let the banks run around doing what ever they wanted with a wink wink nudge nudge and brown envelope under the table at the horse races.

Professor Moriarty

KingBrian2 wrote: »

We don't need to be anti-Europe but we could have negotiated from a position of strength the terms of the bank deals. The bulk of European debt was kept in Ireland and not shared among the member states of the Eurozone.

They could also have cut us adrift. We can blame Europe for our property bubble and our personal debts but we signed on the dotted line for all those loans.