Brexit Referendum Superthread

catbear

Calina wrote: »

But it does not matter a damn what Thatcher wanted 30 years ago. That was thirty years ago and this is now. She is dead for God's sake.

What is this tendency people have to fetishize the past and wonder what long dead people would be doing? It is bad enough to be listening to was it for this the men of 1916 died and how Pearse wouldn't have stood for something the interlocutor doesn't like but you are doing it to Thatcher? Projecting onto dead people? Are you all politiconecrophiliacs?

Is it in the UK's interest to Brexit? All other things remaining equal, it is not economically wise, no. But the Brexit campaigners scream blue murder about how it is not about economics and expect the EU to make its decision purely about economics.

But it is nothing other than fantasy to be projecting your ideas and dreams onto Margaret Thatcher because she is dead. The youth of the UK broadly voted in favour of remaining in the EU. Perhaps more attention could be given to their hopes and wants. After all they will be the ones living with this decision. Look to the future and stop second guessing dead people.

Well we have no choice but to think of ourselves. The UK may change how they feel about brexiting as the their economy adjusts.

First Up

Calina wrote:

But it does not matter a damn what Thatcher wanted 30 years ago. That was thirty years ago and this is now. She is dead for God's sake.

She is a bit of a tangent but when Blair emerged to talk about Brexit, the subject of British PMs came up, hence Thatcher.

But you are right; we need to deal with the current lot.

demfad

Liz Truss saying A50 is irrevocable, which goes against what Lord Kerr (drafted A50), and Donald Tusk say.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/article-50-liz-truss-irrevocable-theresa-may-brexit-lord-kerr2017-2

The Govt refused to second this saying 'it doesn't matter anyway' (they are leaving no matter what).

Criminally negligent to not care about the law on this issue. A safety valve actually makes the UKs negotiating position stronger.

No matter, jo Maughams Dublin case will find out what should have been responsibly known before they even decided to hold a referendum.

KingBrian2

Calina wrote: »

But it does not matter a damn what Thatcher wanted 30 years ago. That was thirty years ago and this is now. She is dead for God's sake.

What is this tendency people have to fetishize the past and wonder what long dead people would be doing? It is bad enough to be listening to was it for this the men of 1916 died and how Pearse wouldn't have stood for something the interlocutor doesn't like but you are doing it to Thatcher? Projecting onto dead people? Are you all politiconecrophiliacs?

Is it in the UK's interest to Brexit? All other things remaining equal, it is not economically wise, no. But the Brexit campaigners scream blue murder about how it is not about economics and expect the EU to make its decision purely about economics.

But it is nothing other than fantasy to be projecting your ideas and dreams onto Margaret Thatcher because she is dead. The youth of the UK broadly voted in favour of remaining in the EU. Perhaps more attention could be given to their hopes and wants. After all they will be the ones living with this decision. Look to the future and stop second guessing dead people.

Many of the people who served or supported her back then are still alive. They did not suddenly vanish after she left. Older generation UK voters and the English working classes voted out as they had no jobs told lies from the press and see Europe as an irritant which is a long standing view expressed by multiple British diplomats in Europe.

As stated on Wikipedia Britain has opted out from 4 vital areas of the EU. Not a sign of a country that really values its membership.

catbear

KingBrian2 wrote: »

As stated on Wikipedia Britain has opted out from 4 vital areas of the EU. Not a sign of a country that really values its membership.

And yet the nation with the most opt outs when a member expects opt ins after it leaves!

They have no idea of how their behaviour is only hardening attitudes towards them.

Sam Russell

catbear wrote: »

And yet the nation with the most opt outs when a member expects opt ins after it leaves!

They have no idea of how their behaviour is only hardening attitudes towards them.

I find it almost laughable that during the Scottish referendum, the UKists warned a vote for independence was a vote to leave the EU. It turns out, a vote to remain within the UK was a vote to leave the EU. The same crowd who want to leave the EU would not want Scotland to do the same to the UK.

So, based on lies, the UK remains intact (for the moment) and leaves the EU to an uncertain future. (Well certain aspects are, well, certain - reduced wealth and reduced influence in the world).

ambro25

demfad wrote: »

Liz Truss saying A50 is irrevocable, which goes against what Lord Kerr (drafted A50), and Donald Tusk say.

<...>

The Govt refused to second this saying 'it doesn't matter anyway' (they are leaving no matter what).

Criminally negligent to not care about the law on this issue. A safety valve actually makes the UKs negotiating position stronger.

From the British "no deal is better than a bad deal" point of view, I'm not so sure that it does. Remember that we're now clearly dealing with ideologues, not pragmatists - at least on paper/in PR terms.

That said, I wonder what's been happening to the British 'cake-having and -eating' school of economic diplomacy. Is it just me, or have BoJo & Fox been silenced a fair while now? Might there be more to the government refusal to back Truss than meets the eye?

catbear wrote: »

They have no idea of how their behaviour is only hardening attitudes towards them.

Amen to that, at the grassroots level at least.

I'm active on another British forum with general topics and political threads, and the (not too biased) pro Leave on there, which I'd venture are reasonably representative of the average (pro Leave) man on the street, expect to just waltz in there, get their deal fast (and without a divorce bill) and just carry on as if nothing's happened.

Any mention of the EU taking a strongly pragmatic approach to the forthcoming negotiations (with a smidgeon of ideology, to be sure), IMHO expected to result in not a whole lot of cake at all and still less eating of it for the UK, is just wavy-handed away on the same old 'they need us more than we need them, they'll disintegrate within days otherwise, but-but-but-Greece, the € is doomed <etc.>'.

There's just no getting them to understand the level of unity that's been building up across EU member states for the past few months, for love or money.

Try and explain to them the potential relevance of what is not said, when PSA and GM release statements like "Opel jobs in Germany are safe" (without any mention of, or even allusion to, the sibling Vauxhall jobs in the UK) and I might as well pee in a violin to try and get a tune. They're like the fabled skyscraper jumper saying 'so far, so good' as each floor passes by on the freefalling way down.

demfad

ambro25 wrote: »

From the British "no deal is better than a bad deal" point of view, I'm not so sure that it does. Remember that we're now clearly dealing with ideologues, not pragmatists - at least on paper/in PR terms.

The no deal better than a bad deal approach has been thoroughly discredited since. May does not even believe it herself.
But they want to get Brexit through no matter what, and having the option to revoke flies against that because there is a huge possibility that staying will be clearly demonstrated to be the superior option than taking a bad deal.

The British cannot take 'no-deal' because it will send their economy into crises. Literally they will have no regulatory body for goods etc. and under International law, goods would have to be tested leading to chaos. Also, There are 32 regulatory bodies that come under the ECJ. Not having those replaced would lead to legal chaos. Apart from the legal side you need to employ people to run these bodies. Deloitte estimated it at 30,000 extra civil servants. The no-deal option isnt on, Europe knows it and can push a better deal for the EU knowing the UK MUST deal.

Fox has no job because you cannot legally start trade negotiations until after the UK has exited. No-one believes the pretence now.

Once A50 is triggerred all the power passes over to the EU.

catbear

demfad wrote: »

But they want to get Brexit through no matter what, and having the option to revoke flies against that because there is a huge possibility that staying will be clearly demonstrated to be the superior option than taking a bad deal.

I can't see them backing down from here.

The Tories have their ass covered because no matter how bad things get economically they'll always say they were upholding democracy.

Plus they can focus peoples ire over the economic consequences at UKip.

ads20101

I would just like to start by saying that I don't believe that brexit will make the UK stronger. If I still lived over there I would've voted against it.

However, it does appear that they are going to leave no matter what.

The UK have taken the only stance they could. You see, if they stated that they wanted to be part of the common travel area or have access to the single market then this would've arguably handed the negotiation advantage to Europe. By taking a 'hard brexit' stance from the get-go it put several large European countries on the backfoot as they trade massively with the UK, and as such they will have to negotiate with the UK to access this 64M pop market.

You may argue that countries like Germany will just move there trade elsewhere, and to be honest there may be political support here, but big business won't allow this. They will lobby hard to ensure that their profits are not adversely effected.

The UK on the other hand appear prepared to drop to WTO tariffs. If they were to offset the funds that they payed to the EU to subsidise UK business then the potential drop will not be as harsh for the UK.

Unfortunately, there are issues that do not bode well for the UK. Firstly, and probably most importantly, the UK has damaged the EU by leaving, probably far more than most in Europe will currently admit. The EU has to ensure that the UK does not get a good deal, in fact there is a school of thought that they have to be punished in order that an example will set. The EU has to show to its existing members that leaving has serious negative consequences.

For that reason, I feel that despite all of the big business lobbying, the EU are politically, quite willing to 'cut off their nose to spite their face'.

Even if the UK does negotiate a deal, I honestly don't feel it will last. EU / UK trade will drop significantly over the next decade as the market adapts.

This puts Ireland's future in a somewhat precarious position going forward.

ambro25

demfad wrote: »

The no deal better than a bad deal approach has been thoroughly discredited since. May does not even believe it herself.

I'm still unconvinced.

Noises in the 'serious' Continental media, is that May & Co. have been busy trying on the same old, same old divide-and-conquer Tory tricks on the quiet in European capitals, but that EU peeps are wise to them.

And yet, nothing like that heard over here yet (I'm in the UK), unless I've missed it.

It may well be that May does not believe in the 'no deal' alternative...but as with the end-of-March Article 50 instrument depositing deadline, she's not left herself a whole load of political manoeuvring room if the EU ends up tearing the UK a new commercial one.

demfad wrote: »

But they want to get Brexit through no matter what, and having the option to revoke flies against that because there is a huge possibility that staying will be clearly demonstrated to be the superior option than taking a bad deal.

I wouldn't put it past May & Co. to re-run the whole 'Project Fear' discrediting exercise, and get away with it.

demfad wrote: »

Once A50 is triggerred all the power passes over to the EU.

Oh, I'm well aware of that, demfad.

But the problem as I see it, is the volume of political dissonance in the UK that is still drowning socio-economical reality and common sense 7 months on.

Never mind telling many Brits that the UK is slowly haemorrhaging talent already, you can show them EU and non-EU HNWI filing out the door with wags and luggage and explain to them lengthways and sideways why that is and what the short/medium/long-term consequences are..."economy's fine, there's not been any recession or drama, we'll be alright, we're gonna make Britain great again".

It's not UKIP the Tories will blame when it all goes south: who else but the EU of course, which wanted to 'punish the UK' and so did not give a 'fair deal' ( 'fair' by UK self-serving standards, of course)

wes

catbear wrote: »

I can't see them backing down from here.

The Tories have their ass covered because no matter how bad things get economically they'll always say they were upholding democracy.

Plus they can focus peoples ire over the economic consequences at UKip.

While I do agree that the Tories share a lot of the blame, the fact of the matter, is that the people who voted for Brexit are as much to blame. Its about time that the electorate recognise, they get the government they vote for, and those who voted for Brexit, are getting what they wanted. So they share more of the blame imho.

catbear

ads20101 wrote: »

Unfortunately, there are issues that do not bode well for the UK. Firstly, and probably most importantly, the UK has damaged the EU by leaving, probably far more than most in Europe will currently admit. The EU has to ensure that the UK does not get a good deal, in fact there is a school of thought that they have to be punished in order that an example will set. The EU has to show to its existing members that leaving has serious negative consequences.

For that reason, I feel that despite all of the big business lobbying, the EU are politically, quite willing to 'cut off their nose to spite their face'.

Even if the UK does negotiate a deal, I honestly don't feel it will last. EU / UK trade will drop significantly over the next decade as the market adapts.

This puts Ireland's future in a somewhat precarious position going forward.

I broadly disagree. The nation with the most opt outs is leaving over the issue of freedom of movement. The EU could never appease this demand with lives increasingly lived across borders now the norm.

If the UK feels punished when the EU puts EU interests first then the UK is in a for a major surprise back out in the world.

Respecting the UK desire to disassociate is not cutting off their nose to spite their face. The EU is a voluntary union, amply demonstrated by the acceptance of the UKs decision to leave. Notice not on nation pleaded for the UK to stay.

Irish trade has long being growing beyond the UK market, from nearly 90% in 73 to only 14% as an export destination now.

The only precarious situation for Ireland is the peace process.

Zubeneschamali

ads20101 wrote: »

By taking a 'hard brexit' stance from the get-go it put several large European countries on the backfoot as they trade massively with the UK, and as such they will have to negotiate with the UK to access this 64M pop market.

Trade will not stop just because of a hard Brexit - tariffs and customs barriers will just make it a bit more expensive, volumes and profits will drop a bit. This is much less of an issue for EU businesses than UK ones, and everyone knows it.

The UK threatening "no deal" is just the boyfriend who threatens to kill himself if she won't take him back.

ads20101

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The UK threatening "no deal" is just the boyfriend who threatens to kill himself if she won't take him back.

Love the analogy.

demfad

ambro25 wrote: »

I'm still unconvinced.

Noises in the 'serious' Continental media, is that May & Co. have been busy trying on the same old, same old divide-and-conquer Tory tricks on the quiet in European capitals, but that EU peeps are wise to them.

And yet, nothing like that heard over here yet (I'm in the UK), unless I've missed it.

It may well be that May does not believe in the 'no deal' alternative...but as with the end-of-March Article 50 instrument depositing deadline, she's not left herself a whole load of political manoeuvring room if the EU ends up tearing the UK a new commercial one.
I wouldn't put it past May & Co. to re-run the whole 'Project Fear' discrediting exercise, and get away with it.
Oh, I'm well aware of that, demfad.

But the problem as I see it, is the volume of political dissonance in the UK that is still drowning socio-economical reality and common sense 7 months on.

Never mind telling many Brits that the UK is slowly haemorrhaging talent already, you can show them EU and non-EU HNWI filing out the door with wags and luggage and explain to them lengthways and sideways why that is and what the short/medium/long-term consequences are..."economy's fine, there's not been any recession or drama, we'll be alright, we're gonna make Britain great again".

It's not UKIP the Tories will blame when it all goes south: who else but the EU of course, which wanted to 'punish the UK' and so did not give a 'fair deal' ( 'fair' by UK self-serving standards, of course)

The world is volatile at the moment. There may be unforseen shocks that could massively change public opinion.

A massive Trumplosion (impeachment, Huge N11 style investigation into Russia ties, Potential espionage trial) could massively affect the UK's view on Brexit.
In particular the big-data company Cambridge Analytica was used for both campaigns and would almost certainly be investigated in the given scenario.
If it was found to be dodgy (see link: created propaganda network, subcontracted Russian trolls) then a UK investigation would follow. The CIA are interested in UKIP already apparently.
This combined with poor economic outlook might change matters or at least force a deciding election.

wes

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The UK threatening "no deal" is just the boyfriend who threatens to kill himself if she won't take him back.

We should call there bluff imho. Let them go with no deal, if that is what they want.

demfad

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Trade will not stop just because of a hard Brexit - tariffs and customs barriers will just make it a bit more expensive, volumes and profits will drop a bit. This is much less of an issue for EU businesses than UK ones, and everyone knows it.

The UK threatening "no deal" is just the boyfriend who threatens to kill himself if she won't take him back.

Yep, putting the gun to his head and shouting out demands!

ambro25

demfad wrote: »

The world is volatile at the moment. There may be unforseen shocks that could massively change public opinion.

A massive Trumplosion (impeachment, Huge N11 style investigation into Russia ties, Potential espionage trial) could massively affect the UK's view on Brexit.
In particular the big-data company Cambridge Analytica was used for both campaigns and would almost certainly be investigated in the given scenario.
If it was found to be dodgy (see link: created propaganda network, subcontracted Russian trolls) then a UK investigation would follow. The CIA are interested in UKIP already apparently.
This combined with poor economic outlook might change matters or at least force a deciding election.

I hear you well, and thank you for the link...but when I see how the debunked-the-day-after £350m did not sink them, nor has Theresa May's Ronaldoesque can-kicking performance since then, nor is Nuttall's antics looking like sinking UKIP, I'm just not sure that splash damage in the UK from a Trumplosion would achieve any more or better.

Maybe I've just grown too pessimistic.

What do I care anyway: it's Amsterdam, Luxemburg or <somewhere in> France for me before long.

catbear

ambro25 wrote: »

Maybe I've just grown too pessimistic.

You're being realistic. I regularly have to explain to Brits that Northern Ireland is part of the UK.

Lemming

ambro25 wrote: »

Noises in the 'serious' Continental media, is that May & Co. have been busy trying on the same old, same old divide-and-conquer Tory tricks on the quiet in European capitals, but that EU peeps are wise to them.

And yet, nothing like that heard over here yet (I'm in the UK), unless I've missed it.

It's not you; it's been staggeringly quiet of late, other than the latest peep which brought people's attention to EU nations taking a dim view on the centuries old British Empire diplomacy tactic of "divide & rule".

It may well be that May does not believe in the 'no deal' alternative...but as with the end-of-March Article 50 instrument depositing deadline, she's not left herself a whole load of political manoeuvring room if the EU ends up tearing the UK a new commercial one.

I am convinced of two things; firstly that May is absolutely craven. She has allowed herself to be beaten into a corner by a select group of Tory idealogues and is pandering to them for an easy life. Compounded by the fact that she brought several home-office colleagues with her to 10 Downing St resulting in a very home-office-centric office that was almost exclusively preoccupied with immigration (and failed dismallly whilst cutting funding for same) during her tenure. She can't see past her own nose and as one long-standing, high-ranking civil servant remarked that seldom have they encountered a [then home-office] minister so lacking in imagination or ability to see past their own opinion.

Secondly, this attempting to sniff out cracks in EU circles - given how blatantly clumsy, unsophisticated and ergo obvious - is a desperate attempt to give herself wiggle room to escape the rod she has made for her own back.


.... Or a possible third option - given her apparent inabililty to be imaginatively creative, she is simply inept when it comes to matter foreign & diplomatic.

swampgas

Johnson raising hackles in Europe again:

Johnson was taken to task by a Swedish MEP for repeatedly using the term "liberation" when talking about the UK leaving the EU. His answer is crass and bombastic. The Foreign Office staff must grimace at his effortless ability to cause offense.

This is the foreign minister of a UK that is looking for a sweetheart deal from the EU. What a shambles.

wes

swampgas wrote: »

Johnson raising hackles in Europe again:

Johnson was taken to task by a Swedish MEP for repeatedly using the term "liberation" when talking about the UK leaving the EU. His answer is crass and bombastic. The Foreign Office staff must grimace at his effortless ability to cause offense.

This is the foreign minister of a UK that is looking for a sweetheart deal from the EU. What a shambles.

Especially bad coming from a country that so many other countries had be liberated from. I do have to wonder if Johnson is an idiot or doing this on purpose at this point. I don't see Brexit ending well for anyone at this point.

FrancieBrady

wes wrote: »

Especially bad coming from a country that so many other countries had be liberated from. I do have to wonder if Johnson is an idiot or doing this on purpose at this point. I don't see Brexit ending well for anyone at this point.

I don't see the 'start' of actual Brexit being good for either the UK or the EU, but I think with the weight around it's neck and principal whinger gone the future is brighter for the EU.

catbear

wes wrote: »

Especially bad coming from a country that so many other countries had be liberated from. I do have to wonder if Johnson is an idiot or doing this on purpose at this point. I don't see Brexit ending well for anyone at this point.

The British class system requires that the ruling class must condescend to the middle and lower classes. Obviously the old porterhouse system described in Tom Sharpe novels is mostly gone but Johnston is a walking relic of that system where facts are secondary to sounding correct.

I mean straight bananas, what's that about? What's wrong with bendy bananas. EU rules gone mad.....etc....

Lemming

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't see the 'start' of actual Brexit being good for either the UK or the EU, but I think with the weight around it's neck and principal whinger gone the future is brighter for the EU.

There has already been estimations that the EU might finally be able to strike a trade-deal with India if/when the UK leaves. That'll be an obscene amount of egg on May's face.

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

There has already been estimations that the EU might finally be able to strike a trade-deal with India if/when the UK leaves. That'll be an obscene amount of egg on May's face.

That's a fair point though I'm not sure how much the pro-Brexit faction of the Tory party and UKIP really care about trade deals. The classical liberals who voted for more sovereignty will be disappointed but I think they're very much in a minority.

catbear

Australian minister Julie Bishop says Australia hopes to start trades with the EU soon but talks with the UK would have to wait until A50 is finished. Cited Ireland as been in a great position for australian companies to access the EU.

swampgas

The Observer is reporting that Robert Mercer and Cambridge Analytica were providing data analysis for the Brexit Leave.eu campaign.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/26/us-billionaire-mercer-helped-back-brexit

And Trump was dining out with (among others) Nigel Farage, away from the press last night.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/trump-dines-own-hotel-press-pool-235401

The links between Trump and Bannon and the Brexit campaign are disturbing.

stefanovich

Are all 458 pages of this thread people fantasising about how badly Brexit is going to be for the UK? The UK is doing pretty well at the moment as far as I can see.