Brexit Referendum Superthread

Nate--IRL--

stefanovich wrote: »

Are all 458 pages of this thread people fantasising about how badly Brexit is going to be for the UK? The UK is doing pretty well at the moment as far as I can see.

Let see what happens when Brexit occurs.

Nate

A Dub in Glasgo

stefanovich wrote: »

Are all 458 pages of this thread people fantasising about how badly Brexit is going to be for the UK?

Why don't you read them and tell us?

Article 50 has not even been implemented yet

stefanovich

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Why don't you read them and tell us?

Article 50 has not even been implemented yet

I started and got quite fed up. The majority seem to desire a bad outcome for the UK. I think just to be proved right.

stefanovich

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Let see what happens when Brexit occurs.

Nate

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Why don't you read them and tell us?

Article 50 has not even been implemented yet

It's funny 'cause when the market's reacted after the vote all the remoaners were saying "See?, It's falling apart already". When what happened in reality was that some nervous coked up investor thought he might lose some money.

swampgas

stefanovich wrote: »

Are all 458 pages of this thread people fantasising about how badly Brexit is going to be for the UK? The UK is doing pretty well at the moment as far as I can see.

The answer is in your own question - the bulk of the impact from Brexit hasn't happened yet.

stefanovich

swampgas wrote: »

The answer is in your own question - the bulk of the impact from Brexit hasn't happened yet.

Do you hope Brexit fails?

swampgas

stefanovich wrote: »

I started and got quite fed up. The majority seem to desire a bad outcome for the UK. I think just to be proved right.

Do you have an opinion about how well the UK will do after Brexit, or are you more concerned with what the posters here seem to want for the UK?

I'd be interested to hear the former, not so much the latter.

swampgas

stefanovich wrote: »

Do you hope Brexit fails?

I'm torn on the issue. For the sake of my friends and family in the UK, I hope (and it's a very faint hope) that Brexit never happens.

But for the sake of the EU as a whole, I can see advantages to the UK going its own way.

A Dub in Glasgo

stefanovich wrote: »

I started and got quite fed up. The majority seem to desire a bad outcome for the UK. I think just to be proved right.

The vast majority of folk on here probably thinks it is a bad decision and the UK will be worse off for their narrow version of nationalism

Leonard Hofstadter

stefanovich wrote: »

Do you hope Brexit fails?

Well I wanted them to stay in the EU, and I still want them to stay in the EU, but that's not gonna happen unfortunately.

I live in the UK and while I don't want a penal deal, I do hope the EU goes to town on them to begin with so as to force them to compromise, sure EU citizens don't even know if we'll be allowed stay (although Irish citizens are somehow exempt under the Ireland act). The closer the UK is to the EU, the better it is for both, but the arrogance and delusion of the likes of Johnson is such that that's not going to happen. It is not Ireland's, or Germany's, or anyone else in the EU's, fault that BoJo has made WW2 references when talking about Brexit. It is not the EU's fault that the UK expects that the EU will just give them whatever they want (although at least they have conceded the single market). I've been saying this to any of the natives that will listen to me, they are so deluded and they really do think that they can just have their cake and eat it. When they were in the EU, the Brits wanted all the benefits of marriage, with none of the drawbacks. Now they want all the benefits of divorce, but none of the drawbacks. At the end of the day, being in the EU has got to be better than not being in it, otherwise nobody would want to be in it. The Brits of course are already starting to blame the EU and will blame the EU if they don't get what they want - irony clearly isn't a strength of theirs when they get so worked up about other countries starting doing exactly what they've been trying (unsuccessfully) to do - putting their own countries' interests above others.

As important and all as the UK market is to Ireland, the EU is orders of magnitude more important to us, sure Britain isn't even our largest export market any more - Belgium is these days.

I normally despise any sort of Brit bashing of the kind the likes of the Shinners come up with, but let's be honest, if anything goes wrong for Ireland because of Brexit, it will be Britain's fault. If there are problems with a border between the North and the South, that is Britain's fault, they will have to leave the customs union so that they can strike free trade deals with the rest of the world. If things start going awry in the North, that is Britain's fault for voting for Brexit, it is their fault if people cannot freely travel between North and South. If Irish agriculture is devastated, that is Britain's fault for leaving the single market and customs union, and reverting to WTO tarriffs. If the cost of goods and services goes up, that is Britain's fault because there will be taxes and charges imposed as a result of goods and services passing between EU and third countries. If a United Ireland happens, that will be because the Brits managed to do more than the natives ever managed or the IRA ever managed, it clearly does not make sense to be putting up borders (of any kind) on such a small island. If an independent Scotland happens, that is Britain's fault, the Scots were told explicitly that they should vote to stay in the UK in 2014 otherwise they would lose their EU citizenship. Well they did vote to stay, and they've now lost it anyway.

So, whatever way you look at it, any of the bad things that are going to happen, either to the UK, or Ireland, are nothing to do with us (even though they of course directly affect us). They are self inflicted wounds the British electorate decided to impose on themselves - it's just unfortunate that in Ireland we are so caught up in the crossfire, between the North and our dependency on Britain for trade.

stefanovich

swampgas wrote: »

I'm torn on the issue. For the sake of my friends and family in the UK, I hope (and it's a very faint hope) that Brexit never happens.

But for the sake of the EU as a whole, I can see advantages to the UK going its own way.

Regardless of the outcome, you have a solid assumption that Brexit is going to be negative for your friends in the UK? Are they British?

The only way Brexit is positive for the EU is in encouraging others to also leave. In fact, I think that the EU as we know is as close to collapse as it has ever been. If Le Pen gets into power then France is out.

swampgas wrote: »

Do you have an opinion about how well the UK will do after Brexit, or are you more concerned with what the posters here seem to want for the UK?

I'd be interested to hear the former, not so much the latter.

I think the UK has the potential to flourish if things are done right.

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The vast majority of folk on here probably thinks it is a bad decision and the UK will be worse off for their narrow version of nationalism

Is self-determination now nationalism? The EU is a failed experiment which seems to only benefit Germany at the moment.

captainspeed wrote: »

I live in the UK and while I don't want a penal deal, I do hope the EU goes to town on them to begin with so as to force them to compromise, sure EU citizens don't even know if we'll be allowed stay (although Irish citizens are somehow exempt under the Ireland act). The closer the UK is to the EU, the better it is for both, but the arrogance and delusion of the likes of Johnson is such that that's not going to happen. It is not Ireland's, or Germany's, or anyone else in the EU's, fault that BoJo has made WW2 references when talking about Brexit. It is not the EU's fault that the UK expects that the EU will just give them whatever they want (although at least they have conceded the single market). I've been saying this to any of the natives that will listen to me, they are so deluded and they really do think that they can just have their cake and eat it. When they were in the EU, the Brits wanted all the benefits of marriage, with none of the drawbacks. Now they want all the benefits of divorce, but none of the drawbacks. At the end of the day, being in the EU has got to be better than not being in it, otherwise nobody would want to be in it. The Brits of course are already starting to blame the EU and will blame the EU if they don't get what they want - irony clearly isn't a strength of theirs when they get so worked up about other countries starting doing exactly what they've been trying (unsuccessfully) to do - putting their own countries' interests above others.

The European union is so great that the UK needs to be punished if they leave to discourage others from doing the same? The UK just wants to be treated like a sovereign country capable of making its own decisions... What's wrong with that?

marienbad

stefanovich wrote: »

Regardless of the outcome, you have a solid assumption that Brexit is going to be negative for your friends in the UK? Are they British?

The only way Brexit is positive for the EU is in encouraging others to also leave. In fact, I think that the EU as we know is as close to collapse as it has ever been. If Le Pen gets into power then France is out.



I think the UK has the potential to flourish if things are done right.



Is self-determination now nationalism? The EU is a failed experiment which seems to only benefit Germany at the moment.


The European union is so great that the UK needs to be punished if they leave to discourage others from doing the same? The UK just wants to be treated like a sovereign country capable of making its own decisions... What's wrong with that?

Even if Le Pen wins (which she won't) France will not leave the EU . All the polls consistently show that ,so I don't know where you get this idea .

How is the EU a failed experiment ?? For one thing how long does something have to be functioning and evolving before it ceases to be an experiment ?

For another it has brought peace and prosperity to its members like they have never known ! It would be great if all failure were like that .

No just wishful thinking on your part .

Leonard Hofstadter

stefanovich wrote: »

The European union is so great that the UK needs to be punished if they leave to discourage others from doing the same? The UK just wants to be treated like a sovereign country capable of making its own decisions... What's wrong with that?

It's not punishing the UK to merely enforce the rules of the EU club. Being a member of a club has got to be better than not being in it - otherwise there is no point in being a member of that club. The Brits are horribly uninformed about 'Europe' in any event, they just don't get it. They believe blatant falsehoods to be the truth, like the bent bananas thing. The British press have been systematically and compulsively lying about the European Union for the past 40 odd years, is it any wonder that after all the constant propaganda about how 'bad' the EU is that the British public haven't taken some sort of notice and ultimately ended up voting to commit economic suicide?

At the end of the day, is cosying up to Britain and their market of 65 million people better for us than firmly and clearly stating we're sticking with the EU, when we will soon be the only country that speaks English, uses the Euro and will have free and unlimited access to a market of 450 million? We only do 14% of our trade with Britain these, they're nowhere near as important to us economically as they used to be - and that is all thanks to the EU which has utterly transformed our country. As I've said before, of course the UK is an important market for us, and of course a bad Brexit is bad for Ireland (and it's bad for me personally being a UK resident), but any fallout for Ireland is solely because of Britain's intransigence. If they were that bothered about Ireland and the North they wouldn't be electing to leave the customs union (they haven't explicitly said they want to do it, but at the end of the day, you cannot strike free trade deals with other countries if you are a member of the customs union).

catbear

stefanovich wrote: »

The European union is so great that the UK needs to be punished if they leave to discourage others from doing the same? The UK just wants to be treated like a sovereign country capable of making its own decisions... What's wrong with that?

Even the brexit white paper asserts that the UK was sovereign while in the EU so you're really just regurgitating lies.

Plus Le Pen wants the Franc to remain pegged to the Euro, effectively on the same footing as their former west african colonies. Another nation with post colonial decline issues.

stefanovich

marienbad wrote: »

Even if Le Pen wins (which she won't) France will not leave the EU . All the polls consistently show that ,so I don't know where you get this idea .

How is the EU a failed experiment ?? For one thing how long does something have to be functioning and evolving before it ceases to be an experiment ?

For another it has brought peace and prosperity to its members like they have never known ! It would be great if all failure were like that .

No just wishful thinking on your part .

Recent polls haven't exactly been correct either about Trump or Brexit. She is doing very well. There is a definite problem in France now with terrorism and mass immigration.

I'm not so sure about prosperity for all.

stefanovich

catbear wrote: »

Even the brexit white paper asserts that the UK was sovereign while in the EU so you're really just regurgitating lies.

Plus Le Pen wants the Franc to remain pegged to the Euro, effectively on the same footing as their former west african colonies. Another nation with post colonial decline issues.

It retained the sovereign right to either leave or put up with the rules. If it leaves it asserts its sovereignty. By staying it doesn't. Like being in an abusive relationship.

marienbad

stefanovich wrote: »

Recent polls haven't exactly been correct either about Trump or Brexit. She is doing very well. There is a definite problem in France now with terrorism and mass immigration.

I'm not so sure about prosperity for all.

Recent polls have all been within the margin of error , but that dos'st suit the argument . She is doing as well as she can do . Like Brexit she has a core of supporters who will support her no matter what , but she cannot break out beyond that . Thus she will not be elected .

There is a problem all over Europe with terrorism and immigration but thankfully a sizeable majority still realize the Le Pen Trump Farage road just leads to disaster .

How do you mean you are not sure about prosperity for all ? Of course there have been up and downs but every single index since the foundation of the EU is just going one way . Sure it might be a 2step forward 1 step back but in the main it is going the right way .

Certainly the best thing for countries like Ireland ever .

marienbad

stefanovich wrote: »

It retained the sovereign right to either leave or put up with the rules. If it leaves it asserts its sovereignty. By staying it doesn't. Like being in an abusive relationship.

But this is just not correct - by definition by signing any international agreement or joining any international body a state forgoes absolute sovereignty . And that applies to membership of WTO, UN , EU , NATO ,signing the Good Friday agreement , non proliferation treaties , etc etc .

stefanovich

marienbad wrote: »

Recent polls have all been within the margin of error , but that dos'st suit the argument . She is doing as well as she can do . Like Brexit she has a core of supporters who will support her no matter what , but she cannot break out beyond that . Thus she will not be elected .

There is a problem all over Europe with terrorism and immigration but thankfully a sizeable majority still realize the Le Pen Trump Farage road just leads to disaster .

How do you mean you are not sure about prosperity for all ? Of course there have been up and downs but every single index since the foundation of the EU is just going one way . Sure it might be a 2step forward 1 step back but in the main it is going the right way .

Certainly the best thing for countries like Ireland ever .

Even the polls say she is going to win the first round easily.

There is a problem with immigrations and terrorism in Europe in part because of the freedom of movement and lack of borders. The same freedom of movement allows the exploitation of cheap labour from poorer European countries.

Youth unemployment in Spain and Italy is frightening.

stefanovich

marienbad wrote: »

But this is just not correct - by definition by signing any international agreement or joining any international body a state forgoes absolute sovereignty . And that applies to membership of WTO, UN , EU , NATO ,signing the Good Friday agreement , non proliferation treaties , etc etc .

Well the UK wants out now and the rest of Europe is talking about punishing her.

marienbad

stefanovich wrote: »

Even the polls say she is going to win the first round easily.

There is a problem with immigrations and terrorism in Europe in part because of the freedom of movement and lack of borders. The same freedom of movement allows the exploitation of cheap labour from poorer European countries.

Youth unemployment in Spain and Italy is frightening.

So what if she wins the first round ? That has always been the system . She won't win the round that counts .

Freedom of movement is an essential part of the EU , and is the quid pro quo that us poorer countries gained from letting the industrial juggernauts free access to our markets , why people don't understand that is beyond me. The EU is not just a traders paradise .

Are you opposed to the EU in principle ?

swampgas

stefanovich wrote: »

Well the UK wants out now and the rest of Europe is talking about punishing her.

If leaving the EU is such a good idea, how can the EU possibly punish the UK? They're leaving, aren't they? How can the EU punish the UK when the UK will be completely sovereign and will be able to do whatever they want?

Sam Russell

stefanovich wrote: »

Even the polls say she is going to win the first round easily.

There is a problem with immigrations and terrorism in Europe in part because of the freedom of movement and lack of borders. The same freedom of movement allows the exploitation of cheap labour from poorer European countries.

Youth unemployment in Spain and Italy is frightening.

Now that is the difference between the French system and the US. You have to win the popular vote in the second round against a single opponent. Trump lost the popular vote by over 3 million - that is a lot of people who voted for another candidate, plus another number who voted for other candidates.

There are problems within the EU, and it was ever thus. The EU was founded to end wars in Europe, which it has done (at least for the EU members), and to banish hunger from the EU which it has also succeeded in. It has also improved the wealth and living standards of it members.

One of the largest beneficiaries was Ireland, but the UK has also been a huge beneficiary. Before joining the EEC, Britain was a basket case economically, with massive trade deficits.

I think Brexit is a big mistake and will cause significant economic problems, but as yet, they have not left so it is all to come - except the exodus of academics, banks, finance houses, and some manufacturers - more to follow.

I doubt they will see sense but I hope so.

catbear

stefanovich wrote: »

It retained the sovereign right to either leave or put up with the rules. If it leaves it asserts its sovereignty. By staying it doesn't. Like being in an abusive relationship.

To quote Boris Johnson from before the vote...

“The world needs Global Britain more than ever as a campaigner for the values we believe in.”

The world doesn't exist for the UKs expense.

The Brexit idea of sovereignty being peddled and regurgitated by you is the total control enjoyed by the Empire when it ruled the largest trade bloc in the world. A sovereignty that existed at the expense of others, so yes, the EU does restrict that imperialist British sovereignty.

Only the most delusional will throw themselves at the UKs feet and say please let us be the first to be offered a trade deal that suits you at our expense.

Leonard Hofstadter

catbear wrote: »

Only the most delusional will throw themselves at the UKs feet and say please let us be the first to be offered a trade deal that suits you at our expense.

Absolutely. It was reported on the BBC's Sunday Politics programme this morning that even some of the Brexit supporters in the British cabinet are worried about the terms of a trade deal with the states, and they don't want to be seen to be cosying up to the Yanks too much.

Look at the other countries the UK have tried to reach out of, India has been most explicit that there will be no deal unless there is some sort of freedom of movement, the UK was attractive to them because it was a gateway to the single market, now it's not, by any objective measure Theresa May's visit to India a few months ago was a disaster, the UK won't compromise on freedom of movement therefore India is not interested in any deal with them.

My Indian housemate was saying that Indian firms will just locate in Ireland instead because we'll still have single market access, the Euro and obviously the English language in our favour. They will see Ireland as being culturally similar to the UK so it is the next best location to set up to launch themselves into the EU's single market.

Canada has said that life's going to be tough for the UK outside the EU, and even if there is a trade deal it's going to take a while to do, just look at how long it took CETA to come to fruition, of course Britain will soon have free trade with Canada since they still are in the EU and get all of the EU's (considerable) benefits (CETA starts to take effect from April), they won't have that when they leave the EU.

Australia says they want a trade deal with Britain, but look at what they've been saying recently, the EU comes much higher up the list and as we learned this week, one of their Ministers said Brexit is an opportunity for Ireland.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/0224/855240-brexit-is-opportunity-for-ireland/

So, all in all, I don't think we need to be overly pessimistic about Brexit. Of course it will hit some rural communities hard, and there could be complications in terms of the border, but we need to grow up and act as the small, confident, outward looking nation that we are and stop relying on Britain for everything we do. After all, wasn't the whole point of seeking independence that we could cut our dependency of the UK and start making things happen for ourselves? In any case, if Scotland votes to leave the UK that will be a part of the UK we can resume normal tariff free trading relations with - it is surely better from an Irish point of view to have unlimited free trade with some part of the UK (or what was the UK) than none at all.

ancapailldorcha

stefanovich wrote: »

Even the polls say she is going to win the first round easily.

Then she has to beat her opponent in the second round which looks doubtful.

stefanovich wrote: »

There is a problem with immigrations and terrorism in Europe in part because of the freedom of movement and lack of borders. The same freedom of movement allows the exploitation of cheap labour from poorer European countries.

Can you prove any of this exploitation of cheap labour?

stefanovich wrote: »

Youth unemployment in Spain and Italy is frightening.

What about the other 26 countries? The UK has extremely low unemployment.

murphaph

stefanovich wrote: »

Well the UK wants out now and the rest of Europe is talking about punishing her.

What don't you understand about the concept of a club?

You leave the club, you lose the perks of membership!

I am constantly astounded that so many people don't get this.

View

stefanovich wrote: »

It retained the sovereign right to either leave or put up with the rules.

That's not what the UK Government white paper on Brexit says.

Are you accusing the UK Government of lying or are you merely accusing them of incompetence?

CrabRevolution

stefanovich wrote: »

Well the UK wants out now and the rest of Europe is talking about punishing her.

I posted this in another thread

CrabRevolution wrote: »

They're already getting their first shots in for the blame game for when everyone inevitably suffers, e.g. "We don't want a hard border with the RoI, the EU are forcing it" "we didn't ask to leave the single market".

As someone made the analogy here before: Its like asking for a divorce, but demanding the house, full custody of the kids, and to get to keep all joint assets. When the partner inevitably refuses you break out with "I never wanted a long and messy court battle, so this is all your fault"

Just stating your unreasonable demands and blame the other side for not giving in to your terms.

It's the same for your argument. The EU offers both benefits and sacrifices to its members. The UK wants the benefits but none of the sacrifices. It would obviously be absurd for the EU to give a non member a better deal than the members themselves get. Yet this is somehow "punishment" in your eyes.

The EU won't be punishing the UK for not being a member any more than they're punishing Thailand or Ghana for not being members. They're just not giving them the benefits of EU membership.

Leonard Hofstadter

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I posted this in another thread



It's the same for your argument. The EU offers both benefits and sacrifices to its members. The UK wants the benefits but none of the sacrifices. It would obviously be absurd for the EU to give a non member a better deal than the members themselves get. Yet this is somehow "punishment" in your eyes.

The EU won't be punishing the UK for not being a member any more than they're punishing Thailand or Ghana for not being members. They're just not giving them the benefits of EU membership.

Exactly. I'm sick of this crap coming from the right wing British press already.

If there are hard borders between ROI and NI, it is not the EU's fault, it is the Brits' fault because they've all but decided they're going to leave the customs union.

The little Englanders wanted all the benefits of marriage, but none of the drawbacks. Now they want all the benefits of divorce, but none of the drawbacks. They want to have their cake and eat it - well I'm sorry but that's not how the rules work. Being in the EU brings certain benefits, chiefly the single market, and some drawbacks, such as limited decision making and the fact that we have to pay into it. Allowing Britain to get some of these benefits without paying into it, or being the only country with lots of single market access but not being bound by the ECJ or free movement would be complete and utter suicide for the rest of the EU - Ireland included, so it's not going to happen. All the EU is doing is enforcing the rules, they're there for a reason. You can't be outside a club but still want to keep the benefits of membership of that club.