Brexit Referendum Superthread

oscarBravo

captainspeed wrote: »

They want to have their cake and eat it - well I'm sorry but that's not how the rules work.

It's also not how cake works.

I was utterly bewildered to see "having our cake and eating it" put forward as a serious description of the UK's approach to negotiation. It's slightly more obvious when it's put the original way around - "eating your cake and having it too" - that it's intended to describe a logical absurdity, not a brilliant negotiating strategy.

I'm half expecting Boris to proudly tell us that his approach to foreign affairs is inspired by the ancient Greeks' "straw man" and "slippery slope" rhetorical devices.

Professor Moriarty

oscarBravo wrote: »

It's also not how cake works.

I was utterly bewildered to see "having our cake and eating it" put forward as a serious description of the UK's approach to negotiation. It's slightly more obvious when it's put the original way around - "eating your cake and having it too" - that it's intended to describe a logical absurdity, not a brilliant negotiating strategy.

I'm half expecting Boris to proudly tell us that his approach to foreign affairs is inspired by the ancient Greeks' "straw man" and "slippery slope" rhetorical devices.

If you are going to evoke ancient Greece, Narcissus might be more apt.

Peregrinus

stefanovich wrote: »

It retained the sovereign right to either leave or put up with the rules. If it leaves it asserts its sovereignty. By staying it doesn't. Like being in an abusive relationship.

So if they assert their sovereign right to stay they aren't sovereign? The sovereign right to stay or leave can only be asserted by staying?

You need to think these things through before you post them, stefanovich.

Peregrinus

marienbad wrote: »

But this is just not correct - by definition by signing any international agreement or joining any international body a state forgoes absolute sovereignty . And that applies to membership of WTO, UN , EU , NATO ,signing the Good Friday agreement , non proliferation treaties , etc etc .

Not at all. By signing treaties a state asserts and exercises its sovereignty. It's only sovereigns who can sign treaties.

The notion that by asserting and exercising your sovereignty you give it away is the kind of half-baked nonsense on which too much of the Brexit case has always rested.

Peregrinus

stefanovich wrote: »

Well the UK wants out now and the rest of Europe is talking about punishing her.

Who in the "rest of Europe" has spoken about "punishing" the EU?

stefanovich

murphaph wrote:

You leave the club, you lose the perks of membership!

No, what I am referring to is comments from some other EU politicians when they say they want to make exit as difficult as possible. Presumably to discourage others and help fulfill their predictions of calamity.

catbear

stefanovich wrote: »

murphaph wrote:

You leave the club, you lose the perks of membership!

No, what I am referring to is comments from some other EU politicians when they say they want to make exit as difficult as possible. Presumably to discourage others and help fulfill their predictions of calamity.

The UK has no reason to complain, especially after using the EU as a scapegoat for their own failings for years.

demfad

An interesting article in the Guardian this weekend.

Robert Mercer, The Billionaire behind Trump's victory gave the services of his big data firm 'Cambridge Analytica' for free to the Leave.eu campaign.
He claimed it was because Farage was a long term pal. However, any payments above £7,500 must be recorded with the appropriate authorities. If Cambridge had charged Leave.eu it could have been a 7 figure sum.

Cambridge uses 'dark posts' they are the personalised FB etc. posts you might see on your FB profile, but no-one else can see. There is no way of seeing these attack ads to determine their truthfullness, legality. Also, Cambridge dredges massive amounts of personal data from the internet, which may contravene British data protection rules.

Both campaigns are being investigated for funding. I have a feeling the 'free' Cambridge Analytica service was more to do with staying hidden and less to do with a favour for a pal.

Mercer and his daughter Rebekah have worked with Steve Bannon and KellyAnne Conway for well over a decade.

catbear

demfad wrote: »

An interesting article in the Guardian this weekend.

Robert Mercer, The Billionaire behind Trump's victory gave the services of his big data firm 'Cambridge Analytica' for free to the Leave.eu campaign.

The conditions for Brexit were always there though, successive british administrations blaming the EU for all their failing the voters expectations. It's actually going to be interesting to see how the ruling class will manage without us as their whipping boy now they'll supposedly have the "sovereignty" to please the masses!

Sam Russell

catbear wrote: »

The conditions for Brexit were always there though, successive british administrations blaming the EU for all their failing the voters expectations. It's actually going to be interesting to see how the ruling class will manage without us as their whipping boy now they'll supposedly have the "sovereignty" to please the masses!

They will revert back to the unions - that was always useful before and during they sojourn in the EU. They will still have the pesky foreigners who would not give them a fair deal (EU), or even a good trade deal (the rest of the world).

demfad

catbear wrote: »

The conditions for Brexit were always there though, successive british administrations blaming the EU for all their failing the voters expectations.

Difference between the conditions for a large Brexit vote and the conditions for a Brexit majority. The conditions for the first were there ofcourse.
Cambridge Analytica can use powerful emotions like nationalism and turn it into collaboration for a particular cause. It makes a difference and nationalism gets voters out also.

swampgas

Interesting piece on how difficult it might be for the UK to get any kind of decent WTO deal if they go for hard Brexit.
http://www.politico.eu/article/-may-brexit-trade-bluff-uk-economy-negotiation-eu/

Britain will, ironically, be highly dependent on the EU’s goodwill if it wants to pursue its own trade agenda. This is due to a somewhat obscure corner of World Trade Organization rulemaking that will soon come to dominate the Brexit debate.

If Britain wants to chart its own course as an independent WTO member — and agree deals across the globe — the U.K. will need to secure a sort of trading passport called “WTO schedules.” These schedules are the basis for any trade deal and would determine the terms on which any country can engage with the U.K. Without agreed schedules, London will be in trade limbo.

As the biggest trade bloc in the world, the EU holds enormous power in determining whether the WTO accepts the U.K.’s schedules, based on Britain’s duties, quotas and subsidies. Goodwill in Brussels is critical if Britain wants a green light for deals with the U.S., Canada, India and South Korea. “May has cornered herself … The EU will hold all the cards,” said a senior WTO official.

Leonard Hofstadter

swampgas wrote: »

Interesting piece on how difficult it might be for the UK to get any kind of decent WTO deal if they go for hard Brexit.
http://www.politico.eu/article/-may-brexit-trade-bluff-uk-economy-negotiation-eu/

Ah Jesus would you ever stop with the doom and gloom. Sure don't you know that whatever Britain wants, it gets, sure they are the world's fifth biggest economy after all:rolleyes::rolleyes::D!

ancapailldorcha

captainspeed wrote: »

Ah Jesus would you ever stop with the doom and gloom. Sure don't you know that whatever Britain wants, it gets, sure they are the world's fifth biggest economy after all:rolleyes::rolleyes::D!

Ditch the sarcasm please.

demfad

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-28/no-brexit-deal-is-a-scenario-u-k-must-prepare-for-davis-warns?utm_content=brexit&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-facebook-brexit

There’s “every reason” the U.K can go “full tilt and get this done within two years,” Johnson said. “‘We have an unrivaled opportunity. It’s unlike any other free trade deal that the EU has ever done in that we are already exactly flush with our partners in terms of standards and tariffs.”

UK told to prepare for No Deal. The bold section displays how isiodic the whole thing is. Correct this idiotic move has not been replicated in world trade history yet.

The 'flush' statement is misleading:

The UK must create from scratch the regulatory bodies (32 controlled by ECJ), and custom/tariff structure in the UK. This would only be of benefit if the UK wanted to keep some of the existing regulatory bodies as they are in Europe. But they would be under ECJ and that breaches a Theresa May red line.

A 'Norway' solution would garner some of the current advantages but again they area adament about leaving the single market.

Still trying to spin. They wont be able to hide the leaks from the talks once they begin.

The Labour peers voted to abstain/allow the UK to leave the single market yesterday. Idiotically, they can now be co-blamed for the inevitable fallout.

KingBrian2

Nigel Farage should be leading from the front. It was his referendum to win so i feel he needs to start coming up with a new vision for the UK and its trade relations with the rest of the world. Him and people like him have to start shaping this post EU Britain.

ancapailldorcha

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Nigel Farage should be leading from the front. It was his referendum to win so i feel he needs to start coming up with a new vision for the UK and its trade relations with the rest of the world. Him and people like him have to start shaping this post EU Britain.

Why him exactly? He's unelected for starters, or rather, he will be once his position is dissolved. It's for the democratically elected government to chart this course, not the former leader of some obscure party which becomes more unelectable by the day.

ads20101

captainspeed wrote: »

Ah Jesus would you ever stop with the doom and gloom. Sure don't you know that whatever Britain wants, it gets, sure they are the world's fifth biggest economy after all:rolleyes::rolleyes::D!

I know there's a hefty bit of sarcasm here, but you've made a really good point.

They have an economy way above their belt weight. Why on earth would they want to risk that.

They will go from a small county with moderate global influence to a small country to no influence.

KingBrian2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Why him exactly? He's unelected for starters, or rather, he will be once his position is dissolved. It's for the democratically elected government to chart this course, not the former leader of some obscure party which becomes more unelectable by the day.

That party was set up to deliver a referendum which saw half the population back.

murphaph

KingBrian2 wrote: »

That party was set up to deliver a referendum which saw half the population back.

And which can't even get its leader elected in a by-election and lost to a Labour party that is all at sea itself.

UK politics have gone from something I thought superior to ours to a joke that makes Ireland look positively professional in comparison.

It's an incredible turn of events to see them ruin their own country like this. If we weren't so heavily caught up in it all it might be slightly amusing.

Professor Moriarty

murphaph wrote:

It's an incredible turn of events to see them ruin their own country like this. If we weren't so heavily caught up in it all it might be slightly amusing.

When I find myself thinking about Brexit (and Trump) I wonder if it's a dream. It's that incredible, as you say, it's like watching someone slowly and deliberately walk over the edge of a cliff.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

When I find myself thinking about Brexit (and Trump) I wonder if it's a dream. It's that incredible, as you say, it's like watching someone slowly and deliberately walk over the edge of a cliff.

Or a game of Russian Roulette. Your turn to pull the trigger, Theresa!

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote:

Or a game of Russian Roulette. Your turn to pull the trigger, Theresa!

Many EU politicians would like the chance to make sure the gun had no empty chambers.

ancapailldorcha

KingBrian2 wrote: »

That party was set up to deliver a referendum which saw half the population back.

My recollection was that the Conservative party delivered the referendum while UKIP won one seat out of 650.

Leonard Hofstadter

It's actually very sad to watch a nation self destruct the way it is doing so at the moment. I don't blame the Scots one bit for wanting to get out - I hope they have their referendum, and win. Sure even if the EU doesn't let them get in, it will be no worse than where they currently are but at least they won't have to implement the appalling racist policies of the Tory Government and they can be an open minded, liberal, modern country. They will be able to have much greater access to the single market being an independent country, could join the customs union, EEA, none of those things to the best of my knowledge can be blocked by EU member states. So, they'd nearly have something as good as EU membership - which is a hell of a lot better than what they're going to get if they just sit back and let the Tories bully them the way they are doing at present.

I should hasten to add, I would very much have been in favour of them staying in the UK when the last referendum was held, but things are totally different now. I'd even be open to the idea of a United Ireland, I was always happy for it to be Britain's problem, but that was on the basis of things remaining the way they were, open, liberal, tolerant, outward looking countries. That's not true of mainland UK any more really.

Despite all of this, the Brits do share so many of the same characteristics as we do, the Brexiteers remind me so much of FF during the boom, an absolute point blank refusal to accept that they might not get their way, anyone who says anything critical is talking down the country and wants the country to fail etc etc. The arrogance and delusion are right up there with Bertie in the boom - and we all know where that got our country. The opposition aren't even being steamrolled by the Tories, they're complicit in it, Labour are a thundering disgrace, we have an appalling Government in the UK and an equally useless opposition. Look at all the lies the Brexiteers and the Tories have told the people, not thing is said, facts are inconsequential these days; Cornwall isn't getting the EU funding it will be losing from the Government, Yorkshire isn't either. Then there's the £350 million for the NHS. There was big excitement about Nissan agreeing to keep Sunderland going, but now as it becomes clear that the Government is going for extreme Brexit, Nissan is having a rethink and they might axe 7,000 jobs.

But in saying all of that, the British electorate were dumb enough to believe the lies and bluster of the biased press and the likes of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson - and in fairness to Theresa May - she is giving the British exactly what they voted for. If there is one good thing to come out of it, it will hopefully teach people not only the importance of voting, but every vote matters and it will teach the electorate to take responsibility for their actions. She is doing exactly what the voters have asked her to do - so it's a bit rich to come back whinging and moaning about the consequences. All of us on the remain side warned that this was going to be 'real bad' (to use an American expression), and it is, so don't go crying to me about it when the thing goes belly up (which it will). You reap what you sow, and you get the democracy and Government you deserve.

catbear

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

My recollection was that the Conservative party delivered the referendum while UKIP won one seat out of 650.

What's startling is that UKip got one seat from 4.000.000 votes but the current government only got 11.000.000 votes!

No wonder the Tories are trying to out kip UKip.

Professor Moriarty

captainspeed wrote:

But in saying all of that, the British electorate were dumb enough to believe the lies and bluster of the biased press and the likes of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson - and in fairness to Theresa May - she is giving the British exactly what they voted for. If there is one good thing to come out of it, it will hopefully teach people not only the importance of voting, but every vote matters and it will teach the electorate to take responsibility for their actions. She is doing exactly what the voters have asked her to do - so it's a bit rich to come back whinging and moaning about the consequences. All of us on the remain side warned that this was going to be 'real bad' (to use an American expression), and it is, so don't go crying to me about it when the thing goes belly up (which it will). You reap what you sow, and you get the democracy and Government you deserve.

"Every nation gets the government it deserves."

Joseph de Maistre

Havockk

Sam Russell wrote: »

Or a game of Russian Roulette. Your turn to pull the trigger, Theresa!

Yeah, but it's Russian roulette not with revolver with a rotating cylinder, but with a box magazine.

Foghladh

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

KingBrian2 wrote: »

That party was set up to deliver a referendum which saw half the population back.

My recollection was that the Conservative party delivered the referendum while UKIP won one seat out of 650.

That's not entirely true. The referendum may have been called on the Conservatives watch but the bill to hold it passed through parliament with a 10-1 ratio. I think that the SNP were about the only party to oppose it. Even Nick Clegg of the Lib Dems was vocal back in 2008 about the need for an in-out referendum to put the EU question to bed.

Havockk

Foghladh wrote: »

That's not entirely true. The referendum may have been called on the Conservatives watch but the bill to hold it passed through parliament with a 10-1 ratio. I think that the SNP were about the only party to oppose it. Even Nick Clegg of the Lib Dems was vocal back in 2008 about the need for an in-out referendum to put the EU question to bed.

Ah, Nick Clegg, probably one of the most gormless politicians to walk bipedal. Went back on just about every promise his party made to be Deputy PM and in doing so achieved the grand total of absolutely nothing, almost destroying the Lib Dems in the process.