Brexit Referendum Superthread

ambro25

catbear wrote: »

What's startling is that UKip got one seat from 4.000.000 votes but the current government only got 11.000.000 votes!

No wonder the Tories are trying to out kip UKip.

Erm, about that one seat, by the way...LOL!

ancapailldorcha

catbear wrote: »

What's startling is that UKip got one seat from 4.000.000 votes but the current government only got 11.000.000 votes!

No wonder the Tories are trying to out kip UKip.

Those numbers are irrelevant. The electorate voted to keep FPTP. Therefore, UKIP got what they deserved. The Tories took one UKIP policy which was also a Green policy.

joeysoap

I'm not sure the majority in the UK think they made a mistake in voting for Brexit. I was talking to two English people at the weekend, one from Norfolk, one from Hampshire, both happy they voted out.

Foghladh

Havockk wrote: »

Foghladh wrote: »

That's not entirely true. The referendum may have been called on the Conservatives watch but the bill to hold it passed through parliament with a 10-1 ratio. I think that the SNP were about the only party to oppose it. Even Nick Clegg of the Lib Dems was vocal back in 2008 about the need for an in-out referendum to put the EU question to bed.

Ah, Nick Clegg, probably one of the most gormless politicians to walk bipedal. Went back on just about every promise his party made to be Deputy PM and in doing so achieved the grand total of absolutely nothing, almost destroying the Lib Dems in the process.

I won't disagree with you but I suppose it's true to say that he does stick to his beliefs. The battle cry at the time was to let the under-50's decide, given that in 2008 no person under that age was eligible to vote in the original EEC referendum. I suppose that he believed that anyone growing up within the EU/EEC would be more inclined to vote pro-EU. Of course that demographic is now 60+ and, if the Ashdown poll is to be believed, the tipping point is closer to early 40's.

stefanovich

ads20101 wrote:

They will go from a small county with moderate global influence to a small country to no influence.

5th biggest economy in the world. Small country with no influence after it leaves the EU? I think not.

Peregrinus

stefanovich wrote: »

5th biggest economy in the world. Small country with no influence after it leaves the EU? I think not.

Well, "no influence" is a bit of an overstatement, I think. But, while it's true that the UK will, at least initially, be the fifth biggest economy in the world, roughly 50% of the UK's foreign trade will be with the EU-27 (obviously, depending on the Brexit terms that are agreed, this could go down), a further 11% with the US, and a further 3% with China.

In other words, large though the UK economy may be, 64% of its trade - two-thirds, give or take - is with economies that are larger still. So for the bulk of its trade and its trading relationships, the UK is actually the junior partner in the deal. And note that this isn't true for the top three economies (the US, the EU, China); they all do the bulk of their trade with economies that are smaller than them. And I don't think it's true of Japan (no. 4) either, though I could be corrected on that.

In other words, as the fifth largest economy in the world, the UK isn't the bottom of the first division; more towards the top of the second division. Which means that being the fifth largest economy in the world doesn't buy the trading muscle and negotiating muscle that you might at first assume.

To the extent that the UK punches above its weight internationally, this is not really because of the size of its economy but because of "softer" factors; its historic presence in, and links with, so many parts of the world; its cultural influence; etc. And of course all that will still be available to them post-Brexit. But it won't be magnified by Brexit. And it could conceivably be diminished somewhat, if other countries' attitudes towards the UK as an independent player are too much shaped by observing the likes of Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson.

Jaggo

stefanovich wrote: »

5th biggest economy in the world. Small country with no influence after it leaves the EU? I think not.

No influence is over doing it but not by too much.

The UK is too far from any country that it can influence. Other then America with its global reach, the most influential countries are "regional" powers. Saudi, Iran, Nigeria, Brazil, Mexico, they extend their dominance through economic policy and foreign policy within their regional sphere of influence only.

The UK is one of the smaller (and most isolated) parts in the region of Europe. Even Ireland is breaking away from UK influence.

catbear

The UK was the fulcrum of the worlds largest trade bloc a century ago. It substituted the ECC for the Empire it lost but there's no substitute waiting to replace the EU.

Nody

stefanovich wrote: »

5th biggest economy in the world. Small country with no influence after it leaves the EU? I think not.

As the pound is currently going and with the finance and production leaving due to the hard brexit future it's more likely 6th or 7th within a year of Brexit but yea, very limited influence. Why? Well if you're exporting to Europe do you pick UK or EU as your trading partner? One gives access to 450 million people in 27 countries with one standard approved in all countries, the other 1 country with 80 odd million people living in it.

Not to hard of a choice to make which one you'd go for first now is it? And once you're on the EU market do you want to go through all the controls again for UK or do you simply move ahead and go for India, China, USA etc. instead?

demfad

stefanovich wrote: »

5th biggest economy in the world. Small country with no influence after it leaves the EU? I think not.

Actually it was the 5th at the referendum. It is now 7th I believe in GDP terms.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/12/16/indias-economy-surpasses-that-of-great-britain/#44260a323bc0

Enzokk

captainspeed wrote: »

But in saying all of that, the British electorate were dumb enough to believe the lies and bluster of the biased press and the likes of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson - and in fairness to Theresa May - she is giving the British exactly what they voted for. If there is one good thing to come out of it, it will hopefully teach people not only the importance of voting, but every vote matters and it will teach the electorate to take responsibility for their actions. She is doing exactly what the voters have asked her to do - so it's a bit rich to come back whinging and moaning about the consequences. All of us on the remain side warned that this was going to be 'real bad' (to use an American expression), and it is, so don't go crying to me about it when the thing goes belly up (which it will). You reap what you sow, and you get the democracy and Government you deserve.

Its funny that most people want the government to improve the NHS and invest more into the NHS, yet you will have MPs vote for and have policies that hurt the NHS funding. They follow their hearts against what their constituents want when it suits them and would sell their own voters down the river if they needed to. This is what Theresa May is doing, its not out of a sense of democracy, she sees an opportunity to be leader and entrench the Tory majority for years to come.

swampgas

Media reporting that March 15 will be the date for Article 50.

http://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-mays-itchy-trigger-finger-article-50-brexit/

Amusingly (to me anyway), the 15th is the Ides of March - "Beware the Ides of March" seems appropriate though. A fortnight to go and no hint of a positive outcome.

catbear

i don't buy the summation at the end of the article. The remaining 27 will still have to deal with internal EU matters in the same consensus building manner that the UK is opting out of.

Like the prospect of Irish reunification being brought forward, Brexit is bringing forward greater unity in Europe if the white paper is anything to go by.

murphaph

The regulation of Britain's nuclear energy sector (including medical uses!) is a whole other world of trouble that will need to be resolved.

FT article

ads20101

murphaph wrote: »

The regulation of Britain's nuclear energy sector (including medical uses!) is a whole other world of trouble that will need to be resolved.

FT article

Its firewalled

Give us a synopsis

catbear

ads20101 wrote: »

Its firewalled

Give us a synopsis

Just google "nuclear fallout from Brexit" and then click the link to the financial times, that should get you around the paywall.

Nody

ads20101 wrote: »

Its firewalled

Give us a synopsis

Yet, as officials in Whitehall and Brussels prepare to negotiate Brexit, regulation of nuclear energy is emerging as one of the most difficult and pressing issues to resolve. One senior negotiator simply called it “a nightmare”.

Britain’s plutonium stockpile is overseen by inspectors from Euratom, the pan-European body that regulates the use of nuclear energy. The organisation has a permanent presence at Sellafield and owns the cameras, seals and testing laboratory used to monitor Europe’s largest nuclear facility.

All trading and transportation of nuclear materials by EU countries, from fuel for reactors to isotopes used in cancer treatments, is governed by Euratom. The UK now faces a scramble to assemble a new regulatory regime to uphold safety standards, while negotiating dozens of international agreements needed to maintain access to nuclear technology.

Yet another area May simply forgot existed.

A Dub in Glasgo

Nody wrote: »

Yet another area May simply forgot existed.

May and her band of Brexiters are so fixated with cutting the number of foreigners in the UK that they fail to notice how entwined the EU/EEC is in British society, industry and laws

catbear

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Nody wrote: »

Yet another area May simply forgot existed.

May and her band of Brexiters are so fixated with cutting the number of foreigners in the UK that they fail to notice how entwined the EU/EEC is in British society, industry and laws

That's been my practical conclusion since hard brexit took over, there's so much interdependence that full brexit is only truly possible in name only.

Expect lots of grandfathering arrangements whilst a50 demands get discounted one at a time.

KingBrian2

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

May and her band of Brexiters are so fixated with cutting the number of foreigners in the UK that they fail to notice how entwined the EU/EEC is in British society, industry and laws

Britain still has a large expat community of Indian and Pakistani's likely PM May will seek to open bilateral relations with those countries. The idea has already been floated in the English press. Get in touch with the commonwealth countries the Queen is still highly regarded in India to this day. The Indians will want to have a good partnership with their former overlords.

Calina

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Britain still has a large expat community of Indian and Pakistani's likely PM May will seek to open bilateral relations with those countries. The idea has already been floated in the English press. Get in touch with the commonwealth countries the Queen is still highly regarded in India to this day. The Indians will want to have a good partnership with their former overlords.

May has already been to India. India is not so interested unless the UK allows a significant increase in the numbers arriving in the UK from India.

Tbh, the least qualified media to comment on options right now is the English press. They are not general dealing with reality, but with wishful thinking.

Overlords though. How very colonial.

Nody

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Britain still has a large expat community of Indian and Pakistani's likely PM May will seek to open bilateral relations with those countries. The idea has already been floated in the English press. Get in touch with the commonwealth countries the Queen is still highly regarded in India to this day. The Indians will want to have a good partnership with their former overlords.

Except May already tried to court India and not only did she get rebuffed (more immigrants to be allowed; EU more interesting for India due to size) but she made a fool of herself there lecturing India on how they had to take back more of their nationals than returning currently.

Leonard Hofstadter

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Britain still has a large expat community of Indian and Pakistani's likely PM May will seek to open bilateral relations with those countries. The idea has already been floated in the English press. Get in touch with the commonwealth countries the Queen is still highly regarded in India to this day. The Indians will want to have a good partnership with their former overlords.

You're quite wrong there, I'm sharing a house with an Indian and he says that there will be no give or bridge building with Britain unless they compromise on immigration. Indeed, he said some Indian firms are looking at relocating to Ireland because we'll still be in the EU, and Britain was useful to India because it was a launchpad to the single market - something it no longer will be in just over two years time.

This is yet another area where the little Englanders have messed up.

Foghladh

captainspeed wrote: »

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Britain still has a large expat community of Indian and Pakistani's likely PM May will seek to open bilateral relations with those countries. The idea has already been floated in the English press. Get in touch with the commonwealth countries the Queen is still highly regarded in India to this day. The Indians will want to have a good partnership with their former overlords.

You're quite wrong there, I'm sharing a house with an Indian and he says that there will be no give or bridge building with Britain unless they compromise on immigration. Indeed, he said some Indian firms are looking at relocating to Ireland because we'll still be in the EU, and Britain was useful to India because it was a launchpad to the single market - something it no longer will be in just over two years time.

This is yet another area where the little Englanders have messed up.

He seems like quite the knowledgeable person your housemate. I work with a couple of Indian blokes but they don't seem to have the same insight into immigration and company relocation.

KingBrian2

captainspeed wrote: »

You're quite wrong there, I'm sharing a house with an Indian and he says that there will be no give or bridge building with Britain unless they compromise on immigration. Indeed, he said some Indian firms are looking at relocating to Ireland because we'll still be in the EU, and Britain was useful to India because it was a launchpad to the single market - something it no longer will be in just over two years time.

This is yet another area where the little Englanders have messed up.

India is a large country with the potential for millions to climb out of poverty they will jump at the opportunity to do business with anyone. Britain will have to make concessions only i see them making accommodation with Modi more than they would with Fillon, Macron or Le Pen.

catbear

KingBrian2 wrote: »

India is a large country with the potential for millions to climb out of poverty they will jump at the opportunity to do business with anyone. Britain will have to make concessions only i see them making accommodation with Modi more than they would with Fillon, Macron or Le Pen.

They've had decades of opportunity to jump out of poverty and needlessly conceding anything to the UK won't change anything.

Indias globalisation is at its own pace and on its own terms.

The thing is people forget that before the UK plundered it, india, along with China were the richest places on earth.

Nody

KingBrian2 wrote: »

India is a large country with the potential for millions to climb out of poverty they will jump at the opportunity to do business with anyone. Britain will have to make concessions only i see them making accommodation with Modi more than they would with Fillon, Macron or Le Pen.

Actually you got that the wrong way around; Brexit will help EU make a trade deal because it's UKs requirements which has been a major halt on it.

A document drawn up by MEPs on the powerful trade committee analysing the impact of Brexit on the EU’s trade talks around the world suggests India’s desire to maintain tariffs on scotch whisky has hindered progress on a EU-India deal.

Theresa May’s opposition to India being given plentiful visa opportunities for its skilled workers in the UK has also been a hurdle in previous trade talks.

murphaph

^^This. Glad somebody raised it. Indeed it is the case that Brexit finally allows the EU to sign a trade deal with India as the Scotch Whisky issue is sidestepped. The EU is clearly a more attractive market for finished goods than the UK purely given its size.

None of these former colonies are going to cut the UK an ounce of slack and why should they? They are independent nations out to secure their own best interests. Most of them are still cripplingly poor and the ones that aren't are on the other side of the world.

Replacing selling financial products to Europeans with selling Jaguars and Burberry coats to Australians just isn't going to make up the shortfall. The Brits are living in La La Land if they think they can cost effectively replace trade with rich near neighbours with trade with poor far flung former colonies.

I would split my sides laughing if commonwealth companies began locating in Ireland instead of Britain to maintain/gain access to the single market. Britain actually deserves no better. We could see a dramatic change in Irish demographics due to all this if British based firms actually start relocation to Ireland and bringing their staff with them. Ireland is sparsely populated. It could easily see huge population growth as the only English speaking country (of any size) in the EU. We could see an influx of great talent to the country. I just hope our useless politicians are ready for the challenge.

Foghladh

murphaph wrote: »

^^This. Glad somebody raised it. Indeed it is the case that Brexit finally allows the EU to sign a trade deal with India as the Scotch Whisky issue is sidestepped. The EU is clearly a more attractive market for finished goods than the UK purely given its size.

None of these former colonies are going to cut the UK an ounce of slack and why should they? They are independent nations out to secure their own best interests. Most of them are still cripplingly poor and the ones that aren't are on the other side of the world.

Replacing selling financial products to Europeans with selling Jaguars and Burberry coats to Australians just isn't going to make up the shortfall. The Brits are living in La La Land if they think they can cost effectively replace trade with rich near neighbours with trade with poor far flung former colonies.

I would split my sides laughing if commonwealth companies began locating in Ireland instead of Britain to maintain/gain access to the single market. Britain actually deserves no better. We could see a dramatic change in Irish demographics due to all this if British based firms actually start relocation to Ireland and bringing their staff with them. Ireland is sparsely populated. It could easily see huge population growth as the only English speaking country (of any size) in the EU. We could see an influx of great talent to the country. I just hope our useless politicians are ready for the challenge.

Do you believe that in 13 rounds of trade negotiations between the EU and India the sticking point has been a tariff on Scotch? Not the Indian tariff on European wines and spirits as a whole? Or the 60% tariff on European car exports? Or the access to the European services industry? Granted, the removal of the UK objections may simplify the process slightly but it's a hell of a leap to claim that it allows a trade deal to be signed.

KingBrian2

Foghladh wrote: »

Do you believe that in 13 rounds of trade negotiations between the EU and India the sticking point has been a tariff on Scotch? Not the Indian tariff on European wines and spirits as a whole? Or the 60% tariff on European car exports? Or the access to the European services industry? Granted, the removal of the UK objections may simplify the process slightly but it's a hell of a leap to claim that it allows a trade deal to be signed.

We still face many issues when it comes to trade talks with various parts of the world incl India. Opening markets with India can help European imports don't forget though the Chinese are backing the Silk Road initiative which will be a huge international market place with particular emphasis on Asia. EU will have to compete with an enormous market place in this Silk Road initiative. Britain could also expand into this market they already have access to China. Relations between the two countries are fairly cozy.