Brexit Referendum Superthread

CrabRevolution

catbear wrote: »

Also add the fact that the rapine of Empire isn't really covered in their schools and the attitude that theirs was a purely benevolent global presence completely ignores the volatile borders they created all over the world.

The generations who witnessed the war and the collapse of Empire were more realistic about Britains place in the world but as they die off, a new nostalgic delusional version of british history has taken over with the annual Poppy fascism increasing every year.

"Lest we forget"

You can't forget what you were never thought.

https://twitter.com/LiamFoxMP/status/705674061016387584

It's scary to think this man isn't a Nick Griffin type fringe right winger who gets 5 minutes of fame, but an actual government minister who will be part of negotiations with the EU.

For all the talk of pragmatism and the "best solution for both sides", I can't help but picture a lot of exchanges like:

French minister "Why should we allow you such a benefit for free, while everyone else has to pay? "
UK minister "Because we're Britain, and you aren't"

German minister "You can't split up and choose from the fundamental rights of the EU"
UK minister "Yes we can, we beat your arses in WW2"

Sam Russell

Obviously Dr Liam Fox MP has not heard of Bomber Harris and Dresden.

Nor did he hear Cameron apologizing for Bloody Sunday, or Widgery's appalling vista, or of the Birmingham six.

Nor has he heard of .... I could go on, but can't be bothered as the list would be long.

catbear

Another Liam Fox production, Empire 2....

Britain will seek to boost trade links with African Commonwealth nations this week in a move described by Whitehall officials as “empire 2.0”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ministers-aim-to-build-empire-2-0-with-african-commonwealth-after-brexit-v9bs6f6z9
Now after all Britain did for them it would be rude if they didn't realign to suit the mother country in its hour of need.

I don't think Scotland leaving can cure them of their delusions, especially when Davis repeatedly stated that he didn't want anymore internal UK borders when talking about Ireland.

They live in a museum.

demfad

ambro25 wrote: »

I'm afraid I'm wholly unconvinced by that point, demfad, after the ignominiously collective trouser-dropping session in Parliament on 1 February, moreover which only came about as a result of private individuals' initiative and efforts [Gina Miller et al]. I don't recall seeing or hearing many MPs lending her much of a hand at the time.

It took the Lords, unencumbered as they are by re-election worries, to stand up to May and Corbyn in the name of national interest. Repeatedly.

Same story with Blair's speech, arguably fully borne from a deep consideration for the national interest, more coherently and cogently than any other by anyone in the opposition, and the best he's ever delivered bar none (and that's all grudgingly from me, as I can hardly tolerate the man). Promptly derided by all, torpedo'ed by labour, trap-door'd inside 48 hours.

Stop peeing in the violin to try and get a tune, and just let them jump off the cliff edge, says I.

Best thing that could happen to the Tory and Labour machines and the British political dualism altogether. Give it 10 years and Tories, Labour and UKIPpers will likely be regarded by the bulk of the British electorate nationally, with the same amount of "esteem" as Maggie still is here, in t' People's Republic of South Yorkshire :pac:

I agree with you but it makes it just that little bit harder if its revocable.
By 2019 Trump will be impeached and under trial for treason. The UK economy will be suffering. If its not revocable that makes no difference. If it is, it might.

Anyway, if some of ye from the Peoples Republic of Yorkshire marched down and finished what Guy Fawkes started you'd end this nonsense quick enough.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

I agree with you but it makes it just that little bit harder if its revocable.
By 2019 Trump will be impeached and under trial for treason. The UK economy will be suffering. If its not revocable that makes no difference. If it is, it might.

Anyway, if some of ye from the Peoples Republic of Yorkshire marched down and finished what Guy Fawkes started you'd end this nonsense quick enough.

If the people from south Yorkshire hadn't voted to leave in the first place......

ambro25

demfad wrote: »

Anyway, if some of ye from the Peoples Republic of Yorkshire marched down and finished what Guy Fawkes started you'd end this nonsense quick enough.

None of this 'ye' stuff, if you please, and Mr Fawkes was a rank amateur by 'our' national standards: I'm French :pac:

Foghladh

swampgas wrote: »

It has never been popular in the UK to look favourably on the EC/EU, or to see the other EU countries as anything other than objects of fun.

The TV tropes down the years have reflected this, Manuel in Fawlty Towers, the French in Allo Allo, the Spanish in Don't Drink the Water, never mind endless WW2 films where Germans and Italians are usually shown as complete caricatures, while the plucky Brits are shown as heroes.

In some ways the UK's view of the world seems to be stuck in WW2: the US and UK are good, Australia/NZ good, Europe weak or evil.

To be fair, in the golden era of Ealing and the great British war movies, the UK had just come out of a total war situation with Germany, Italy and Japan. Given the fact that the Axis had directly exterminated millions of people in Europe and caused the deaths of millions more in warfare it was unlikely that they would share top billing as the plucky heroes.

Fratton Fred

Foghladh wrote: »

To be fair, in the golden era of Ealing and the great British war movies, the UK had just come out of a total war situation with Germany, Italy and Japan. Given the fact that the Axis had directly exterminated millions of people in Europe and caused the deaths of millions more in warfare it was unlikely that they would share top billing as the plucky heroes.

I wonder what captain Crabtree, and RAF officers Carstairs and fairfax are if they aren't caricatures?

indioblack

swampgas wrote: »

It has never been popular in the UK to look favourably on the EC/EU, or to see the other EU countries as anything other than objects of fun.

The TV tropes down the years have reflected this, Manuel in Fawlty Towers, the French in Allo Allo, the Spanish in Don't Drink the Water, never mind endless WW2 films where Germans and Italians are usually shown as complete caricatures, while the plucky Brits are shown as heroes.

In some ways the UK's view of the world seems to be stuck in WW2: the US and UK are good, Australia/NZ good, Europe weak or evil.

I'd have more affection for the bumbling character of Manuel than that of the unstable Basil Fawlty.
And Allo Allo, if I remember rightly, was a send up of another tv series set in WW2 - Secret Army.
Allo Allo was pure Carry On - the French, the Germans, the Brits and the Italians were all equally incompetent and cowardly.

Foghladh

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I wonder what captain Crabtree, and RAF officers Carstairs and fairfax are if they aren't caricatures?

Add Albert Steptoe and Rodney Trotter to the mix and you can see how British comedy writers were deliberately portraying the British in an overly flattering light

ancapailldorcha

Mod: We seem to have veered somewhat off topic. Let's get back on course please.

ambro25

demfad wrote: »

• The UK has no chance of negotiating a good (or any) trade deal in 18 months (2 years - ratification time)
• The UK will either get a poor deal or no deal.
• The UK Govt is fighting to make sure that no deal = Messy exit and splat on the hard WTO floor.
• The UK is not ready to make a deal. White paper is waffle. 'Global Britian' was a theme lifted from the UKIP leave.eu campaign document.
• Ergo: The UK will crash out and will blame the EU/media/remainers.
• The only viable option is the low tax, small Govt Tax haven
• Crash out--Blame--Tax haven: This is in fact the UK 'plan'
• Ireland must now view the most likely outcome as a huge shock from messy hard Brexit followed by the massive threat of a Tax Haven of 60+ million as our nearest neighbour.

Now that, demfad, I'll buy

The EU will give the UK the best deal the EU can, influenced as it will be by its own economic and political factors.

Which may end up being a long way away from the best deal which the UK is after, and which will definitely be a long way away from the deal which Leavers like Boris and Fox have presented as a certitude.

There won't be any cake having and eating, of that I'm absolutely sure.

It's a negotiation at arms' length: both parties start as high as they can 'on paper' (i.e. with a borderline-justifiable basis, just shy of outright indecency), and in the end they'll meet somewhere in the middle...or not at all.

May & her 3 Brexiteers, and the Leave campaign before them, have presented the best-case outcome for the UK, i.e. the UK's opening negotiating position, as the deal which the UK will definitely get. And they still are. According to May so far, the alternative would constitute a "bad deal", which the UK will refuse.

For now, my money is likewise on a "no deal" aim by the Leavers, and they will use the EU Parliament to help their aim, since the EU Parliament has to ratify the deal (just like the UK's Parliament would have to, if the relevant amendment gets into the Article 50 Bill):

• the UK will stall and obfuscate for all it can for 2 years with invoking unreasonableness;
• the draft deal by 2 years will still be 'too good' for the UK;
• the government will ram it past the UK Parliament, which will of course approve it by reason of same;
• the EU Parliament will of course reject it by reason of same;
• 2 year is up, UK out of the EU with no deal;
• Leavers free to blame the EU for not letting the UK having its cake and eating it the de facto situation.

EDIT BBC article about Verhofstadt's statements, quoting a Downing St. statement which confirms sequential timing of the above:

Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated that the UK Parliament will vote on the terms of exit before the European Parliament but that the UK will leave the EU anyway, irrespective of whether MPs approve or reject them.

The UK isn't going to get any deal...

...and it's selling the 16m Remain voters down the river along with the emigrated community:

Asked whether the UK would welcome the opportunity for British nationals to retain some of the benefits of EU citizenship after Brexit, No 10 said it was "not something that we have ever proposed or said that we are looking at".

It's high time for me to multiply the job applications on the Continent, methinks.

An Ciarraioch

BBC Scotland discover that Spain would not veto an EU membership application from an independent Scotland:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XYIMvEvmwSs&feature=youtu.be

catbear

Gove in the Times today.

Theresa May’s decision to give up her favourite crisps for Lent may not have been headline news. I suspect, however, that it’s at least as important as anything else we’ve discovered in the past ten days. Because it goes to the heart of the beliefs that guide, and the background that has shaped, our prime minister.

The principle of Lenten sacrifice, of giving up something cherished to recall the 40 days Jesus spent in the wilderness, is a discipline observed by many Christians. But it is particularly a feature of Catholic practice. And Theresa May is, I believe, Britain’s first Catholic prime minister.

That was the windup and now the pitch......

Britain’s path to preeminence in the past followed our break with Catholicism and embrace of the Reformation. We pursued a global, maritime, buccaneering, individualistic, liberal destiny — the spirit of our capitalism was infused with a very Protestant ethic. Now that we are once more freeing ourselves from a conformist Continent to make our own way in the world the question of whether we need to be more radical to maximise opportunities or more cautious to reassure and protect is central to our politics.

If anyone was in doubt about how far down the rabbit hole the UK was.

A Dub in Glasgo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

BBC Scotland discover that Spain would not veto an EU membership application from an independent Scotland:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XYIMvEvmwSs&feature=youtu.be

Spain has been saying that for years, only the unionists / British nationalists insists that they will veto!

Foghladh

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

BBC Scotland discover that Spain would not veto an EU membership application from an independent Scotland:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XYIMvEvmwSs&feature=youtu.be

Or rather a Spanish MEP has said that Scotland could apply for membership of the EU?

A Dub in Glasgo

Foghladh wrote: »

Or rather a Spanish MEP has said that Scotland could apply for membership of the EU?

Yes and that is factual

Foghladh

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Foghladh wrote: »

Or rather a Spanish MEP has said that Scotland could apply for membership of the EU?

Yes and that is factual

Was there ever any doubt that an independent Scotland could apply for full membership of the EU?

ArthurDayne

catbear wrote: »

Gove in the Times today.



That was the windup and now the pitch......



If anyone was in doubt about how far down the rabbit hole the UK was.

Thanks for sharing that article from Gove -- truly contemptible stuff from Mr Sick Of Experts. Normally I'd at least attempt some form of critique of the salient points, but really, his comments are so plainly delusional and jingoistic that no serious commentary can be applied.

Going off crisps for Lent = segue for psychoanalysis of a person's world view and their motivations in running a country. Ar dóigh.

oppenheimer1

captainspeed wrote: »

Unless there is a short, sharp, shock to the UK economy (ideally before 2019) I can't see any way they'll change their minds on it - and even by then, it will be too late. The best thing for Ireland to do is to plan for life without Britain as a major export and trading partner, it will take them an awful long time to realise their sheer stupidity. Also, the longer it's left before they want to change their minds, the less likely they'd be allowed opt outs should they want to rejoin the EU. It would be massively advantageous to Ireland if they were made use the Euro, not to mention the fact it would greatly boost cross border trade. I always maintain we should never have joined the Euro, but if the British were using the same currency as us it would be much easier to make a case for us using the Euro as well.

Indeed, unless sterling loses another 20-30% and/or major heavy industry closes, such as Airbus, Rolls Royce Nissan and the other car manufacturers decide they're closing shop before 2019 it would be unlikely enough of the working classes would turn.

Enzokk

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Indeed, unless sterling loses another 20-30% and/or major heavy industry closes, such as Airbus, Rolls Royce Nissan and the other car manufacturers decide they're closing shop before 2019 it would be unlikely enough of the working classes would turn.

I think the UK population that voted for Brexit may just be so hardheaded that even in the event of a shock to their economy they will still vote for Brexit. I think the people that voted for Brexit feels so disillusioned the with establishment that they will vote against the ultimate establishment, The EU, again and again, forgetting that the ones that are causing their disillusionment keep getting voted in at local level.

We have already seen that you will have politicians lying through their teeth to get what they want. Nigel Farage is the slickest snake oil salesman out there and he will lie again and again for his own ideology and people will believe him. Add in a few mainstream politicians that are close to the newspaper tycoons, hello Mr Gove, and you have probably close to half the vote already as politicians will lie and newspapers will confirm the lie in print. Surely it has to be true then, right?

catbear

In the week when the Commonwealth will be meeting in the UK here's a perspective from Hong Kong.

In fact, this decision means Britain will actually need to do more, not less, about engaging with its European neighbours.

What appears to be lacking is gracious language about the peace and security that the EU has brought the continent since the second world war, if only to smooth currently fraught relationships between London and the continent. Most of the language about Europe in Britain today looks grudging and insular.

After 2019, the British government has made clear, Asia’s great economies can no longer use Britain as a gateway to the European market. So now is the time for London to provide an integrated picture on how its diplomacy, economics, and security concerns will come together.

First, there has to be a realistic grasp of what a global immigration policy means. Britain will regain control of its visa regime, but the areas where it excels – services such as finance, higher education, and entertainment (music and television) and high value-added manufacturing areas such as aerospace, nano/biotech, and pharmaceuticals will need a highly mobile internationalised working environment that means more, not less, traffic to Britain and yes, more immigration too.

Major British institutions do big medical field trials in China. They are unlikely to be able to develop them further if Chinese scientists can’t come to Britain – and not just top laboratory heads, but the graduate students and postdoctoral fellows who are the lifeblood of global science.

Brexit may not directly affect Indians, whether business investors or software engineers, but it’s certainly sent a message that outsiders are unwelcome. That message needs to be reversed, and urgently.

http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2073483/brexit-britain-missing-asia-policy

catbear

I've been digesting the reactions to the budget last week and what I'm reoccurringly baffled by is how little Brexit was mentioned, I believed Hammond referred jokingly to it only twice in his budget delivery.

However the ragtops tabloids seemed to go at him hard for attacking the white van man yet Brexit will affect their fortunes far more in the medium and long term.

It's like there's a mental myopia about the nations economic global position.

Even at our most hubristic peak during the bubble years I don't believe Ireland ever doubted that its real and or imagined wealth depended on being engaged in the global economy. (Brian Lenehan insisting that there couldn't be capital flight because Ireland was an Island doesn't count, as a former barrister he could lie convincingly)

The difference in the UK is how much they still truly believe their own importance globally, that so serious a disruption to their global trade as Brexit, is gaining so little traction with the people who will be most affected.

It's as if the political disconnect cited as influential to the vote has actually only grown since then and that Brexit must deliver to the disgruntled because it is the will of the people and the people can't be wrong.

djpbarry

catbear wrote: »

The difference in the UK is how much they still truly believe their own importance globally, that so serious a disruption to their global trade as Brexit, is gaining so little traction with the people who will be most affected.

Even on a more local level, there is a belief that the UK is vastly superior to the rest of Europe in almost every respect. The result of this is the common misconception that the EU is holding the UK back. The reality is that incomes (for example) in the UK are low by modern European standards and productivity is seriously lagging behind other European countries. It's difficult to envisage how leaving the EU will address such issues.

stefanovich

djpbarry wrote: »

Even on a more local level, there is a belief that the UK is vastly superior to the rest of Europe in almost every respect. The result of this is the common misconception that the EU is holding the UK back. The reality is that incomes (for example) in the UK are low by modern European standards and productivity is seriously lagging behind other European countries. It's difficult to envisage how leaving the EU will address such issues.

Everyone I know in England, apart from a few Irish builders, are loaded.

First Up

stefanovich wrote:

Everyone I know in England, apart from a few Irish builders, are loaded.

So it sounds as if the UK has done pretty well out of 40+ years of EU membership. Why fix it if it isn't broke?

A Dub in Glasgo

stefanovich wrote: »

Everyone I know in England, apart from a few Irish builders, are loaded.

Define 'loaded' and let us know how many you 'know' in England?

Fratton Fred

catbear wrote: »

I've been digesting the reactions to the budget last week and what I'm reoccurringly baffled by is how little Brexit was mentioned, I believed Hammond referred jokingly to it only twice in his budget delivery.

his opening statement was that it was a budget to provide a good stable position for Brexit negotiations. The whole budget was about Brexit.

catbear wrote: »

Even at our most hubristic peak during the bubble years I don't believe Ireland ever doubted that its real and or imagined wealth depended on being engaged in the global economy. (Brian Lenehan insisting that there couldn't be capital flight because Ireland was an Island doesn't count, as a former barrister he could lie convincingly)

The difference in the UK is how much they still truly believe their own importance globally, that so serious a disruption to their global trade as Brexit, is gaining so little traction with the people who will be most affected.

the UK is the world's fifth largest economy. That makes them important.

The UK is leaving the eu, it isn't about to adopt isolationist policies.

Nody

Fratton Fred wrote: »

the UK is the world's fifth largest economy. That makes them important.

Was; currently estimated as seventh or eight and they are right next to the largest trade block on earth with the largest combined economy; that makes them a lot less relevant even at 7th position esp. as they are not a high growth country in the first place.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The UK is leaving the eu, it isn't about to adopt isolationist policies.

You mean policies such as reduced immigration, increase use of British citizens (somehow), reduced global trade (no trade deals) and relying on their own companies picking up the slack in local trade?

Foghladh

Nody wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

the UK is the world's fifth largest economy. That makes them important.

Was; currently estimated as seventh or eight and they are right next to the largest trade block on earth with the largest combined economy; that makes them a lot less relevant even at 7th position esp. as they are not a high growth country in the first place.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The UK is leaving the eu, it isn't about to adopt isolationist policies.

You mean policies such as reduced immigration, increase use of British citizens (somehow), reduced global trade (no trade deals) and relying on their own companies picking up the slack in local trade?

Out of curiosity, where exactly have you seen the figures estimating the UK economy as seventh or eighth?