Brexit Referendum Superthread

Fratton Fred

Nody wrote: »

Was; currently estimated as seventh or eight and they are right next to the largest trade block on earth with the largest combined economy; that makes them a lot less relevant even at 7th position esp. as they are not a high growth country in the first place.

estimated by whom?

Not that it matters really, it is still a large economy. It's geography is irrelevant, it is a large market which means people will want to do business with it.

The economy is growing at around 2% per year, that isn't high, but it is in line with its peers.

Nody wrote: »

You mean policies such as reduced immigration, increase use of British citizens (somehow), reduced global trade (no trade deals) and relying on their own companies picking up the slack in local trade?

What has reduced immigration got to do with it? Plenty of large economies have far stricter immigration policies than the UK is likely to have.

The UK will have to create trade deals, but will have to use WTO standards in the interim. There is nothing coming out if the UK that suggests it is going to close up shop. In fact, London has a campaign at the moment entitled "London is open".

catbear

Foghladh wrote: »

Out of curiosity, where exactly have you seen the figures estimating the UK economy as seventh or eighth?

Maybe on purchasing power perhaps?


That was 2014 so I image the UK will be further down by that metric after it's completed the Brexit slimfast programme.

Nody

Foghladh wrote: »

Out of curiosity, where exactly have you seen the figures estimating the UK economy as seventh or eighth?

Simple maths; at 1.14 EUR to the GBP it becomes sixth (this is the current google rate); add in loss of UK Finance services (NY or Europe for the parts moving as noted by companies already)/manufacturing in general and another currency drop once hard brexit comes around and you end up on 7th/8th as a likely end point. Could be worse obviously but it should be about right on ball park level.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

What has reduced immigration got to do with it? Plenty of large economies have far stricter immigration policies than the UK is likely to have.

That might come as a shock to the Brexiteers. By all accounts many of them expect the UK to return to the 1950's, when everything was great and Johnny foreigner knew his place.

Foghladh

Nody wrote: »

Foghladh wrote: »

Out of curiosity, where exactly have you seen the figures estimating the UK economy as seventh or eighth?

Simple maths; at 1.14 EUR to the GBP it becomes sixth (this is the current google rate); add in loss of UK Finance services (NY or Europe for the parts moving as noted by companies already)/manufacturing in general and another currency drop once hard brexit comes around and you end up on 7th/8th as a likely end point. Could be worse obviously but it should be about right on ball park level.

My mistake. I just picked up on the bit where you said that the UK was currently estimated at 7th or 8th. I didn't realise that you were factoring in potential losses of services and manufacturing and a further drop in the value of sterling

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It's geography is irrelevant, it is a large market which means people will want to do business with it.

If it was the (8th/9th) largest economy in the world but biggest in its region your point would be valid as many of the other smaller regional countries would want to do business with it.

As it borders the largest Market on the planet the relative importance of being 7-8th largest market is massively diminished.

People might want to still deal in goods or services that are cheaper and/or better quality than the EU. The UK unfortunately now will be poorest in both categories.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

If it was the (8th/9th) largest economy in the world but biggest in its region your point would be valid as many of the other smaller regional countries would want to do business with it.

As it borders the largest Market on the planet the relative importance of being 7-8th largest market is massively diminished.

People might want to still deal in goods or services that are cheaper and/or better quality than the EU. The UK unfortunately now will be poorest in both categories.

so Huawei will now suddenly tell Vodafone that sorry, we don't want to deal with you anymore, we only want to deal with the eu, or Google will suddenly tell the UK to stop using their services?

That's just daft to be honest.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so Huawei will now suddenly tell Vodafone that sorry, we don't want to deal with you anymore, we only want to deal with the eu, or Google will suddenly tell the UK to stop using their services?

That's just daft to be honest.

I didn't imply that all trade to or from UK would stop or would suddenly stop, that is a strawman argument by you: rather I disproved your assertion that geography was irrelevant in trade issues.

Fratton Fred

Nody wrote: »

Simple maths; at 1.14 EUR to the GBP it becomes sixth (this is the current google rate); add in loss of UK Finance services (NY or Europe for the parts moving as noted by companies already)/manufacturing in general and another currency drop once hard brexit comes around and you end up on 7th/8th as a likely end point. Could be worse obviously but it should be about right on ball park level.

so it is your estimate then, or to put it another way, a guess.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

I didn't imply that all trade to or from UK would stop or would suddenly stop, that is a strawman argument by you: rather I disproved your assertion that geography was irrelevant in trade issues.

it is irrelevant to an economy like the UK's. It is important to Ireland because 90% of the multinationals here use it as a gateway to europe, because the economy is fairly small. The UK has a large market (Google's largest outside of the US, for example and one of the largest car importers in the world). None of that is dependant on it being next to France, it is for domestic consumption.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it is irrelevant to an economy like the UK's. It is important to Ireland because 90% of the multinationals here use it as a gateway to europe, because the economy is fairly small. The UK has a large market (Google's largest outside of the US, for example and one of the largest car importers in the world). None of that is dependant on it being next to France, it is for domestic consumption.

Sure the UK will lose out on FDI and gateways to Europe (less-so than Ireland).

Yes the UK will have an advantage for domestic consumption apart from the products it has to import or can import more cheaply.

Back to the point about GDP size and geography:

If the UK as a top 10 world GDP country was the largest economy in Europe then in theory it will be very competitive in TRADE with the other economies.

If the worlds biggest single market borders the UK then the UK is relatively less competitive because its products generally will be either dearer or of less quality than those from the EU.

This is assuming the UK is not fully integrated inside the Single market in which case the EUs advantages would largely dissapear.

Sam Russell

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so Huawei will now suddenly tell Vodafone that sorry, we don't want to deal with you anymore, we only want to deal with the eu, or Google will suddenly tell the UK to stop using their services?

That's just daft to be honest.

Vodafone is a multinational corporation that has business in many EU states - why they even have a base here. They will do business anywhere - if it makes money.

The EU will be easier, and therefore more profitable, for MNCs to do business than within a UK outside the customs union with a floating currency and tariffs to restrict trade. But MNCs will adapt and move around to counter such restrictions - not so easy for the SMEs that make up the backbone of industry, both within the EU and the UK, and particularly within Ireland, both north and south.

stefanovich

First Up wrote:

That might come as a shock to the Brexiteers. By all accounts many of them expect the UK to return to the 1950's, when everything was great and Johnny foreigner knew his place.

Hasty with the stereotypes there. One might even call it prejudice.

catbear

stefanovich wrote: »

Hasty with the stereotypes there. One might even call it prejudice.

Coming from a country whose foreign minister considers leaving the EU a liberation.

Leave the bullshíte posting to the other thread.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Ok, lets try to keep away from point scoring and towards serious debate please.

Nody

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so it is your estimate then, or to put it another way, a guess.

Seeing how we're talking about the size of UKs economy in 2019 it's a tad hard to quote facts; would you not agree?

catbear

Ok, Sturgeon is out of the blocks and calling for indyRef2 in either late 2018 or early 2019 when the terms of Brexit become clear.

If the talks crash within six months as many reports seem to suggest wil happen then she'll have a clear case for Scotland to become an independent sovereign future member of the EU.

She's good.

demfad

catbear wrote: »

Ok, Sturgeon is out of the blocks and calling for indyRef2 in either late 2018 or early 2019 when the terms of Brexit become clear.

If the talks crash within six months as many reports seem to suggest wil happen then she'll have a clear case for Scotland to become an independent sovereign future member of the EU.

She's good.

It's good timing.
May will know that 'crashing out' of the EU will effectively mean losing Scotland. No-deal from the EU WILL be a bad deal for the United Kingdom.

wes

demfad wrote: »

It's good timing.
May will know that 'crashing out' of the EU will effectively mean losing Scotland. No-deal from the EU WILL be a bad deal for the United Kingdom.

She could end this right now, if she were to go for a soft Brexit. I think she will pull a Cameron, either by letting the referendum go ahead, and lose, or blocking it and guranteeing that they leave further down the line.

djpbarry

stefanovich wrote: »

Everyone I know in England, apart from a few Irish builders, are loaded.

Good for them.

Meanwhile, the average income in the UK lags behind most of Northern Europe:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_average_wage
https://www.reinisfischer.com/average-salary-european-union-2016

With sterling depreciating as it is, this gap is only going to grow larger.

djpbarry

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so Huawei will now suddenly tell Vodafone that sorry, we don't want to deal with you anymore, we only want to deal with the eu, or Google will suddenly tell the UK to stop using their services?

That's just daft to be honest.

Of course it is. But it’s equally daft to assume that the UK becoming a separate market to the rest of the EU is not going to have an impact on the ease with which such companies can do business in the UK. I’m not saying that you have said this, but plenty of advocates of Brexit have.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it is irrelevant to an economy like the UK's. It is important to Ireland because 90% of the multinationals here use it as a gateway to europe, because the economy is fairly small. The UK has a large market (Google's largest outside of the US, for example and one of the largest car importers in the world). None of that is dependant on it being next to France, it is for domestic consumption.

Well, I would say it’s both – the exporting of services to the EU is extremely important to the UK economy.

catbear

wes wrote: »

She could end this right now, if she were to go for a soft Brexit. I think she will pull a Cameron, either by letting the referendum go ahead, and lose, or blocking it and guranteeing that they leave further down the line.

If May blocks the indyref then that's the end of the political union with Scotland.

Professor Moriarty

catbear wrote: »

If May blocks the indyref then that's the end of the political union with Scotland.

It's exactly what the SNP want. They'd prefer it to May agreeing.

wes

catbear wrote: »

If May blocks the indyref then that's the end of the political union with Scotland.

Well, she might. Just look at how she wants to handle Brexit, with little or no involvement from Parliment, with them just acting as a rubber stamping the whole thing.

She might just block it. She has an autoritiarian streak about her.

Fratton Fred

Nody wrote: »

Seeing how we're talking about the size of UKs economy in 2019 it's a tad hard to quote facts; would you not agree?

it is, but if you make a claim that "According to estimates" you should at least state that what you mean is "According to my estimates", so we know where your information is actually coming.

djpbarry wrote: »

Of course it is. But it’s equally daft to assume that the UK becoming a separate market to the rest of the EU is not going to have an impact on the ease with which such companies can do business in the UK. I’m not saying that you have said this, but plenty of advocates of Brexit have.

it is daft, but in theory, it shouldn't be any harder for the likes fo Huawei to do business in the UK. In fact, if the eu make life difficult, it might be easier for them than it is for Siemens or Nokia.

djpbarry wrote: »

Well, I would say it’s both – the exporting of services to the EU is extremely important to the UK economy.

yes, UK exports are very important, but my original point was that being next to the eu does not make the UK's economy any less (or more for that matter) attractive post Brexit. The UK will not suddenly become a small economy, smaller maybe, but even the worst estimates still see it larger than Italy.

djpbarry

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it is daft, but in theory, it shouldn't be any harder for the likes fo Huawei to do business in the UK.

It necessarily must be more difficult. What is currently a single market will become two. You can argue that it might not be much harder for Huawei (or whoever else) to do business in the UK, but it sure ain’t going to get any easier for anyone.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

yes, UK exports are very important, but my original point was that being next to the eu does not make the UK's economy any less (or more for that matter) attractive post Brexit. The UK will not suddenly become a small economy, smaller maybe, but even the worst estimates still see it larger than Italy.

Fred, come off it – geography matters. The UK currently has one of the largest, most lucrative markets in the world right on its doorstep, with all the convenience that entails. You can do all the free trade deals you like with Australia and New Zealand, for logistical reasons alone, doing business in Sydney is never going to be as easy for a UK-based firm as doing business in Paris. The world is getting smaller, but Sydney is still 17,000 km from London (and also in a totally different time zone).

Fratton Fred

djpbarry wrote: »

It necessarily must be more difficult. What is currently a single market will become two. You can argue that it might not be much harder for Huawei (or whoever else) to do business in the UK, but it sure ain’t going to get any easier for anyone.

if a company is importing something from China, it will be no harder post Brexit than it is now.

djpbarry wrote: »

Fred, come off it – geography matters. The UK currently has one of the largest, most lucrative markets in the world right on its doorstep, with all the convenience that entails. You can do all the free trade deals you like with Australia and New Zealand, for logistical reasons alone, doing business in Sydney is never going to be as easy for a UK-based firm as doing business in Paris. The world is getting smaller, but Sydney is still 17,000 km from London (and also in a totally different time zone).

you are missing the point. The claim was made that regardless of how big the UK's economy is, it will become irrelevant because it is next to a larger economy.

A Mexican, Brazilian or Australian exporter isn't suddenly going to decide not to trade with their UK based customers, because the EU is next door and a bigger market. They will want to trade with both.

wes

Fratton Fred wrote: »

if a company is importing something from China, it will be no harder post Brexit than it is now.

you are missing the point. The claim was made that regardless of how big the UK's economy is, it will become irrelevant because it is next to a larger economy.

A Mexican, Brazilian or Australian exporter isn't suddenly going to decide not to trade with their UK based customers, because the EU is next door and a bigger market. They will want to trade with both.

Except that if they were trading and they had a deal with the EU, that deal will be gone, and they will be on WTO rules, until they can negotiate new trade agreements, which may take years, as the UK doesn't have the staff to do it. This will be an immediate hit to trade, especially as May seems intent on a chaotic hard Brexit.

marienbad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

A Mexican, Brazilian or Australian exporter isn't suddenly going to decide not to trade with their UK based customers, because the EU is next door and a bigger market. They will want to trade with both.

I think the point being made Fred is that despite all the talk of globalisation a staggering percentage of trade is still with a country's immediate neighbours .

I will try and find the % , I was amazed how high it was

Fratton Fred

marienbad wrote: »

I think the point being made Fred is that despite all the talk of globalisation a staggering percentage of trade is still with a country's immediate neighbours .

I will try and find the % , I was amazed how high it was

about 44%. This site is probably the most balanced I have found https://fullfact.org/europe/ask-full-fact-uks-trade-eu/

The argument was the one below and is what I replied to.

demfad wrote: »

If it was the (8th/9th) largest economy in the world but biggest in its region your point would be valid as many of the other smaller regional countries would want to do business with it.

As it borders the largest Market on the planet the relative importance of being 7-8th largest market is massively diminished.

People might want to still deal in goods or services that are cheaper and/or better quality than the EU. The UK unfortunately now will be poorest in both categories.