Brexit Referendum Superthread

ancapailldorcha

Still an incredibly high percentage though and the biggest single market the UK exports to.

catbear

It's a daily mail source so pinch of salt.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

about 44%. This site is probably the most balanced I have found https://fullfact.org/europe/ask-full-fact-uks-trade-eu/

The argument was the one below and is what I replied to.

Some of the deficit that the UK runs is due to having to import a sizeable amount of the raw materials/parts for its industry.
The single market therefore facilitates British exports. This will make industry less competitive abroad and make the EU more attractive to UK based industry who will become less competitive with EU and other rivals post Brexit.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

Some of the deficit that the UK runs is due to having to import a sizeable amount of the raw materials/parts for its industry.
The single market therefore facilitates British exports. This will make industry less competitive abroad and make the EU more attractive to UK based industry who will become less competitive with EU and other rivals post Brexit.

Yes.

You'll never believe what bears do in the woods:P

ancapailldorcha

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Yes.

You'll never believe what beers do in the woods:P

Less of this please. This isn't your first warning.

Thomas__

I find this three part article very interesting and very telling about the ambivalent relationship the UK had and still has with Europe (i.e. the EU) and most interesting in all that is, that from the very start, it was Labour who opposed the UK´s entry into the EEC. Just the Blair years were different to this long standing "tradition" and looking at Corbyn these days, he is himself in this old tradition, eventhough he won´t admit it.

It is certainly a long reading, but it is worth it cos it highlightens some aspects which are good enough to reflect the acting of this present UK govt which will end up with a "no deal Exit from the EU" for the UK and probably the very break up of the UK itself, given the recent reiterated ambitions of the SNP for IndyRef2.

It is really as I have seen it for a long time, the Brits were always half-hearted committed to the EEC / EU and nowadays it appears as if they still are mourning about their lost empire and world leading rule they once had. For me, such sentiments are the driving force behind some of the Brexiteers, deluded nostalgia for a long gone era which won´t come back anymore.
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/0225/855110-britain-and-europe/

Thomas__

Interesting article about EU citizens leaving the UK because of Brexit. This going on since the Brexit vote, but the numbers appear to increase in due course as the Brit govt is more set out for a hard Brexit and what is interesting in this article are the stories from the People who (yet) still work in the UK and what they tell about their experiences and the reasons for why some of their colleagues have left and why even some of those speaking in this article are preparing to leave.

Most interesting in all this is the health sector, very vunerable to losses of staff (including doctors).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/14/lots-of-nurses-have-already-left-eu-workers-head-for-Exit

But hey, this doesn´t bother Mrs May, for she will "have her cake and eat it", together with Mr Johnson and the rest of the Brexiteers. They simply refuse to realise what impact this Brexit will have on their country and it just has started. The more EU citizens leave, the harder they will struggle to replace them because it isn´t that easy to simply replace an EU citizen by a UK citizen if both have not the same qualifications and skills. But this is what the Brexiteers want, reducing the numbers of foreign residents, no matter how skilled they are.

djpbarry

Fratton Fred wrote: »

if a company is importing something from China, it will be no harder post Brexit than it is now.

That’s not necessarily true. First of all, as pointed out above, a trade agreement between the UK and China does not yet exist. Secondly, suppose a business in the UK is importing from China via Amsterdam? They’ll have to rethink their logistical operations.

This insistence that everything will just default to an “everything is grand” state when the UK leaves the EU is completely and utterly delusional. Sure, a lot of the obstacles are surmountable, but they are obstacles that must be negotiated and this involves time and effort that Brexiteers are so far largely refusing to acknowledge. In so doing, they are setting themselves up for a massive fall when it becomes apparent that sorting out affairs post-Brexit becomes a lot more complex than originally envisaged – the electorate is going to get increasingly impatient.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

you are missing the point. The claim was made that regardless of how big the UK's economy is, it will become irrelevant because it is next to a larger economy.

A Mexican, Brazilian or Australian exporter isn't suddenly going to decide not to trade with their UK based customers, because the EU is next door and a bigger market. They will want to trade with both.

To be fair, the point was that it would become less relevant and it is a fair point.

But yes, of course people are still going to want to trade with the UK, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they will. Leaving the political realities to one side for a moment (it’s hard to see Brazil or Mexico agreeing to anything that doesn’t involve increased access to the UK labour market for their citizens, which ain’t going to fly with the British electorate), let’s say a business in Brazil sends a consignment of goods to Germany. Let’s say 40% of that is for the German market, 20% is heading onward to the UK and the other 40% is to be distributed to other EU countries. Post-Brexit, that UK-German supply route is going to contain additional hurdles, which may, at the very least, result in that 20% figure being reduced. Or, perhaps in the worst case scenario, the exporter (or the importer in the UK) may decide it’s too much trouble and just abandon the deal altogether.

Once again, the point is that simply assuming that business will continue interrupted as usual is utter folly – there are a myriad of potential complications that must be considered.

First Up

djpbarry wrote: »

But yes, of course people are still going to want to trade with the UK, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they will. Leaving the political realities to one side for a moment (it’s hard to see Brazil or Mexico agreeing to anything that doesn’t involve increased access to the UK labour market for their citizens, which ain’t going to fly with the British electorate), let’s say a business in Brazil sends a consignment of goods to Germany. Let’s say 40% of that is for the German market, 20% is heading onward to the UK and the other 40% is to be distributed to other EU countries. Post-Brexit, that UK-German supply route is going to contain additional hurdles, which may, at the very least, result in that 20% figure being reduced. Or, perhaps in the worst case scenario, the exporter (or the importer in the UK) may decide it’s too much trouble and just abandon the deal altogether.

This is the sort of detail that eludes those viewing the issue without an understanding of how important supply chain management is to global trade. As barriers are reduced, trade becomes both more plentiful and more inter-dependent. The impact of Brexit on "break bulk" operations in Hamburg or Rotterdam (or Felixtowe) is exactly the sort of thing that is going to disrupt supply chains, add cost, lengthen delivery times and all in all, make it less attractive to do business with the UK.

We will be impacted by that too and that whole subject is getting very close attention. Business across the world will be looking for ways to take the UK out of their supply chains. Of course they will still have to go through the procedures to sell into the UK itself, but transit trade will be drastically reduced.

oscarBravo

Thomas__ wrote: »

I find this three part article very interesting and very telling about the ambivalent relationship the UK had and still has with Europe...

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/0225/855110-britain-and-europe/

For anyone who found that interesting (I did, thanks!) the other two parts are here and here.

Thomas__

oscarBravo wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

I find this three part article very interesting and very telling about the ambivalent relationship the UK had and still has with Europe...

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/0225/855110-britain-and-europe/

For anyone who found that interesting (I did, thanks!) the other two parts are here and here.

Sorry, I might had given the hint that the link to part two and three are always at the bottom of the article. So, thanks that you´ve bothered to set up the links to the other parts.

Fratton Fred

djpbarry wrote: »

That’s not necessarily true. First of all, as pointed out above, a trade agreement between the UK and China does not yet exist. Secondly, suppose a business in the UK is importing from China via Amsterdam? They’ll have to rethink their logistical operations.

yes, they will. I can see some form of Free Trade Zone being established somewhere like Rotterdam or Southampton to help negate the effects of this.

djpbarry wrote: »

This insistence that everything will just default to an “everything is grand” state when the UK leaves the EU is completely and utterly delusional. Sure, a lot of the obstacles are surmountable, but they are obstacles that must be negotiated and this involves time and effort that Brexiteers are so far largely refusing to acknowledge.

a lot of people will fail to understand these obstacles. I work in a global role. so i know only too well how difficult they can be, but they aren't the end of the world that some people seem to think they are.

The current agreement with China is little more than the WTO most favoured nations terms, with some added cooperation type agreements and an agreement to agree something better.

djpbarry wrote: »

To be fair, the point was that it would become less relevant and it is a fair point.

But yes, of course people are still going to want to trade with the UK, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they will. Leaving the political realities to one side for a moment (it’s hard to see Brazil or Mexico agreeing to anything that doesn’t involve increased access to the UK labour market for their citizens, which ain’t going to fly with the British electorate), let’s say a business in Brazil sends a consignment of goods to Germany. Let’s say 40% of that is for the German market, 20% is heading onward to the UK and the other 40% is to be distributed to other EU countries. Post-Brexit, that UK-German supply route is going to contain additional hurdles, which may, at the very least, result in that 20% figure being reduced. Or, perhaps in the worst case scenario, the exporter (or the importer in the UK) may decide it’s too much trouble and just abandon the deal altogether.

True, but there will also be the scenario where 60% is headed to the UK, 20% to the eu and 20% to Russia or onwards. it is in every one's interests to make it as painless as they possibly can. That is, after all, the fundamental basis of the WTO.

djpbarry

Fratton Fred wrote: »

yes, they will. I can see some form of Free Trade Zone being established somewhere like Rotterdam or Southampton to help negate the effects of this.

With all due respect, that is wishful thinking, to say the least.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

a lot of people will fail to understand these obstacles. I work in a global role. so i know only too well how difficult they can be, but they aren't the end of the world that some people seem to think they are.

Well I’m certainly not suggesting they represent the end of the world, but they do represent an obstacle to trade, which will almost certainly result in a reduction in trade volumes. It may not be a significant reduction, but it will be a reduction none-the-less.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

True, but there will also be the scenario where 60% is headed to the UK, 20% to the eu and 20% to Russia or onwards. it is in every one's interests to make it as painless as they possibly can. That is, after all, the fundamental basis of the WTO.

Sure, but the overwhelming majority of freight going into the EU is destined for EU destinations other than the UK and this is what any political arrangements are going to prioritise. Going back to your original point, this is what people mean when they say that, for the UK, being next to one of the largest economies in the world (which it is choosing to remove itself from) absolutely will have an impact on how companies outside the EU do business with the UK.

Fratton Fred

djpbarry wrote: »

Sure, but the overwhelming majority of freight going into the EU is destined for EU destinations other than the UK and this is what any political arrangements are going to prioritise.

what political arrangements? we're talking about simple shipping of freight.

Container goes in to Rotterdam, into a bonded warehouse, logged and shipped to the UK.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

Container goes in to Rotterdam, into a bonded warehouse, logged and shipped to the UK.

For goods going to UK it can operate as it does now. For goods imported from India, China, US etc intended for distribution across the EU, the UK is greatly reducing its attraction as a transhipment point.

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

For goods going to UK it can operate as it does now. For goods imported from India, China, US etc intended for distribution across the EU, the UK is greatly reducing its attraction as a transhipment point.

I would have said the English Channel kind of reduced that any way, plus there's a rather large deep water port just over in Rotterdam.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36229579

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

I would have said the English Channel kind of reduced that any way, plus there's a rather large deep water port just over in Rotterdam.

You are missing the point. Many goods enter the European market for distribution to several countries, not always in sealed containers. Many goods are imported in bulk then divided into smaller quantities and re-packaged before going to final customers. Doing that when having to enter the UK, then exit it and enter the EU (or the reverse process) disrupts the supply chain.

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

You are missing the point. Many goods enter the European market for distribution to several countries, not always in sealed containers. Many goods are imported in bulk then divided into smaller quantities and re-packaged before going to final customers. Doing that when having to enter the UK, then exit it and enter the EU (or the reverse process) disrupts the supply chain.

OK, for smaller goods like Pharmaceuticals etc yes, I would agree. Most of that would be done in the BeNeLux region though, the only problem will be exporting those goods in to the UK.

its a pain, but it doesn't suddenly diminish the UK as a market.

murphaph

Fratton Fred wrote: »

OK, for smaller goods like Pharmaceuticals etc yes, I would agree. Most of that would be done in the BeNeLux region though, the only problem will be exporting those goods in to the UK.

its a pain, but it doesn't suddenly diminish the UK as a market.

I'm sure any added barrier to trade increases cost, thus reducing margin, thus reducing the attractiveness of that market.

Nody

Fratton Fred wrote: »

OK, for smaller goods like Pharmaceuticals etc yes, I would agree. Most of that would be done in the BeNeLux region though, the only problem will be exporting those goods in to the UK.

its a pain, but it doesn't suddenly diminish the UK as a market.

Except you now need to do two customer clearings, prove that you've met two different standards (remember UK will no longer align with EU standards or approvals), origin of items (quarantine/duties which will vary between EU/UK) etc. All of that adds additional cost going into the UK market which currently does not exist which by definition makes UK less interesting simply because the cost of entry to the market has increased compared to simply expanding further in EU to new markets without any additional cost or workload.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

OK, for smaller goods like Pharmaceuticals etc yes, I would agree. Most of that would be done in the BeNeLux region though, the only problem will be exporting those goods in to the UK.

It also applies to many foodstuffs and high value industrial and technical products that move through different stages of processing and assembly.

Fratton Fred wrote:

its a pain, but it doesn't suddenly diminish the UK as a market.

It makes the UK less attractive as a transport and distribution hub and as a processing centre and it increases the cost of both importing into and exporting from the UK.

djpbarry

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Container goes in to Rotterdam, into a bonded warehouse, logged and shipped to the UK.

As pointed out above, a lot of what goes into and out of the UK via continental Europe does not fall into that category.

Thomas__

murphaph wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

OK, for smaller goods like Pharmaceuticals etc yes, I would agree. Most of that would be done in the BeNeLux region though, the only problem will be exporting those goods in to the UK.

its a pain, but it doesn't suddenly diminish the UK as a market.

I'm sure any added barrier to trade increases cost, thus reducing margin, thus reducing the attractiveness of that market.

Bears some logic. The big blow has yet to come for the Brits, once they are out of the EU. Recent developments in the UK (for example more and more EU citizens leaving the country, leaving behind vacations on Jobs not that easily filled by UK citizens on grounds of qualificaion, skills etc.) are just the beginning.

By all the critics the present EU deserves, the Brits have made a big mistake by voting to leave the EU for the favour of a post-imperial pipe dream which will cost them dearly. The Brits won´t "rule" the world again, neither get any "leading position" again, cos those times are long gone and the big players of today have no interest to make room for the Brits and share power and influence with them. But well, some people are too stubborn to accept realities and the rules of this global world in which the UK is just a small Island in compare to the big nations, USA, Russia and China.

I pity the 48% remainers even more day by day as this Brexit procedure is about to unfold towards a hard Brexit.

Thomas__

While the British PM Mrs May is dishing out threats and - let me put it this way - "talks with a forged tongue", the EU remains reasonable but not be intimidated by her:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0315/859882-brexit-european-union-donald-tusk/

Mrs May and Chancellor Philip Hammond have indicated that if a favourable trade deal cannot be reached, Britain is ready to transform itself into a low-tax, low-regulation zone off the shore of Europe to lure international business away from its former Partners.

The Brits are apparently omitting the possibility of tarifs by the EU and tarifs will be on the table, when it all ends up in a hard Brexit and the Brits will do as they say like in this quotation above.

"I want to be clear that a 'no-deal scenario' would be bad for everyone, but above all for the UK, because it would leave a number of issues unresolved.
"We will not be intimidated by threats, and I can assure you they simply will not work.

That´s more like it.

"Britain will be dearly missed as an EU member state. At the same time, I would like to stress again that the EU's door will always remain open for our British friends."
He added: "When it comes to negotiations, we will have no choice but to start the withdrawal talks once the UK notifies. We are carefully preparing for these negotiations, in close consultation with member states and the European Parliament."

That is what I find reasonable, leaving the door open for a time when the now 48% of remainers might get a majority in the future to reverse the referendum result form 2016.

Professor Moriarty

Thomas__ wrote: »

Bears some logic. The big blow has yet to come for the Brits, once they are out of the EU. Recent developments in the UK (for example more and more EU citizens leaving the country, leaving behind vacations on Jobs not that easily filled by UK citizens on grounds of qualificaion, skills etc.) are just the beginning.

By all the critics the present EU deserves, the Brits have made a big mistake by voting to leave the EU for the favour of a post-imperial pipe dream which will cost them dearly. The Brits won´t "rule" the world again, neither get any "leading position" again, cos those times are long gone and the big players of today have no interest to make room for the Brits and share power and influence with them. But well, some people are too stubborn to accept realities and the rules of this global world in which the UK is just a small Island in compare to the big nations, USA, Russia and China.

I pity the 48% remainers even more day by day as this Brexit procedure is about to unfold towards a hard Brexit.

Lots more bigger countries (markets) will begin to flex their muscles India, Brazil, Indonesia....Russia.... There's also the pesky trading bloc with 570,000,000 people on the bloody doorstep competing with the UK..... England, Wales and Norn Iron .....England and Wales.

Thomas__

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

Bears some logic. The big blow has yet to come for the Brits, once they are out of the EU. Recent developments in the UK (for example more and more EU citizens leaving the country, leaving behind vacations on Jobs not that easily filled by UK citizens on grounds of qualificaion, skills etc.) are just the beginning.

By all the critics the present EU deserves, the Brits have made a big mistake by voting to leave the EU for the favour of a post-imperial pipe dream which will cost them dearly. The Brits won´t "rule" the world again, neither get any "leading position" again, cos those times are long gone and the big players of today have no interest to make room for the Brits and share power and influence with them. But well, some people are too stubborn to accept realities and the rules of this global world in which the UK is just a small Island in compare to the big nations, USA, Russia and China.

I pity the 48% remainers even more day by day as this Brexit procedure is about to unfold towards a hard Brexit.

Lots more bigger countries (markets) will begin to flex their muscles India, Brazil, Indonesia....Russia.... There's also the pesky trading bloc with 570,000,000 people on the bloody doorstep competing with the UK..... England, Wales and Norn Iron .....England and Wales.

Well, that doesn´t seem to bother the Brexiteers at all.

Professor Moriarty

Thomas__ wrote: »

Well, that doesn´t seem to bother the Brexiteers at all.

It must have occurred to them. Perhaps they have some secret plan that nobody knows about. Perhaps they don't believe 'experts' anymore. Perhaps their egos won't allow them to admit they're wrong. Perhaps they don't give a sh1t about the ordinary man as long as their Little Englander dream is fulfilled.

Thomas__

Some other nasty things that appear to thrive since BrexitRef last year.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/mar/15/beware-jews-road-sign-north-london-reported-Police

London used to be a cosmopolitan City, for all kind of people from around the world. This is one incident, but as it happened, one incident coming to another makes more in time and it is sad to see that far-right scum is breathing "fresh air" and feel encouraged to show their ugly faces wherever it pleases them. This incident is equal to me like the provocative marches of the Britain First movement going into Muslim quaters in order to "take the country back". The sign is not of the same shape like those the Nazis used back in the 1930s and 1940s, but it bears the same message which is that Jews are not welcome (to say the least) or even that the perpetrator(s) of this incident wants to send them a message which reads like "get out" and look at them like "subhumans". This is where it all started back then, and the signes - eventhough if they are not the same - bear the same message, the ugly and insane anti-semitism.

Thomas__

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

Well, that doesn´t seem to bother the Brexiteers at all.

It must have occurred to them. Perhaps they have some secret plan that nobody knows about. Perhaps they don't believe 'experts' anymore. Perhaps their egos won't allow them to admit they're wrong. Perhaps they don't give a sh1t about the ordinary man as long as their Little Englander dream is fulfilled.

I think that you´re quite right on them, it is how their brains work and it shows how sheep-minded their followers are, completely arsed.

Professor Moriarty

Thomas__ wrote: »

I think that you´re quite right on them, it is how their brains work and it shows how sheep-minded their followers are, completely arsed.

They've been conditioned for thirty years to hate the EU. The Tory press did a good job.