Brexit Referendum Superthread

Thomas__

captainspeed wrote: »

Be in no doubt they'll blame the EU, sure Farage has already started doing so! The right wing press is already starting to blame the EU.

You know what, I've always been a little bit ambivalent in terms of my support towards the EU (despite being a lifelong FG supporter, the most pro EU party in the country) and there are times when the EU annoys me but when I see the carry on in Britain with the little Englanders and their arrogance and wilful disdain of other countries (including some of their own, such as the North and Scotland) it has made me double down my support of the EU, I've gone from being slightly Eurosceptic to an avowed Europhile - and the little Englanders can thank themselves for completely alienating someone whose natural instincts are to vote for Conservative or centre right parties (the outward looking and socially liberal kind, not the over religious and backward kind naturally).

In regards of the passage in your post I have put in bold, I am absolutely with you there.

First Up

captainspeed wrote:

Be in no doubt they'll blame the EU, sure Farage has already started doing so! The right wing press is already starting to blame the EU.

Who cares?

catbear

Same here. I've always thought being in the EU was economically sensible but after all the crap that's come out from Brexiters I've actually felt a strong affinity for the union I hadn't before.

They joined the ECC as a replacement for lost empire, we joined it to get around the British empire. At the EEC table for the first time we were equals with the Brits who had dominated our trade for centuries before.

Thomas__

Maybe some others might have noticed the "Stop Brexit" march" to be held in London on 25th March 2017. Now the slogan changed to "make your voice heard". There seems to be a change in the perception on this matter as well, even if not admitted by the official Initiators of that event. They know that they cannot stop Brexit now, they can only carry on with their efforts to make the politicians give the People a final say on the final Brexit deal (given that there will be one).

More about that in this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/21/anti-brexit-campaigners-face-conundrum-as-date-is-set-for-article-50

The article also has a link at the bottom of the article that leads to the home page of the movement.

djpbarry

Janan Ganesh explains rather eloquently how the UK has been led up the garden path by its politicians:

Over the past year, the terms on which Britain will leave have been talked down on such a fine gradient that even vigilant observers of politics are only semi-conscious of how far the country has been led.

As an opening pitch, voters were told that Britain could retain single market membership without its corollary burdens.
…
When Leavers were disabused of this dream, they spoke of “access” to the market and zero barriers for traded goods.
…
When even this diminished plan ran into trouble, when it became clear that Britain’s desire for bilateral dealmaking power could not be accommodated inside the customs union, Leavers fell back on a formal trade relationship with the EU instead.
…
But now ministers are trying to normalise the idea of total exit without a trade pact. Johnson says this would not be “by any means as apocalyptic as some people like to pretend” (roll up, roll up for a future that stops short of apocalypse) and Davis describes it as “not harmful”. Economists disagree with him but politicians are allowed to question their record of clairvoyance.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/silver-tongued-british-ministers-hide-the-reality-of-brexit-1.3017851

Sam Russell

catbear wrote: »

Same here. I've always thought being in the EU was economically sensible but after all the crap that's come out from Brexiters I've actually felt a strong affinity for the union I hadn't before.

They joined the ECC as a replacement for lost empire, we joined it to get around the British empire. At the EEC table for the first time we were equals with the Brits who had dominated our trade for centuries before.

I think the UK joined the EEC as a desperate attempt to stop the decline of their industrial base. Nearly every aspect of manufacturing was in decline in the early 1960s, and the prognosis was not good. West Germany and France were making inroads and Britain was finding it tough to export, and could not feed itself. Things looked black. Balance of Payments were is dire straights.

Since joining the EEC, things have improved greatly, but manufacturing has still declined but the financial services sector, always strong, has come good. However, without passporting, this may also decline and go the way of manufacturing.

10% tariffs will kill the car industry (all foreign owned and heavily integrated with the EU). Most will probably transfer to Eastern Europe. Financial companies, also, may well emigrate to the EU leaving little behind them.

If the GBP tanks, so will everything else. Corbyn might be their saviour.

First Up

Sam Russell wrote:

Corbyn might be their saviour.

How so?

catbear

Sam Russell wrote: »

10% tariffs will kill the car industry (all foreign owned and heavily integrated with the EU). Most will probably transfer to Eastern Europe. Financial companies, also, may well emigrate to the EU leaving little behind them.

I reckon a car industry will actually stay but it will have a scaled down supply line and probably produce a cheaper quality of car than what's possible in the bigger EU bloc.

I believe Toyota still produces 90s design Corollas in Thailand with a production line they simply moved there.

The UK could end up with secondhand european production lines like the way Romania were producing Renaults and Fiats under a new brand names during the cold war. If I were a German or French car maker I'd make up a new brand called Churchill or Windsor and create models like the Farage, Gove and Johnson.

First Up

catbear wrote:

If I were a German or French car maker I'd make up a new brand called Churchill or Windsor and create models like the Farage, Gove and Johnson.

Without a reverse gear or safety belts I assume.

A Little Pony

Thomas__ wrote: »

Maybe some others might have noticed the "Stop Brexit" march" to be held in London on 25th March 2017. Now the slogan changed to "make your voice heard". There seems to be a change in the perception on this matter as well, even if not admitted by the official Initiators of that event. They know that they cannot stop Brexit now, they can only carry on with their efforts to make the politicians give the People a final say on the final Brexit deal (given that there will be one).

More about that in this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/21/anti-brexit-campaigners-face-conundrum-as-date-is-set-for-article-50

The article also has a link at the bottom of the article that leads to the home page of the movement.

Whistling in the wind, pointless claptrap. It is a done deal now. Time to move on.

Leonard Hofstadter

The car industry might not do too badly depending on the manufacturer, PSA (Peugeot-Citroën, the new owners of Opel /Vauxhall) have said a hard Brexit would mean more locally based cars from local suppliers. What would happen is all models for the UK market would be locally made, rather than one type of car for all of Europe. The UK market is big enough for companies like this to do local cars. I suppose they'd put Irish cars in as well since we're such a small market and obviously right hand drive as well. For companies like Toyota though I can't see them staying long term, in stark contrast to Opel/Vauxhall (and Ireland) they are a very minor player in the UK market, those tarriffs would put them at a massive disadvantage and Toyota already has plants elsewhere in Europe so closing down Burnaston might make their other factories more efficient and allow jobs to be created.

Thomas__

Sam Russell wrote: »

catbear wrote: »

Same here. I've always thought being in the EU was economically sensible but after all the crap that's come out from Brexiters I've actually felt a strong affinity for the union I hadn't before.

They joined the ECC as a replacement for lost empire, we joined it to get around the British empire. At the EEC table for the first time we were equals with the Brits who had dominated our trade for centuries before.

I think the UK joined the EEC as a desperate attempt to stop the decline of their industrial base.  Nearly every aspect of manufacturing was in decline in the early 1960s, and the prognosis was not good.  West Germany and France were making inroads and Britain was finding it tough to export, and could not feed itself.  Things looked black.  Balance of Payments were is dire straights.

Since joining the EEC, things have improved greatly, but manufacturing has still declined but the financial services sector, always strong, has come good.  However, without passporting, this may also decline and go the way of manufacturing.

10% tariffs will kill the car industry (all foreign owned and heavily integrated with the EU).  Most will probably transfer to Eastern Europe.   Financial companies, also, may well emigrate to the EU leaving little behind them.  

If the GBP tanks, so will everything else.  Corbyn might be their saviour.

I agree with many things in your post, except the one last line where you think that Corbyn might be their "saviour". There I have to strongly disagree with that view, cos in my opinion, Corbyn is just the undertaker of the whole British Labour Party. In his true colours, he is just another anti-EU politicians, just that he refuses to admit it, but by his own political record (up to the present), there´s plenty of proof which proves that even without admitting it by himself.

Thomas__

A Little Pony wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

Maybe some others might have noticed the "Stop Brexit" march" to be held in London on 25th March 2017. Now the slogan changed to "make your voice heard". There seems to be a change in the perception on this matter as well, even if not admitted by the official Initiators of that event. They know that they cannot stop Brexit now, they can only carry on with their efforts to make the politicians give the People a final say on the final Brexit deal (given that there will be one).

More about that in this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/21/anti-brexit-campaigners-face-conundrum-as-date-is-set-for-article-50

The article also has a link at the bottom of the article that leads to the home page of the movement.

Whistling in the wind, pointless claptrap. It is a done deal now. Time to move on.

It´s neither "whistling in the wind" nor is it "pointless claptrap", it´s more the desperate effort to stand up against a decision which is by now already unturnable and they will have to go down that road until those who voted in their majority for Brexit will realise that they have been played and that the promised land in post-Brexit years won´t be that of where they all will be better off. That is for sure. Maybe afterwards, they will think again and look to get back to the EU, in case the UK still exists, which I also rather doubt that there will be a UK in ten years to come, in case the Scottish vote for their independence.

I have really respect for the efforts those people are taking to air their contrary position to Brexit even knowning that there is less to no chance to thwart Brexit. They have courage and the right to do so, to protest against what will turn out as being an utter folly.

djpbarry

First Up wrote: »

Without a reverse gear or safety belts I assume.

Oh that’s just scaremongering.

It will have seven seat-belts for every passenger, twelve reverse gears and will be manufactured using revolutionary British materials.

Of course, such materials don’t yet exist, but free from the shackles of EU funding for scientific research and those pesky EU scientists doing all the science, the great British scientists will be free to do proper British science and make the necessary revolutionary discoveries at greater-than light speed (because British physics will no longer be constrained by unnecessary EU bureaucracy).

djpbarry

A Little Pony wrote: »

It is a done deal now.

It is? Because last I heard, article 50 hasn’t even been triggered yet?

Sam Russell

Thomas__ wrote: »

I agree with many things in your post, except the one last line where you think that Corbyn might be their "saviour". There I have to strongly disagree with that view, cos in my opinion, Corbyn is just the undertaker of the whole British Labour Party. In his true colours, he is just another anti-EU politicians, just that he refuses to admit it, but by his own political record (up to the present), there´s plenty of proof which proves that even without admitting it by himself.

I think I was making the point that when things get really black, and the dawn appears so far away, even the lacklustre Corbyn may be a saviour. Well not really but there will come a time when the Tories will be hated by the vast majority as the Nasty Party that they are, and who do you turn to - well - anyone.

I]Not to self - do not try irony as it is always misunderstood![/I

CrabRevolution

djpbarry wrote: »

Oh that’s just scaremongering.

It will have seven seat-belts for every passenger, twelve reverse gears and will be manufactured using revolutionary British materials.

Of course, such materials don’t yet exist, but free from the shackles of EU funding for scientific research and those pesky EU scientists doing all the science, the great British scientists will be free to do proper British science and make the necessary revolutionary discoveries at greater-than light speed (because British physics will no longer be constrained by unnecessary EU bureaucracy).

Don't forget the "mutually beneficial science deal" that will oblige EU scientists to share all their funding, work and research with Britain. Britain is under no obligation to give anything back in return though, as that would be "punishment".

Thomas__

Sam Russell wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

I agree with many things in your post, except the one last line where you think that Corbyn might be their "saviour". There I have to strongly disagree with that view, cos in my opinion, Corbyn is just the undertaker of the whole British Labour Party. In his true colours, he is just another anti-EU politicians, just that he refuses to admit it, but by his own political record (up to the present), there´s plenty of proof which proves that even without admitting it by himself.

I think I was making the point that when things get really black, and the dawn appears so far away, even the lacklustre Corbyn may be a saviour.  Well not really but there will come a time when the Tories will be hated by the vast majority as the Nasty Party that they are, and who do you turn to - well - anyone.

i]Not to self - do not try irony as it is always misunderstood![/i

First he has to survive the time and he´s not getting younger which diminishes the prospect for himself by the prospect of a foretold decade of Tory rule in GB (or what will be left of it by that time). I admit, your irony got lost on me, because I am - in earnest - convinced that Labour is rather finished by his leadership and that Labourits who are not of his far-left inclination might be considering to found a new centre-left Party, like it happened in the Republic of Ireland in 2015.

Sam Russell

With regard to cars - Britain will be forced to use existing plants to manufacture multiple models of quite different types. This will cause huge drops in efficiency putting up costs, and huge difficulties with supply lines. You may find many models from different manufacturers using Ford engines from Dagenham for example.

Toyota, Nissan, and BMW could very easily decide to move. GM Luton already make Nissan, Vauxhall and Renault vans - (same van, different badge). They could also start making Citoen and Peugot marques as well - (same van, different badge).

This might become the way of the car industry there - minor difference between quite different marques.

Of course, those who want Mercs and BMWs will pay the 10% tariff, because they are worth it.

A Little Pony

djpbarry wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

It is a done deal now.

It is? Because last I heard, article 50 hasn’t even been triggered yet?

More chance of Jesus returning than Article 50 not being triggered next week.

djpbarry

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Don't forget the "mutually beneficial science deal" that will oblige EU scientists to share all their funding, work and research with Britain. Britain is under no obligation to give anything back in return though, as that would be "punishment".

No, the EU will be accused of "punishing" the UK when it refuses to agree to said mutually beneficial deal - "Can't they see how mutually this benefits Britain?!?", the Torygraph shall scream.

Thomas__

A Little Pony wrote: »

djpbarry wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

It is a done deal now.

It is? Because last I heard, article 50 hasn’t even been triggered yet?

More chance of Jesus returning than Article 50 not being triggered next week.

I see you look forward to see Article 50 is being triggered and I would like to assume that you´re also looking forward to bear the consequences coming along with it.

First Up

djpbarry wrote:

It will have seven seat-belts for every passenger, twelve reverse gears and will be manufactured using revolutionary British materials.

Oh I forget to mention the enormous rear view mirror.

swampgas

First Up wrote: »

Oh I forget to mention the enormous rear view mirror.

And it will only turn to the right. :pac:

Seriously though, it seems strange to me that the big manufacturers have not been making bigger waves about this. Although I guess they may be saying quite a lot in private - I wonder are they afraid of a consumer backlash if they speak up publicly against Brexit?

Now that Article 50 is almost upon us it will be interesting to see the reaction of the business world, now that things are about to get real.

A Little Pony

Thomas__ wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

djpbarry wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

It is a done deal now.

It is? Because last I heard, article 50 hasn’t even been triggered yet?

More chance of Jesus returning than Article 50 not being triggered next week.

I see you look forward to see Article 50 is being triggered and I would like to assume that you´re also looking forward to bear the consequences coming along with it.

I am all in on Brexit. I can't deny that.

demfad

swampgas wrote: »

And it will only turn to the right. :pac:

Seriously though, it seems strange to me that the big manufacturers have not been making bigger waves about this. Although I guess they may be saying quite a lot in private - I wonder are they afraid of a consumer backlash if they speak up publicly against Brexit?

Now that Article 50 is almost upon us it will be interesting to see the reaction of the business world, now that things are about to get real.

Maybe the manufacturers have been given the Nissan promise? That would give them a few years to move out with less disruption.

djpbarry

A Little Pony wrote: »

More chance of Jesus returning than Article 50 not being triggered next week.

I never said article 50 was not going to be triggered. My point was that negotiations haven't even begun yet, so absolutely nothing is "done" about the deal.

catbear

swampgas wrote: »

Seriously though, it seems strange to me that the big manufacturers have not been making bigger waves about this. Although I guess they may be saying quite a lot in private - I wonder are they afraid of a consumer backlash if they speak up publicly against Brexit?

Didn't Nissan already explain to their workers in Sunderland the potential consequences for voting for Brexit and then see them vote for Brexit.

They've got some sort of transitional deal for May so they've nothing more to say.

swampgas

catbear wrote: »

Didn't Nissan already explain to their workers in Sunderland the potential consequences for voting for Brexit and then see them vote for Brexit.

They've got some sort of transitional deal for May so they've nothing more to say.

Indeed. I suppose it could also be the case that the companies in question can't see any point in raising their objections now, given the political landscape, and are instead busy making plans for a post-Brexit Britain.

First Up

catbear wrote:

Didn't Nissan already explain to their workers in Sunderland the potential consequences for voting for Brexit and then see them vote for Brexit.

They've got some sort of transitional deal for May so they've nothing more to say.

Nissan have a very large gun pointed at the government's head. They announced an expansion of their Sunderland operation (building the Qashqai) on foot of a "comfort" letter from the government (which they have refused to publish.)

The speculation is that the UK government has pledged a generous package including finding a way to compensate Nissan for any additional costs for sales to Europe arising from the Brexit terms. They won't publish it because any such arrangement will have to be devious enough to circumvent World Trade Organisation rules about subsidies.

However Nissan has said that it will only make its final decision when the UK's terms agreed with the EU are known.