Brexit Referendum Superthread

catbear

First Up wrote: »

They announced an expansion of their Sunderland operation (building the Qashqai) on foot of a "comfort" letter from the government (which they have refused to publish.)

Obviously not committing beyond the current models is safe move too.

ambro25

swampgas wrote: »

Seriously though, it seems strange to me that the big manufacturers have not been making bigger waves about this. Although I guess they may be saying quite a lot in private - I wonder are they afraid of a consumer backlash if they speak up publicly against Brexit?

Now that Article 50 is almost upon us it will be interesting to see the reaction of the business world, now that things are about to get real.

Maybe the prospect of China-like employment conditions in the UK over the longer term, and their attenant benefits upon profitability, is enough to offset shorter-term anxiety over substantial loss of access to the single market?

catbear

From New Zealand.

Venison exporters have been hit in the pocket by a drop in the British pound.

In the six months to December 2016, exports to the UK were worth $5.38 million - down from $5.84m in the same period the year before, or a drop of nearly 8 percent.

Deer Industry New Zealand programme manager Innes Moffat said more venison had been exported to Britain but returns were lower due to a drop in the pound following the Brexit referendum. Importers were seeking lower-value meat cuts to offset the lower pound.

The UK was a "small and valuable market", he said.

However the economies of the main export markets - the US, Germany and continental Europe - were doing well, he said.

Mr Moffat said the industry was fortunate not to face trade restrictions into the EU, and was not expecting that to change.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/country/326857/venison-exporters-hit-by-drop-in-british-pound

It was said at a Commonwealth meeting not long after the vote that a weakened pound wouldn't strengthen commonwealth trade as other markets would be sought out to replace the UKs purchasing power. As stated in the last line the UK being outside the EU will make zero difference for that UK-NZ trade.

swampgas

ambro25 wrote: »

Maybe the prospect of China-like employment conditions in the UK over the longer term, and their attenant benefits upon profitability, is enough to offset shorter-term anxiety over substantial loss of access to the single market?

That's an angle I hadn't considered ... but I'd imagine that would be quite a risky long term gamble. I reckon there's little downside for them taking a wait-and-see approach for now.

Sam Russell

Reports in the UK news saying that a 'surprise' rise in inflation is reported at 2.3%. Surprise - they have devalued the GBP by 10% so how can a rise in inflation be a surprise?

Peregrinus

swampgas wrote: »

And it will only turn to the right. :pac:

Seriously though, it seems strange to me that the big manufacturers have not been making bigger waves about this. Although I guess they may be saying quite a lot in private - I wonder are they afraid of a consumer backlash if they speak up publicly against Brexit?

The time for objecting to Brexit is past. What would be the point now?

swampgas wrote: »

Now that Article 50 is almost upon us it will be interesting to see the reaction of the business world, now that things are about to get real.

I suspect you won't see the reaction of the business world; Tory ministers will, behind closed doors. There'll be huge pressure to make the Brexit terms as business-friendly as possible (read "We want the freest possible trade with the EU, and make whatever concessions you need to in order to secure that") but that pressure will mostly not be brought to bear through the media.

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

With regard to cars - Britain will be forced to use existing plants to manufacture multiple models of quite different types. This will cause huge drops in efficiency putting up costs, and huge difficulties with supply lines. You may find many models from different manufacturers using Ford engines from Dagenham for example.

Toyota, Nissan, and BMW could very easily decide to move. GM Luton already make Nissan, Vauxhall and Renault vans - (same van, different badge). They could also start making Citoen and Peugot marques as well - (same van, different badge).

This might become the way of the car industry there - minor difference between quite different marques.

Of course, those who want Mercs and BMWs will pay the 10% tariff, because they are worth it.

Regarding the car industry, could you see a situation where manufacturers will build to one set of standards regardless of where it is made? It seems easier to build cars to the highest standard required and then pass on the cost to all the cars sold, regardless if the area where you are selling the vehicle actually needs to adhere to those standards.

Now the UK could have their own standards that differ from the EU, but unless it is stricter (more cost) you would think that the models they manufacture would be restricted to one domestic market only and there is no chance of future growth if they restrict themselves to a market of only 60 million instead of 400 million.

I would think that the manufacturers will still use European standards when building vehicles if there is the potential to sell them in the EU, even if you have a case where the UK relaxes certain regulations in the industry. Seems a whole lot of action for very little movement if that would be the case.

Lemming

Peregrinus wrote: »

The time for objecting to Brexit is past. What would be the point now?

Brexit has not happened, so the "the time for objecting" is not past. I find this apathetic, fatalistic view very 'convenient' for those cheer-leading leaving the EU. The time wasn't past a decade or two ago, yet now has despite not coming to pass? Jog on.

Every day, another chunk of reality lands on the Brexiteers fantasy/lies, and every day they get more and more shrill and obnoxious because the fear that they wont leave increases as yet more people begin to see what a very bad idea it is and change their minds. In any case, what version of Brexit did the electorate vote for? Please enlighten us if you wouldn't mind. And before you begin, there was no mention of what sort of Brexit was on the cards on the voting form. I know because I was there.

First Up

Lemming wrote: »

Brexit has not happened, so the "the time for objecting" is not past. I find this apathetic, fatalistic view very 'convenient' for those cheer-leading leaving the EU. The time wasn't past a decade or two ago, yet now has despite not coming to pass? Jog on.

The Brexit vote has happened and its unlikely that pressure from industry would be enough to generate a re-think on that. But industry can certainly play an influential role in talking sense to the Brexit negotiators.

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

Regarding the car industry, could you see a situation where manufacturers will build to one set of standards regardless of where it is made? It seems easier to build cars to the highest standard required and then pass on the cost to all the cars sold, regardless if the area where you are selling the vehicle actually needs to adhere to those standards.

Now the UK could have their own standards that differ from the EU, but unless it is stricter (more cost) you would think that the models they manufacture would be restricted to one domestic market only and there is no chance of future growth if they restrict themselves to a market of only 60 million instead of 400 million.

I would think that the manufacturers will still use European standards when building vehicles if there is the potential to sell them in the EU, even if you have a case where the UK relaxes certain regulations in the industry. Seems a whole lot of action for very little movement if that would be the case.

There is no way cars made in the UK will be made to a different standard from those for sale outside the UK.

However, cars are made in 'modules' which may be made elsewhere in the EU. Say a gearbox is made in Belgium and the engine is made in Spain. If they are subject to 10% tariff, then that affects the final price of the car. If the car is subject to 10% tariff then the car is likely to be less attractive to buyers in the UK.

What I see happening is that the UK will have a lesser selection of cars for sale at the lower end of the market and higher prices at the higher end. Good news for Jaguar and Land Rover, not so good for Ford and Nissan. I would think BMW Mini migrating out of the UK, with new models being built in Eastern Europe.

Look what happened to our motor industry (Ford, Dunlop) - it all went away as soon as protection went away despit Ford being in Cork since 1917. In 1972, Escorts were exported to the UK, but in 1984, the Cork plant closed.

I would think that within 15 years, the UK car industry will be domestic only if there is no access to the single market, and sooner if there is no customs union.

Thomas__

Lemming wrote: »

Peregrinus wrote: »

The time for objecting to Brexit is past.  What would be the point now?

Brexit has not happened, so the "the time for objecting" is not past. I find this apathetic, fatalistic view very 'convenient' for those cheer-leading leaving the EU. The time wasn't past a decade or two ago, yet now has despite not coming to pass? Jog on.

Every day, another chunk of reality lands on the Brexiteers fantasy/lies, and every day they get more and more shrill and obnoxious because the fear that they wont leave increases as yet more people begin to see what a very bad idea it is and change their minds. In any case, what version of Brexit did the electorate vote for? Please enlighten us if you wouldn't mind. And before you begin, there was no mention of what sort of Brexit was on the cards on the voting form. I know because I was there.

Like it or not, but the legislation for that is completed and there´s nothing that will stop the PM from sending the divorce letter to Brussels to arrive on 29 March 2017 to trigger Article 50. I don´t like to see that either, but it is all on the way and now the Brits will have to learn it the hard way what folly they have done to themselves by voting for the charlatans and their lies.

djpbarry

Sam Russell wrote: »

Reports in the UK news saying that a 'surprise' rise in inflation is reported at 2.3%. Surprise - they have devalued the GBP by 10% so how can a rise in inflation be a surprise?

I think the surprise is in the extent of the rise – it’s up 0.5% in a month, which is a big leap and higher than had been expected. Although, what matters is the overall trend, rather than a single data point.

I can’t help but be somewhat fascinated (and slightly amused) at the comments that appear on the BBC website below the articles that report the not-so-good economic news. A common retort to the reported rising inflation is that the UK saw double-digit inflation in the 70s and 80s, a time when things were so bad in the UK that a loan from the IMF was requested.

So, apparently, as long as things don’t get so bad that IMF intervention is required, then everything is fine.

Thomas__

djpbarry wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

Reports in the UK news saying that a 'surprise' rise in inflation is reported at 2.3%.  Surprise - they have devalued the GBP by 10% so how can a rise in inflation be a surprise?

I think the surprise is in the extent of the rise – it’s up 0.5% in a month, which is a big leap and higher than had been expected. Although, what matters is the overall trend, rather than a single data point.

I can’t help but be somewhat fascinated (and slightly amused) at the comments that appear on the BBC website below the articles that report the not-so-good economic news. A common retort to the reported rising inflation is that the UK saw double-digit inflation in the 70s and 80s, a time when things were so bad in the UK that a loan from the IMF was requested.

So, apparently, as long as things don’t get so bad that IMF intervention is required, then everything is fine.

The BBC comments are in some majority written by Brexiteers, Tories and other far-right to right-wing posters. I have observed that for a certain period of time and I have given up reading them some months ago. Similar comments are also written on other news pages in their comment facilities, as far as the article is open for comment. Opposing writers get the usual insults and abuse from the aforementioned. The worst on the BBC pages is, that once they have opened some article for commenting, the comments are flowing in that fast that the moderation team there appears to be overwhelmed and can´t act that quick to remove or hide comments that contravene the house rules. I guess, that from my former experiences on the then BBC MBs (of which only two are left, the many of them closed down years ago), there might be even too less moderators working these days. But as you said, sometimes the silly comments by some commentators have given me some good laughs.

murphaph

I wonder what effects Ireland will feel, given many RHD models are only produced in or for the UK (Ireland is a sideshow). I wonder will Ireland also see a reduced offering as car makers who see tariffs as such a barrier to trade in the UK market that they don't bother, also see Ireland as such a tiny market that they simply cut the RHD version of the given model altogether.

catbear

murphaph wrote: »

I wonder what effects Ireland will feel, given many RHD models are only produced in or for the UK (Ireland is a sideshow). I wonder will Ireland also see a reduced offering as car makers who see tariffs as such a barrier to trade in the UK market that they don't bother, also see Ireland as such a tiny market that they simply cut the RHD version of the given model altogether.

I think I read before that you can pretty much order your RHD directly from European cars makers, go to the factory when it's ready and drive it home.

For the rest of us who can't afford such a custom option there's the New Zealand option of relying on Japanese imports, both new and old. I'm sure Ireland, Cyprus and Malta could be given a RHD import tax break as it doesn't impact the general EU market.

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

There is no way cars made in the UK will be made to a different standard from those for sale outside the UK.

However, cars are made in 'modules' which may be made elsewhere in the EU. Say a gearbox is made in Belgium and the engine is made in Spain. If they are subject to 10% tariff, then that affects the final price of the car. If the car is subject to 10% tariff then the car is likely to be less attractive to buyers in the UK.

What I see happening is that the UK will have a lesser selection of cars for sale at the lower end of the market and higher prices at the higher end. Good news for Jaguar and Land Rover, not so good for Ford and Nissan. I would think BMW Mini migrating out of the UK, with new models being built in Eastern Europe.

Look what happened to our motor industry (Ford, Dunlop) - it all went away as soon as protection went away despit Ford being in Cork since 1917. In 1972, Escorts were exported to the UK, but in 1984, the Cork plant closed.

I would think that within 15 years, the UK car industry will be domestic only if there is no access to the single market, and sooner if there is no customs union.

I see, it will come down the the compromises the UK want to make to ensure further production locally. If there aren't compromises then the users in the UK will suffer as they will have either higher prices, or less choice.

murphaph wrote: »

I wonder what effects Ireland will feel, given many RHD models are only produced in or for the UK (Ireland is a sideshow). I wonder will Ireland also see a reduced offering as car makers who see tariffs as such a barrier to trade in the UK market that they don't bother, also see Ireland as such a tiny market that they simply cut the RHD version of the given model altogether.

Luckily we aren't the only RHD country in the world, there is India and Indonesia which account for a big market of cars. I would hope the production of models have been streamlined in such a way that it is just a mirroring of the components to move from LHD to RHD production. If not, I guess we have to start preparing to drive on the right?:(

Sam Russell

murphaph wrote: »

I wonder what effects Ireland will feel, given many RHD models are only produced in or for the UK (Ireland is a sideshow). I wonder will Ireland also see a reduced offering as car makers who see tariffs as such a barrier to trade in the UK market that they don't bother, also see Ireland as such a tiny market that they simply cut the RHD version of the given model altogether.

We are not the only RHD market. Cyprus, Malta, SA, Australia, NZ, Japan, etc.

But we could get some UK manufactured poverty spec cars at inflated prices, but they are likely not to sell well.

Making RHD models is not a huge difference and most car models are designed to be manufactured for both configurations, and few parts are different, beside during manufacture, it is easy to change the handing of most parts. We already gets models with the only key locking door is on the left hand side, and MINI countryman had the two door side on the drivers side here, but on the passenger side for the RHD market.

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

Luckily we aren't the only RHD country in the world, there is India and Indonesia which account for a big market of cars. I would hope the production of models have been streamlined in such a way that it is just a mirroring of the components to move from LHD to RHD production. If not, I guess we have to start preparing to drive on the right?:(

Driving on the RHS of the road would have been a good choice in 1973 but we have now built a lot of motorways and reversing the side of the road is very tricky since junction design is very much handed - acceleration times are not the same as deceleration times.

We did not do a great job of bringing in Km/h, did we? We have a lot of RHD cars, trucks, buses, etc.

murphaph

Yeah I just wonder will say Renault or Fiat bother offering a RHD version, just for the small Irish/Cypriot/Maltese markets if it turns out that the tariffs essentially kill off the UK demand for the low end models. Maybe RHD production is not such a big deal these days but there are still differences that may add up to make low end models uneconomic to produce if the market is depressed post Brexit.

First Up

Sam Russell wrote: »

We did not do a great job of bringing in Km/h, did we? We have a lot of RHD cars, trucks, buses, etc.

What did we do wrong there?

I know Sweden switched sides many years ago and it went OK I think but given Irish driving standards it would be a bit of a nightmare.

catbear

Sam Russell wrote: »

We did not do a great job of bringing in Km/h, did we? We have a lot of RHD cars, trucks, buses, etc.

I was away for the six months during which Ireland switched and when I came back to Km there wasn't a word about it so I presumed it went seemlessly. Obviously the Joe Duffy brigade probably got a few shows out of it but when I asked about it I was told it was easy, just happened overnight.

I suppose there's always some people who find the simplest change problematic.

catbear

First Up wrote: »

What did we do wrong there?

I know Sweden switched sides many years ago and it went OK I think but given Irish driving standards it would be a bit of a nightmare.

I think they did it in either the 50s or 60s when there was a lot less traffic and no motorways.
Burma changed in the 90s I think which was ridiculous as India and Thailand are both RHD.

Nody

catbear wrote: »

I think they did it in either the 50s or 60s when there was a lot less traffic and no motorways.
Burma changed in the 90s I think which was ridiculous as India and Thailand are both RHD.

3rd Sep. 1967 and they had 1.5 million cars on the ground and yes, there were motorways.

catbear

Nody wrote: »

3rd Sep. 1967 and they had 1.5 million cars on the ground and yes, there were motorways.

Interesting. Certainly gives food for thought although it probably would make more sense in a united Ireland, crossing from one side to the other on a land border would be a head wreck. Seen it on the Thai Cambodian border.

Anyway those hard brexit fans will probably have this sticker in the future.

Robbed image from YLYL thread.

BoatMad

We did not do a great job of bringing in Km/h, did we? We have a lot of RHD cars, trucks, buses, etc.

huh , it was seamless, very little issue

First Up

catbear wrote:

Interesting. Certainly gives food for thought although it probably would make more sense in a united Ireland, crossing from one side to the other on a land border would be a head wreck. Seen it on the Thai Cambodian border.

Same at Zambia/Angola border but they mostly drive in the middle of the road anyway.

masculinist

They should change to the other side overnight or else stop punishing us when we import high spec models from Japan.

The Japanese version of the NCT is so stringent that they often sell off the car when its 3 years old yet it would pass everything with flying colors here. However that doesnt stop Irish insurance companies from using 'difference' as an excuse to be prejudiced against a smart customer who they penalise for being smart. And dont get me started about VRT. German cars are known not only for quality but for cheapness all over Europe. As a result I know people from Poland , Prague and Dubrovnik who bought their cars in Germany and drove them home to their respective cities. We should change to the other side of the road, give our consumers a chance to buy German cars direct and VRT can take the hit of any cost increases as its heavy enough as it is.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Guys, can ye please take the subject of which side of the road to drive on to a more appropriate forum? Thanks.

Foghladh

catbear wrote: »

Lemming wrote: »

Not any more they don't. The UK's economic standing has alreay slid to somewhere around 7th/8th after the kicking that GBP has taken thus far.

By GDP/PPP the UK is 9th.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

Sterling has been given a downgrade warning as a global reserve currency because of Brexit, so another rung down the ladder for the nation awaits.

That's not exactly comparing like for like though. By a GDP PPP comparison there is very little movement. In fact the UK was ranked 10th in 2014. Using nominal GDP, there may be some jockeying between the UK and France but nobody has presented anything other than hearsay to indicate that the British economy has shrunk by 30%. This is what would have happened for the UK to have slipped to 8th position globally

Bit cynical

Lemming wrote: »

Brexit has not happened, so the "the time for objecting" is not past. I find this apathetic, fatalistic view very 'convenient' for those cheer-leading leaving the EU. The time wasn't past a decade or two ago, yet now has despite not coming to pass? Jog on.

Every day, another chunk of reality lands on the Brexiteers fantasy/lies, and every day they get more and more shrill and obnoxious because the fear that they wont leave increases as yet more people begin to see what a very bad idea it is and change their minds. In any case, what version of Brexit did the electorate vote for? Please enlighten us if you wouldn't mind. And before you begin, there was no mention of what sort of Brexit was on the cards on the voting form. I know because I was there.

Brexit is going to happen and you need to just accept that fact. There was never a possibility after the referendum result that brexit was not going to happen. All objections to brexit after 23 June 2016 have had no effect in overturning the result nor will they in the future.