Brexit Referendum Superthread

whatstherush

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

If I'm wrong.... I look forward to and welcome the EU's comprehensive reform plan you will lay out for us to peruse..

In your own time

Caught out with your bull****, so you have to move the goal posts. He didn't say the EU would never reform, end of, whether I have ideas for reform is neither here nor there.

Here's a simple question for you, if the EU is so bad, why do you have to lie about it?

BoJack Horseman

whatstherush wrote: »

He didn't say the EU would never reform?

No.... no he didn't (which is a strange fig-leaf to cling onto!)
He just said that there would be no further negotiations with the UK post-vote.

This is in contradiction with what the UK PM has been saying for much of the campaign.

So, one of them has their pants on fire.

I assume It's Cameron, as Junker is infallible.

130Kph

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Your glorious president & defender of the faith has already scuppered that.
...
The EU is unequivocal, she is not for reforming.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Our president was quite unequivocal.
Britain is not getting any more, despite 'Dave' promising otherwise.

....

Juncker was simply saying if the country votes to leave –there will be no further renegotiation to entice it to change its mind.

The UK will not be able to return to the negotiating table if it votes to leave the European Union, one of the EU's top officials has said.
Speaking on the eve of the referendum, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said the outcome would be final and "out is out".

Which is the same thing as Cameron said yesterday. Your second quote (of Cameron) had to do with a remain result, which Juncker was not talking about in your first quote (as confirmed by here).

That’s not the same thing as him saying the EU will never reform or change its rules again at some point in the future.

Nate--IRL--

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

No.... no he didn't (which is a strange fig-leaf to cling onto!)
He just said that there would be no further negotiations with the UK post-vote.

This is in contradiction with what the UK PM has been saying for much of the campaign.

So, one of them has their pants on fire.

I assume It's Cameron, as Junker is infallible.

Why on earth would Cameron think he'd be able to renegotiate the February Deal?

Have you a source where he said he could? Just Curious.

Nate

Talk of renegotiating the British deal is way too premature.

Before they get a new deal, lets see if this one is even legal. Lets see if it requires an Irish referendum!

Calina

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

If I'm wrong.... I look forward to and welcome the EU's comprehensive reform plan you will lay out for us to peruse..

In your own time

The EU and its structures have evolved considerably over time. You'll have to face the reality that that is an on-going process and not bookended by the words "start of reform" and "end of reform".

In the meantime, there is an argument amongst some of the Brexit campaigners that the UK could vote out, there might be more like, change and reform or something and then maybe the UK will stay in after all. It's like thinking you could be at a pub, tell your friend you're going home, flounce out and then expect someone to run down the road to beg you to stay. It does not work like that in the real world.

This is unlikely. It's not like a treaty this time, it's specifically do they stay or do they go. It's not a case of negotiating a few things that the original negotiations might have done better.

Jelle1880

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Talk of renegotiating the British deal is way too premature.

Before they get a new deal, lets see if this one is even legal. Lets see if it requires an Irish referendum!

The way I understand it there isn't even really a deal, just some verbal agreements.

And Juncker said 'Out is out', there will be no renegotiation.

Calina

Calina wrote: »

It's like thinking you could be at a pub, tell your friend you're going home, flounce out and then expect someone to run down the road to beg you to stay. It does not work like that in the real world.

Why oh why oh why do people insist on resorting to ridiculous analogies over something so utterly cognizable as a referendum on EU membership?

What exactly is so difficult to understand about a referendum, that some people have to resort to, frankly, stupid analogies about people "flouncing" out of pubs? It's one of the most ridiculous comments I've read on this thread. And let me tell you, there's plenty of competition for that prize.

That aside, Alex Barker, the Brussels bureau chief for the Financial Times, has an article on page 2 of today's edition entitled, 'Why Out is not necessarily Out in the eyes of EU officials'. Barker cites a Foreign Minister and others who insist that there would be flexibility in avoiding Brexit, and a senior diplomat who insists, "we would be happy for find a way out of the corner that the British have led us into".

Now, I happen to agree that there are also strong arguments to the latter: a "hard exit" following Brexit may, in theory, immunise the EU against further haemorrage.

But to reduce the thing down to some braindead analogy about flouncing out of a pub does nothing for an informed debate, but is indicative of the coarse, feeble-minded discussion that characterises both sides of the Brexit 'debate'.

Jelle1880

Jelle1880 wrote: »

The way I understand it there isn't even really a deal, just some verbal agreements.

That's true, most of Cameron's agreement is not legally enforceable. Other parts are probably not even legal.

Nevertheless, we can't ignore their relevance to future politics: the 'deal' indicates an even more Eurosceptic, anti-worker, anti-immigrant course that Britain is likely to pursue in future, which is why I am worried about Remain winning the referendum today.

Jelle1880

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

That's true, most of Cameron's agreement is not legally enforceable. Other parts are probably not even legal.

Nevertheless, we can't ignore their relevance to future politics: the 'deal' indicates an even more Eurosceptic, anti-worker, anti-immigrant course that Britain is likely to pursue in future, which is why I am worried about Remain winning the referendum today.

Can you explain ?

Do you mean that if they choose to Remain they will choose to become more anti-immigrant, anti-worker,... ?

I fear that for the UK that course will happen regardless Leave or Remain wins.

Jelle1880

Jelle1880 wrote: »

Can you explain ?

Do you mean that if they choose to Remain they will choose to become more anti-immigrant, anti-worker,... ?

I fear that for the UK that course will happen regardless Leave or Remain wins.

I'm not immediately concerned about what happens in the UK. I'm talking about their politicians' future attitudes to European integration.

Britain will remain in the EU after today's referendum, but grudgingly so. Even many eurosceptics (well educated, ABC professionals) are only voting grudgingly to remain. They don't love the EU, but on balance, they're satisfied to 'put up with' this much EU.

If you combine the Leave voters, and those who are grudgingly voting to remain, I suspect a significant majority of UK voters want no further EU integration. They want to see provisions of Cameron's Little England 'agreement' incorporated into EU treaties.

This is terrible for the EU, and for anybody who wants a reformed, integrated Europe with increased democratic reform of its institutions.

Remain means: Remain with political inertia, Remain with the democratic deficit, Remain with a two-speed Europe, and Retract from worker's freedoms.

Bob24

Any bets on the result?

I'd go for 56% remain - 44% leave.

Alun

Someone in the UK on another thread reporting about non-officials waiting outside polling stations asking people for polling cards. Sounds well dodgy to me ...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100131332&postcount=90

Bob24

Alun wrote: »

Someone in the UK on another thread reporting about non-officials waiting outside polling stations asking people for polling cards. Sounds well dodgy to me ...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100131332&postcount=90

Given what is at stake and how heated the campaign was, both sides could be playing dirty tricks.

The UK would probably never have accepted it, but foreign observers not associated to any organisation/government which expressed an opinion on the vote probably have been a bad thing.

4068ac1elhodqr

#usepens was trending the other day, imagine it's a long drive in the back of the van with all those 2B or 4B soft pencil marked ballots to the main counting shops...

Rightwing

Bob24 wrote: »

Any bets on the result?

I'd go for 56% remain - 44% leave.

It won't be that high, but the markets have priced in a Remain vote. A surprise vote, and we will see the greatest volatility in FX currency in decades.

Bob24

Rightwing wrote: »

It won't be that high, but the markets have priced in a Remain vote. A surprise vote, and we will see the greatest volatility in FX currency in decades.

My rational for the large enough divide is that I think some leavers will get cold feet (whereas remainers won't) and whoever is still undecided is likely to go the the "safe" choice: maintaining the status quo.

anyway ... well shall see.

A Dub in Glasgo

Just in from voting and the turnout tally for our area upto 5pm was 29.8% (10 hours of voting). Seemed busy when we were there so probably the traditional after work/dinner turnout will be better

Lemming

Voted to remain not long ago along with my partner; polling station was quiet when we walked in, but there was a steady trickle of people turning up behind us so could well be a post-dinner rush. No idea of voter turnout for the area.

gandalf

I'm taking a punt of 55% remain 45% leave and then afterwards the total disintegration of the Tories in a bitter round of infighting.

theteal

Alun wrote: »

Someone in the UK on another thread reporting about non-officials waiting outside polling stations asking people for polling cards. Sounds well dodgy to me ...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100131332&postcount=90

It says on the polling card that you don't need the polling card with you to vote. They didn't check ours this morning, just asked for name and address.

Bob24

gandalf wrote: »

afterwards the total disintegration of the Tories in a bitter round of infighting.

I'd add Labour to your list. Someone needs to address the decent chunk of their electorate which will have voted leave, and if it doesn't come from a spin-off organised by eurosceptic Labour politicians, many working class voters will keep leaking to UKIP.

Its dead Jim

If it is remain we won't hear the end of it. Jo Cox being murdered and that the result will be rigged anyway are the most popular theories I saw. It's a shame the pound is going up, I wanted to make a large amazon order.

pablomakaveli

Voted remain earlier. Loads of people I know voting leave though. I live in a Tory area so not that surprising really.

Jimoslimos

Just back from voting, and yes I did it with a pencil! The paranoia from the Brexit camp over this is par for the course, along with pretty much all of their fear-mongering during the campaign.

Bob24 wrote: »

I'd add Labour to your list. Someone needs to address the decent chunk of their electorate which will have voted leave, and if it doesn't come from a spin-off organised by eurosceptic Labour politicians, many working class voters will keep leaking to UKIP.

If Brexit happens then there won't need to be a eurosceptic wing to either Labour or the Tories (and arguably no need whatsoever for UKIP - though I'm sure <insert ethnic group> will be next in their sights).

The Conservatives under Gove or similar would be much easier for Labour to galvanise against than Cameron.

bpb101

Anybody doing an all nigher here and watching the votes come in live?

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

Voted to remain not long ago along with my partner; polling station was quiet when we walked in, but there was a steady trickle of people turning up behind us so could well be a post-dinner rush. No idea of voter turnout for the area.

I went this morning. Couldn't be arsed queuing and the polling station is basically beside my flat.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I went this morning. Couldn't be arsed queuing and the polling station is basically beside my flat.

Lets hope the result is more than a difference of one then.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

Lets hope the result is more than a difference of one then.

Oh, I did vote. I went early to avoid queuing and to get it out of the way in case something came up at work.

Bob24

Jimoslimos wrote: »

If Brexit happens then there won't need to be a eurosceptic wing to either Labour or the Tories (and arguably no need whatsoever for UKIP - though I'm sure <insert ethnic group> will be next in their sights).

The Conservatives under Gove or similar would be much easier for Labour to galvanise against than Cameron.

Well in my comment I was obviously assuming remain would win.

If leave was to win I think it would also blow-up Labour and the Tories though. Each of them would have a group of eurosceptics working on implementing Brexit and a group of europhiles doing all they can to prevent if from happening.