Brexit Referendum Superthread

Lemming

ambro25 wrote: »

In other news, Fox's utterances of "shared values" whilst visiting Duterte are beyond contemptible. When to expect him patting Putin's back about "shared values", one wonders?

That comment by Fox was absolutely shameful, not to mention only underscores just how absolutely f*cking desperate they're getting, having had Mayhem rebuffed in humiliating fashion by India only a couple of months ago and has now despatched the Hammond to try again which wont have gone unnoticed by India.

I'm waiting for the breaking news that the merry Brexiteers have sought to have Pinochet's bones exhumed to try and strike a deal as they'll soon be running out of strong-men to try and cosy up to :pac:

catbear

If UK recognises Catalan then we can recognise Scotland as independent!

Lemming

wes wrote: »

Understandable, when the message is, we want your money, but your people aren't welcome.

Also not helped by the fact that it was May as home secretary that put that message out in the first place. Oh how those chickens have come home ...

Sam Russell

Lemming wrote: »

Also not helped by the fact that it was May as home secretary that put that message out in the first place. Oh how those chickens have come home ...

It was May's under-performance as Home Secretary that has her citing immigration as a main agenda for Brexit. She failed dismally to control immigration, even the non-EU stuff that was within the UK control.

After Bexit, immigration will continue as before because it is not a problem - those who get there from the EU are invited in. (Well those that are legal anyway).

An Ciarraioch

Sam Russell wrote: »

It was May's under-performance as Home Secretary that has her citing immigration as a main agenda for Brexit. She failed dismally to control immigration, even the non-EU stuff that was within the UK control.

After Bexit, immigration will continue as before because it is not a problem - those who get there from the EU are invited in. (Well those that are legal anyway).

Today, an extension of free movement, tomorrow remaining in the EEA?

https://mobile.twitter.com/hendopolis/status/849708952854167553/photo/1

Zubeneschamali

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Today, an extension of free movement, tomorrow remaining in the EEA?

EU for slow learners.

Leonard Hofstadter

Lemming wrote: »

That comment by Fox was absolutely shameful, not to mention only underscores just how absolutely f*cking desperate they're getting, having had Mayhem rebuffed in humiliating fashion by India only a couple of months ago and has now despatched the Hammond to try again which wont have gone unnoticed by India.

I'm waiting for the breaking news that the merry Brexiteers have sought to have Pinochet's bones exhumed to try and strike a deal as they'll soon be running out of strong-men to try and cosy up to :pac:

Well let's not forget that this is the man who said that the UK had nothing to be ashamed of when it comes to its 20th century history! For someone who is meant to be a doctor (and therefore ought to be highly intelligent), he is either stunningly incompetent, not very intelligent (to put it mildly), or a combination of the two.

Lemming

captainspeed wrote: »

Well let's not forget that this is the man who said that the UK had nothing to be ashamed of when it comes to its 20th century history! For someone who is meant to be a doctor (and therefore ought to be highly intelligent), he is either stunningly incompetent, not very intelligent (to put it mildly), or a combination of the two.

Or option three: deluded.

When phrases like "Empire 2.0" are being coined by the wee man, what other logical conclusion can one come to?

catbear

captainspeed wrote: »

Lemming wrote: »

That comment by Fox was absolutely shameful, not to mention only underscores just how absolutely f*cking desperate they're getting, having had Mayhem rebuffed in humiliating fashion by India only a couple of months ago and has now despatched the Hammond to try again which wont have gone unnoticed by India.

I'm waiting for the breaking news that the merry Brexiteers have sought to have Pinochet's bones exhumed to try and strike a deal as they'll soon be running out of strong-men to try and cosy up to :pac:

Well let's not forget that this is the man who said that the UK had nothing to be ashamed of when it comes to its 20th century history! For someone who is meant to be a doctor (and therefore ought to be highly intelligent), he is either stunningly incompetent, not very intelligent (to put it mildly), or a combination of the two.

In the 60s having the equivalent of two honours was enough to get you into med school whereas in the 90s it was a minimal requirement!

Peregrinus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In terms of Gib, perhaps it could declare independence, and negotiate a similar arrangement to those Andorra, Monaco and San Marino have with the EU?

I think the expectation is that the British will seek to negotiate a close association for Gibraltar with the EU. The draft EU negotiating position that says that the terms that apply to Gibraltar need to be agreed by Spain and the UK more or less assumes that there will be special terms for Gibraltar.

The UK will have wanted to do this fairly quietly, and most likely a bit down the line, when negotiations are far advanced. The obvious political problem for the UK is negotiating special association for Gibraltar while telling the Scots that its not possible to negotiate special association for Scotland, so they would have preferred that this would not attract more attention than it has to.

If the UK had a titter of wit they would make no comment about this element of the EU position statement. It's blindingly obvious, and entirely reasonable, that any special terms for Gibraltar will need a Spanish OK; the Spaniards are the ones who are going to be implementing them on the EU side, so there has to be Spanish buy-in. Indeed, making it primarily a bilateral UK/Spain negotiation separates it out from the main UK/EU negotiations, and probably helps to put a bit more blue water between the Gibraltar question and the Scotland question.

So probably the UK government would have said nothing, if you didn't have the Sun and the Telegraph and Michael Howard getting all hairy-chested and banging on about sovereignty and the Falklands spirit. To be honest, I don't think they have done Gibraltar any favours.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think the expectation is that the British will seek to negotiate a close association for Gibraltar with the EU. The draft EU negotiating position that says that the terms that apply to Gibraltar need to be agreed by Spain and the UK more or less assumes that there will be special terms for Gibraltar.

The UK will have wanted to do this fairly quietly, and most likely a bit down the line, when negotiations are far advanced. The obvious political problem for the UK is negotiating special association for Gibraltar while telling the Scots that its not possible to negotiate special association for Scotland, so they would have preferred that this would not attract more attention than it has to.

If the UK had a titter of wit they would make no comment about this element of the EU position statement. It's blindingly obvious, and entirely reasonable, that any special terms for Gibraltar will need a Spanish OK; the Spaniards are the ones who are going to be implementing them on the EU side, so there has to be Spanish buy-in. Indeed, making it primarily a bilateral UK/Spain negotiation separates it out from the main UK/EU negotiations, and probably helps to put a bit more blue water between the Gibraltar question and the Scotland question.

So probably the UK government would have said nothing, if you didn't have the Sun and the Telegraph and Michael Howard getting all hairy-chested and banging on about sovereignty and the Falklands spirit. To be honest, I don't think they have done Gibraltar any favours.

Every EU country with an external border has some local issues to address and it is obviously more sensible to let the parties work out something between them, while ensuring that EU integrity is maintained. That's all the EU's document was saying about Gibraltar but the Brits are so jittery and jingoistic that it got its knickers in a twist.

The worry is that if they can be so easily alarmed and inflamed by a ball of smoke like this, how will they react when something really serious comes up.

A Little Pony

steddyeddy wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Partition was formed because of the religious reality in India.

Which partition in India? They tried it twice and it only stuck the second time. The partition of India made no sense along sectarian lines.

Go look at the history between Hindus and Muslims. Partition was common sense.

Jim2007

A Little Pony wrote: »

steddyeddy wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Partition was formed because of the religious reality in India.

Which partition in India? They tried it twice and it only stuck the second time. The partition of India made no sense along sectarian lines.

Go look at the history between Hindus and Muslims. Partition was common sense.

For a quick British exit, which is what Mountbatten wanted.  But for the countless people that lost their lives, had their homes uprooted etc.. it was anything but.

ancapailldorcha

A Little Pony wrote: »

Go look at the history between Hindus and Muslims. Partition was common sense.

Jim2007 wrote: »

For a quick British exit, which is what Mountbatten wanted.  But for the countless people that lost their lives, had their homes uprooted etc.. it was anything but.

Back on topic please.

Fred_Johnson

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Analysts still conclude that the UK could cripple Spain militarily despite the decline in its naval strength in recent years, but hard to see the rest of the EU standing by to let Spain fight a war against the UK surely.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/02/britains-navy-far-weaker-falklands-could-still-cripple-spain/

British people of a Tory / UKIP disposition love a bit of jingoistic posturing...and "sizing up".

We've really come full circle. In the past the British used to patronise us. Now we are the grown up nation and they are the infantile "mine are bigger than yours" crowd.

catbear

One thing blowing Gibraltar out of all proportion does is give the UK government an imaginary red line which they can reignite to distract from compromising elsewhere.

I expect NI may be brought into play in a similar manner and in that event the last of soft support remaining for the UK in Ireland will be blown away.

wes

catbear wrote: »

I expect NI may be brought into play in a similar manner and in that event the last of soft support remaining for the UK in Ireland will be blown away.

NI going South would be just as much a headache for them, maybe even more so, as they run the place.

murphaph

NI will be handled with kid gloves by all sides. Gibraltar is a different story.

Sam Russell

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Analysts still conclude that the UK could cripple Spain militarily despite the decline in its naval strength in recent years, but hard to see the rest of the EU standing by to let Spain fight a war against the UK surely.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/02/britains-navy-far-weaker-falklands-could-still-cripple-spain/

Michael Howard was a failed leader of the Tories and is a fool if he thinks that the UK would benefit from a war with Spain. He is not talking about a rock nearly out of range of the Argentina Air Force, but a rock connected to Spain. The Spannish could use the tactic employed by Russia in the Crimea, just get loads of people (soldiers) to invade as tourists in sufficient number to overcome the locals. By the time it is noticed, it is too late.

Argentina nearly defeated the British Navy, only the Execets exploded above the water line, and nearly all ships involved had to scrapped afterwards. Talk about a Pyrrhic victory, but Maggie got the result she needed - she got re-elected (on 42% of the vote). Long live FPTP.

steddyeddy

wes wrote: »

NI going South would be just as much a headache for them, maybe even more so, as they run the place.

It already has gone south. The British ran it into the ground.

catbear

murphaph wrote: »

NI will be handled with kid gloves by all sides. Gibraltar is a different story.

It should be treated with kid gloves but we are talking about a Tory government who without a serious rival in england aren't bothered about keeping unionists happy, especially when brexiters don't want an EU land border in a region that voted remain.

Gibraltar is much more totemic for the English.

steddyeddy

Northern Ireland aside, the island of Rockall could become a topic of heated discussion in the next two years. Rockall is an isolated island 300 miles offf the coast of Ireland.

Apparently Britain claimed it in 1955 by planting a flag on it, but Ireland, Iceland and Denmark have previously challenged that claim. By the logic of the English the Americans own the moon as they planted a flag there.

Anyway this could spark an issue over fishing right as there's suspicion that the British could try to claim exclusive fishing rights once they pull out of the EU. As with Gibraltar ownership of the rock would not be in dispute but there would be a dispute about the waters around the rock. From the BBC.

Controversy over the ownership of an isolated islet in the north Atlantic could re-emerge between Ireland the UK after Brexit, it has been claimed.
Rockall is fewer than 300 miles from the western coasts of the Republic of Ireland and Scotland.
The UK claimed Rockall in 1955, but Ireland, Iceland and Denmark have previously challenged that claim.
Sovereignty over the islet was settled in the UK's favour in 2014.
However, some in the Republic have warned that the UK's exit from the EU could cause Britain to "pull up the drawbridge" on international use of the area.
"It could raise the age-old controversy over ownership of Rockall which was more or less resolved between the UK and Ireland in 2014," said Jane Morrice, a former European Commission representative in Northern Ireland.
"The fact that the rock outcrop in the north Atlantic is claimed by the UK as part of Scotland could make it a small but serious point in future negotiations."
She said talks over fishing rights would require a complicated agreement that could make or break Northern Ireland's fishing industry.
Éamon Ó Cuív, the island affairs spokesman for Fianna Fáil, the Republic's biggest opposition party, said there would be a strong desire among many in the UK fishing industry to "pull up the drawbridge" and ban non-UK fishing boats in UK waters in the event of a hard Brexit.
Sean O'Donoghue, chief executive of the Killybegs Fishermen's Organisation in County Donegal on the north-west coast, said ownership of the actual rock would not be in dispute but there would be an issue over access to the waters.
"We can fish at the minute at Rockall as we have fishing rights there but when the UK leaves they will no longer be part of the Common Fisheries Policy and there will have to be some detailed discussions around the fisheries which are very difficult to resolve."

catbear

Wouldn't Rockall be a Scottish claim should they leave the UK?

steddyeddy

catbear wrote: »

Wouldn't Rockall be a Scottish claim should they leave the UK?

Well yes as long as Denmark, Iceland and Ireland agreed.! Which throws up another problem.

demfad

Foreign States may have interfered in vote, report says

Foreign governments such as Russia and China may have been involved in the collapse of a voter registration website in the run-up to the EU referendum, a committee of MPs has claimed.

A report by the Commons public administration and constitutional affairs committee (PACAC) said MPs were deeply concerned about the allegations of foreign interference in last year’s Brexit vote.

The committee does not identify who may have been responsible, but has noted that both Russia and China use an approach to cyber-attacks based on an understanding of mass psychology and of how to exploit individuals.

The findings follow repeated claims that Russia has been involved in trying to influence the US and French presidential elections.

I think more information will start coming out about Russian influence in Brexit. For instance the CIA are investigating Russian influence with right wing parties including UKIP.

Big data company Cambridge Analtica was used for free during Brexit to circumvent British law. Farage and CamAna co-owner and Trump backer Robert Mercer said it was a favour to an old pal (Farage). Bannon was on the board since the set up of the company in 2014.

This article shows links between the following: Trump, Tchenguiz, Bannon, Mercer, Ukrainian oligarch Dmitry Firtash, Manafort; all with Russian ties.

Here is Mercer's ties to Russian telecoms:

Aaron Banks who funded leave.eu and UKIP, the biggest donor in UK electoral history (I believe) is defensive about his ties to Russia.

Tchenguiz won £1.2 million betting on Brexit. Mercers Renaissance made quite a lot more.

Also Vincent Tchenguiz and Mikhail Fridman (CEO Alphabank) are co-located at 35 Park Lane, London. One FBI FISA warrant is into nefarious comms between a server in alphabank Moscow, a server in Trump tower and server in Spectrum Health Michigan.

Farage is good friends with Russian agent Julian Assange and has met Assange and Roger Stone regularly over the election period.

What does this mean for Brexit?

We are seeing the same actors in both elections with unusually high Russian connections. If WW3 doesnt kick off inside 2 months, the Trump investigation will have escalated to a degree where it is the biggest scandal of the century. People close to Trump will be arrested and Trump will resign or face impeachment or worse.
The growing awareness of a massive international Russian operation will roar onto the Brexit stage. Assuming UK is 3-0 down in negotiations at this point this greatly enhances the liklihood of a second referendum on Brexit.

Water John

Demfad you are always interesting. You say Farage met regularly with Russian agent Assange.
I accept Russia fed emails and data to Wikileaks, though he tried to deny it. Are you saying Farage made trips to the Ecuadorian embassy?

I still think the server in Trump Tower is the biggest smoking gun.

demfad

Water John wrote: »

Demfad you are always interesting. You say Farage met regularly with Russian agent Assange.
I accept Russia fed emails and data to Wikileaks, though he tried to deny it. Are you saying Farage made trips to the Ecuadorian embassy?

I still think the server in Trump Tower is the biggest smoking gun.

This is from Thursday May 9th 2017. Thats the Ecudorian embassy in London where Julian Assange lives :



https://wikileaks.org/ciav7p1/ Wikileaks Vault 7 dumped two days previously.


Long standing links to Julian Assange since 2011 related to 'European Arrest Warrant'

Knows Roger Stone who corresponded with DNC hacker Guccifer 2.0 on twitter 16 times. Below he uses a meeting to pretend that Farage discovered election fraud in Brexit which Guccifer 2.0 spread.



Assange gets Russian Visa and starts work for Russia Today in 2011. Anti Russian Wikileaks stop. Farage now helping Assange with 'arrest warrant'.

Water John

The book, when it's written on this, will be very interesting.

ancapailldorcha

Back on topic please and less of the conspiracy stuff.

catbear

Interesting. I don't follow this but my wife tells me that the areas where she's been tracking rental prices have had big drops in the last few months, 15-20%. We're near universities and hospitals so some seasonality has to be factored in but still that's a big variation.