Brexit Referendum Superthread

catbear

Wasn't the support for the first indy ref only mid 20% when it was announced?

I think the EU question was secondary although I do remember the Scottish pound being kept was a promise.

Obviously everything has changed and Scotland like Ireland had links with the continent that predate the English led empire.

steddyeddy

catbear wrote: »

Wasn't the support for the first indy ref only mid 20% when it was announced?

I think the EU question was secondary although I do remember the Scottish pound being kept was a promise.

Obviously everything has changed and Scotland like Ireland had links with the continent that predate the English led empire.

It think it was 22% which rose to 45%. Now polls show support for independence is rising.

wes

steddyeddy wrote: »

It think it was 22% which rose to 45%. Now polls show support for independence is rising.

Will be a very hard campaign for the Unionist side, as every Brexit arguement would also apply to Scotland leaving the UK. They would need Brexit to go very well (which is looking increasingly unlikely) to win imho, that or go for a soft Brexit which would kill indyref 2 right away. I think May is going to pull a Cameron, and find herself the last Prime Minister of the UK, if she isn't careful.

catbear

steddyeddy wrote: »

It think it was 22% which rose to 45%. Now polls show support for independence is rising.

Indyref2 isn't the same leap into the unknown as the first vote or brexit.

Jayop

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Independence got 44.7% of the vote while leaving the EU got 38%. Independence also had a much higher turnout that the EU referendum. More people voted to remain in the UK in Scotland than voted to remain in the EU.

So? Turnout is of no consequence. The fact is that a greater percentage of those who voted voted to remain in the EU and significantly so.

ancapailldorcha

Jayop wrote: »

So? Turnout is of no consequence. The fact is that a greater percentage of those who voted voted to remain in the EU and significantly so.

I think we're going off on a tangent. All I wanted to highlight was that Scotland isn't as Europhilic as they've been made out to be. That said, I have a lot of sympathy for them being dragged out against their will.

Jayop

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think we're going off on a tangent. All I wanted to highlight was that Scotland isn't as Europhilic as they've been made out to be. That said, I have a lot of sympathy for them being dragged out against their will.

Fair enough. I do think the majority are pro European but there's a decent amount who aren't.

ancapailldorcha

Jayop wrote: »

Fair enough. I do think the majority are pro European but there's a decent amount who aren't.

Very much agreed. There's a reason why there is no UKIP presence there.The Scots seem to be very much more grounded as a nation and less ideological than their English neighbours.

Sam Russell

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-government-realises-brexit-is-a-mistake-official-says-1.3048046

The British government is slowly realising Brexit is an act of great self-harm and that upcoming EU-UK negotiations must seek to limit the damage, the State's top Brexit official has said.

Looks like the British Government are beginning to realise that Brexit might not have been a very good idea.

I wonder if they will abandon the idea, or go for a second referendum with truth at the centre, or just negotiate for the softest of soft exit with a right to re-enter later when no-one is looking.

Interesting times indeed.

Jayop

I was reading that earlier. I just don't see a second referendum as possible politically for the tories even if they think it's right. It'll be seen as a huge failure and all the feared electoral losses from the first ref will come to bear.

A second referendum asking people what they want once the actual alternative to staying in Europe is clear would be a good idea but won't happen.

catbear

Jayop wrote: »

I just don't see a second referendum as possible politically for the tories even if they think it's right.

The only way to turn Brexit around is the Tories losing power but until Corbyn (sorry LibDems, too small) is ousted i can't see there being a viable alternative leadership alternative to swing public opinion.

It's a horrible dynamic but I guess having the EU being misused for so long as a whipping boy the general electorate will have to learn the truth the hard way.

Foghladh

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Jayop wrote: »

Fair enough. I do think the majority are pro European but there's a decent amount who aren't.

Very much agreed. There's a reason why there is no UKIP presence there.The Scots seem to be very much more grounded as a nation and less ideological than their English neighbours.

Less ideological or following a different ideology?

Jim2007

Jayop wrote: »

A second referendum asking people what they want once the actual alternative to staying in Europe is clear would be a good idea but won't happen.

There is not no option to stay in the EU!  British legal opinion on this fails to take a count of the fact that any such attempt will be interpreted by the ECJ along civil law lines as the majority of the jurists are civil law advocates.  And as such they will strictly apply article 50.  Meaning the options will be:
- Take the deal
- Walk away 
- Reapply for membership as required by article 50

Calina

Jim2007 wrote: »

There is not no option to stay in the EU!  British legal opinion on this fails to take a count of the fact that any such attempt will be interpreted by the ECJ along civil law lines as the majority of the jurists are civil law advocates.  And as such they will strictly apply article 50.  Meaning the options will be:
- Take the deal
- Walk away 
- Reapply for membership as required by article 50

There is a case, I believe, slowly going through the motions of justice regarding the revocability of an Article 50 notification. In the event that an Article 50 notification can actually be revoked prior to the lapse of the 2 years, then I think it's unsafe to say there's no going back.

That's one thing.

The second thing is the two year period can technically be prolonged. While it's likely to be difficult to get the unanimity together to manage it, the fact is as an option for delay it exists.

Jayop

Yeah I had thought it could be revoked before the two year time frame but where I think I know that from is anyone's guess.

catbear

I can't imagine a revocation going unchallenged in the ECJ, especially by hardcore brexiteers. Ironic as that sounds.

Water John

Things will not be done in 2 years IMO. Any other negotiations of this type have taken 5/6 years and more.
A time ext looks likely and no one can account of how the world will change in that time.

catbear

Water John wrote: »

Things will not be done in 2 years IMO. Any other negotiations of this type have taken 5/6 years and more.
A time ext looks likely and no one can account of how the world will change in that time.

I think the divorce can be settled in two with the EU setting the pace. Brexit is now a secondary matter and shouldn't take up EU parliaments time.

The future relationship part however can take as long as the EU needs it to take, decades if needs be. I'm sure there'll be a thousand little single issue objections from vested interest groups to be countered when allowing the UK a trade deal. While that's happening the UK will just have to accept whatever is agreed within the EU if it wants to protect existing trade.

Nody

Sam Russell wrote: »

Looks like the British Government are beginning to realise that Brexit might not have been a very good idea.

I wonder if they will abandon the idea, or go for a second referendum with truth at the centre, or just negotiate for the softest of soft exit with a right to re-enter later when no-one is looking.

Interesting times indeed.

I think Mrs May will go for a hard brexit over a soft one simply so she can finally claim she managed to cut immigration; I think she's that pig headed about ramming that policy down no matter what to be honest. She failed to do it as a minister but god damn it she'll get the work done finally...

Jim2007

Two things to consider:
- The UK needs the EU to support their WTO membership application, otherwise the U.K. Will be making no trade deals
- Anything beyond the usual type of WTO deal will require the U.K. to enter into some kind of customs union with the EU similar to Turkey, thus restricting their ability to make trade deals

catbear

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-15/london-housing-market-suffering-worst-collapse-financial-crisis

While buyers - especially those relying on mortgages - remain largely locked out of the market because of high prices, nervousness about Brexit and the U.K. outlook, price downside according to realtors may be "limited because of the continued shortage in the supply of property to buy, with estate agents’ listings reportedly at a record low."

Which is odd because a cursory check reveals not only that there is a glut of high end properties, many of which have been on the market as long as a year, but that despite huge discounts as high as 40%, nothing is moving, and just this one listing service has no less than 124 pages of properties - at 15 properties per page - with price declines in Kensington and Chelsea alone, up from "

I reckon a good property bust will spook a lot of Leave voters.

Foghladh

catbear wrote: »

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-15/london-housing-market-suffering-worst-collapse-financial-crisis

While buyers - especially those relying on mortgages - remain largely locked out of the market because of high prices, nervousness about Brexit and the U.K. outlook, price downside according to realtors may be "limited because of the continued shortage in the supply of property to buy, with estate agents’ listings reportedly at a record low."

Which is odd because a cursory check reveals not only that there is a glut of high end properties, many of which have been on the market as long as a year, but that despite huge discounts as high as 40%, nothing is moving, and just this one listing service has no less than 124 pages of properties - at 15 properties per page - with price declines in Kensington and Chelsea alone, up from "

I reckon a good property bust will spook a lot of Leave voters.

Yes I'm sure that a lot of Leave voters will be incredibly unsettled by the glut in high end properties in Kensington and Chelsea.

catbear

Foghladh wrote: »

Yes I'm sure that a lot of Leave voters will be incredibly unsettled by the glut in high end properties in Kensington and Chelsea.

Yeah but sun reading white van man outside London will be getting twitchy as the bust spreads, top end goes first.

FrancieBrady

Speculation that May is going to call a snap election. Press called to Downing St announcement at 11.15am

devnull

Clearly an election and the media know and have been told to keep shut.

Other speculation is she will resign.

ancapailldorcha

It's possible that she could be stepping down. Perhaps she feels that she can't deliver the Brexit that people voted for.

If it's an election, I can't see it being anything other than a seat grab by the Tories. Labour are a shambles, UKIP's raison d'etre has been all but accomplished, the Greens are a fringe operation and the Lib Dems won't win enough votes to stop Brexit.

devnull

Only positive thing of this is that Corbyn will go quicker now, negative is that it will be another five years before someone else would have a chance and I was hoping that the next election Corbyn would already be gone by.

ancapailldorcha

devnull wrote: »

Only positive thing of this is that Corbyn will go quicker now, negative is that it will be another five years before someone else would have a chance and I was hoping that the next election Corbyn would already be gone by.

Corbyn is entrenched at this stage and his opponents in Labour know it. His members supported him after Brexit. I think the only way he's moving is either by his own volition or his death.

devnull

Surely he would have no choice if they get hammered in a general election though, which is almost certainly going to be the case? In that respect an election could speed up his demise.

However I suspect most Labour people were hoping they could have an election before 2022 without Corbyn as leader.

devnull

Speculation something is embargoed until 11.00am, health version has been ruled out by a quite spicy message sent to Adam Boulton by Downing Street that he read out on air.

June 8th being speculated.