Brexit Referendum Superthread

the groutch

YouGov poll says 52% remain

Nigel Farage saying his own poll giving small majority to remain.

Lemming

Bob24 wrote: »

If leave was to win I think it would also blow-up Labour and the Tories though. Each of them would have a group of eurosceptics working on implementing Brexit and a group of europhiles doing all they can to prevent if from happening.

I think you have that wrong; the brexiters Turkeys who wanted Christmas will be receiving an extrordinarily harsh lesson in "the real world" by other members of the EU as they attempt to hand over demands for free, unrestricted trade whilst not being a member of the club with a straight face. Nobody else within or without said parties will need to lift a finger. After that comes the extordinarily harsh but apt reminder that governments should be afraid of their people, not the other way around, as the masses who bought the lies realise they've been had and that they're the ones who are going to pay for it all.

Rightwing

£ and futures rocketing. Easy pickings this one was.

Hard to know if that incident last week turned it.

Jimoslimos

Bob24 wrote: »

Well in my comment I was obviously assuming remain would win.

If leave was to win I think it would also blow-up Labour and the Tories though. Each of them would have a group of eurosceptics working on implementing Brexit and a group of europhiles doing all they can to prevent if from happening.

Ah misread it. In any case I don't think a Leave vote would be as damaging to Labour. It would be a push to describe any of them as "eurosceptics" - even those who are campaigning for Leave. "Euro-ambivalents" might be a better description.

prinzeugen

I voted leave by post being an expat and know two family members that would be SNP heads that have also voted to leave so the result might not be what people are expecting.

A Dub in Glasgo

prinzeugen wrote: »

I voted leave by post being an expat and know two family members that would be SNP heads that have also voted to leave so the result might not be what people are expecting.

Our household remain votes cancelled you and your family members out :pac:

Bob24

Lemming wrote: »

I think you have that wrong; the brexiters Turkeys who wanted Christmas will be receiving an extrordinarily harsh lesson in "the real world" by other members of the EU as they attempt to hand over demands for free, unrestricted trade whilst not being a member of the club with a straight face. Nobody else within or without said parties will need to lift a finger. After that comes the extordinarily harsh but apt reminder that governments should be afraid of their people, not the other way around, as the masses who bought the lies realise they've been had and that they're the ones who are going to pay for it all.

Well your way of saying it is quite politically oriented, but actually doesn't go against what I said: within each party one group would work on implementing Brexit (not matter how hard - or impossible in your view - it might be), and another group would make no effort or even do whet the can to prevent it. In the end those groups would drift further and further away from each other and parties would blow-up.

Btw, while I don't completely agree with it, your view of what would happen after a Brexit vote is quite gloomy about the EU. If you are right the EU is like Hotel California: you can check-out but you can never leave.

prinzeugen

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Our household remain votes cancelled you and your family members out :pac:

Did I mention the other 9 that have voted out also?

A Dub in Glasgo

prinzeugen wrote: »

Did I mention the other 9 that have voted out also?

No you didn't, did I mention the 9 friends who cancelled them out as well?

Rightwing

Was hoping for a Brexit.

It's more of a win for the EU than anything else. Brexit would probably have collapsed it.

Bob24

Jimoslimos wrote: »

Ah misread it. In any case I don't think a Leave vote would be as damaging to Labour. It would be a push to describe any of them as "eurosceptics" - even those who are campaigning for Leave. "Euro-ambivalents" might be a better description.

Agreed if you are talking about the leaders of the party. But a good bit of their electorate (though not the majority) is clearly on the leave side and will remain against EU membership no matter the result of the vote. If Labour and the left in general doesn't do anything to address that crowd they will in my opinion lose quite many of these voters to UKIP.

Lemming

Bob24 wrote: »

Btw, while I don't completely agree with it, your view of would would happen after a Brexit vote is quite gloomy about the EU. If you are right the EU is like Hotel California: you can check-out but you can never leave.

Not at all. It literally comes down to the reality-check that the UK wishes to leave a club, and still avail of the facilities without paying for it. That's the simple analogy. Needless to say, other EU members will view that attitude as - rightly - out of order. That's on top of more than a few EU members who don't really do trade with the UK saying "why should we subside their trade? It's no skin off our noses if they're out".

Edit: one can always leave; but the real question is what in what shape your country will be left after leaving; the question that nobody in support of the Leave campaign would appear to have bothered to ask themselves.

Canis Lupus

prinzeugen wrote: »

I voted leave by post being an expat and know two family members that would be SNP heads that have also voted to leave so the result might not be what people are expecting.

I've only seen remain votes on Facebook. One person voted leave.

mansize

SNP were remain, they were staying no matter what

Bob24

Lemming wrote: »

Not at all. It literally comes down to the reality-check that the UK wishes to leave a club, and still avail of the facilities without paying for it. That's the simple analogy. Needless to say, other EU members will view that attitude as - rightly - out of order. That's on top of more than a few EU members who don't really do trade with the UK saying "why should we subside their trade? It's no skin off our noses if they're out".

Edit: one can always leave; but the real question is what in what shape your country will be left after leaving; the question that nobody in support of the Leave campaign would appear to have bothered to ask themselves.

I am not sure whether or not I agree, but essentially what you are saying is that the EU is holding the UK captive because if they leave there is no way the UK can prosper on this continent.

That's pretty much my Hotel California analogy: you can decide to leave but you can't actually leave.

gandalf

Canis Lupus wrote: »

I've only seen remain votes on Facebook. One person voted leave.

People are probably scared to admit they voted leave.

flatty

Lemming wrote: »

Not at all. It literally comes down to the reality-check that the UK wishes to leave a club, and still avail of the facilities without paying for it. That's the simple analogy. Needless to say, other EU members will
view that attitude as - rightly - out of order. That's on top of more than a few EU members who don't really do trade with the UK saying "why should we subside their trade? It's no skin off our noses if they're out".

Edit: one can always leave; but the real question is what in what shape your country will be left after leaving; the question that nobody in support of the Leave campaign would appear to have bothered to ask themselves.

Crap analogy in fairness when we have plundered said club for years, still rifle it's paying members pockets by fleecing their corporation taxes, and now get shirty when a net payer to the tune of 10 billion or so pa decides to vote whether to leave said "club" or not.

Francie Barrett

I think the 52:48 exit poll for Remain will end up underplaying the final number.

Liamalone

Flipped coin, voted Leave, used sharpie marker.

prinzeugen

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I think the 52:48 exit poll for Remain will end up underplaying the final number.

I think it will be 53/47 to leave..

Billy86

Just in the door from work, and the Brexit has been strangely quiet news this side of the pond (which is odd given how important it is, that Canada is in the commonwealth, and that our gay marriage vote was MAJOR news here... for 1-2 days). By the looks of a few things I've seen it appears to be sealed for 'stay' about as definitively as can be, but I'm reading some other comments and bits also that 'leave' has won easily. Which is it?

Christ, don't you just love negative noise-creation-as-politics? :rolleyes: :pac:

The_Kew_Tour

53/47 for me too.

Close affair though and the immigration vote had big say. But it's a democracy at end of day.
Got accept that.

Lemming

Bob24 wrote: »

I am not sure whether or not I agree, but essentially what you are saying is that the EU is holding the UK captive because if they leave there is no way the UK can prosper on this continent.

That's pretty much my Hotel California analogy: you can decide to leave but you can't actually leave.

It's not. The EU is not holding the UK captive; reality provides a sobering cold light of day. I don't understand how you cannot see the simple reality that if the UK leaves there will be ramifications; economic, social, and political. In order for the EU to agree on anything, all member states have to give their consent. What the UK would be demanding is that all EU members - even those who do no tangiblke trade with the UK - subside UK trade into the EU whilst allowing the UK to play loose & fast with regulations to suit itself. The simple question for the other member states; particularly those who don't really do much trade with the UK is "why should we?". Much in the same way that the Leave campaign has complained about the UK being a net contributor to the EU; "why should we?".

There's nothing "Hotel California" about it; that's just drama.

Billy86

I found this interesting - compared to Scotland where (if I recall) the older voters were so entrenched in staying in the UK that they swung it (the 60+ demographic was amazingly out of sync with the other age/voting trends), the exact opposite seems to be the case here with older voters wanting out of the EU (as opposed to in the UK) and younger voters more likely to remain.

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/746100793581903873/photo/1

A Dub in Glasgo

Liamalone wrote: »

used sharpie marker.

Hook line and sinker for the conspiracy then?

Francie Barrett

Gibraltar vote in, 96% vote to remain :pac:

gandalf

Gibraltar votes to remain by 96% (not a surprise really).

youreadthat

Gibraltar, great bunch of lads.:pac:

bpb101

Going to be a great night lads. 1/382. Dominos at the ready

gandalf

Farage on the BBC at the moment. I really detest that man!