Brexit Referendum Superthread

danganabu

Enzokk wrote: »

Not too sure what to make of this, do people in the UK still believe they can host EU agencies if they want nothing to do with the EU? Seems as though it is clear as day what will happen to reasonable people, so the question must be if the people in the Brexit department are reasonable?



UK contradicts EU over location of agencies after Brexit


https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/854687528254918657

Just spin, when the inevitable happens and the agencies are moved its a further example for the UK to highlight as something that the EU took from them and that they sacrificed as part of the negotiations when the reality is they have forfeited the agencies and there isn't a snoball chance in hell of them remaining in the UK, it would literally make no sense, it would be the equivalent of having the headquarters of the HSE in Spain or the Irish Central Bank in Paris :rolleyes:

Water John

Well the Irish Central Bank Hq are in Frankfurt.

CIARAN_BOYLE

danganabu wrote: »

Just spin, when the inevitable happens and the agencies are moved its a further example for the UK to highlight as something that the EU took from them and that they sacrificed as part of the negotiations when the reality is they have forfeited the agencies and there isn't a snoball chance in hell of them remaining in the UK, it would literally make no sense, it would be the equivalent of having the headquarters of the HSE in Spain or the Irish Central Bank in Paris :rolleyes:

unless Britain is going to make an offer whereby they pay a significant proportion of the operating cost of those eu agencies in return for keeping them based in the UK and retaining access to their services there's not a chance they stay.

danganabu

Water John wrote: »

Well the Irish Central Bank Hq are in Frankfurt.

European Central Bank HQ are in Frankfurt, if we were to leave the EU, which the UK have/are doing then the HQ would be in Dame Street.

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

Well the Irish Central Bank Hq are in Frankfurt.

I used to think that.

The irony of the Irish Central Bank taking over the (would have been) HQ of Anglo Irish Bank in the docks is just delicious.

You could not make this stuff up.

danganabu

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

unless Britain is going to make an offer whereby they pay a significant proportion of the operating cost of those eu agencies in return for keeping them based in the UK and retaining access to their services there's not a chance they stay.

Even with that offer there is absolutely no chance, its a red-herring. I think people under estimate the feeling of ill will against the UK in the corridors of Brussels, BREXIT will be a punishment not a compromise anything else would simply leave the door open to others to leave, the UK must be seen to be in a significantly worse position on 30 May 2019 that they were on 29 May 2017.

Bit cynical

Peregrinus wrote: »

A general election is obviously not going to strengthen May's hand externally, in her dealings with the EU. She already has all the mandate she needs to deal with the EU on behalf of the UK; she's the Prime Minister of the UK. No general election can make her more the Prime Minister than she already is.

Her objective is to strengthen her hand internally, and in particular within her own party.

Just like Cameron, she has decided to try to sidestep party divisions by going to the people. What could possibly go wrong?

There's not much of a difference really between strengthening her hand externally or internally. A strong hand is a strong hand after all. She needs to be strong internally to be strong externally. There's a difference between a leader with the support of the people and one without.

What could go wrong is that she doesn't get the support of the people for her particular approach to brexit. If as has been put about on this forum there are large numbers of people who voted for brexit and are now regretting it, that might be the case. This election will put that question to bed once and for all.

My prediction however is that she will be strengthened not only with regard to brexit but politically generally. There's never been much evidence for the notion that large numbers of brexit voters have regrets over brexit. The main problem has been denial among those who voted to remain as well as those who did not vote.

joeysoap

Bit cynical wrote: »

My prediction however is that she will be strengthened not only with regard to brexit but politically generally. There's never been much evidence for the notion that large numbers of brexit voters have regrets over brexit. The main problem has been denial among those who voted to remain as well as those who did not vote.

Agreed. Any English person I have spoken to this year now accepts Brexit and as the sky hasn't actually fallen in since the vote the ones who voted to exit are not for turning and those who voted to remain haven't seen any negatives and now believe they might have been wrong.

danganabu wrote: »

..... The UK must be seen to be in a significantly worse position on 30 May 2019 that they were on 29 May 2017.

You are in or you are not. If you are not a member equality with membership shouldn't arise. Otherwise what's the point of being a member ?

steddyeddy

joeysoap wrote: »

Agreed. Any English person I have spoken to this year now accepts Brexit and as the sky hasn't actually fallen in since the vote the ones who voted to exit are not for turning and those who voted to remain haven't seen any negatives and now believe they might have been wrong.

The European Medicines Agency, European Banking agency, the fall of the pound and the loss of science funding. If people don't see a negative it's because they've buried their head in their hands.

joeysoap

steddyeddy wrote: »

The European Medicines Agency, European Banking agency, the fall of the pound and the loss of science funding. If people don't see a negative it's because they've buried their head in their hands.

Bar the fall in their holiday spending money all the rest means zilch to the average punter. I was in the company of two remainers on tuesday and they are voting for May, they actually believe that within 5 years the pound will be stronger than it was, that the UK will be stronger and envied and admired around the world (a la Marien le Pen, and snigger not,they think she is on the right track), that the UK will outperform the EU. As for NI and a hard border, won't give it a second thought. Couldn't see that what they were advocating i.e. U.K. standing 'free' from the EU was what the SNP were also also advocating for Scotland from England.

Jim2007

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

unless Britain is going to make an offer whereby they pay a significant proportion of the operating cost of those eu agencies in return for keeping them based in the UK and retaining access to their services there's not a chance they stay.

It is a non starter, you cannot have a situation where two major institutions of the EU are beyond the jurisdiction of the ECJ. For example there is a trade dispute and suddenly the U.K. Dept of Trade is raiding the offices seeking evidence to support their position.

Water John

They'll have to give the institutions, diplomatic status.

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

They'll have to give the institutions, diplomatic status.

No, they move them - preferably to here.

murphaph

I'm in Britain (South Wales) for the first time in a few years and God it feels like the place has been taken over by slow, simple morons.

I'm realising how Brexit is coming to pass. I don't credit many of the people I've encountered here with the wit to even make out the writing on the wall, never mind read or understand it.

They will have to go through the fiscal pain of Brexit and even then I suspect they'll accept the Daily Mail's line that the EU is to blame. I was at a mining museum today and the tour guide remarked that people look back nostalgically at the Victorian era but that in his opinion it was a terrible time for ordinary working people with 5 year old children working 10 hour shifts in complete darkness 6 days a week.

The UK is not returning to this but I do expect things to change negatively under permanent Tory rule and employee rights will be a victim IMO. Basildon man may finally reap what he has sown.

steddyeddy

joeysoap wrote: »

Bar the fall in their holiday spending money all the rest means zilch to the average punter. I was in the company of two remainers on tuesday and they are voting for May, they actually believe that within 5 years the pound will be stronger than it was, that the UK will be stronger and envied and admired around the world (a la Marien le Pen, and snigger not,they think she is on the right track), that the UK will outperform the EU. As for NI and a hard border, won't give it a second thought. Couldn't see that what they were advocating i.e. U.K. standing 'free' from the EU was what the SNP were also also advocating for Scotland from England.

Unless the UK adapt the EMA's drug regulations there'll be a delay in approving new medications in the UK. Even if they adapt the regulations they'll have no input into them.

Enzokk

steddyeddy wrote: »

Unless the UK adapt the EMA's drug regulations there'll be a delay in approving new medications in the UK. Even if they adapt the regulations they'll have no input into them.

In other words taking back control?

Leonard Hofstadter

But sure they're sick of the experts and the 'elites'!

They're literally saying sure if people don't like it in the UK why not go back to where they came from :rolleyes:.

They are deluded beyond belief when it comes to Brexit - and they absolutely will blame the EU when it goes belly up (which it will if they keep their current attitude), it's worse than a fecking religious cult.

The longer I spend in the UK, the more I wonder what they are actually thought in school. Geography doesn't seem to exist as a subject, such is their lack of awareness of their own country never mind the outside world, and obviously history is a bit of a problem when we have The Secretary for Trade Liam Fox, a qualified doctor (so presumably someone very intelligent) saying that Britain had nothing to be ashamed of in its 20th century history, now I'm as big a West Brit as you'll find and that made my skin crawl.

The evidence is that the economy is slowing down, that wages are being are being squeezed, none of that matters. The fact that we have such an appalling opposition does not help - and I hold the Labour grass roots and the hard left responsible for the fact that May is allowed bully the remainers any way she wants. I listened to PMQs the other day and how the Labour party could have elected Corbyn over Yvette Cooper is beyond me - she is one fiesty and able lady and you could see the way she really made May squirm, imagine how different things could be in the UK had Labour elected her in 2015? The UK probably wouldn't have even voted to leave had Labour put someone who really does believe that Britain's interests are best served by being in the EU (which is self-evident to anyone with even the slightest understanding of how the world really works) and had campaigned vigorously to stay in the EU, but even if they had, at least with someone like Cooper there would be hope for the 48% of remain voters. We're being totally ignored at the moment and there is a massive vacuum. Sadly the Lib Dems are too small even though of course I will vote for them and ask anyone I know to vote for them on the basis that they are the only anti-Brexit party.

Bit cynical

captainspeed wrote: »

The longer I spend in the UK, the more I wonder what they are actually thought in school.

...taught in school.

Igotadose

captainspeed wrote: »

The longer I spend in the UK, the more I wonder what they are actually taught in school.

It's turning into the US. Living in Ireland now but seeing the UK much closer than in the past, it's frightening how much it reminds me of the US. Same attitudes, same entertainments. This isn't a good thing. Some of it dribbles into Ireland which is scary, too, but it doesn't seem its happening quickly.

who the fug

Water John wrote: »

They'll have to give the institutions, diplomatic status.

They already have diplomatic status

catbear

That's a pretty severe drop.

embraer170

who the fug wrote: »

They already have diplomatic status

From reading the list, only a very limited number of staff (Directors) have diplomatic status.

who the fug

embraer170 wrote: »

From reading the list, only a very limited number of staff (Directors) have diplomatic status.

Same with most Embassies/High Commissions/Organizations on that list.

ambro25

catbear wrote: »

That's a pretty severe drop.

I'll just leave this here, from 5 months ago:

ambro25 wrote: »

I was lucky to attend an economic briefing by Dame Frances Cairncross yesterday morning.

Regrettably her slides are not publicly accessible, but the 1980s-to-current productivity graph, painted a rather alarming picture: a steady dead cat bounce since 2008. In the face of the UK's job creation to date and fairly low unemployment rate by G7 standards.

This backs up her position that most of the jobs newly created since 2008 do not contribute much of anything to the UK GDP (because they are hand-to-mouth low-value jobs like pushing trolleys in supermarket car parks and washing cars on ex-petrol station forecourts, taken up by retirees and immigrants).

What the UK has enjoyed, is a low wage recovery. There is another 3 or 4 years of it to expect, before the next bust comes along in the cycle.

Now, more immediately, position the above in the developing context of:

• rapid inflationary pressure (estimated to reach 5% at next year's end...and that's conservative IMHO: witness the latest UK government announcement that they'll be changing their official preferred inflation measure to the CPIH from March next year); and
• rapid curtailment of free money: end of asset price driving through QE (this is Trump's declared policy in the US, it will filter through to the UK quick) and the UK is already close to the 'test limits' of its Laffer Curve;

which guarantee a slower growth come what may in the next few years.

Add Hammond's £100bn budget hole pre-Brexit for the 2016/2017 exercise and, well...The apocalypse won't happen, sure. But a foretaste is well on the cards.

The BBC article about this retail quarterly drop crunched some numbers, and your graph is not surprising in the least once you see that,

The ONS said average store prices had increased by 3.3% on the year, the highest growth since March 2012.

The largest contribution came from petrol stations, where prices were up by some 16.4% on the year.

and that,

"The latest IHS survey data showed the amount of cash that households had available to spend fell in April to the greatest extent for two and a half years," he added.

"Spending was supported by households eating further into their savings and taking on more debt [which] is clearly unsustainable in the long run".

I recall that savings-dibbing being mentioned in (thinking, not mainstream) media with some alarm not so long ago.

The Brexit feelgood (or ignorance) factor is fast running out of puff. Them 7 weeks to the GE might grow into even more of an interesting time, if that was even conceivable.

steddyeddy

Enzokk wrote: »

In other words taking back control?

This is it. There's been a complete loss of control.

swampgas

Independent (UK) report shows that the issue of legal jurisdiction isn't going to be sorted out easily if the UK go for a hard Brexit.

IMO this will be one that Theresa May will be loathe to accept. She really does seem to hate any EU legal authority having sway in the UK.

catbear

Some interesting charts over on reddit.



I can why people would feel nostalgic for the 80s and 90s.

First Up

I see the EU is already cutting some ground from under May about the jurisdiction of the ECJ.

I anticipate quite a lot of fun as the EU drops a number of other stink bombs into the Tories election manifesto. Not that the average Sun reading dunce would pay much attention but that's what got them here to begin with.

CrabRevolution

No matter what happens it will be spun to fit the narrative (by both sides in fairness).

If the EU makes any concessions, or does anything that benefits the UK in any way, it's proof the UK are "winning" and that Brexit was the right thing to do.

If the EU holds the line and the UK suffers as a result, it's proof that the EU is an evil entity "punishing" the UK and that Brexit was the right thing to do.

Regarding the wishful idea that the EMA and EBA somehow stay in the UK, surely the British would only love to get rid of it considering it's full of Europeans, experts, and regulations.

catbear

CrabRevolution wrote: »

If the EU holds the line and the UK suffers as a result, it's proof that the EU is an evil entity "punishing" the UK and that Brexit was the right thing to do

I don't think anyone in the EU is waiting to be thought of as anything other than the enemy in the British tabloid press.

They'd only accept the EU adopting Sterling and the Queen as head of the EU before they'd be positive about it.