Brexit Referendum Superthread

Enzokk

steddyeddy wrote: »

So May's so convinced that the EU is out to get her that she decided now was the best time to start a Tory power grab/election.

I am beginning to really dislike May. I think she's power mad, a unionist fanatic and not what the UK needs right now. She's also Tory to the core and stands by the latest cuts to the poorest in society.

Funny that she accuses the EU of trying to disrupt the negotiations yet she has called for an election that will take away almost 2 months from an already tight schedule. Already the EU blaming has begun from the PM and not even the press, not even a month after article 50 has been triggered.

steddyeddy

Enzokk wrote: »

Funny that she accuses the EU of trying to disrupt the negotiations yet she has called for an election that will take away almost 2 months from an already tight schedule. Already the EU blaming has begun from the PM and not even the press, not even a month after article 50 has been triggered.

It's utterly stupid. Brexit happened because some toffs with no care or thought for the lives of ordinary people decided to have a Tory civil war. This is the same thing again. pure idiocy.

Sam Russell

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/john-bruton-boris-johnson-misled-british-public-on-brexit-1.3063331

John Bruton appears to think that Britain might abandon Brexit, or will want to rejoin the EU in the future and that Ireland should keep alive that possibility.

Hmmm .... not sure that is wishful thinking on his part.

steddyeddy

Sam Russell wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/john-bruton-boris-johnson-misled-british-public-on-brexit-1.3063331

John Bruton appears to think that Britain might abandon Brexit, or will want to rejoin the EU in the future and that Ireland should keep alive that possibility.

Hmmm .... not sure that is wishful thinking on his part.

Whatever about the rest of the article he's right about one thing. He misled the public completely about Brexit.

catbear

Sam Russell wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/john-bruton-boris-johnson-misled-british-public-on-brexit-1.3063331

John Bruton appears to think that Britain might abandon Brexit, or will want to rejoin the EU in the future and that Ireland should keep alive that possibility.

Hmmm .... not sure that is wishful thinking on his part.

I don't think it unrealistic. Once the talks truly start and business decisions are taken like a major bank relocation then doubt about Brexit will start encroaching. As Merkel said Brexit is not a central concern but a side show from now on and seeing they're true standing in the greater scheme will give many reason for serious reflection.

Of course the true believers will never be for turning.

Leonard Hofstadter

A poll which was published in today's Times said that for the first time since the referendum, the British public thinks leaving the EU is a mistake.

That's some turnaround as I don't detect any evidence that the public at large have changed their minds on it.

Interesting nonetheless, it would be for the best if they did change their minds, not just for Ireland obviously, but the UK, too.

I think we do need to see the whole thing through and see what comes out at the other end, once Macron is (hopefully) elected there isn't too much to worry about on the EU side so while on the one hand it increases the room for manoeuvre and be more pragmatic knowing there won't be a voter backlash, for precisely that same reason they could more easily get away with playing hardball on the UK so that the will compromise more and because the UK has so much more to lose than the EU does if things go belly up.

If we don't see this through then the bunch of mad Eurosceptics will never shut up about it, we'll hear stuff like 'oh it would have been a success only for the Government doing a u-turn on (insert random issue here)' etc, at least if there is a proper hard Brexit and the economy tanks then we'll know how good the EU was for the UK and how much worse off the country is as a result of it. That then would make going back into the EU a much easier thing to sell to the electorate with an alternative Government and obviously if they went back in there would be no going back. I would presume in that scenario that the deal on offer would not be as good as the one the Brits currently have, after all they don't have to use the Euro and they've got some other dispensations as well (mind you, I'd still take them back in on their existing Ts and Cs in a heartbeat despite everything - our two countries are much better off working together as equal, independent nations, rather than drifting apart).

Nody

captainspeed wrote: »

I think we do need to see the whole thing through and see what comes out at the other end, once Macron is (hopefully) elected there isn't too much to worry about on the EU side so while on the one hand it increases the room for manoeuvre and be more pragmatic knowing there won't be a voter backlash, for precisely that same reason they could more easily get away with playing hardball on the UK so that the will compromise more and because the UK has so much more to lose than the EU does if things go belly up.

German election in September, Greece debt in general and of course Turkey Dictator power grab and the afterwaves from that can all throw nice big wrenches into your idea.

Peregrinus

captainspeed wrote: »

A poll which was published in today's Times said that for the first time since the referendum, the British public thinks leaving the EU is a mistake.

That's some turnaround as I don't detect any evidence that the public at large have changed their minds on it . . .

It's not really that much of a turnaround. Remember that the "Leave" vote one by a fairly small margin. This poll show a majority favouring continued membership but, again, by a small margin. It doesn't require too many people to change there minds to convert a small margin for leave into a small margin for remain. The great bulk of people, on both sides, have not changed their minds. The UK is pretty much as divided as it ever was on this subject.

But fear not! Nurse May will apply healing balm to the nation's wounds, and bind up its divisions to bring about harmony, concord and a common purpose, through a general election.

devnull

Something that made me smile:

demfad

Nody wrote: »

German election in September, Greece debt in general and of course Turkey Dictator power grab and the afterwaves from that can all throw nice big wrenches into your idea.

What about the German election has you worried? The afd are polling at 8% and their leader has resigned?

Zubeneschamali

Nody wrote: »

Greece debt in general

Greek debt is small compared to the EU economy. You may not like how the ECB/EU are dealing with it, but there is absolutely no way Greek debt is taking down the EU or the Euro, nor is there any appetite in Greece to leave.

Nody

demfad wrote: »

What about the German election has you worried? The afd are polling at 8% and their leader has resigned?

Merkel losing her mandate with a new leader wanting to be strong against UK.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Greek debt is small compared to the EU economy. You may not like how the ECB/EU are dealing with it, but there is absolutely no way Greek debt is taking down the EU or the Euro, nor is there any appetite in Greece to leave.

But it risks taking away the focus on Brexit and cause irritation in general (and wanting to show Greece that leaving/being kicked out would be a very bad thing (tm)).

Zubeneschamali

Nody wrote: »

But it risks taking away the focus on Brexit

I think this would be a good thing. Let the negotiations happen in their own time, stop relaying internal Tory politics as if they mattered outside the UK.

Nody

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think this would be a good thing. Let the negotiations happen in their own time, stop relaying internal Tory politics as if they mattered outside the UK.

Not really; if people get generally cranky and feelings start to wave around the parlament it will influence the Brexit negotiation as well. There will be ill will against all these "trouble makers" who constantly want their own way etc. This in turn would make an acceptable Brexit deal even less likely to pass simply because they get grouped up in the trouble maker category overeall and people are simply pissed off. Add in the European newspapers and politicans starting to make waves ala Greece bail out and "how they need to learn" etc. and it can become a huge issue.

This is why I listed Greece debt debate in the overall list of things to throw a wrench into the negotiations / sign off of the Brexit deal even if it's fair.

demfad

Nody wrote: »

Merkel losing her mandate with a new leader wanting to be strong against UK.

Whether it's Angela Merkel or Martin Schultz Germany will be consistent against the UK. The EU's Brexit position was outlined fairly early.
Perhaps you thought the far right would be a factor?

steddyeddy

The EU to "pave way" for the North of Ireland to enter EU if it reunites with the Republic. From the FT and Reuters. There's the traditional little Englander outrage being spouted in response to this in England. It's similar to the response they had when the EU gave Spain a veto on Gibraltar.

European Union leaders at a Brexit summit on Saturday should give a formal undertaking to embrace the British province of Northern Ireland in the EU if a referendum unites the island, diplomats said on Friday.

Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny has previously asked fellow members of the bloc to acknowledge that Northern Ireland would, like East Germany in 1990, automatically enter the EU in the event of unification with the existing member state, the Irish Republic.

Kenny will ask the other 26 leaders meeting in Brussels to endorse a negotiating plan for Britain's withdrawal to give a political endorsement to what Irish and EU legal experts say is the position in international law of such territorial changes.

Sam Russell

Of course, who pays the €10 billion that the Westminster crowd pay net into NI? If it is the EU then that is one story but if it is us, then maybe a different story.

The EU will only outlining the situation should such an unlikely event occur.

Enda still has not resigned and been replaced despite being back from the brink USA for some time.

demfad

Sam Russell wrote: »

Of course, who pays the €10 billion that the Westminster crowd pay net into NI? If it is the EU then that is one story but if it is us, then maybe a different story.

The EU will only outlining the situation should such an unlikely event occur.

Enda still has not resigned and been replaced despite being back from the brink USA for some time.

Do you mean short, medium or long term?

For example, long term you would expect the 6 counties to perform as well as or outperform average Irish GDP judging by pre-partition economic performance there.
NI is severely hampered by it's position outside the ROI but still offshore to GB. This will deteriorate under Brexit.
The deficit with GB is best viewed as a reason that NI is more sustainable in ROI long term, but an obvious impediment to it short term.
Caveat: Im posting generally here, specific details of quality of public service etc. to be ironed out.

catbear

Sam Russell wrote: »

Of course, who pays the ?10 billion that the Westminster crowd pay net into NI?.

I reckon a fair chunk of the unionist community would sooner relocate to Britain than accept the end of partition, it would be the end of their cultural identity after all. That would be a financial and policing saving for us.

Sam Russell

demfad wrote: »

Do you mean short, medium or long term?

For example, long term you would expect the 6 counties to perform as well as or outperform average Irish GDP judging by pre-partition economic performance there.
NI is severely hampered by it's position outside the ROI but still offshore to GB. This will deteriorate under Brexit.
The deficit with GB is best viewed as a reason that NI is more sustainable in ROI long term, but an obvious impediment to it short term.
Caveat: Im posting generally here, specific details of quality of public service etc. to be ironed out.

Short term requires some outside source of funds - no doubt about it.

Medium term could see a reduction of funding, and long term, it will be unlikely that there will be any difference to the rest of Ireland, and possibly they will outperform. It depends on the politics up there and if there is an acceptance of the situation. If the sectarianism dies out, then everything should be better for the whole island. Let us hope anyway, but I think a decade might be needed, and probably a good and prosperous decade.

ambro25

Emmanuel Macron, the centrist candidate for the French presidency, followed up last night by pledging to renegotiate the Franco-British treaty that retains migrants in Calais if he becomes head of state.

<source>

Save for a cataclysm, Macron is France's next head of state.

Do I hear an "Ooops" from the Leave side?

Should that renegotiation happen and result in refugee camps effectively shifting from Calais to Dover (and beyond), then it'll be just another predicted consequence of Brexit become reality.

Nody

demfad wrote: »

Whether it's Angela Merkel or Martin Schultz Germany will be consistent against the UK. The EU's Brexit position was outlined fairly early.
Perhaps you thought the far right would be a factor?

Merkel has been clear but she's also a fair leader as far as I've seen; she'd not set out to punish UK for the sake of punishing UK but will not take Tory BS. Martin on the other hand appears to want to start building his legacy on being "tough" on Brexit and UK and I could easily see him pushing for much harsher terms to show how he's a strong leader and worthy replacement of Merkel as the new leader of the free world so to speak. This would also help set him up for the future internal EU fights on reform, Greece etc. Once again I could be wrong on him as I've not studied him in great detail but that was the initial impression I got on him from reading a few articles on him. Far right party in Germany I think are to early to cause much havoc short of getting a tied parlament without possibility to create a deal ala Belgium but the German parties are to pragmatic to allow that imo.

CrabRevolution

demfad wrote: »

Do you mean short, medium or long term?

For example, long term you would expect the 6 counties to perform as well as or outperform average Irish GDP judging by pre-partition economic performance there.
NI is severely hampered by it's position outside the ROI but still offshore to GB. This will deteriorate under Brexit.
The deficit with GB is best viewed as a reason that NI is more sustainable in ROI long term, but an obvious impediment to it short term.
Caveat: Im posting generally here, specific details of quality of public service etc. to be ironed out.

That's a fairly huge assumption to make. The world has changed unimaginably since the days of Ulster being Ireland's most productive region. By the same logic South Korea should be a poor agrarian state and Saudi Arabia a poor loose crowd of desert clans.

Nody

ambro25 wrote: »

Should that renegotiation happen and result in refugee camps effectively shifting from Calais to Dover (and beyond), then it'll be just another predicted consequence of Brexit become reality.

Honestly I'd look more at the deal on UK border control on French soil; if that goes Lorry transports to UK through France is royally screwed (it's really REALLY bad now as a reference with the controls in place) and would cause all kinds of havoc. I can't really think of any alternate route that would work either (Dutch/Belgium ports are already being used as are south of France etc. and they all would add hundreds of km in cost along with traffic issues).

Water John

Well the Brexiteers wishing for an 'Empire 2', have been told to put it, where the sun doesn't shine, by the ex-colonies.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/apr/28/tories-imperial-vision-post-brexit-trade-deal-disruptive-deluded

Fratton Fred

ambro25 wrote: »

<source>

Save for a cataclysm, Macron is France's next head of state.

Do I hear an "Ooops" from the Leave side?

Should that renegotiation happen and result in refugee camps effectively shifting from Calais to Dover (and beyond), then it'll be just another predicted consequence of Brexit become reality.

so how are all these refugees suddenly going to get to Dover, swim?

Is Macron also considering ignoring the rules of international travel, or will the French just remove all forms of security at the channel tunnel?

Calina

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so how are all these refugees suddenly going to get to Dover, swim?

Is Macron also considering ignoring the rules of international travel, or will the French just remove all forms of security at the channel tunnel?

You might find this hard to believe, but actually, people have tried to swim the channel with a view to getting to the UK. They have not necessarily been successful but we are not talking about people who are content to be keyboard warriors here. We are talking about people who have put a great deal of effort and suffering into achieving their goals. They will not be stopped by you saying "so how will they get to Dover then?"

There are also things like small boats. You are probably underestimating the resourcefulness of people who have already made it to Calais from places that are not a busride from Calais if you cannot consider the possibility that they will find ways of getting to Dover that do not include buying a ticket on the Eurostar or Eurotunnel trains.

In the meantime, I suspect you don't understand the nature of the current agreement between France and the UK with respect to Calais. Effectively border control for the UK takes place in France rather than the UK. The French do not have to support that if they don't want to and the agreement as it exists benefits the UK far more than it benefits France. Perhaps if it were suspended the UK might actually start understanding how much they are losing by being pigheaded idiots as far as their neighbours in the EU are concerned.

who the fug

catbear wrote: »

I reckon a fair chunk of the unionist community would sooner relocate to Britain than accept the end of partition, it would be the end of their cultural identity after all. That would be a financial and policing saving for us.

Sorry they be fixtures, you want the property you take them

Do you seriously think moving 250,000 people plus is ever going to happen.

catbear

who the fug wrote: »

Do you seriously think moving 250,000 people plus is ever going to happen.

You can't force them to stay against their will either.

who the fug

catbear wrote: »

You can't force them to stay against their will either.

So the current status quo is the way forward