Brexit Referendum Superthread

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's when accepting employment, filing tax returns, claiming tax refunds and claiming benefits that people are going to have to establish their status, not at ports and airports.

That's my prediction, anyway.

Totally agree.

There is no way the prime Brexiteers in the Tory right wing want anything to do with ID cards, and it would be a defeat for them if it had to be introduced.

People will pass from South to North unhindered. I suspect much of the goods will also travel freely, but will be controlled by controls at the ferry ports. Goods transitting the UK will use the old 'TIR' system of sealed trucks however, sealed trucks do not stop illegal immigrants at Calais. Controls will be implemented by the shippers, the same way that VAT is enforced.

catbear

The problem though is that in the long run the UK will be a third party with its own immigration regime which may become more liberal with nations that we currently require permits to work in Ireland and the EU.

The UK could become the backdoor and we could end up as the first EU port of call for those asylum seekers that the UK reject.

murphaph

catbear wrote: »

the UK will be a third party with its own immigration regime which may become more liberal with nations that we currently require permits to work in Ireland and the EU.

This, based on everything we have seen before, during and since the referendum is clearly very unlikely.

catbear

murphaph wrote: »

This, based on everything we have seen before, during and since the referendum is clearly very unlikely.

I agree but why don't how talks will progress, a desperate UK may resort to desperate measures.

Sam Russell

catbear wrote: »

I agree but why don't how talks will progress, a desperate UK may resort to desperate measures.

A desperate UK will go for the 'No Deal' option, which will be not good for anyone. No agreement so no planes flying, no goods crossing the channel, and general stasis. Pound will tumble, and there will be trouble in the streets. But let us not get alarmist.

Nate--IRL--

Sam Russell wrote: »

A desperate UK will go for the 'No Deal' option, which will be not good for anyone. No agreement so no planes flying, no goods crossing the channel, and general stasis. Pound will tumble, and there will be trouble in the streets. But let us not get alarmist.

That is not what "No Deal" will involve.

Nate

Sam Russell

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

That is not what "No Deal" will involve.

Nate

Michael O'Leary is of the opinion that 'No Deal' will mean that planes will not fly, but then again, what would he know?

Nate--IRL--

Sam Russell wrote: »

Michael O'Leary is of the opinion that 'No Deal' will mean that planes will not fly, but then again, what would he know?

How to get free advertising.

Nate

Sam Russell

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

How to get free advertising.

Nate

True, he is very good at that, but he has said that flights out of the UK will be cut back following Brexit. He has planes to fill.

flatty

Cut back is slightly different to no fly.
In any case, I still hold a faint hope that May might put the final deal, it's pros and cons, honestly and openly to the country.
Hard brexit means almost inevitably Scotland will leave, NI likely will leave also (which is an inevitability over time in any case). You may actually see England devolving itself from Wales.
I expect the UK economy to get hit by 20% or so. The pound will tumble, , living standards will fall quite markedly. The city of London will atrophy. Hard rain will fall. The Tories will pay the price as soon as labour move even vaguely to the centre.
But, and there is only one but, if the EU want to get 50 or 60 billion in a divorce settlement, they will have to offer something in return. What that something is remains to be seen.
Frat ton Fred, or whoever he is, is clearly a glass quarter full kind of guy. The UK will suffer far more than the EU in this.
I find peregrinus to be the most informative and reasoned poster on here, and enjoy his informative and logical thoughts on this mess.
I think that the EU should leave the door ajar to the UK, as in half a generation, I can see a sea change in UK domestic thinking. The young people In the UK are rightly seething at the unfairness of everything as they have been screwed to the wall by the baby boomers
Looking from a skewed angle, the UK imports far more from the EU than it exports to the EU. They use this as a comfort blanket. What they seem to miss, is that EU exports to the UK are spread across multiple countries, so any pain is spread thin. In the UK it is all concentrated.
I still think that the likely outcome is so disastrous for the UK, that there may be some wriggling yet to be done. This would be best served by the talking heads in the EU being measured and calm, and not offending the UK gratuitously , ie, take Angela merkels lead. If junker had kept his trap shut, brexit might never have got over the line. He annoyed an awful lot of people.

catbear

I reckon Nate is right that no deal is the only practical outcome, everything gets grandfathered, planes keep flying, people and business keep moving etc...

The whole hard brexit is just empty posturing but the question is how far will they take it and when will the populace accept its reversal without losing face.

The current election has bought the bluffers some more time but eventually they'll have to deliver.

I won't be surprised if there's more than one election before 2022.

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

Michael O'Leary is of the opinion that 'No Deal' will mean that planes will not fly, but then again, what would he know?

He isn't wrong, though it would take monumentally stupid politicians to not agree to any deal on any of the shared EU bodies that the UK currently participate in.

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

He isn't wrong, though it would take monumentally stupid politicians to not agree to any deal on any of the shared EU bodies that the UK currently participate in.

When it comes to stupidity, politicians are in there with quite a head start on mere mortals.

I think the EU should announce the timetable for the move of the EU Medicine Board and the European Banking Authority, with a clear date for their move from the UK. This will be a clear show of intent by the EU, and will occur whatever the result of the Brexit negotiations. (Assuming the the 'No Deal' of T May means they still leave).

An Ciarraioch

YouGov poll on whether UK should remain in Single Market:

Should 51%
Should not 26%

steddyeddy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

YouGov poll on whether UK should remain in Single Market:

Should 51%
Should not 26%

It's not up to them at this stage.

Sam Russell

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

YouGov poll on whether UK should remain in Single Market:

Should 51%
Should not 26%

If Labour go after the 'Single Market' angle, they could climb back. They can portray TM as a hard brexiteer, and her [ 'No Deal' is better than the 'Single Market'.] message. Particularly in Sunderland and other areas that might see what is left of British industry moving out.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

If Labour go after the 'Single Market' angle, they could climb back. They can portray TM as a hard brexiteer, and her [ 'No Deal' is better than the 'Single Market'.] message. Particularly in Sunderland and other areas that might see what is left of British industry moving out.

The Lib Dems have been pushing this quite hard for some time now. Corbyn seems unlikely to be able to make up for lost ground. Of course, the other issue is that single market membership comes with the ECJ, regulation and free movement.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The Lib Dems have been pushing this quite hard for some time now. Corbyn seems unlikely to be able to make up for lost ground. Of course, the other issue is that single market membership comes with the ECJ, regulation and free movement.

It is amazing how quickly people can cotton to BS. TM is full of it, and is sticking to the script and staying on message. It only takes a little to burst a balloon - look what happened to Enda and 'Keep the recovery going' only for 50% of the electorate the recovery had not happened.

Corbyn could surprise yet. He talks quietly but could be listened to, but I am not betting on him.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is amazing how quickly people can cotton to BS. TM is full of it, and is sticking to the script and staying on message. It only takes a little to burst a balloon - look what happened to Enda and 'Keep the recovery going' only for 50% of the electorate the recovery had not happened.

Of course. One of the main reasons for triggering A50 and then calling a referendum would be that this can be glossed over.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Corbyn could surprise yet. He talks quietly but could be listened to, but I am not betting on him.

To be honest, I'd say the main support they'll get will be the traditional Labour voters who'll not countenance voting for anyone else. May's goal has been open for some time now and Corbyn has failed to notice, much less score.

joeysoap

Sam Russell wrote: »

If Labour go after the 'Single Market' angle, they could climb back. They can portray TM as a hard brexiteer, and her [ 'No Deal' is better than the 'Single Market'.] message. Particularly in Sunderland and other areas that might see what is left of British industry moving out.

The Labour Party don't know what year this is, never mind having a strategy. First election where you don't have to promise anybody anything to get elected. A football friend when he was asked how him team played replied " we were lucky to get nothing". I think that sums up labours chances in this election. The Lib Dems have a clear strategy, its up to remainers to vote for them otherwise they are not really remainers.

steddyeddy

May surprised me with her lack of interviewing skills. She's not the "strong and stable leader" she advises the voters to elect. She couldn't stand by a single one of her party policies.

Water John

She doesn't want to do leaders debate any way. Her bluff should be called on that and just put an empty chair there and let the other six leaders do it.

catbear

May doesn't have to promise anything to the public because this election is about pillaging Labour under Corbyn and reclaiming tory voters from UKip. It really is just a mopping up operation and a convenient distraction from dealing with real problems.

joeysoap

catbear wrote: »

May doesn't have to promise anything to the public because this election is about pillaging Labour under Corbyn and reclaiming tory voters from UKip. It really is just a mopping up operation and a convenient distraction from dealing with real problems.

That's the strategy but if this is to believed then the Tories and Brexiters can be challenged, but not by the Labour Party. If there Really is a majority now wishing to remain they have a simple choice. Vote Lib Dem.

YouGov poll on whether UK should remain in Single Market:

Should 51%
Should not 26%

And if the Shinners are serious then they should either take their seats or make a pack with someone who will i.e. SDLP who will use their mandate on brexit

PopePalpatine

steddyeddy wrote: »

May surprised me with her lack of interviewing skills. She's not the "strong and stable leader" she advises the voters to elect. She couldn't stand by a single one of her party policies.

I expect the likes of Rothermere and Dacre to paint that as, "At least she's not a EuroCommie!" or whatever they use to herd their readers into voting for May.

Professor Moriarty

Corbyn is unelectable. That is May's greatest quality.

whatstherush

The dinner went well anyhoo :-)
https://m.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/04/30/the-uk-government-is-completely-deluded-about-brexit/?s=ForeignAffairs

A Dub in Glasgo

This would be comical if it was not so serious. I cannot believe the delusions of grandeur from the Tories and to think that next month the Tories will get a whopping overall majority in the UK Parliament

https://twitter.com/i/moments/858943560594235393

Nody

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

This would be comical if it was not so serious. I cannot believe the delusions of grandeur from the Tories and to think that next month the Tories will get a whopping overall majority in the UK Parliament

https://twitter.com/i/moments/858943560594235393

I never had high regards or hopes for May's political ability but if that's even close to true she appears to lack even a fundamental grasp of how EU works today.

Bit cynical

Predictions:

1. Tories elected with increased share of seats in Parliament. Labour lose significant share of seats. Lib Dems also suffer loss of seats but less so proportionately than Labour.

2. Negotiations begin but get bogged down over exit terms vs future relationship and trade with Theresa May insisting that trade talks proceed in parallel with other issues.

3. Negotiations need to conclude six months prior to the end of the two year period in order to give time for the member states' parliaments to ratify the agreement. However this deadline passes without agreement.

4. Talks continue without agreement. Ireland becomes worried about trade and border issues.

5. The two year deadline passes without agreement. The UK leaves the EU but retains membership of the EEA. The UK does not trigger Article 127 of the EEA agreement but applies for membership of EFTA. This continued membership of the EEA is presented to the public as an "interim measure" in order to placate Tory hardliners.