Brexit Referendum Superthread

Water John

Hopefully the Lib Dems actually do better. They have focused on those who voted remain with a clear message.
Any one who voted to remain and who voted Tory in the past have some thinking to do.

The EU have said they want significant progress on the payment terms before exit talks. Well if you wanted to get out of a contract, you'd have to buy your way out.

Peregrinus

The Liberal Democrats can hardly suffer a loss of seats. As matters stand, the Lib Dems entire House of Commons contingent can all fit into a Renault Espace.

They are currently polling in the region of 10-13% nationally, depending on which poll you go by. That's not very high, but it's significantly higher than the 7.9% they scored in the 2015 general election. Barring a disaster, they're much more likely to gain seats than to lose them.

ancapailldorcha

Peregrinus wrote: »

The Liberal Democrats can hardly suffer a loss of seats. As matters stand, the Lib Dems entire House of Commons contingent can all fit into a Renault Espace.

They are currently polling in the region of 10-13% nationally, depending on which poll you go by. That's not very high, but it's significantly higher than the 7.9% they scored in the 2015 general election. Barring a disaster, they're much more likely to gain seats than to lose them.

Do you think a repeat of 2010 could be on the cards due to Labour being inept (rather than toxic) and the Tories being divided?

Leonard Hofstadter

Water John wrote: »

She doesn't want to do leaders debate any way. Her bluff should be called on that and just put an empty chair there and let the other six leaders do it.

Corbyn is only agreeing to debates if May does. Once again the Labour party is doing what it does best - snapping defeat from the jaws of victory.

And, is anyone really surprised that she won't do debates? The Andrew Marr interviews illustrate perfectly why she's running scared - not able to think on her feet.

Peregrinus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Do you think a repeat of 2010 could be on the cards due to Labour being inept (rather than toxic) and the Tories being divided?

I wish! But no, the key difference is that in 2010 the Lib Dems got 23% of the vote and 57 seats, giving them the balance of power as between Labour and the Tories. That ain't gonna happen this time.

ancapailldorcha

Peregrinus wrote: »

I wish! But no, the key difference is that in 2010 the Lib Dems got 23% of the vote and 57 seats, giving them the balance of power as between Labour and the Tories. That ain't gonna happen this time.

Agreed.

I'll reiterate that I think the best realistic result is that May wins enough of a majority that she won't have to cater to her Euroskeptics the way that David Cameron felt he had to. Remember, he wasn't supposed to actually win in 2015 and definitely not by such a small majority.

murphaph

captainspeed wrote: »

Corbyn is only agreeing to debates if May does. Once again the Labour party is doing what it does best - snapping defeat from the jaws of victory.

And, is anyone really surprised that she won't do debates? The Andrew Marr interviews illustrate perfectly why she's running scared - not able to think on her feet.

She's not even able to think off her feet. She does not seem to understand that the EU has the upper hand as it's 10 times bigger than the UK. This will not change.

This won't end well for Ireland, at least not in the short to medium term. We are exporting 14% of our exports to the UK but agri-food dominates and tariffs on meat etc. are almost punitive.

Water John

Well Tesco have trialled Argentinian beef on their 'fresh' meat counter in 4 stores.

catbear

murphaph wrote: »

This won't end well for Ireland, at least not in the short to medium term. We are exporting 14% of our exports to the UK but agri-food dominates and tariffs on meat etc. are almost punitive.

But in the long term its far better that our exposure to the UK be reduced and our global trade increase. Besides as nz venison and wine producer's are reporting their trade with the UK has already declined with the weakened £.

murphaph

catbear wrote: »

But in the long term its far better that our exposure to the UK be reduced and our global trade increase. Besides as nz venison and wine producer's are reporting their trade with the UK has already declined with the weakened £.

Of course in the long term it makes sense to be less dependent on trade with a country that imposes high tariffs on our food exports but that trade needs to be replaced and as the Brexiteers will discover, that doesn't happen overnight. It would be better all round if they stayed in the EEA and EFTA and accepted free movement of labour, but this government won't.

catbear

Water John wrote: »

Well Tesco have trialled Argentinian beef on their 'fresh' meat counter in 4 stores.

Interesting. That is one of the most frightening things about brexit is the potential falloff in standards when 95% of the vets certifying the UK meat business are EU citizens, British vets prefer to deal with the cuddly pet stuff.

When I was traveling in steak country in South America Irish certified beef was a premium quality product and commanded high prices. The first whiff of contamination like CJD or foot and mouth and Brits will be wanting certifiable EU meat like the Chinese wanted uncontaminated baby formula.

joeysoap

Water John wrote: »

Well Tesco have trialled Argentinian beef on their 'fresh' meat counter in 4 stores.

In UK?

LaChatteGitane

Ah, well now. Belgian supermarkets stock Irish steak and it is well received.
Time to replace the New Zealand lamb over there with Irish lamb, I'd say.

An Ciarraioch

catbear wrote: »

Interesting. That is one of the most frightening things about brexit is the potential falloff in standards when 95% of the vets certifying the UK meat business are EU citizens, British vets prefer to deal with the cuddly pet stuff.

When I was traveling in steak country in South America Irish certified beef was a premium quality product and commanded high prices. The first whiff of contamination like CJD or foot and mouth and Brits will be wanting certifiable EU meat like the Chinese wanted uncontaminated baby formula.

No food safety standards akin to EU labels, either:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_beef#Recent_years

Ted_YNWA

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

This would be comical if it was not so serious. I cannot believe the delusions of grandeur from the Tories and to think that next month the Tories will get a whopping overall majority in the UK Parliament

https://twitter.com/i/moments/858943560594235393

Do they really think the EU cares if they have a 1 seat majority or a 100 seat one.

An Ciarraioch

https://mobile.twitter.com/TonyParsonsUK/status/858995006648066049

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/858440406941528064

The tweets speak for themselves!

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/TonyParsonsUK/status/858995006648066049

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/858440406941528064

The tweets speak for themselves!

One of the replies sums it up:

Mate, perhaps we need to stop viewing 2017 through the prism of 1945. Time has moved on. Just a thought...

Water John

It's six branches of Tesco, link.

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/tesco-in-hot-water-with-uk-farmers-over-imported-beef/

BlitzKrieg

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/TonyParsonsUK/status/858995006648066049

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/858440406941528064

The tweets speak for themselves!

The mad British hate boner for Junker is made all the sweeter by the fact that they got him elected in the first place by abstaining in the election

he ended up being elected by 30 seats over his nearest rival. The UK holds 73 seats

UKIP alone took 24 seats

Tories another 19

Both parties abstained during the election so their seats did sweet nothing

Only the lib dem and Labour seats voted and both voted against Junker.


The British are all for tactical voting for the best results in their general elections (god knows my facebook feed has been spammed with people telling me who I need to vote for in my area to block the tories) But never seem to even consider it any other time and instead cry that they have no influence in the EU.

Water John

Saw that Davis guy on Question Time one night. Arrogant , sneering, gobs***e, would be my analysis.
Don't think he would have the guile for negotiations.

Peregrinus

Water John wrote: »

Saw that Davis guy on Question Time one night. Arrogant , sneering, gobs***e, would be my analysis.
Don't think he would have the guile for negotiations.

Perhaps his presenting himself as an arrogant sneering gob***te is just an example of his guile at work?

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

When it comes to stupidity, politicians are in there with quite a head start on mere mortals.

I think the EU should announce the timetable for the move of the EU Medicine Board and the European Banking Authority, with a clear date for their move from the UK. This will be a clear show of intent by the EU, and will occur whatever the result of the Brexit negotiations. (Assuming the the 'No Deal' of T May means they still leave).

If the story about Theresa May and her Brexit dinner turns out to be true its so nice of her to confirm your view here. :P Do you think the leaders of some countries are having a competition to see who can outdo each other? We have Duterte confessing to murder and Trump ("hold my beer") then inviting him to the White House and praising Kim Jong Un.

Theresa May with her appalling public appearances where it seems she cannot do anything but repeat party lines and her Brexit dinner and then Jeremy Corbyn ("don't worry Theresa, I will help you out") who is given the gift of May not wanting to debate and instead of using it to spread his message as many people as possible refusing to debate if she isn't there. Even if he doesn't think people will watch the debates, you know they will watch the start to see if she will make an appearance and he has the chance to grab the attention of the people.

Politicians are stupid as mud, but who elected them to their seats of power?

ambro25

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The same Gallic shrug that let terrorists in to the Bataclan?

That's so cretinous it doesn't deserve any sort of constructive reply.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Incidentally, how will the eu feel about France having an unpoliced border in to the schengen area?

Incidentially, we were talking about people exiting the Schengen area, towards the UK.

Customs are two-way traffic devices, which is why I queried (facetiously) whether you might have travelled through a UK port/the Chunnel terminal and then back through the French side in recent years...there's still no industrial x-raying of boarding vehicles and no 30ft tall, razor-wire topped steel mesh fence on the UK side of the Chunnel: they're all on the French side, at the UK's request and partial expense, complete with entry booths staffed by UK border agency people, thanks to the Le Touquet agreements (long superseding the v1.0 Sangatte agreements of old), to keep illegals from making their way towards the UK. Their keeping out is what is causing all the camps à la Jungle to endure on the French side.

You're smart enough, I'm sure I don't need to explain further what effects binning these agreements would have: x-rays, fences, entry booths <etc.> repatriated to the UK side...with the UK left to deal with whoever they manage catch (and don't)

demfad

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Agreed.

I'll reiterate that I think the best realistic result is that May wins enough of a majority that she won't have to cater to her Euroskeptics the way that David Cameron felt he had to. Remember, he wasn't supposed to actually win in 2015 and definitely not by such a small majority.

The talks are in danger of heading towards disaster: a messy Brexit with no agreement. With that liklihood the best result is a weak Majority Tory Gov (or Labour/LibDem Gov).

That way they can throw the agreement out and revoke A50.
From the May/Juncker dinner it is clear that May cannot deliver the Brexit she has promised. Her problem now is forcing a bad deal through parliament. Only a big majority allows her to do that.

Water John

As they get into negotiations, the mess will be quite obvious, except most British papers will try and spin it to their readers.

seamus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/TonyParsonsUK/status/858995006648066049

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/858440406941528064

The tweets speak for themselves!

What makes it funny is that Leave.EU totally missed the irony of them celebrating the success of a British athlete of Nigerian & Irish descent.

Actual proof of "what has immigration ever done for us" and the anti-immigration groups are hoisting him on their shoulders as "pure Britishness".

Fratton Fred

ambro25 wrote: »

That's so cretinous it doesn't deserve any sort of constructive reply.
Incidentially, we were talking about people exiting the Schengen area, towards the UK.

Customs are two-way traffic devices, which is why I queried (facetiously) whether you might have travelled through a UK port/the Chunnel terminal and then back through the French side in recent years...there's still no industrial x-raying of boarding vehicles and no 30ft tall, razor-wire topped steel mesh fence on the UK side of the Chunnel: they're all on the French side, at the UK's request and partial expense, complete with entry booths staffed by UK border agency people, thanks to the Le Touquet agreements (long superseding the v1.0 Sangatte agreements of old), to keep illegals from making their way towards the UK. Their keeping out is what is causing all the camps à la Jungle to endure on the French side.

You're smart enough, I'm sure I don't need to explain further what effects binning these agreements would have: x-rays, fences, entry booths <etc.> repatriated to the UK side...with the UK left to deal with whoever they manage catch (and don't)

so the French, who as I am sure you've heard are in the midst of a terrorism crisis, will just drop security at an extremely high risk facility?

that's not going to happen, is it, gallic shrug or not?

It does make you wonder, if the UK is such a horrible place, why so many refugees don't ask for asylum in France though.

ancapailldorcha

Water John wrote: »

Saw that Davis guy on Question Time one night. Arrogant , sneering, gobs***e, would be my analysis.
Don't think he would have the guile for negotiations.

Ditch the name calling please.

ambro25

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so the French, who as I am sure you've heard are in the midst of a terrorism crisis, will just drop security at an extremely high risk facility?

What security effort do you think needs to be applied to 'risk people' leaving a country?

They're a risk to the destination country (e.g. UK, coming from France and/or Belgium), not the country they exit (e.g. France, in context).

That's why screening at arrival in the destination country, rather than at boarding in the departure country, has always been the default, bog-standard practice between third party countries not linked by any bilateral (e.g. Sangatte/Le Touquet) or multilateral (e.g. EU) travel/visa agreements.

Either you don't (or refuse to-) get an elementary aspect of border function and work inherent to any and every border there's ever been, which is to control who and what comes into the country most of all, relative to who and what gets out...or you are strawmanning for all you're worth.

So which is it?

Fratton Fred wrote: »

that's not going to happen, is it, gallic shrug or not?

Indeed not: like UK border types repatriated to the UK, French border types currently in Folkestone and London will be repatriated to France. Their job will be the exact same: screen people coming into France.

If anything, French customs will probably keep the x-ray and extra booths in place exactly where they are, and re-task them to screen vehicles incoming from Britain (unlike currently, where they just drive straight off the Shuttle/ferries onto the A26, after a passport glance (sometimes, not every time) and, very rarely, a glance in the open boot and a car window swab for explosives in Folkestone before boarding).

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It does make you wonder, if the UK is such a horrible place, why so many refugees don't ask for asylum in France though.

Because France processes them top to bottom with headshots and other biometrics, makes them carry controllable-on-sight paperwork at all times (legal requirement), 'enjoys' a somewhat-less-than-multiculturally-friendly police force long criticised for non-trivial racial prejudice in respect of stopping-and-controlling that paperwork, and its FISC and Inspection du Travail make it a world-ending nightmare for employers of any sort and walk of business life to use illegals. To say nothing of the lingo block.

Pragmatically, it's pretty hard to exist socio-economically as an illegal in France, relative to ultraliberal (and relatively police-free) Britain.

Who said the UK is a horrible place anyway? To legal EU immigrants, legal non-EU immigrants and illegals in Calais <and elsewhere>, it was the land of Oz chock-full of money, free houses, grazing unicorns and streets paved of gold until June 2016 at least. But the global brand has taken a bit of a black eye since, so you might be glad to hear numbers (of legals at least) are finally free-falling (inasmuch as you were ever bothered about immigrashun).

Chips Lovell

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so the French, who as I am sure you've heard are in the midst of a terrorism crisis, will just drop security at an extremely high risk facility?

Macron hasn't said he's going to drop border security, simply that he'd consider trying to get out of the Le Touquet treaty, which permits UK border checkpoints on French territory and visa versa. If the treaty is abandoned, it simply goes back to the old way of doing things, i.e. border control is when you arrive in the UK (or France if going the other way).