Brexit Referendum Superthread

Fratton Fred · 03-05-2017 12:01pm

Water John wrote: »

It's just a bit of shadow boxing before getting down to business.
Mainly about giving UK a dose of reality.

You see, that is exactly it. What have the eu said that makes you think this, or is it simply a case of the eu said it, so it must be true?

I believe the SNP called it project fear, did they not?

Water John · 03-05-2017 12:04pm

Well UK politicians have being going on with, 'everything will be rosy in the garden' nonsense.
They have a little bubble that's about to come up against some cold reality.

Professor Moriarty · 03-05-2017 12:09pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I guess they could have issued the "Leak" in several different languages, to several different agencies, but then that would have been a press release, not a leak.

This was apparent direct quotes from a private meeting. This was a strategic leak, that is pretty obvious and the use of terms such as "Deluded" only serve to undermine the other party.

Maybe the eu is scared and is resorting to dirty tactics. Who knows.

Do you realise how patient other countries have been with Britain since the referendum? How much jingoistic horsesh1t has been accommodated? For the past 10 months, remarkable restraint has been shown. The EU has waited quietly and politely while the Tory Little Englanders' bombastic craw thumping played out across a very biased media.

Do you think that the other 27 countries were blind to the insults and racism? Do you have any idea how Britain's decision to leave, and the manner in which it is leaving, has been interpreted across Europe? Whatever about the damage to Britain leaving the EU, the Tories have squandered whatever goodwill Britain had in the first place.

Dirty tactics? You're having a laugh.

Fratton Fred · 03-05-2017 12:13pm

Water John wrote: »

Well UK politicians have being going on with, 'everything will be rosy in the garden' nonsense.
They have a little bubble that's about to come up against some cold reality.

which is what?

Let's face it, the eu is **** scared that the UK will make a success of being outside the eu. If they do, what is the point?

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Do you realise how patient other countries have been with Britain since the referendum? How much jingoistic horsesh1t has been accommodated? For the past 10 months, remarkable restraint has been shown. The EU has waited quietly and politely while the Tory Little Englanders' bombastic craw thumping played out across a very biased media.

Do you think that the other 27 countries were blind to the insults and racism? Do you have any idea how Britain's decision to leave, and the manner in which it is leaving, has been interpreted across Europe? Whatever about the damage to Britain leaving the EU, the Tories have squandered whatever goodwill Britain had in the first place.

Dirty tactics? You're having a laugh.

I really wish terms like "Tory little Englander" would be banned from this forum, it really takes away sensible debate.:rolleyes:

Of course, the above is just your opinion, unless you can give some evidence to support the eu's impatience and Britain squandering any good will.

whatstherush · 03-05-2017 12:18pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

which is what?

Let's face it, the eu is **** scared that the UK will make a success of being outside the eu. If they do, what is the point?

Let's face it, the UK wants all the benefits of the EU but none of the costs. If they do, what is the point?

Sam Russell · 03-05-2017 12:18pm

The EU, in most cases, accept the democratic will of the people electing their government. There was some reaction to Greece, but on the whole they accept the government elected. Belusconi for example was accepted. Most times, allowances are made for a particular countries need, and many times the UK have made demands which were acceded to, even if they were outrageous.

I think if they come to their senses and wish to withdraw A50, they will have lost much good will that many of the opt-outs will be revoked as a condition of re-entry to the EU.

ambro25 · 03-05-2017 12:18pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

its an echo chamber. Say the right things, no one complains. Disagree with any points and you are considered the devil's spawn.

I'd like to think I was a bit more objective and constructive than what you paint here, but whatever.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Currently, you do Schengen checks in London, correct? you then travel to Lille or wherever and you can just jump on the next train to anywhere you like within the Schengen zone, correct?

Correct, because Le Touquet. And reciprocally when boarding in Paris to travel to London.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Remove the juxtaposed controls and then everyone arriving at Lille, Paris, Brussels, Marseille or wherever will have to go through Schengen controls somewhere along the way, correct? By which time, of course, those people are already in the country and the problem of the French.

Correct, and reciprocally for the UK (which was my original point, insofar as it pertains to illegals currently kept Calais-side due to the said juxtaposed controls, but <relatively> free to cross over to the UK under that new 'removed juxtaposed controls' context - and which point you have been disputing since).

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So, effectively, the current advantage of hopping off at Lille and waiting for the next SNCF train will be gone.

Correct, and reciprocally when hopping off at St Pancras and waiting for the next [Virgin/East Midlands/Arriva/<...>].

A bit of convenience removed, but no duplication.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

You've then got the added hassle of driving off le shuttle and rather than just hitting the motorway, joining a queue with the hundreds of other motorists who have disembarked the train to go through Schengen checks. as opposed to doing all of these on Folkstone prior to getting on the train.

Correct. Save French passport control in Folkestone, do it on arrival in Coquelles. And reciprocally, save Brit passport control in Coquelles, do it in Folkestone on arrival.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It isn't reducing the load for anyone, because exit checks have to be carried out in both countries, it is just doubling the effort and adding delays.

Who said it would be "reducing the load"? Not me, that is for sure.

And no, it is not 'doubling the effort', for reason many times explained before, and again above: it's just relocating the same check to the 'correct' side of the border (in old money terms), in the absence of a (repudiated, renegotiated, <...>) agreement.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It's not going to happen, it works fine at the moment and there will be no need to change it. it is a simple piece of vote grabbing by Macron.

You are perfectly entitled to that opinion. As I am entitled to criticise it.

The fact of the matter however, is that absent participation of the UK to the Customs Union, there shall be a hard customs for goods crossing either way, juxtaposed controls for passengers or not: re-establishing that hard border for goods presents synergistic opportunities for staffing and structural spending requirements on re-establishing 'old money' controls for passengers. This is all the pragmatist's view, and I'll refer you back to my earlier comments about Macron's political angle, play and gains from taking an axe, blunted or not, to Le Touquet.

My closing advice to the UK team on that sub-topic is, ignore (or downplay, same-o) those risks at your peril.

Professor Moriarty · 03-05-2017 12:23pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I really wish terms like "Tory little Englander" would be banned from this forum, it really takes away sensible debate.:rolleyes:

Of course, the above is just your opinion, unless you can give some evidence to support the eu's impatience and Britain squandering any good will.

Unfortunately, it's the Tory Little Englanders that got Britain into this mess. But look, if you have an issue with that term, then let's use a Prime Minister's - John Major - term. The bastards have got Britain into this mess. Actually, that sounds better - let's stick with Tory bastards.

If you think that the EU isn't impatient and that Britain hasn't squandered whatever goodwill it had left prior to the referendum then, out of idle curiosity, what is the weather like on your planet?

Fratton Fred · 03-05-2017 12:26pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Unfortunately, it's the Tory Little Englanders that got Britain into this mess. But look, if you have an issue with that term, then let's use a Prime Minister's - John Major - term. The bastards have got Britain into this mess. Actually, that sounds better - let's stick with Tory bastards.

If you think that the EU isn't impatient and that Britain hasn't squandered whatever goodwill it had left prior to the referendum then, out of idle curiosity, what is the weather like on your planet?

The Tory little Englanders in Sunderland, or Bradford?

Bastards

Professor Moriarty · 03-05-2017 12:28pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The Tory little Englanders in Sunderland, or Bradford?

Bastards

The Tories and the Tory press deceived those people and continue to do so.

They are, as you say, bastards.

Rightwing · 03-05-2017 12:32pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Unfortunately, it's the Tory Little Englanders that got Britain into this mess. But look, if you have an issue with that term, then let's use a Prime Minister's - John Major - term. The bastards have got Britain into this mess. Actually, that sounds better - let's stick with Tory bastards.

If you think that the EU isn't impatient and that Britain hasn't squandered whatever goodwill it had left prior to the referendum then, out of idle curiosity, what is the weather like on your planet?

There isn't any goodwill on behalf the EU. There can't be. They have said it themselves, 'brexit can't be a success'. They have to be nasty. They will try and destroy them and send a clear signal to others. UK in my opinion erred with Brexit, but now they need to forget talks and go.

joeysoap · 03-05-2017 12:32pm

Before we joined the EU (eec) Belfast trains stopped in Dundalk. Customs 'walked' the train mostly looking for electrical goods, only when they disembarked were Dundalk passengers allowed on board. Only took a few mins. Admiddedly they weren't checking for immigrants or checking ID's.

I would imaging before boarding that the onus will be on the channel tunnel to check passports (as at airports now)and there will be heavy fines if they allow passengers to board without proper documents. Building a platform in France to allow passport control to board the train and check passports before allowing the train to proceed is probably the simplest solution. announcement on the train to have passports ready for checking. 4 officers with handheld scanners could do a train in 15 mins. External EU border sorted. If anyone doesn't have the correct documents - put on the next train back to the Uk. Leaving the EU the British authorities could do the same or wait until the train reaches Folkestone and do a full passport check there. Hauliers could have the same passport arrangements as say Aer Lingus staff have when entering the us. (It's a long form, attached to the passport which a US Border officer signs every time). To get this crew have to apply to the US embassy in Dublin every two years.)

The more I think about it the more I realise that the UK didn't give this any real thought. David Dimbleby laughing at the lady who voted because she didn't want straight bananas indeed. But such voters might have swung the vote.

Not unsimilar to Irish Water it's a cluster****.

Professor Moriarty · 03-05-2017 12:37pm

Rightwing wrote: »

There isn't any goodwill on behalf the EU. There can't be. They have said it themselves, 'brexit can't be a success'. They have to be nasty. They will try and destroy them and send a clear signal to others. UK in my opinion erred with Brexit, but now they need to forget talks and go.

Correct. It has been said by Merkel, Hollande, Juncker and Bernier. Britain cannot and will not be better off outside the EU than inside. Nothing personal, but it has to be painful. May's indignation is pointless - the Tory Little Englanders should have realised that before the referendum. But it will be portrayed in the Tory press as the evil EU not playing cricket.

Jaggo · 03-05-2017 12:46pm

I think interfere is too hard a word but I would think the eu had to get a statement in. The timing is important.
If the GE campaign goes along the same lines as almost every other election people will be making undeliverable, nationalistic promises. This would be pretty disastrous for the negotiations. It is better for the eu to get this out there now before the campaign gets off the ground then by commenting on how unrealistic the election promises are closer to the election date.

Also I think the UK gov are ill prepared and very, very weak as to what they can get from these negotiations.

Chips Lovell · 03-05-2017 12:49pm

I think there's possibly two dynamics at play here. The first is the widespread misapprehension (even among some Remain voters I've spoken to) that the UK has a much stronger hand than it really has. It's so deeply entrenched that there is a genuine risk that they'll inadvertantly march themselves into a disorderly exit because they think their counterparts in the EU are bluffing.

The second is the election. May needs to increase her majority. Until then she's beholden to the hardcore Brexiteers (and reading the full FAZ account of last weekend's dinner, it seems that Davis played a big role in making it a shambles). We'll probably have to wait till after the election to see if she really is away with the fairies.

Rightwing · 03-05-2017 12:50pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Correct. It has been said by Merkel, Hollande, Juncker and Bernier. Britain cannot and will not be better off outside the EU than inside. Nothing personal, but it has to be painful. May's indignation is pointless - the Tory Little Englanders should have realised that before the referendum. But it will be portrayed in the Tory press as the evil EU not playing cricket.

It's very complex.

The EU won't come out of this well themselves if they adopt too hard a line. Yet, that's exactly what they want to do. The above poster is correct, no thought was put into this. Whether the EU/UK know it, it's a lose-lose situation. Trying to alleviate the damage is what both should be trying, but I wouldn't have much faith in either in that respect.

Fratton Fred · 03-05-2017 12:51pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Tories and the Tory press deceived those people and continue to do so.

They are, as you say, bastards.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2016/jun/18/eu-vote-brexit-working-people-rents-wages

http://www.rmt.org.uk/news/rmt-sets-out-six-key-reasons-for-leaving-the-eu/

http://www.labourleave.org.uk/supporters

yep, Tory little Englanders alright :rolleyes:

Professor Moriarty · 03-05-2017 12:55pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2016/jun/18/eu-vote-brexit-working-people-rents-wages

http://www.rmt.org.uk/news/rmt-sets-out-six-key-reasons-for-leaving-the-eu/

http://www.labourleave.org.uk/supporters

yep, Tory little Englanders alright :rolleyes:

Ok. It was Labour's fault. My bad.

Professor Moriarty · 03-05-2017 12:59pm

Rightwing wrote: »

It's very complex.

The EU won't come out of this well themselves if they adopt too hard a line. Yet, that's exactly what they want to do. The above poster is correct, no thought was put into this. Whether the EU/UK know it, it's a lose-lose situation. Trying to alleviate the damage is what both should be trying, but I wouldn't have much faith in either in that respect.

Well, if the rhetoric from the Tory Little Englanders such as May, Johnson, Fox and Davies is anything to go by, they are heading for a hard Brexit which nobody wants. But I think they'll start off with a game of chicken - "we'll leave with no agreement/go on then" - and then a compromise will be hammered out where the Tories save face and the EU minimises damage to the great project. Hopefully that's what happens as the alternative is very dangerous.

Rightwing · 03-05-2017 1:13pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, if the rhetoric from the Tory Little Englanders such as May, Johnson, Fox and Davies is anything to go by, they are heading for a hard Brexit which nobody wants. But I think they'll start off with a game of chicken - "we'll leave with no agreement/go on then" - and then a compromise will be hammered out where the Tories save face and the EU minimises damage to the great project. Hopefully that's what happens as the alternative is very dangerous.

That could be easier said than done, even if goodwill existed on both sides.

Professor Moriarty · 03-05-2017 1:20pm

Rightwing wrote: »

That could be easier said than done, even if goodwill existed on both sides.

Not much evidence of goodwill. But that's what you get when you believe your own propaganda.

ThisRegard · 03-05-2017 1:24pm

The Guardian today has a commentary piece on how May and her government are talking themselves into a corner with how they think the negotiations may play out. And, probably due to a reflection of the Guardian readership, the comments on the story are broadly in agreement

If the prime minister thinks she she can retain the best bits of the European Union without any of the obligations, she really is living in another galaxy

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/03/theresa-may-cut-and-run-europe-illegal-trade-deal-another-galaxy

Rightwing · 03-05-2017 1:25pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Not much evidence of goodwill. But that's what you get when you believe your own prpoganda.

Rarely will there be goodwill, even less so when there is so much at stake for both parties. Cameron really ought to have thought this through before making rash gambles.

Concessions will have to be made from both EU/UK to avoid serious damage. Hopefully the likes of Juncker/May realise that. So far I'm not optimistic.

demfad · 03-05-2017 1:43pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, if the rhetoric from the Tory Little Englanders such as May, Johnson, Fox and Davies is anything to go by, they are heading for a hard Brexit which nobody wants. But I think they'll start off with a game of chicken - "we'll leave with no agreement/go on then" - and then a compromise will be hammered out where the Tories save face and the EU minimises damage to the great project. Hopefully that's what happens as the alternative is very dangerous.

These are the hurdles the UK must negotiate for Brexit to happen with agreement: Leaving Bill, Citizens rights, Irish border.

If these are not resolved satisfactorily then there will be no subsequent deal negotiated after Brexit until they are.

The fact that the Irish border must be addressed before a deal should be a massive deal for us. It seems to have got lost in the United Ireland angle released at the same time.

Professor Moriarty · 03-05-2017 1:53pm

Rightwing wrote: »

Rarely will there be goodwill, even less so when there is so much at stake for both parties. Cameron really ought to have thought this through before making rash gambles.

Concessions will have to be made from both EU/UK to avoid serious damage. Hopefully the likes of Juncker/May realise that. So far I'm not optimistic.

Cameron had to placate Major's bastards on the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party while trying to negate UKIP's ascendancy. For party and personal political gain, he gambled and lost.

There is still a faint hope that May, the hypocrite, is playing a long game and will use an increased majority - which might mean she will be less in thrall to Major's bastards - to get a soft Brexit.

Rightwing · 03-05-2017 2:03pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Cameron had to placate Major's bastards on the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party while trying to negate UKIP's ascendancy. For party and personal political gain, he gambled and lost.

There is still a faint hope that May, the hypocrite, is playing a long game and will use an increased majority - which might mean she will be less in thrall to Major's bastards - to get a soft Brexit.

Where I give May credit is in the area of citizen rights.

This should be done very easily, as in by June. I'm a bit worried the EU think this is a big deal and will take a long time. It's not Juncker you fcuking idiot. Just give them the same rights as everyone else. :rolleyes:

Nody · 03-05-2017 2:10pm

Rightwing wrote: »

This should be done very easily, as in by June. I'm a bit worried the EU think this is a big deal and will take a long time. It's not Juncker you fcuking idiot. Just give them the same rights as everyone else. :rolleyes:

And on what basis do EU / UK provide healthcare? Pension? Right to work? Right to citizenship? The only deal allowing it is what's being cancelled and May is not pushed to actually spend time to sort things out as shown by her idea of 4 days a month being enough (EU wanted at least 7) and wanting a trade deal in parallel to the rest (and that's before the rumoured deal EU already proposed to May which she refuses to sign on equal rights both ways as now).

Rightwing · 03-05-2017 2:22pm

Nody wrote: »

And on what basis do EU / UK provide healthcare? Pension? Right to work? Right to citizenship? The only deal allowing it is what's being cancelled and May is not pushed to actually spend time to sort things out as shown by her idea of 4 days a month being enough (EU wanted at least 7) and wanting a trade deal in parallel to the rest (and that's before the rumoured deal EU already proposed to May which she refuses to sign on equal rights both ways as now).

If you are living/working in the country UK/EU for say 2/3/4 years etc. Give them all the rights the UK/EU citizens have. No distinction must be made between citizens.

From her perspective it makes sense to have the trade deal in parallel, because the UK could yield to all the EU demands and then get a desperate trade deal as well.

Nody · 03-05-2017 2:28pm

Rightwing wrote: »

If you are living/working in the country UK/EU for say 2/3/4 years etc. Give them all the rights the UK/EU citizens have. No distinction must be made between citizens.

That has already been proposed by EU; May and her government however has not agreed to it.

Rightwing · 03-05-2017 2:31pm

Nody wrote: »

That has already been proposed by EU; May and her government however has not agreed to it.

Well she should. And then they have 1 big thing done. No need for months to be dragging on. Even if no deal is reached, out of decency this should be agreed upon.

Brexit Referendum Superthread

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