Brexit Referendum Superthread

road_high

Maryanne40 wrote: »

They're going....

Look at how the pound has dropped.....

Like a stone apparently according to Sky News.

Inquitus

Sand wrote: »

They've only declared 5 constituencies out of 382. Lets not extrapolate too much on too little.

Worrying early but not necessarily meaningful trends.

JinkyJackson

Rich people are going to make a lot of money buying cheap pounds tonight

radharc

Betfair is by far the best indicator of the likely result, 'Remain' has drifted from a 94% chance to a 66% shot since polling closed.

Harry Angstrom

Newcastle and Sunderland strong leave vote. Forget about Scotland and Gibraltar.
England is where this is going to be won or lost.

Sand

road_high wrote: »

Like a stone apparently according to Sky News.

Hmm, the people of Sunderland and Newcastle just made everyone in the UK 5% poorer in a few minutes.

Akrasia

JinkyJackson wrote: »

Rich people are going to make a lot of money buying cheap pounds tonight

The euro will fall tomorrow if Britain leaves.

Buy dollars

JinkyJackson

Akrasia wrote:

The euro will fall tomorrow if Britain leaves.

Britain won't leave, that's my point.

Francie Barrett

radharc wrote: »

Betfair is by far the best indicator of the likely result, 'Remain' has drifted from a 94% chance to a 66% shot since polling closed.

The news reports are hopelessly behind Betfair.

sink

£ = $1.45 now 5 cent drop in 10 mins

Francie Barrett

Odds have come back in again from 3/5 to 2/5.

BlitzKrieg

Polo_Mint wrote: »

Can Anyone tell me the difference between the European Council & The Council of the European Union?

european council: Made up of the heads of the states of each member state. believed by some to be the most powerful institute in the EU. They meet twice every 6 months to discuss very specific topics.

- They vote on the commission president who is nominated from the european parliament by majority vote

- they elect the High representative by majority vote

- It is usually from the their meetings that the Commission is granted the powers to legislate or not to legislate in certain areas most often. (normally the commission cannot make any legislation outside of the areas specifically identified in the treaties)


- In exception of a few specific processes outlined in the treaty (2 above) all decisions in the European Council must be by consensus of every member.

To put simply the Council sets the direction of the Union prior to Lisbon they had this power exlcusively which made them unquestionable the most powerful institute, but after lisbon the parliament now also has some of those powers.


The Council of European Union was previously known as the Council of Ministers and its not one council its multiple councils that form when a law is coming through the european union. It is made up of the national ministers from each member state related to the field that the law coming through is focused on.

So for example a law related to trains will see the minister of transportation from each countries government sit on the council while a law on medical equipment will see the health ministers of each government sit on the council.

They vote by QMV (quantitave majority voting) predominantly and are meant to be really the point in the process where a law is discussed and adjusted so that it suits each states national laws and interests as best as it could.

Its also the council that tends to draw the most criticism as it is the only point where you will get a country being outvoted and where a lot of people mistakenly claim why the UK has no power by pointing to this institute.

Reality is honestly a bit more confusing, yes the UK has been on the losing side of more laws then any other country in recent years. But the % of laws they've voted against is tiny compared to the number that go through (its less then 5% of the total I think) The UK also not included in a lot of votes in areas they have specifically voted out of and then the nature of the laws they voted against tend to come into question. Some of the laws the UK conservatives have voted against include European party funding laws, issues that may very well be of more interest to the party then the country. It's a mistake to think of the Council of European Union as representing each country but specifically the government.

Akrasia

JinkyJackson wrote: »

Britain won't leave, that's my point.

That remains to be seen.

Francie Barrett

If you were a trader, you could an absolute fortune trading this.

sink

Francie Barrett wrote: »

If you were a trader, you could an absolute fortune trading this.

Or loose one

Akrasia

Francie Barrett wrote: »

If you were a trader, you could an absolute fortune trading this.

Lose?

Sorry you forgot the adjective

Fr Tod Umptious

Pound has dropped 6% in the last few mins.

Inquitus

This is now a crapshoot

Francie Barrett

I thought this would be an early night.

Francie Barrett

Akrasia wrote: »

Lose?

Sorry you forgot the adjective

I was meant to write win/lose

Akrasia

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Pound has dropped 6% in the last few mins.

The BBC keeps telling me not to go to bed. Can I get a note for work tomorrow?

Jimoslimos

Only people benefiting from this are traders.

Conspiracy hat on. Wonder was Farage up to something when he conceded so soon after the polls closed, due to what he was hearing from his acquaintances in the City?

RobertKK

I don't have to work tomorrow, will top up on caffeine.

So unsure how this goes. I was confident it was going to be remain but now its ???????

sink

Jimoslimos wrote: »

Only people benefiting from this are traders.

Conspiracy hat on. Wonder was Farage up to something when he conceded so soon after the polls closed, due to what he was hearing from his acquaintances in the City?

Yep, traders could easily have spiked the juice

Francie Barrett

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 1m1 minute ago
"strong turnout, higher than GE in many areas. More divergence than expected" Ie Remain areas more Remainy, Leave more Leavy - Labour source

Sand

I'm not too worried about it, but I imagine if the Remain campaign dont start posting some serious wins soon, the leaders of the Leave campaign will start bricking it as they realise they will actually have to enact their foolishness.

I saw the Tory Leave MPs signed a petition asking David Cameron to remain on no matter what the result. A certain amount of CYA and trying to bring themselves back into favour, but I cant see Cameron staying on if Leave wins. He would be on the wrong side of a historic issue, and why would he want to have his name attached to the 7 ring circus a Leave vote would result in? He will quit and leave Gove, Johnson and Farage to clean up their own mess - god help the UK then.

Francie Barrett

I am worried that the Leave side have gotten their vote out better than the Remain vote.

Akrasia

sink wrote: »

Yep, traders could easily have spiked the juice

Brokers are minting it, but a lot of traders are losing their shirts. Brokers get transaction fees. High volumes benefit them. Traders will be sh1tting themselves because the markets heavily backed the remain side

Lemming

Calm the horses folks; of all the areas declared thus far, only one out of the five declared has been a Leave majority - Sunderland just happened to be a larger margin at this early stage.

The_Kew_Tour

The real winners are Rich people tonight.