Brexit Referendum Superthread

Capt'n Midnight

djpbarry wrote: »

The CIA is a media outlet now, is it?

and has been for ages
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/

Fratton Fred

steddyeddy wrote: »

I think they presume it should be one state because it would be if not for British involvement. I remember you saying yourself you had disregard for Irish people supporting Scottish independence. Same thing except democracy is involved in the latter.

What?

Without British involvement, this could easily be four states.

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

What?

Without British involvement, this could easily be four states.

Fred I know your views on the colonial past so we'll agree to disagree.

steddyeddy

I'm beginning to think May isn't as "strong and stable" as she makes out. It seems she picks and chooses which reporter asks her questions. That's sort of understandable considering how weak she is in interviews.

oscarBravo

AnGaelach wrote: »

Do you think I was trying to say it was bad or something? I was pointing out that the reason the Germans like the EU is because they have a huge gain from it.

All member states have a huge gain from membership. That's sort of the point.

Jim2007

AnGaelach wrote: »

Do you think I was trying to say it was bad or something? I was pointing out that the reason the Germans like the EU is because they have a huge gain from it.

Germany and Ireland are the big winners! Both have produced positive balances of trade over the long term and as such would have strong currencies, but instead they get to trade in an under valued currency at little expense to the exchequer.

By contrast Switzerland, also a long term net exporter, failed to peg the Frac to the Euro to protect our exports and the cost of the failure has been enormous. We now hold Euro bonds equal to the deficit of the eight largest Euro Group states!

Jim2007

murphaph wrote: »

To be honest you'll almost never see an EU flag on a German infrastructural project sign either but I'd wager most Germans feel their country has benefited from being an EU member.

Might it have something to with the number of infrastructure projects being financed by the EU in Germany?

Jim2007

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Then why so much emphasis on what Jean Claude Juncker says?

Well he is the head of the commission, but more importantly he is the choice of the parliament and as such is as close to having been elected as you can get. During the last election each party put forward a candidate for the position, the parties winning the majority supported Junker, so he was appointed.

First Up

AnGaelach wrote: »

The European Commission is the agent which drives forward integration. It's the "Guardian of the Treaties" and is the one which proposes legislation (which is never anything but grinding inexorably towards "ever closer union").

Your argument only stacks up if the bus driver is the one proposing what paths to go down and your only answer is "yes" or "no" (and if it's a no he'll just stop the bus, back up a little bit and ask you again).

The Commission is the EU's Civil Service. All Civil Services propose legislation; governments approve and enact it.

Bus drivers operate the routes they are assigned and that the passengers want to take.

Calina

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Calina wrote: »

Our outlook is different to the UK outlook - Ireland is clearly more open to Europe and the EU and pathetic and all as our language skills are more of our teenagers are learning French and German to senior level than in the UK,

I'd be interested to see if that is actually the case.

I am on a phone now but:

From examinations.ie and the JCQ site in the UK. Figures for Ireland are higher level subjects only - not ordinary level leaving cert -and for UK are A level. Numbers are absolute. They are for 2016.

French.
UK: 9672
ROI: 15252

German:
UK: 3842
ROI: 5254

Spanish - just because it is inverse
UK: 8460
ROI: 4405.

Total : quick addition
UK: 21974
ROI: 24911

Missing from this: ordinary level leaving cert and Scotland highers. A level numbers are UK as a whole but Scotland also has its own system I seem to recall the last time I ran these numbers I had trouble finding Scottish figures although SQA probably has them.

Worth noting that foreign languages are not mandatory at GCSE level in the UK.

BoatMad

my one view now, has changed, I now think the UK should hard exit , in fact it should F-off post haste and let the Union get on with things, the UK has been like the disruptive kid at the back of the class, The "leave-no-one-behind" strategy is over, get out and stay out thanks

ireland will survive and adapt

steddyeddy

I don't think Northern Ireland will. Link from the BBC. Unionists will love the bit in bold.

The rolling hills and peaceful loughs of County Armagh seem an unlikely flashpoint in the looming Brexit negotiations.
But the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which runs through farms, roads, hedges and even houses has emerged as a crucial issue in the talks - and one with deep implications for the Northern Irish economy.
The border now exists virtually in name only, with the only visible sign when crossing between the countries the change in speed limit signs from miles per hour to kilometres.
Talk to young people in the county towns and they are incredulous at the talk of a hard border post-Brexit.
Their parents, however, are more wary. They know that only a few decades ago the border was extremely hard, with watchtowers on hills, troops searching lorries and queues of cars waiting to cross.
Peace process
The peace process dismantled the watchtowers and let the troops leave.
Since, the cross border economy has flourished.
"It's two countries, but really the economy of the island of Ireland is, in most respects, one economy," said Ellvena Graham, vice-president of the Northern Irish Chambers of Commerce.
Companies have set up close to the border to make use of the good transport links to Dublin, and unemployment rates in the border counties have fallen from about 25% at the height of the Troubles to about 3% - lower than the national average.
The cross-border trade is particularly strong in farming; one-third of Northern Ireland's milk production is handled in the Republic, while the same proportion of Irish pigs cross the border for processing in Northern Irish factories.
'Seamless' border
Fane Valley, a Northern Ireland farmers co-operative founded in 1903, has annual sales in excess of £500m and extensive operations on both sides of the border. Trevor Lockhart, the chief executive says the border is "seamless, and we would like to keep it that way".
"The industry is very concerned about a hard border and what that might mean. It would set the industry back 25 years."
Contingency planning was already underway, Lockhart said, with some big decisions likely to be taken towards the end of next year - before the official Brexit deadline of March 2019.
Lockhart said companies like his needed to make their plans now, even though there was no clarity on the eventual status of the border.

"We can't take it for granted. We are trying to maximise sales in domestic markets - the economic stakes are so high that we can't leave it to chance. We can't just hope it will be alright on the night," he said.
Immigration
The other Brexit-related threat to Northern Irish agriculture is limits on immigration. About 65% of all workers in the industry are migrants, most of those EU nationals.
Lockhart's hopes - and those of other Irish businessmen, north and south - may clash with the hard realities of Brexit, and the promise that British politicians will take back control of borders and control immigration.
Some academics and economists have suggested that the eventual solution may be to recognise the porous nature of the Northern Ireland border and shift the hard frontier back to airports and ports in England, Scotland and Wales.
This would leave Northern Ireland in the special position of being part of the United Kingdom, with -bizarrely - an open border with the European Union.
Such a solution, anathema to hard-Brexiteers, might make Northern Ireland a sought-after business location, one enjoying, by accident of history, the best of both worlds.

dinorebel

steddyeddy wrote: »

I don't think Northern Ireland will. Link from the BBC. Unionists will love the bit in bold.

The unemployment level in Donegal is twice the national average not sure where he gets the 3% rate from.

steddyeddy

dinorebel wrote: »

The unemployment level in Donegal is twice the national average not sure where he gets the 3% rate from.

Yea that's a bit shoddy alright.

An Ciarraioch

Calina wrote: »

I am on a phone now but:

From examinations.ie and the JCQ site in the UK. Figures for Ireland are higher level subjects only - not ordinary level leaving cert -and for UK are A level. Numbers are absolute. They are for 2016.

French.
UK: 9672
ROI: 15252

German:
UK: 3842
ROI: 5254

Spanish - just because it is inverse
UK: 8460
ROI: 4405.

Total : quick addition
UK: 21974
ROI: 24911

Missing from this: ordinary level leaving cert and Scotland highers. A level numbers are UK as a whole but Scotland also has its own system I seem to recall the last time I ran these numbers I had trouble finding Scottish figures although SQA probably has them.

Worth noting that foreign languages are not mandatory at GCSE level in the UK.

Extraordinary when one considers the populations of both countries - clearly the importance of languages across the water has gone through the floor.

djpbarry

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Then why so much emphasis on what Jean Claude Juncker says?

Because most people in the UK have absolutely no idea how the EU operates and it?s convenient for the British tabloids to use the likes of Juncker and Tusk as public hate figures.

They are the face of the EU, nothing more.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

And there is a belief they are atoning for their past.

Seriously? Speaking of tabloids, eh?

djpbarry

AnGaelach wrote: »

Your argument only stacks up if the bus driver is the one proposing what paths to go down and your only answer is "yes" or "no" (and if it's a no he'll just stop the bus, back up a little bit and ask you again).

That's a wonderful analogy to describe how the commission does not operate.

The commission does not drive the bus, the elected representatives of member states do and, by extension, the citizens of those states.

djpbarry

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Thankfully, not as powerful as his title suggests. He is the most powerful politician within the EU political structure though, and to assume that he is irrelevant would be a mistake.

Nobody is suggesting he is irrelevant, but if you were to take at face value that which appears in the British tabloids, you?d be forgiven for believing that Tusk and Juncker are emperors of Europe.

Professor Moriarty

djpbarry wrote: »

Nobody is suggesting he is irrelevant, but if you were to take at face value that which appears in the British tabloids, you?d be forgiven for believing that Tusk and Juncker are emperors of Europe.

The tabloids and the Torygraph. But what would you expect from a pig but a grunt?

They are the face of Europe. They have to be because Merkel, Macron et al can't be seen to be speaking for Europe. That's why I suspect they, plus Barnier, will have to be given a lot of autonomy in the Brexit talks.

demfad

steddyeddy wrote: »

I don't think Northern Ireland will. Link from the BBC. Unionists will love the bit in bold.

I actually think a lot of media has missed a key point that Tusk, Barnier and others have made in recent weeks. Three issues need to be solved before and trade talks:

• Divorce Bill
• Irish Border
• EU/UK nationals status

In other words there wont be any trade deal with a hard border.

I'm no fan of Kenny. But this was a significant achievment by himself or whomever brought this about.

Water John

I think it's sufficient progress on these three issues. No parallel talks on trade as UK seemed to think.
Yes, I agree, the home work done by Ireland on this has been very good. We have history in being very good when focussed on one task. Ireland must be male.

A short while into talks, we will know the reality. We'll find out does the UK understand reality.

An Ciarraioch

Ireland must be male?

BoatMad

Some academics and economists have suggested that the eventual solution may be to recognise the porous nature of the Northern Ireland border and shift the hard frontier back to airports and ports in England, Scotland and Wales.
This would leave Northern Ireland in the special position of being part of the United Kingdom, with -bizarrely - an open border with the European Union.
Such a solution, anathema to hard-Brexiteers, might make Northern Ireland a sought-after business location, one enjoying, by accident of history, the best of both world

actually, the only practical workable solution ( but that doesnt mean it will be accepted as little of this is about logic ) , is to in effect leave NI in the EU , for all practical purposes, and create the border on the Mainland UK.

however the melt down amongst Unionists will make this impossible I think , however May will have such a majority she may simply chose to ignore the Unionists in a simple decision to take ROI/NI/EU off the agenda and the solution would have little impact in the Uk and Europe , and would in practice be a great commercial benefit to NI

Fratton Fred

Calina wrote: »

I am on a phone now but:

From examinations.ie and the JCQ site in the UK. Figures for Ireland are higher level subjects only - not ordinary level leaving cert -and for UK are A level. Numbers are absolute. They are for 2016.

French.
UK: 9672
ROI: 15252

German:
UK: 3842
ROI: 5254

Spanish - just because it is inverse
UK: 8460
ROI: 4405.

Total : quick addition
UK: 21974
ROI: 24911

Missing from this: ordinary level leaving cert and Scotland highers. A level numbers are UK as a whole but Scotland also has its own system I seem to recall the last time I ran these numbers I had trouble finding Scottish figures although SQA probably has them.

Worth noting that foreign languages are not mandatory at GCSE level in the UK.

There is a huge difference in your measurement, due to the huge difference in the education systems.

Students usually only take four subjects at A level and would very rarely take a language, because they are specialised subjects that are based on the university degree you would look to take. For example, if you want to do a medicine degree, then you would take Chemistry, Maths, Physics and Biology.

160,000 took GCSE French (which is the standard foreign language taught in Schools) and 50,000 took German.

For a like for like comparison, you would need to compare junior cert and GCSE

steddyeddy

demfad wrote: »

I actually think a lot of media has missed a key point that Tusk, Barnier and others have made in recent weeks. Three issues need to be solved before and trade talks:

• Divorce Bill
• Irish Border
• EU/UK nationals status

In other words there wont be any trade deal with a hard border.

I'm no fan of Kenny. But this was a significant achievment by himself or whomever brought this about.

I'm also no fan of Kenny but I think he's done well to look after our interests here. Nice to see the EU is putting us first.

Calina

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Calina wrote: »

I am on a phone now but:

From examinations.ie and the JCQ site in the UK. Figures for Ireland are higher level subjects only - not ordinary level leaving cert -and for UK are A level. Numbers are absolute. They are for 2016.

French.
UK: 9672
ROI: 15252

German:
UK: 3842
ROI: 5254

Spanish - just because it is inverse
UK: 8460
ROI: 4405.

Total : quick addition
UK: 21974
ROI: 24911

Missing from this: ordinary level leaving cert and Scotland highers. A level numbers are UK as a whole but Scotland also has its own system I seem to recall the last time I ran these numbers I had trouble finding Scottish figures although SQA probably has them.

Worth noting that foreign languages are not mandatory at GCSE level in the UK.

There is a huge difference in your measurement, due to the huge difference in the education systems.

Students usually only take four subjects at A level and would very rarely take a language, because they are specialised subjects that are based on the university degree you would look to take. For example, if you want to do a medicine degree, then you would take Chemistry, Maths, Physics and Biology.

160,000 took GCSE French (which is the standard foreign language taught in Schools) and 50,000 took German.

For a like for like comparison, you would need to compare junior cert and GCSE

I specified *senior* level absolute numbers for French and German above and that was what you queried. You are moving my goalposts that I set out because it transpired I wasn't wrong. I threw you a bone and pointed out Spanish was different.

This is not a comparison of the education systems. It is a comparison of how many teenagers take languages to senior level in absolute numbers and not proportionally. Saying I should look at gcse and junior cert numbers is not answering that question.

Fratton Fred

Calina wrote: »

I specified *senior* level absolute numbers for French and German above and that was what you queried. You are moving my goalposts that I set out because it transpired I wasn't wrong. I threw you a bone and pointed out Spanish was different.

This is not a comparison of the education systems. It is a comparison of how many teenagers take languages to senior level in absolute numbers and not proportionally. Saying I should look at gcse and junior cert numbers is not answering that question.

in the UK, senior level is GCSE.

neither really answers your point that the Irish consider themselves more european.

The reason I was surprised, is that I would consider the language skills in Ireland no different to those in the UK. The only difference being that to me, it appears more people can speak conversational Spanish in Ireland than in England, but more French in England.

But then, I grew up in an area where people were known to nip to France once a month for shopping, or to drive to the Alps every year for skiing. It may be different the further you go north.

dinorebel

Calina wrote: »

I specified *senior* level absolute numbers for French and German above and that was what you queried. You are moving my goalposts that I set out because it transpired I wasn't wrong. I threw you a bone and pointed out Spanish was different.

This is not a comparison of the education systems. It is a comparison of how many teenagers take languages to senior level in absolute numbers and not proportionally. Saying I should look at gcse and junior cert numbers is not answering that question.

A better comparison would be languages at degree level the figures you highlighted are pretty meaningless given the differences in education systems.

dinorebel

To be fair neither country comes out well in this if you compare them to mainland Europe.

Fratton Fred

dinorebel wrote: »

To be fair neither country comes out well in this if you compare them to mainland Europe.

an unfortunate effect of having English as a first language, it makes learning a second language less important/