Brexit Referendum Superthread

steddyeddy

In fairness the DUP made their bed. They can explain to their (already low income) unionist voters why they're getting poorer.

Junkyard Tom

steddyeddy wrote: »

They can explain to their (already low income) unionist voters why they're getting poorer.

If Arlene Foster's 'them'uns-are-poaching-business-from-us' is anything to go by there's going to be no acceptance that Brexit or Britain has any responsibility for the consequences of Brexit in the six counties.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

If Arlene Foster's 'them'uns-are-poaching-business-from-us' is anything to go by there's going to be no acceptance that Brexit or Britain has any responsibility for the consequences of Brexit in the six counties.

The DUP will most likely orchestrate a fear/sectarian based resurgence in the general election that will buck the trend. Then the 'fun' starts as they go back into the bunkers.

That is my rather depressing assessment of the oncoming cluster**** of Brexit.
Nobody, including Barnier, has given me any hope that there is a good outcome for the north in the short to medium term.

First Up

FrancieBrady wrote:

That is my rather depressing assessment of the oncoming cluster**** of Brexit. Nobody, including Barnier, has given me any hope that there is a good outcome for the north in the short to medium term.

I think Barnier was pretty honest about it. No point in the EU denying reality like the UK seems to be.

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Nobody, including Barnier, has given me any hope that there is a good outcome for the north in the short to medium term.

I disagree. Barnier has said that the border is one of his 3 big issues which have to be dealt with before trade talks. The UK need those trade talks, and they have already said they will do everything possible to prevent a hard border.

I am confident the UK will throw the DUP under a bus to get to trade talks - especially May with an increased mandate. What are the DUP going to do, leave the UK in protest?

NI will get special status, stay in the free travel zone and customs union, no hard border.

Goods checks will be at British ports - far more practical anyhow than checks on every boreen crossing the border.

demfad

BoatMad wrote: »

easy to implement, practical to control as controls can be easily placed on the UK mainland, easy both for the UK and the 27 to agree on too ( its a small place )

not easy for certain sections to accept , of course, thats a different issue

NI did not get a veto say on Brexit, or on type of Brexit. Odd if they were given special status for this.

A significant majority would agree. Every farmer would agree to this for example. A few wont for ideological reasons but if it blocks the UK getting trade deal they will be ignored.

View

BoatMad wrote: »

easy to implement, practical to control as controls can be easily placed on the UK mainland, easy both for the UK and the 27 to agree on too ( its a small place )

not easy for certain sections to accept , of course, thats a different issue

If I recall correctly, NI does far, far more trade with the rest of the UK than it does with the RoI. As such your solution would cause it far more disruption than the equally simple - if unpleasant- one of just copying what most other countries do and building a border (fence) with its neighbouring countries.

Junkyard Tom

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I am confident the UK will throw the DUP under a bus to get to trade talks - especially May with an increased mandate. What are the DUP going to do, leave the UK in protest?

They've found themselves trapped in a web of their own making. They were cynically trying to out-British the UUP never thinking they'd have to deal with the consequences of a leave vote.

First Up

View wrote: »

If I recall correctly, NI does far, far more trade with the rest of the UK than it does with the RoI. As such your solution would cause it far more disruption than the equally simple - if unpleasant- one of just copying what most other countries do and building a border (fence) with its neighbouring countries.

That is exactly the dilemma they face. Keeping Ireland border-free seems to be a sacred cow for everyone but let's see how they square that with their commitment to N.I as an integral part of the Union.

Water John

The special status for NI would be looked for by the EU as a benefit to the ROI, no land borders.

demfad

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

UK will not be in the customs union. Look at how much sovereignty Turkey had to give up to get that. For a start it means the EU would decide all of the UK's foreign trade tariffs , without the UK having a say. .

You don't give up any sovereignty to be in customs Union, the single market or the EU. You give up some control but the trade off is you do more trade, become more prosperous. This is the same for any Union even for FTAs. They must be overseen by the collective. To say the UK has no say is therefore completely wrong.
For the UK to enter any Union and demand complete control is obviously ridiiculous. So the UKs problem involves them not wanting to lose any control over their terms of trade. They have never really said that they have much of an issue with these terms.
The problem is that a few have succeeded in persuading half the electorate that a club sharing control is discriminating against individual members.
This is a lie.

ancapailldorcha

I agree with demfad's point. If the UK had actually surrendered sovereignty, it wouldn't have been able to leave via a simple plebiscite.

First Up

demfad wrote: »

You don't give up any sovereignty to be in customs Union, the single market or the EU. You give up some control but the trade off is you do more trade, become more prosperous. This is the same for any Union even for FTAs. They must be overseen by the collective. To say the UK has no say is therefore completely wrong.
For the UK to enter any Union and demand complete control is obviously ridiiculous. So the UKs problem involves them not wanting to lose any control over their terms of trade. They have never really said that they have much of an issue with these terms.
The problem is that a few have succeeded in persuading half the electorate that a club sharing control is discriminating against individual members.
This is a lie.

If they are in the Customs Union, then they have to operate under the terms of the EU's Common External Tariff exactly as they do now. So all the talk about them being "free" to negotiate spiffing new trade deals with the rest of the world is just more of the imaginary nonsense.

If they don't enter the Customs Union (and May has said they won't) then the 44% of their exports that go to the EU as part of a Single Market will risk facing tariffs as well as customs procedures.

Nody

demfad wrote: »

The problem is that a few have succeeded in persuading half the electorate that a club sharing control is discriminating against individual members.
This is a lie.

And that the club is punishing you if you want to leave the club but insist on having the same access to the club shared resources as before and they refuse you...

Chester Copperpot

View wrote: »

If I recall correctly, NI does far, far more trade with the rest of the UK than it does with the RoI. As such your solution would cause it far more disruption than the equally simple - if unpleasant- one of just copying what most other countries do and building a border (fence) with its neighbouring countries.

They can't even keep the welcome to northern Ireland signs up for more than a few hours. What chance does a fence have. A physical border will never work in Ireland as it is not acceptable to those who live along it.

steddyeddy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I agree with demfad's point. If the UK had actually surrendered sovereignty, it wouldn't have been able to leave via a simple plebiscite.

We know that but we didn't vote leave.

demfad

First Up wrote: »

If they are in the Customs Union, then they have to operate under the terms of the EU's Common External Tariff exactly as they do now. So all the talk about them being "free" to negotiate spiffing new trade deals with the rest of the world is just more of the imaginary nonsense.

If they don't enter the Customs Union (and May has said they won't) then the 44% of their exports that go to the EU as part of a Single Market will risk facing tariffs as well as customs procedures.

Not only the 44% that they trade with the EU, but also they will potentially lose the FTAs that the EU currently has with many other countries.
They will have to wait in line for FTAs behind the EU for any 'new' countries (eg the USA), and the deals will be worse as the UK is significantly smaller.

From 'Global Britain's" viewpoint at least they wont have to be part of a shared market or customs Union where clearly the UK not having full control represents a fascist like attack on UK sovereignty by the tyrant EU (other 27 including Ireland)

Also the illusion that they could set more beneficial WTO terms than the ones Europe has was quickly exposed as an illusion.
If they dont have the EXACT same WTO tariffs as before the relevant countries will spark a tarde dispute that the UK would be scarcely equipt for.
Fox very quietly applied for the same rates a long time ago.
Quotas are trickiest. For this reason they would be wise recalculate their quotas slightly disfavourable to themselves as the alternative (trade dispute) could not be countenanced.

ancapailldorcha

steddyeddy wrote: »

We know that but we didn't vote leave.

I don't understand what you're getting at. There was a referendum. People voted to leave the EU and it looks likely that that will include the customs union. My point was that an actual loss of sovereignty would make leaving the customs union impossible.

Water John

The people voted, to recommend to Parliament.

ancapailldorcha

Water John wrote: »

The people voted, to recommend to Parliament.

Sorry but this is irrelevant. Article 50 has been triggered and the UK is on the path to leaving the EU and its various bodies. Most voters are either happy with this or have made peace with it.

First Up

ancapailldorcha wrote:

Most voters are either happy with this or have made peace with it.

Or the implications have not yet dawned on them.

mickoneill31

First Up wrote: »

Or the implications have not yet dawned on them.

I made the mistake of clicking an Express paper news item today. Have a look at the comments section. It make the Journal commenter look like Mens candidates.

Loads of

"The EU will hurt more than us"
"Exit now without a deal"
"France will suffer when we don't buy their wine"

type comments. They're in a little bubble supporting themselves.

Junkyard Tom

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Most voters are either happy with this or have made peace with it.

Perhaps not..

The YouGov/Times survey found 43 per cent of voters believe Britain was right to vote to leave the EU.

However, 45 per cent of the 1,590 surveyed said they thought it was the wrong decision.

independent.co.uk

ancapailldorcha

Fair point but there is a gap between thinking that voters made a mistake last June and wanting a rerun of the referendum.

Junkyard Tom

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Fair point but there is a gap between thinking that voters made a mistake last June and wanting a rerun of the referendum.

Yeah and it's only a poll too rather than a vote so probably should be taken with a pinch of salt.

I do think that the UK is deeply divided on Brexit though.

ancapailldorcha

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Yeah and it's only a poll too rather than a vote so probably should be taken with a pinch of salt.

I do think that the UK is deeply divided on Brexit though.

Polls are more accurate with referenda though given that there are only 2 outcomes. That said, the UK is definitely divided at the moment. If you look at the US, you see Democrats and Republicans pulling support from specific demographics. This happened to a great extent in Britain in the referendum that with a traditional general election. The result is lower income, working class areas voting to leave while wealthier, cosmopolitan cities vote remain. Each side ends up resenting the other somewhat.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Fair point but there is a gap between thinking that voters made a mistake last June and wanting a rerun of the referendum.

The words 'on mature reflection' spring to mind. When British people see the reality of what Brexit means (unless it is a very flaccid Brexit), they may wish to change their minds.

Of course, two problems may arise to prevent mature reflection. 1. The Little Englander Tory press and the Tories will continue to lie thus misinforming the public. 2. The EU may well decide good riddance to bad rubbish after the jingoistic claptrap that the Little Englander Tories will be spouting over the next two years and having gone through exhaustive negotiations that they didn't want in the first place. Every nation gets the government it deserves.

steddyeddy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't understand what you're getting at. There was a referendum. People voted to leave the EU and it looks likely that that will include the customs union. My point was that an actual loss of sovereignty would make leaving the customs union impossible.

I mean we all (well most of us) know that the UK was sovereign despite being in the EU. It's the leave voters that refused to believe that.

AnGaelach

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The words 'on mature reflection' spring to mind. When British people see the reality of what Brexit means (unless it is a very flaccid Brexit), they may wish to change their minds.

That's little more than conjecture on your part. We've seen people who backed Remain (like Niall Ferguson) who have swung to backing Brexit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_r8eDIIo3fw


here seems to be less desire to reverse Brexit than there was to stop it in the first place
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/18/bregrets-remainers-polls-leavers-brexit-referendum

Although a small number of remainers did indeed feel the grief that some commentators observed, overall their views were more ambivalent. By November, a similar number of those who voted remain (20%) said they had “come to terms with the result”, as said they felt “depressed” about it (22%); just 5% agreed that “Brexit can still be averted if the remain side continue to put their case to the public”.

murphaph

Time will tell. They're too stubborn to stop it now but I firmly believe we'll be hearing from a chastened UK in my lifetime, knocking at the door of an EU that I hope and believe will welcome the next generation in with open arms, but as a fully committed member state, without the opt-outs.