Brexit Referendum Superthread

wes

NIMAN wrote: »

I have a belief all this May/election/hung parliament/DUP/another election in the autumn stuff is one big conspiracy to get the UK out of going ahead with Brexit.

Those pulling the strings know its bad for Britain and are muddying the waters until it so happens they can work out a way to stay in.

You heard it here first folks !!

While its not longer impossible that Brexit could be abandoned, due to all the chaos. I don't think its a Machiavelli plot, and its due more to incompetence, and Brexit needlessly dividing the country. The remainers and the younger generation took revenge on the Tory's, for ignoring both groups. A "howl of rage" if you will .

NIMAN

Maybe they are angling for a softer version then?

Considering May was a remainer, don't understand her logic of looking for a hard exit.

Professor Moriarty

NIMAN wrote: »

Maybe they are angling for a softer version then?

Considering May was a remainer, don't understand her logic of looking for a hard exit.

She is a hypocrite in thrall to the Little Englander wing of the Tory party and to the Tory press. She sold her soul.

Nody

NIMAN wrote: »

I have a belief all this May/election/hung parliament/DUP/another election in the autumn stuff is one big conspiracy to get the UK out of going ahead with Brexit.

Those pulling the strings know its bad for Britain and are muddying the waters until it so happens they can work out a way to stay in.

You heard it here first folks !!

With the notice already handed in however it's a tad to late for that; it's now out of UK hand if Brexit will happen or not and it would be down to all the 27 countries to agree to let UK remain (seeing how a European Court ruling would take years to come through).

ambro25

Nody wrote: »

With the notice already handed in however it's a tad to late for that; it's now out of UK hand if Brexit will happen or not and it would be down to all the 27 countries to agree to let UK remain (seeing how a European Court ruling would take years to come through).

This would be quite the quandary for the EU: to keep the UK in, for all sorts of shorter-term politically- and financially-advantageous reasons; or to let the Article 50 period end roll them out without extension or retraction, for the longer-term advantage of being rid of their unending self-serving braking-on-all-4s...

...Daddy or chips?

Water John

It's funny the British 'deciding' whether they will have a hard or soft Brexit. It's not their decision, as they'll become aware of, next week.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/eu-we-will-kill-brexit-negotiations-if-may-insists-on-trade-talks-1.3116544

Theresa May is to be told the EU will take a year to draft a new mandate for its chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, effectively killing the Brexit negotiations, if she insists on discussing a future trade relationship at the same time as the UK’s divorce bill.

:eek:

Nody

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/eu-we-will-kill-brexit-negotiations-if-may-insists-on-trade-talks-1.3116544:eek:

Only making sure May understands who's in control but expect that to be trotted out by the Sun as the excuse to why the deal is bad in a years time.

swampgas

The UK has rarely looked so dysfunctional. I had thought that by now they might be managing to dig up, but no, it's deeper and deeper we go.

The Tories managed to turn a small majority into a small minority; any loose alliance formed with the DUP is unlikely to last, especially when the Tory party itself is still very divided over the EU and Brexit. Gove is back in the cabinet, amid suspicions that Murdoch twisted May's arm to have him brought back into the fold, and Johnson is still foreign secretary. It's hardly a cabinet to inspire confidence. IMO the fact that May is still PM after such a terrible election campaign, that there has been no move to replace her, shows that the Tories don't have anyone better to put forward - and that's pretty damning.

Labour have made a comeback but their position on the EU is, IMO anyway, flawed in a similar way to that of the Tories: they seem to be arguing that they can negotiate their way around the four freedoms and yet somehow still stay in the single market. Their manifesto was big on "attempting to negotiate" and very light on how those negotiations might be achieved. If Labour get into power I can see the EU being a divisive issue for them to deal with, maybe not as bad as for the Tories, but bad enough all the same. (Clearly they seem to be messaging that they want a "soft" Brexit but I don't think any such thing exists.)

And all the while the Brexit clock is ticking down, leaving the EU negotiators hanging around waiting for the UK to get its act together.

Right now I can't see any way at all that the UK is not going to crash out of the EU in a ball of flames. Ireland had better brace itself for a bumpy ride.

.

Leonard Hofstadter

Water John wrote: »

It's funny the British 'deciding' whether they will have a hard or soft Brexit. It's not their decision, as they'll become aware of, next week.

Indeed. It might be what they want. Doesn't mean it's what they'll get - although obviously Ireland will support any kind of softer Brexit.

The other thing to remember is stuff like the customs union was meant to be a stepping stone for going into the EU, not a halfway house for leaving.

I don't see why the EU would allow the UK join the customs union as a sort of bridging arrangement until the UK sets up all its own trade deals and stuff. That kind of would be quite an incentive for any other EU country thinking of leaving to do the same thing - 'sure if Britain can do it and get away with it, why can't we'.

Peregrinus

NIMAN wrote: »

I have a belief all this May/election/hung parliament/DUP/another election in the autumn stuff is one big conspiracy to get the UK out of going ahead with Brexit.

Those pulling the strings know its bad for Britain and are muddying the waters until it so happens they can work out a way to stay in.

You heard it here first folks !!

wes wrote: »

While its not longer impossible that Brexit could be abandoned, due to all the chaos. I don't think its a Machiavelli plot, and its due more to incompetence, and Brexit needlessly dividing the country. The remainers and the younger generation took revenge on the Tory's, for ignoring both groups. A "howl of rage" if you will .

I don't think what NIMAN outlines would be a Machiavellian plot at all; arguably it would be democracy at its finest.

The problem is that, while 52% voted for Brexit in the referendum, we can't say that they voted for any particular kind of Brexit. They didn't vote to leave the EEA (or to remain in it) or to leave the Customs Union (or to remain in it) or to end free movement (or to retain it) or anything else; there was no Brexit proposal put to the people for endorsement.

May tried to solve this problem by outlining a Brexit plan and then seeking a mandate to implement it. Obviously, she hasn't got that mandate.

So, the people of the UK have rejected remaining in the Union on the current terms, and they have rejected leaving the Union on the terms outlined by May. As yet, they haven't actually affirmed any strategy at all. If the UK does end up either with a softer Brexit or (much less likely) no Brexit at all, that will be because that turns out to be the strategy that eventually secures, if not the enthusiastic support, at least the assent of a majority of the people.

Jim2007

wes wrote: »

While its not longer impossible that Brexit could be abandoned, due to all the chaos.

That train has well and truly left the station. A50 has been invoked and there is no provision what so ever for it to be revoked other than wishful thinking! All that remains is for the UK to decide whether it wants to try and get some kind of a deal or walk away with nothing. And time is running out on that one too.

And given the reforms that the EU wants to implement I'd say that other than lip service, there is very little support for the UK remaining the EU and having it continually disrupting the reform process.

Fratton Fred

ambro25 wrote: »

This would be quite the quandary for the EU: to keep the UK in, for all sorts of shorter-term politically- and financially-advantageous reasons; or to let the Article 50 period end roll them out without extension or retraction, for the longer-term advantage of being rid of their unending self-serving braking-on-all-4s...

...Daddy or chips?

I do smile when I hear that the EU is accusing the UK of being self serving (how many times have the French veteod plans to close Strasbourg and how come the smallest country in Europe is the biggest suppier of books?)

It is good that the EU's fundemental rights are being so rigorously upheld though. Shame they didn't actually apply these when the French were rounding up, finger printing and deporting 10,000 eu citizens because they were the wrong ethnicity

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I do smile when I hear that the EU is accusing the UK of being self serving (how many times have the French veteod plans to close Strasbourg and how come the smallest country in Europe is the biggest suppier of books?)

It is good that the EU's fundemental rights are being so rigorously upheld though. Shame they didn't actually apply these when the French were rounding up, finger printing and deporting 10,000 eu citizens because they were the wrong ethnicity

Yes, EU States can be self serving including France. The UKs selfishness in EU affairs is in its own league however. The arrogant, misguided and foolish approach to Brexit thus far is evidence enough. Now before you start listing examples of other member states being occasionally selfish remember that none so with a consistency and selfishness to approach that of the UK.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

Yes, EU States can be self serving including France. The UKs selfishness in EU affairs is in its own league however. The arrogant, misguided and foolish approach to Brexit thus far is evidence enough. Now before you start listing examples of other member states being occasionally selfish remember that none so with a consistency and selfishness to approach that of the UK.

which is, of course, only your opinion. How many times has the eu failed to sign a treaty because of the UK?

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

which is, of course, only your opinion. How many times has the eu failed to sign a treaty because of the UK?

That isn't the relevant measure. The question is how many treaties were amended, watered down or withdrawn because of opposition from various member states.

Anyone with experience of working in the Berlaymont will give you the answer.

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

That isn't the relevant measure. The question is how many treaties were amended, watered down or withdrawn because of opposition from various member states.

Anyone with experience of working in the Berlaymont will give you the answer.

go on then

The last major one I can recall is the Walloons blocking the Canadian trade agreement (after the visegard group had done the same) because they didn't like it.

ambro25

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I do smile when I hear that the EU is accusing the UK of being self serving (how many times have the French veteod plans to close Strasbourg and how come the smallest country in Europe is the biggest suppier of books?)

The EU didn't. I did, in an opinion post. And I'm not "the EU".

Meanwhile, I'll see your Strasbourg veto, and raise you the UK's veto on EU tariffs to counter China's steel dumping.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It is good that the EU's fundemental rights are being so rigorously upheld though. Shame they didn't actually apply these when the French were rounding up, finger printing and deporting 10,000 eu citizens because they were the wrong ethnicity

That's so vague as to be fairly specious, so how about you particularise that claim a bit? Maybe a link?

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

The last major one I can recall is the Walloons blocking the Canadian trade agreement (after the visegard group had done the same) because they didn't like it.

That may be the last one you heard about. What you didn't hear about were all the times issues were hammered out around the corridors before they got anywhere near a vote.

Water John

William Hague making sensible suggestions as to how to move forward. Quite similar to LB and SNP.
IDS of course, spouting for a Hard Brexit, and Boris acting the gobs***e, by all accounts.
One would think that there may be a false start next week. Break up for a few weeks before reality sets in.

Fratton Fred

ambro25 wrote: »

The EU didn't. I did, in an opinion post. And I'm not "the EU".

Meanwhile, I'll see your Strasbourg veto, and raise you the UK's veto on EU tariffs to counter China's steel dumping.
That's so vague as to be fairly specious, so how about you particularise that claim a bit? Maybe a link?

surely you've heard of this?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/sep/16/france-persecution-roma-sarkozy-brussels

the net outcome, of course, was the eu did absolutely nothing.

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

That may be the last one you heard about. What you didn't hear about were all the times issues were hammered out around the corridors before they got anywhere near a vote.

well, yeah, that's kind of how parliaments work

ambro25

Fratton Fred wrote: »

surely you've heard of this?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/sep/16/france-persecution-roma-sarkozy-brussels

the net outcome, of course, was the eu did absolutely nothing.

That old story. Some dredging you've had to do, to try and score a point.

The arrests and expulsions were all made under national law/rules fully compatible with EU law, hence why the EU did nothing (other than apologise for some distasteful comments).

There might have been fingerprinting, but that must have been trap-door'd quick, because:

Le Monde on 7 October 2010 reported that the French Office Central de Lutte contre la Délinquance Itinérante (OCLDI) holds a database of French Romani known as the MENS database.[43][44] The French authorities denied these claims.[45] A formal complaint regarding this was made by lawyers representing four Romani rights groups.[46]

Subsequent investigations were conducted both by the Commission nationale de l'informatique et des libertés (CNIL), an independent body that oversees data privacy, and by the internal auditing unit in charge of overseeing data files. Both inquiries concluded that no MENS database existed or had ever existed, and CNIL reported finding no file with ethnic information in a broader investigation of the police and gendarmerie systems

(wiki)

Of course, a working immigration system, within and notwithstanding the constraints of the EU 4 freedoms, is not really the narrative of the moment for pro-Leavers, and hasn't been for quite a while.

FWIW, I (and every other person who has one) have had my fingerprints on record for just over 2 decades: it was, and still is, a mandatory aspect of the application procedure for the new-style French national ID card (with MRZ). In the eyes of some, it might be less 'intrusive' than the new (mandatory) retina scan for passport (because retina supposedly trumps fingerprints, on the scale of positive identification). Still, boooo, black helicopters, men in black at the door, <...> :pac:

steddyeddy

Theresa May appoints Brexit architect and hardliner, Steve Baker as Brexit minister. It's fair to say as far as Brexiters goes, Theresa is as hard as they come.

Eurosceptic Conservative MP Steve Baker has been named as a minister at the Department for Exiting the European Union.

The Wycombe MP becomes the latest appointment as Theresa May continues to reshuffle her top team following her failure to secure a parliamentary majority at the general election.

The choice of Mr Baker, one of the most vocal Eurosceptic Tory MPs, to an important role in the Brexit department is likely to anger Remain supporters who had hoped the election result would force Ms May to adopt a more conciliatory tone on Brexit and drop threats to leave the EU without a trade deal.

Mr Baker played a prominent role in the Leave campaign and was chair of a group of 50 Conservative MPs, called Conservative for Britain, that fought for Brexit in the run-up to last June’s referendum. He later ran the European Research Group - a Brexiteer organisation for backbench Conservatives.

Britain can stay in the EU if it wants to, German minister says
Earlier this year he compiled a list of 27 Conservative colleagues who he claimed were thinking of voting in favour of amendments to the Government's Brexit bill when it was being debated by Parliament.

At the time, Mr Baker said: “This is a time to unite behind a democratic result, not plot to repudiate it. Any vote to amend this simple bill is a vote against implementation of the referendum result.”

Since the Brexit vote, he has frequently called for Britain to leave the single market in order to focus on creating “a new system of free trade”.

“A vote to remain in the [European Economic Area] or the customs union is a vote to be powerless over trade and domestic regulation and therefore poorer than we otherwise can be," he said late last year. "The UK is ideally positioned to catalyse a new global trading system which works for everyone by promoting free and fair trade and defending against predatory practices.”

The appointment of Mr Baker to the Brexit department led critics to accuse Ms May of ignoring the result of the general election, which saw the Conservatives lose their parliamentary majority and instead seek a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in order to pass key legislation.

Nody

The talks are due to start on Monday on May's request; EU in preparation did this:

On Monday this week, the EU sent to London its positioning papers, officially outlining its negotiating stance ahead of talks, and had expected similar documents to come back in good time before discussions begin.

The highly skilled negotiation team in May's non existent government did this:

nothing had been sent back to Brussels by Thursday night.

One source across the Channel said it was “unbelievable” that the UK had still not sent the “basic” papers for the start of negotiations, with just over three days left before they begin. They added: “The talks are beginning on Monday. There are no positioning papers yet. It’s a basic thing that should happen beforehand. It doesn’t bode well.”

Why am I not surprised by yet another failure of May to even have a policy in place to start a discussion...

Sam Russell

Nody wrote: »

The talks are due to start on Monday on May's request; EU in preparation did this:

The highly skilled negotiation team in May's non existent government did this:


Why am I not surprised by yet another failure of May to even have a policy in place to start a discussion...

Of course they have position papers. They are too secret to send to Brussels though - they might be leaked to the British public (or even the Tory Party).

Water John

Hard Brexiteers are giving May, 10 days to shape up or face a leadership challenge.
What are they then going to do with the DUP and Scottish MPs?

The UK Govn't hasn't a clue what it wants from Brexit talks.

Capt'n Midnight

Sobering when you think of how many people on the UK side have shifted roles or been ousted since the whole thing started.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/06/15/brexit-talks-start-on-monday-and-we-have-no-idea-what-we-re

Britain will start talks with the EU on Monday. We are now about to go into the most challenging negotiations since the Second World War with no government, no overall aim, no plan to achieve it, no functioning department to deliver it, no confidence at home or abroad with which to pass it, no trade expert capacity to negotiate it, and no time to manage it

...

May herself is damaged goods of the sort which can never be repaired. Her humiliation is too specific and too great. She will never have any authority around that Brussels negotiating table, nor back home in Westminster. Brussels doesn't have confidence that she can deliver on the promises she makes in Europe or even that she is likely to still be prime minister by the next time they have a meeting. What an unspeakable shambles these people are.

And that clock just keeps on ticking down to March 31st 2019

Water John

Cameron has a lot to answer for. May is just now, collateral damage. It was all about, trying to keep the Tory party together and that may not happen, now either. Party before country. Boris cut from the same cloth. His sister going around saying May is a victim of the Grenfell disaster. Do they have any, emotional intelligence?

BlitzKrieg

Water John wrote: »

Hard Brexiteers are giving May, 10 days to shape up or face a leadership challenge.
What are they then going to do with the DUP and Scottish MPs?

The UK Govn't hasn't a clue what it wants from Brexit talks.

and I was about to give them credit for avoiding such a toss up post election because they knew they had no one else.

The hard brexit bunch seem to be the really really stupid part of the tory part.