Brexit Referendum Superthread

Enzokk

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

and I was about to give them credit for avoiding such a toss up post election because they knew they had no one else.

The hard brexit bunch seem to be the really really stupid part of the tory part.

Have you ever met or heard a Hard Brexiter that could give you a reasonable answer or explanation for why a hard Brexit is a good idea? I am not talking about snake oil salesman Farage or Johnson who hides behind shifting arguments when you confront them on an issue, but someone who wants to leave everything from the EU and have answers for what specific laws from the EU are the problem that has taken away British sovereignty.

I think most people now, looking at the financial data how the UK went from the fastest growing economy to the slowest in only half a year, realises that Brexit may not have been a good idea after all. And it seems with consumers spending money they borrowed and inflation going up I don't see many bright spots for the UK economy, other than the world economy looks brighter. A bit ironic that the Brexiteers were all about how great the economy was doing post Brexit vote, yet we are now in a situation where they are bottom of the growth table in the EU and looking at the EU economy being stronger to help with their slowdown.

That said you will still have your anti-immigration supporters talking about Romanians and 485m people coming to Brittain. I guess they are a bit like Trump supporters at the moment, they have bet it all on the wrong horse, but they will continue flogging it all the way to the grave I suppose.

UK economy falls to bottom of EU growth league

UK comes bottom of G7 growth league as Canada takes lead

whatstherush

The brexit kool-aid gruel is starting to taste a little bitter for our British chums. Leaving the custom union only 30% support in poll today and majority now favor vote on final deal.

Brexit is dead in water, for all the horse****e about will of the people, you can't vote away reality. Membership of the EU has benifits and leaving removes those, it has been as simple as that since day 1.

Water John

We will know, quite soon, as the UK turn up in Brussels for talks.
The EU side won't be keeping anything secret. I honestly expect a godawful mess. Mainly resulting from politicians, within the Tory party, all watching each other.

Capt'n Midnight

With the "A team" focused on Brexit ,how are the "B team" getting on with arranging trade deals with places like India and China ?

How many extra immigrants from India will those negotiators have to concede because of the "strong and stable" election ?

Nody

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

With the "A team" focused on Brexit ,how are the "B team" getting on with arranging trade deals with places like India and China ?

How many extra immigrants from India will those negotiators have to concede because of the "strong and stable" election ?

There is not going to be a trade deal with anyone else until they got something sorted out with EU appear to be the most common stance; but I'd be putting money on no trade deals even 5 years after they get sorted out with EU and that's being generous and assuming Tories stay in power (I'd expect at least two elections before the first TD with shifting goals/countries to add to the mess).

Andrea Leadsom, who was appointed Leader of the House of Commons after last week’s election, said:

“The UK will spend the next two years preparing for our departure from the European Union in a way that best places us to realise the opportunities ahead and build a fairer society.

Taken from here; did someone forget to tell Andrea of when Article 50 was invoked and what's the end date?

Rjd2

whatstherush wrote: »

The brexit kool-aid gruel is starting to taste a little bitter for our British chums. Leaving the custom union only 30% support in poll today and majority now favor vote on final deal.

Brexit is dead in water, for all the horse****e about will of the people, you can't vote away reality. Membership of the EU has benifits and leaving removes those, it has been as simple as that since day 1.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95fi1OSNl_0

Portillo nailed it the other day about May and the hard Brexit brigade.

From what I see Hammond is positioning himself to take over from May. He most certainly is not a fan of Hard Brexit, if I was a Brit, I'd much prefer him in charge rather than disasterpiece May or one of the more foolhardy Hard Brexit people like Davies.

Nody

Rjd2 wrote: »

From what I see Hammond is positioning himself to take over from May. He most certainly is not a fan of Hard Brexit, if I was a Brit, I'd much prefer him in charge rather than disasterpiece May or one of the more foolhardy Hard Brexit people like Davies.

Only putting it out there but could the goal be hard Brexit through ensuring no deal is struck? We know the Article 50 has a fixed deadline; they constantly stated the whole "no deal is better than a bad deal" so why not waste the remaining time on demanding the combination of the soft & hard brexit (i.e. insist on having access without tariffs to the full European market but not share the requirement of free movement of people, demand full access to all Free Trade Agreements while insisting on the right to negotiate their own, insist on not being under EU court jurisdiction etc.). The whole point being by doing so it appears to pander to all sides but in reality they expect to end up with no deal and a hard brexit in practice (and hence their goal is fulfilled). Once they are out they can then start negotiate for real instead and take their time about it while blaming EU for not negotiating fairly to pander locally in the UK for the next decade and all woes is due to EU not being reasonable etc.

Enzokk

Rjd2 wrote: »

Portillo nailed it the other day about May and the hard Brexit brigade.

From what I see Hammond is positioning himself to take over from May. He most certainly is not a fan of Hard Brexit, if I was a Brit, I'd much prefer him in charge rather than disasterpiece May or one of the more foolhardy Hard Brexit people like Davies.

But what will he do about those that want a hard Brexit that will vote for UKIP or even Labour again if they feel they are getting screwed by the Tories? By the way I think this isn't a problem for the Tories alone, but if Labour were in control they would face the same problem within their own party. There will be people that voted for either party that want a hard Brexit. Whoever is in charge will face the backlash, a bit like Labour taking the GFC blame, even if is obvious that no action by the Tories could have avoided it. Its just one of those things that will cost them votes, whoever is in charge. Rather the idiots that brought this on the country than Labour who didn't promise the referendum.

Water John

Yes, either Hammond or Rudd and tell the hard boys to stuff themselves. Plenty on the soft side in the House of Commons. But Country before Party for once. People will follow.

steddyeddy

Water John wrote: »

Yes, either Hammond or Rudd and tell the hard boys to stuff themselves. Plenty on the soft side in the House of Commons. But Country before Party for once. People will follow.

Well it's hard to know who wants what sort of Brexit. Phillip Hammond did tell the FT that Britain will be leaving the single market.

Rjd2

Enzokk wrote: »

But what will he do about those that want a hard Brexit that will vote for UKIP or even Labour again if they feel they are getting screwed by the Tories? By the way I think this isn't a problem for the Tories alone, but if Labour were in control they would face the same problem within their own party. There will be people that voted for either party that want a hard Brexit. Whoever is in charge will face the backlash, a bit like Labour taking the GFC blame, even if is obvious that no action by the Tories could have avoided it. Its just one of those things that will cost them votes, whoever is in charge. Rather the idiots that brought this on the country than Labour who didn't promise the referendum.

I don't think either of the main two parties are going to satisfy their bases with how they handle Brexit sadly. Labour benefited hugely due to the anti Brexit mood, but plenty of their main faces have contradicted each other about what they want to do with the single market etc. Corbyn was a reluctant remainer unlike some of the other elements of the party.

Hammond I hope is probably content to copy and paste May's vision as not to come across as a backstabber. He knows she is struggling to hold on, if she goes then it will be a fight between the likes of him and the hard liners like Davis regarding how to handle Brexit.

Absolute ****show though is for the public no matter whether you were leave or remain.

murphaph

Enzokk wrote: »

But what will he do about those that want a hard Brexit that will vote for UKIP or even Labour again if they feel they are getting screwed by the Tories? By the way I think this isn't a problem for the Tories alone, but if Labour were in control they would face the same problem within their own party. There will be people that voted for either party that want a hard Brexit. Whoever is in charge will face the backlash, a bit like Labour taking the GFC blame, even if is obvious that no action by the Tories could have avoided it. Its just one of those things that will cost them votes, whoever is in charge. Rather the idiots that brought this on the country than Labour who didn't promise the referendum.

Indeed. This is all happening because with FPTP you "need" 2 big parties that end up full of very disparate views. Both big parties arguably need to split and let their Eurosceptic wings find friends.

I cannot see a way out for May or her successors (assuming no general election has been held). They don't have the numbers to push through a hard Brexit and apparently the Tory party Brexiteers are ready to go to the polls again if a soft Brexit is the destination as the DUP would be committing electoral suicide in most of their constituencies if they agree to a hard Brexit (large rural protestant support base who need cross border agri trade to continue).

It's an impossible conundrum without a commons majority. Amazed she hasn't quit already. I think she may be mentally unstable (no joke).

Professor Moriarty

murphaph wrote: »

Indeed. This is all happening because with FPTP you "need" 2 big parties that end up full of very disparate views. Both big parties arguably need to split and let their Eurosceptic wings find friends.

I cannot see a way out for May or her successors (assuming no general election has been held). They don't have the numbers to push through a hard Brexit and apparently the Tory party Brexiteers are ready to go to the polls again if a soft Brexit is the destination as the DUP would be committing electoral suicide in most of their constituencies if they agree to a hard Brexit (large rural protestant support base who need cross border agri trade to continue).

It's an impossible conundrum without a commons majority. Amazed she hasn't quit already. I think she may be mentally unstable (no joke).

I met a woman in England this weekend who had a meeting with her recently. Said she was extremely rude and condescending.

PeadarCo

murphaph wrote:

It's an impossible conundrum without a commons majority. Amazed she hasn't quit already. I think she may be mentally unstable (no joke).

I think you've highlighted the reason May won't quit. Who replaces her? Given that the conservatives are divided over Brexit a leadership battle becomes a proxy fight for brexit. Each camp will want their person as leader. They are in big mess as it is without a leadership contest at the moment.

murphaph

PeadarCo wrote: »

I think you've highlighted the reason May won't quit. Who replaces her? Given that the conservatives are divided over Brexit a leadership battle becomes a proxy fight for brexit. Each camp will want their person as leader. They are in big mess as it is without a leadership contest at the moment.

The thing is May soon has to declare what she will settle for. Either the Brexiteers or the DUP (or emboldened soft Brexiteers in the Tory party) at that stage will pull the plug on the government. She simply cannot keep everyone happy and the EU will be tweeting updates on the negotiations.

I'd say we're looking at another general election this summer. The UK is in a terrible mess.

First Up

murphaph wrote:

I'd say we're looking at another general election this summer. The UK is in a terrible mess.

I think the mess is only starting.

Enzokk

Rjd2 wrote: »

I don't think either of the main two parties are going to satisfy their bases with how they handle Brexit sadly. Labour benefited hugely due to the anti Brexit mood, but plenty of their main faces have contradicted each other about what they want to do with the single market etc. Corbyn was a reluctant remainer unlike some of the other elements of the party.

Hammond I hope is probably content to copy and paste May's vision as not to come across as a backstabber. He knows she is struggling to hold on, if she goes then it will be a fight between the likes of him and the hard liners like Davis regarding how to handle Brexit.

Absolute ****show though is for the public no matter whether you were leave or remain.

I think the way to keep voters and win more is to set out your vision and to stick to it. Yes you will piss off some voters but you cannot please everyone. At least if you have a vision for Brexit and most of your party agrees then the public can get behind it and you can pick up more voters than you lose. At the moment we have nothing from the ruling party on what they want. It is irrelevant what the Labour plan is as their plan is not relevant. They are not in power so we have to see what Theresa May has in store.

I do agree it is a mess, from the day the referendum was offered its been a mess.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I met a woman in England this weekend who had a meeting with her recently. Said she was extremely rude and condescending.

The British are known for their sense of humour, but her eye roll at the other candidates during the announcement of her election result should have told you a lot about her.

PeadarCo wrote: »

I think you've highlighted the reason May won't quit. Who replaces her? Given that the conservatives are divided over Brexit a leadership battle becomes a proxy fight for brexit. Each camp will want their person as leader. They are in big mess as it is without a leadership contest at the moment.

It really shouldn't be her concern who takes over. David Cameron didn't care and neither should she. She will be known as the worst PM and unless she somehow pulls out a great Brexit deal there is not much that can redeem her. I guess she could always agitate the Argentinians over the Falklands and truly follow in Thatchers footsteps...

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

She will be known as the worst PM and unless she somehow pulls out a great Brexit deal there is not much that can redeem her. I guess she could always agitate the Argentinians over the Falklands and truly follow in Thatchers footsteps...

If only the Royal Navy had carriers, or the Tories hadn't dropped defence forces by 20,000 since they came to power.

UK power projection is a fraction of what it used to be. Less ships, and other navies are more powerful than they used to be. Gunboat diplomacy doesn't work as well when a military conflict isn't a foregone conclusion.


Tomorrow the EU side where all 27 countries agreed a position within 60 seconds, is facing the UK side which may or may not have a position. And negotiators whose authority could be removed if the political position changes.

And don't forget they aren't negotiating a trade deal, because that can only, happen after these divorce negotiations.

Enzokk

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

If only the Royal Navy had carriers, or the Tories hadn't dropped defence forces by 20,000 since they came to power.

UK power projection is a fraction of what it used to be. Less ships, and other navies are more powerful than they used to be. Gunboat diplomacy doesn't work as well when a military conflict isn't a foregone conclusion.


Tomorrow the EU side where all 27 countries agreed a position within 60 seconds, is facing the UK side which may or may not have a position. And negotiators whose authority could be removed if the political position changes.

And don't forget they aren't negotiating a trade deal, because that can only, happen after these divorce negotiations.

I am sure the British spirit will win through...resources be damned. Do we know if the UK side has bothered to respond to the EU negotiation papers yet? The last I saw was the UK hasn't even bothered or given the courtesy to reply to the EU negotiation paper.

Brexit talks: Government yet to submit opening positions despite EU negotiations being days away

Junkyard Tom

May sought a landslide mandate to Brexit however she and her faction wanted. That seems like old news now. Everything has changed. Also, if the CON's had any sense they know DUP support would be reflexive with Republican 'sympathiser' Corbyn and Labour resurgent.



https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/876579094288371717

Jim2007

murphaph wrote: »

I'd say we're looking at another general election this summer. The UK is in a terrible mess.

That would require that they overcome the 4 year rule...

wes

Jim2007 wrote: »

That would require that they overcome the 4 year rule...

They can repeal the law if need be, or a 2/3 majority in parliament to call an election if I remember right.

Peregrinus

wes wrote: »

They can repeal the law if need be, or a 2/3 majority in parliament to call an election if I remember right.

If I recall correctly, repealing the fixed term parliament law was one of the commitments in the Tory manifesto for the election just gone by.

Of course, they could argue that they're not bound to do that, on the basis that they didn't secure a mandate in the election to implement their manifesto . . .

BlinkingLights

I'm sure the Tories will be delighted to see that Macron's new party just achieved an absolute majority in the legislative elections in France.

It will potentially make their negotiation a lot trickier.

wes

BlinkingLights wrote: »

I'm sure the Tories will be delighted to see that Macron's new party just achieved an absolute majority in the legislative elections in France.

It will potentially make their negotiation a lot trickier.

In some ways yes, but at least they know the people who they are making an agreement with, can actually keep it. The issue the EU has now is that anything agreed with in principle with the UK, could fall a part in 6 months time.

Jim2007

wes wrote: »

They can repeal the law if need be, or a 2/3 majority in parliament to call an election if I remember right.

Except they don't have a 2/3 majority and JC seems to think he should have the right to try to form a government....

Sam Russell

Jim2007 wrote: »

That would require that they overcome the 4 year rule...

No, if they lose a confidence vote or a money bill (confidence or supply), thn there is a general election.

The 2/3 rds bit is to stop the PM calling a snap election if the PM were to spot that their party was 20 points in the lead and go for a landslide.

Fratton Fred

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I met a woman in England this weekend who had a meeting with her recently. Said she was extremely rude and condescending.

I come from her constituency. I know several people that have met her several times both socially and in her capacity as the local MP. I have never heard anyone (even local Lib Dem supporters) who have been anything but complimentary about her.

Professor Moriarty

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I come from her constituency. I know several people that have met her several times both socially and in her capacity as the local MP. I have never heard anyone (even local Lib Dem supporters) who have been anything but complimentary about her.

Amazing. Perhaps those people met her as voters. This was a business meeting and she was very rude to staff and the others around the table according to this woman. Maybe she was having a bad day. I suspect she's having quite a lot of those.

Mr.Micro

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Amazing. Perhaps those people met her as voters. This was a business meeting and she was very rude to staff and the others around the table according to this woman. Maybe she was having a bad day. I suspect she's having quite a lot of those.

She is not up for the job. She appears to have no idea what is required and runs away. If it is too much for her, she should quit. She is not doing a good job.