Brexit Referendum Superthread

Memnoch

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Maybe she could call an election and get a big majority, so she can ride out an grief from that side of her party......oh

I don't think anyone ever really expected any thing else did they?

I don't know. There was a lot of bluster during the election campaign. And now it sounds like what they've done after all their posturing is U turn on day one and adopt Labour's publicly announced position during the election.

What's the betting on that 100 billion divorce bill?

I'm trying to figure out what the meta game is here. The EU hold all the cards, so what is it that they REALLY want?

Do they want Brexit to fail and the UK to withdraw article 50. How can this be possible? No one who offers that will be able to get it past the electorate domestically. A severe national humiliation that will just not be palatable.

A Hard brexit, followed by a decade or two of economic calamity, followed by a chastened UK joining in but with their so called special status?

A Norway style arrangement, which might work for both sides but what was the point then?

Whatever they say about wanting brexit to succeed, deep down does the EU want to punish the UK and make an example so that anyone else will think twice, seeing the chaos that follows?

If the EU draw a hard line on the 100 billion then that might just scupper May's government. But what do they have to gain by that?

steddyeddy

I don't see any evidence that she's not a hard brexiter. Where are people getting that from?

Memnoch

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Interestingly, a majority (51%) would vote remain were a vote held today. The same poll puts Labour 3 points ahead of the Tories. From a different poll, (53%) want a second referendum on the outcome of the talks and 67% don't want Britain to leave the customs union. It would seem that public opinion is beginning to shift. And this is before the realities begin to sink in.

The issue is that it isn't about pure numbers.

The way electoral math works in the UK, the white working class vote, which was largely pro brexit, and is strongly anti immigration will punish whoever reneges on the issue of free movement. This will be enough to turn a lot of seats one way or the other in the FPTP system.

I'm struggling to see how the UK avoids a hard brexit.

Memnoch

steddyeddy wrote: »

I don't see any evidence that she's not a hard brexiter. Where are people getting that from?

I don't think she has any real policy position other than what is most expedient for her, her party and her party donors.

Agenda one is holding onto power, everything else is subservient to that.

Professor Moriarty

steddyeddy wrote: »

I don't see any evidence that she's not a hard brexiter. Where are people getting that from?

On the few occasions she showed her face during the election didn't she insist that no deal is better than a bad deal? And doesn't Brexit mean Brexit? That's about all she said. Oh, and strong and stable leadership.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

Maybe she could call an election and get a big majority, so she can ride out an grief from that side of her party......oh

Maybe if she campaigned on that basis.....

Fratton Fred

Memnoch wrote: »

I don't know. There was a lot of bluster during the election campaign. And now it sounds like what they've done after all their posturing is U turn on day one and adopt Labour's publicly announced position during the election.

What's the betting on that 100 billion divorce bill?

I'm trying to figure out what the meta game is here. The EU hold all the cards, so what is it that they REALLY want?

Do they want Brexit to fail and the UK to withdraw article 50. How can this be possible? No one who offers that will be able to get it past the electorate domestically. A severe national humiliation that will just not be palatable.

A Hard brexit, followed by a decade or two of economic calamity, followed by a chastened UK joining in but with their so called special status?

A Norway style arrangement, which might work for both sides but what was the point then?

Whatever they say about wanting brexit to succeed, deep down does the EU want to punish the UK and make an example so that anyone else will think twice, seeing the chaos that follows?

If the EU draw a hard line on the 100 billion then that might just scupper May's government. But what do they have to gain by that?

If the divorce bill is €100bn, then it is what it is, if it is €100bn because that's what the eu want as a punishment, then the UK should tell them to go take a running jump and resort to WTO rules.

The UK is committed to the budget up to 2020, after that the eu need to justify their figure.

Professor Moriarty

Memnoch wrote: »

The issue is that it isn't about pure numbers.

The way electoral math works in the UK, the white working class vote, which was largely pro brexit, and is strongly anti immigration will punish whoever reneges on the issue of free movement. This will be enough to turn a lot of seats one way or the other in the FPTP system.

I'm struggling to see how the UK avoids a hard brexit.

I agree. It's hard to see how a hard Brexit could be rolled back unless the Tories eat humble pie. However, what the numbers indicate is that whoever negotiates Brexit (which will be a bad deal for Britain because it has to be) will take a hammering in the following election.

Memnoch

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If the divorce bill is €100bn, then it is what it is, if it is €100bn because that's what the eu want as a punishment, then the UK should tell them to go take a running jump and resort to WTO rules.

The UK is committed to the budget up to 2020, after that the eu need to justify their figure.

I'm sure they can justify it but ultimately is a political negotiation. The conservatives are snookered badly and the EU know this.

Perhaps the WTO is what the EU want. A little bit of pain for them but it will cripple the UK for a decade and no one else will try the same gambit again. And meanwhile they can push on with federalisation.

As I said, it really just depends on what the people pulling the strings REALLY want for the EU project.

First Up

The divorce bill is probably negotiable. The punishment will take other (self inflicted) forms.

Memnoch

First Up wrote: »

The divorce bill is probably negotiable. The punishment will take other (self inflicted) forms.

Yup they can't seem too obvious about it, but they probably intend to and will humiliate May's government after all the tough talk that got thrown around.

Today's U-turn is just prologue in a long line of capitulations to come, I fear.

Water John

Well, as the link you put up Eddy says, UK blinked today. they will need to be quick progress on this for the substantive talks to start. Don't see that.
I still these talks will break down in the short term.

Fratton Fred

Memnoch wrote: »

I'm sure they can justify it but ultimately is a political negotiation. The conservatives are snookered badly and the EU know this.

Perhaps the WTO is what the EU want. A little bit of pain for them but it will cripple the UK for a decade and no one else will try the same gambit again. And meanwhile they can push on with federalisation.

As I said, it really just depends on what the people pulling the strings REALLY want for the EU project.

And the Irish government will agree to this will it?

This will be a pragmatic negotiation conducted by people who want what is best for all parties, not a few people who just want to stick it to de Brits.

murphaph

Fratton Fred wrote: »

And the Irish government will agree to this will it?

This will be a pragmatic negotiation conducted by people who want what is best for all parties, not a few people who just want to stick it to de Brits.

The pragmatic thing would be for the UK to forget Brexit. Pragmatism may not come in to it. The likes of Germany actually believes in the European project, even if we Brits and Irish don't understand that. They are prepared to suffer financially to maintain the pillars of the EU.

Capt'n Midnight

Leaving Customs Union means they don't get Turkish level of access.



https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0619/883774-formal-brexit-negotiations-get-underway-in-brussels/

The Minister for Foreign Affairs has said that Ireland will not approve of any deal on Brexit unless it guarantees the full protection of the Good Friday Agreement and the peace process.

Capt'n Midnight

murphaph wrote: »

The likes of Germany actually believes in the European project, even if we Brits and Irish don't understand that. They are prepared to suffer financially to maintain the pillars of the EU.

About that ...

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2017/0521/876875-poll-brexit-europe/

On the whole, the survey found that voters see our future within the EU, with 71% agreeing that Ireland should stay in the EU, even if the outcome of the Brexit negotiations are bad for the country.

Water John

We might occasionally give the EU a kicking. But you'd need to understand the Irish physce, that isn't a rejection. We are more nuanced than that.

Memnoch

Fratton Fred wrote: »

And the Irish government will agree to this will it?

This will be a pragmatic negotiation conducted by people who want what is best for all parties, not a few people who just want to stick it to de Brits.

I am speaking in pragmatic terms.

In these terms, is it worthwhile for the EU to let the UK be an 'example' of the consequences of leaving the union?

It all depends on who is really pulling the strings at the top, what their agenda is and what best serves that agenda. It may very well be that there are competing ideologies between nations, politicians, political parties and their various donors and backers. All of this is probably independent of what the UK wants or doesn't want.

From what I can see, it does look like they're going to try to force either a complete reversal of article 50 or a hard brexit with the foresight that that will ultimately return the UK to the fold severely chastened.

While the conservatives are busy playing snakes and ladders back home, there is a real game of 3d chess being played out with much bigger stakes and the UK is going to find itself horribly exposed if this government continues to be incompetent in their macroscopic strategy in order to stay on top in their own little sand box.

Jim2007

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If the divorce bill is €100bn, then it is what it is, if it is €100bn because that's what the eu want as a punishment, then the UK should tell them to go take a running jump and resort to WTO rules.

You need to be a member of the WTO first in order to oblige the others to trade on WTO terms... can't see the 27 members agreeing to that without the U.K. first sorting out the situation with the EU first.

Jim2007

Memnoch wrote: »

If the EU draw a hard line on the 100 billion then that might just scupper May's government. But what do they have to gain by that?

If I remember correctly the €100b was a figure from the FT, prior to that most talk was of €50b to €60b and in fact the actual EU position to to reach agreement on the method of calculating the amount not on the actual amount.

Zubeneschamali

Fratton Fred wrote: »

in what way did she drop the ball? the government's response has been pretty comprehensive, she just didn't turn up to give out a few hugs like Jezza did.

a) She showed up at the scene, but met firefighters, not victims, citing security. Then the aged Queen showed up and met victims. Terrible optics.

b) The government's response has been far from comprehensive. The victims have been reliant on charities and volunteers.

c) It is clear that the Tory council have been giving council taxpayers refunds while neglecting the kind of people who died in the fire. May has not addressed this at all.

Zubeneschamali

Memnoch wrote: »

so what is it that they REALLY want?

May just wants to stay PM and Tory leader for another week.

Brexit, no Brexit, policy, schmolicy, she doesn't care.

Zubeneschamali

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If the divorce bill is €100bn, then it is what it is, if it is €100bn because that's what the eu want as a punishment, then the UK should tell them to go take a running jump and resort to WTO rules.

So if we are in the real world, OK, but if the numbers are the very same but we are in some feverish fantasy world imagined by the British tabloids, no way!

This is why Brexit is happening.

steddyeddy

So we know the UK is definitely leaving the customs union and the single market. What's that if not a hard Brexit?

murphaph

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

About that ...

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2017/0521/876875-poll-brexit-europe/

We get the economic benefits but I genuinely don't think most Irish people are in favour of "ever closer union". We like the EU because we do better inside it than we could ever do outside it and we know this. We have no former empire to look back on with rose tinted glasses, but we don't really feel the non-economic benefits the EU has brought (peace and stability after a terrible war that left us largely unscathed in the Republic).

Peregrinus

murphaph wrote: »

We get the economic benefits but I genuinely don't think most Irish people are in favour of "ever closer union". We like the EU because we do better inside it than we could ever do outside it and we know this. We have no former empire to look back on with rose tinted glasses, but we don't really feel the non-economic benefits the EU has brought (peace and stability after a terrible war that left us largely unscathed in the Republic).

I dunno. While the war left us "largely unscathed" in terms of physical involvement, we did suffer significant economic costs and hardships. More to the point, we were close enough (geographically and socially) to see how horrifying it was.

Fratton Fred

Jim2007 wrote: »

You need to be a member of the WTO first in order to oblige the others to trade on WTO terms... can't see the 27 members agreeing to that without the U.K. first sorting out the situation with the EU first.

so the EU will try and block the UK joining the WTO if it doesn't like the terms of the divorce? How will that go down with the WTO?

This appears to be just your wishful thinking rather than actual reality.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

a) She showed up at the scene, but met firefighters, not victims, citing security. Then the aged Queen showed up and met victims. Terrible optics.

b) The government's response has been far from comprehensive. The victims have been reliant on charities and volunteers.

The initial response came through charity groups, because they have feet on the ground and can mobilise quickly.

It wasn't good optics at all, but the queen is likely to be met by a less angry crowd than Theresa MAy, is she not. I doubt if it were her decisions anyway, security would not be entirely under her control

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

c) It is clear that the Tory council have been giving council taxpayers refunds while neglecting the kind of people who died in the fire. May has not addressed this at all.

the UK isn't Ireland. Councils are run by the councils, not the local MP or the government. If they have broken the rules, then they will be punished, but what is it exactly you expect the Prime Minister to do about it?

It's just something to criticise her for, without actually thinking it through.

Memnoch wrote: »

I am speaking in pragmatic terms.

In these terms, is it worthwhile for the EU to let the UK be an 'example' of the consequences of leaving the union?

make an example of? you mean be punitive? Then the UK would be perfectly entitled to tell them to **** off. Pragmatically of course.

Memnoch wrote: »

It all depends on who is really pulling the strings at the top, what their agenda is and what best serves that agenda. It may very well be that there are competing ideologies between nations, politicians, political parties and their various donors and backers. All of this is probably independent of what the UK wants or doesn't want.

Judging by recent major events in the eu, I would say that he who pays the piper, calls the tune. So the result will be whatever the German, French, Italian and Danish governments want. It will be more about a satisfactory divorce settlement, a satisfactory resolution for EU citizens in other countries and a good future working relationship with the eu's largest trade partner.

I know there are a lot on here who just want to see the British punished, but the Germans are a lot more pragmatic than that. They really really don't want the UK to leave and certainly don't want to sour a future relationship. Do you think they really care about the smaller states, other than some sort of guilt hungover from previous generations?

Memnoch wrote: »

From what I can see, it does look like they're going to try to force either a complete reversal of article 50 or a hard brexit with the foresight that that will ultimately return the UK to the fold severely chastened.

and how do you see that? or is it just wild speculation based on what you would like to happen?

Memnoch wrote: »

While the conservatives are busy playing snakes and ladders back home, there is a real game of 3d chess being played out with much bigger stakes and the UK is going to find itself horribly exposed if this government continues to be incompetent in their macroscopic strategy in order to stay on top in their own little sand box.

In what way has the government been incompetent?

Zubeneschamali

steddyeddy wrote: »

So we know the UK is definitely leaving the customs union and the single market.

No, we don't know that.

We know that the UK is proposing to leave the customs union and single market, but we also know they are proposing a free trade deal. Similarly they are insisting on control over immigration while saying they want no return to a hard border in Ireland.

It is only when negotiations get moving in earnest that we will find out which of these contradictory positions they will stick at.

Before the election, I would have said Hard Brexit looked most likely, but now they depend on the DUP who are pro-CTA, pro-farmer, pro ease of trade with Republic, frictionless border, customs agreement with EU, and emphasise skills and labour above security in immigration policy.

So now I think a softer Brexit is more likely than before.

Zubeneschamali

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The initial response came through charity groups, because they have feet on the ground and can mobilise quickly.

Yes, unlike the Government of the 5th largest economy on the planet.

Here's George Osborne, former Chancellor, raising charity cash to help the victims because his Party in Government won't:

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/875653865357451270

Fratton Fred

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, unlike the Government of the 5th largest economy on the planet.

Here's George Osborne, former Chancellor, raising charity cash to help the victims because his Party in Government won't:

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/875653865357451270

what were you expecting, TM to go down there and hand out twenty pound notes or something?

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/grenfell-tower-fire-june-2017-support-for-people-affected