Brexit Referendum Superthread

oppenheimer1

Fratton Fred wrote: »

whereas a captain that said "Forget it lads, we're fooked" would?

A real leader faces down the mob and tells them when they are wrong.

She should have said "The electorate has voted for something which is not in the best interests of the nation. What we have voted for will isolate us, will mean some will lose their jobs and the vast majority will be poorer. We are going to investigate why this has happened and address the reasons for it. We will address inequality, and we will no longer lay the blame for uncomfortable domestic decisions on foreigners or outside institutions. We are no longer going to tolerate a hate filled press and allow it to go unchallenged.

If, at the end of this process, the electorate still wants to act in a way that is against its best interests we will leave the union."

Of course, in the current political climate in the UK the above would have been suicide for May - but what has transpired is not any better. At least the above would have brought a bit of honesty to the situation, and the clearly uninformed electorate might take notice.

Professor Moriarty

Fratton Fred wrote: »

They didn't say that though. That's where they were tricky.

The Bus stated that the UK send the EU £350m per week...Lets fund the NHS instead.

The UK does send the EU £350m per week, but the eu sends a chunk of it back, so that is a gross figure. It isn't a lie though.

Lets fund the NHS instead. Admirable sentiment. It doesn't say how much.




politicians don't lie do they, they are usually too clever for that.





if either of you have a problem with my posts, report them.

If you make unsubstantiated claims with nothing to back them up like "They lie" or "She back stabbed her way to PM", then being asked to support that statement is fairly straight forward.

Here's two quotes from Theresa May:

April 2016: Remaining inside the European Union does make us more secure, it does make us more prosperous and it does make us more influential beyond our shores.

May 2017: The promise of Brexit is great – the opportunities before us enormous.

Which of these is "deliberately misleading"?

Fratton Fred

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

A real leader faces down the mob and tells them when they are wrong.

She should have said "The electorate has voted for something which is not in the best interests of the nation. What we have voted for will isolate us, will mean some will lose their jobs and the vast majority will be poorer. We are going to investigate why this has happened and address the reasons for it. We will address inequality, and we will no longer lay the blame for uncomfortable domestic decisions on foreigners or outside institutions. We are no longer going to tolerate a hate filled press and allow it to go unchallenged.

If, at the end of this process, the electorate still wants to act in a way that is against its best interests we will leave the union."

Of course, in the current political climate in the UK the above would have been suicide for May - but what has transpired is not any better. At least the above would have brought a bit of honesty to the situation, and the clearly uninformed electorate might take notice.

seriously? That is just fantasy stuff. Who would have stood up and said that?

jobbridge4life

Fratton Fred wrote: »

seriously? That is just fantasy stuff. Who would have stood up and said that?

eh...

any Irish government?

Fratton Fred

jobbridge4life wrote: »

eh...

any Irish government?

No, because that would be negativity and you know what Irish politicians think of negativity

"Sitting on the sidelines, cribbing and moaning is a lost opportunity. I don't know how people who engage in that don't commit suicide because frankly the only thing that motivates me is being able to actively change something."

oppenheimer1

Fratton Fred wrote: »

seriously? That is just fantasy stuff. Who would have stood up and said that?

Not Theresa May anyway, she couldn't even debate her own manifesto.

Irish governments in the not too distant past have had to break tough and unpalatable messages to the electorate in the face of huge opposition. They did so because it was in the national interest, even at huge political cost.

Fratton Fred

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Irish governments in the not too distant past have had to break tough and unpalatable messages to the electorate in the face of huge opposition. They did so because it was in the national interest, even at huge political cost.

In a country where everybody is in the same boat.

Telling half the country that the other half just ****ed it up for them isn't exactly a great idea.

Lemming

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Telling half the country that the other half just ****ed it up for them isn't exactly a great idea.

But it's cold hard reality. Not to mention absolutely true.

Tell me - if you can Fred; without answering with a question - which would you prefer? Would you like to have cold, hard reality pointed out to you by your mates, or have cold, hard reality suddenly appear from seemingly "nowhere" and smash your face in?

Capt'n Midnight

murphaph wrote: »

We get the economic benefits but I genuinely don't think most Irish people are in favour of "ever closer union". We like the EU because we do better inside it than we could ever do outside it and we know this. We have no former empire to look back on with rose tinted glasses, but we don't really feel the non-economic benefits the EU has brought (peace and stability after a terrible war that left us largely unscathed in the Republic).

Like a lot of the Eastern Europeans we don't want to go back to being in thrall to a larger neighbour.

EU working time directive, EU health and safety, roaming like home, free movement of goods and services etc.

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, unlike the Government of the 5th largest economy on the planet.

If the pound falls any further France and Italy will be arguing over that one.



Germany's economy is Strong and Stable

Meanwhile
DUP source says talks with Tories 'not proceeding as expected'

Fratton Fred

Lemming wrote: »

But it's cold hard reality. Not to mention absolutely true.

Tell me - if you can Fred; without answering with a question - which would you prefer? Would you like to have cold, hard reality pointed out to you by your mates, or have cold, hard reality suddenly appear from seemingly "nowhere" and smash your face in?

Brexit won't smash any body in the face though. It's not as it the clock will tick past midnight and suddenly there are borders up, all immigrants have left and all the factories have stopped working because they can no longer export.

For those that voted remain, the worst has already happened, for those that voted leave, well they probably don't understand anyway.

The PM telling half the country the other half ****ed up their lives serves no purpose and being overly negative just makes you look un committed when there is a very serious job to be done.

steddyeddy

Seriously Fred it's doubtful that the worst has happened.

Geuze

I apologise if this has been asked and answered already, but what is the difference between a hard and soft Brexit?

Norway-solution, EEA membership, staying in SEM = soft Brexit?

Leaving SEM and customs union = hard Brexit?

Is that correct?

ancapailldorcha

Geuze wrote: »

I apologise if this has been asked and answered already, but what is the difference between a hard and soft Brexit?

Norway-solution, EEA membership, staying in SEM = soft Brexit?

Leaving SEM and customs union = hard Brexit?

Is that correct?

Basically, whether or not the UK stays within the single market and the customs union. If it does, it will have to pay for the privilege, accept all of the EU's regulations with no say in the matter as well as free movement of people.

A hard Brexit would involve a complete severing of ties except for whatever Davis and his team can negotiate for. The EU27 have been firm in that there will be no cherrypicking of benefits.

steddyeddy

I don't see either side caving on freedom of movement. Hammond said they're leaving the single market and customs union. That is a hard Brexit.

kingchess

Hard brexit is like a hard divorce where one partner moves out and a soft brexit is where one partner moves out as far as the spare bedroom and has the use of the kitchen and bathroom,

Fratton Fred

steddyeddy wrote: »

Seriously Fred it's doubtful that the worst has happened.

You know what I mean. For those that voted to remain, the unthinkable is happening, they already expect doomsday to happen.

Fratton Fred

kingchess wrote: »

Hard brexit is like a hard divorce where one partner moves out and a soft brexit is where one partner moves out as far as the spare bedroom and has the use of the kitchen and bathroom,

And still pays the mortgage.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

You know what I mean. For those that voted to leave, the unthinkable is happening, they already expect doomsday to happen.

Why would those who voted to leave expect doomsday?

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

Why would those who voted to leave expect doomsday?

That was a typo, now corrected.

Sand

It looks like the talks began as they will likely continue over the next few months. The EU so far seem to be fair, but firm and very well prepared. The UK are going to regret wasting the last 12 months blustering about having a 'Cake and eat it Brexit' and fighting a wholly incompetent election. I expect pressure will grow on May, Davis and BoJo as a narrative emerges of the amateurish UK team capitulating to the EU. They cant fool all of the people all of the time.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

In a country where everybody is in the same boat.

Telling half the country that the other half just ****ed it up for them isn't exactly a great idea.

Telling all the country that everything is going to be sunshine and rainbows when its clearly not isnt exactly a great idea either. May shirked her responsibilities as leader by encouraging a belief in a simplistic and irrational view of what was possible simply because it served her own short term interests. The irony is May hasn't and never could benefit from her approach in the long run. The brick wall of reality in the shape of the EU was just waiting around the corner.

Now, if May wont level with the people of the UK, Barnier will. He has already made it clear that the UK has to make concessions, the EU does not. That will come as a huge shock to Brexiteers, but its how things work when you are negotiating with an economic power that is several times bigger than you are. May could have prepared the UK for this, and gone in with a more serious chance of a positive outcome for the UK.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

That was a typo, now corrected.

A very Freudian slip Fred but I wouldn't have thought political chaos and a 15% drop in sterling before they even start talking about it was something "unthinkably" brilliant to be happy about.

Capt'n Midnight

Newsnight
Senior Tories talking about blocking a Hard Brexit by Parliament requesting an extension to Article 50


Also
Bank of England governor Mark Carney
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40338570

"Before long, we will all begin to find out the extent to which Brexit is a gentle stroll along a smooth path to a land of cake and consumption," he said.

Following Mr Carney's comments, the pound fell about 0.4% against the dollar to trade at $1.2682.

The Bank governor warned that monetary policy, which is controlled by the Bank of England, "cannot prevent the weaker real income growth likely to accompany the transition to new trading arrangements with the EU".

But he said the Bank's policy could influence how "the hit to incomes is distributed between job losses and price rises".

Lord Heseltine saying Hard Brexit is dead and not ever sure of leaving
earlier he said http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/conservative-voters-dying-off-lord-michael-heseltine-tory-part-elderly-support-base-pensioners-a7798386.html

‘One thing which is just worth having in mind: 2 per cent of the older part of the electorate die every year - they are 70 per cent Conservative’

and a reminder

UK car manufacturing generated £77.5bn of turnover last year and accounted for 12% of all goods exports, according to the trade group.

wes

Fratton Fred wrote: »

They didn't say that though. That's where they were tricky.

The funny thing is that it doesn't matter a damn. People expect 350 million for the NHS, as that is what they think was promised, and in fairness Brexiters only have themselves to blame for that.

Zubeneschamali

Fratton Fred wrote: »

For those that voted remain, the worst has already happened

What? The UK hasn't even entered a recession!

Capt'n Midnight

Fratton Fred wrote: »

For those that voted remain, the worst has already happened,

The governor of the Bank of England http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40338570

said the Bank's policy could influence how "the hit to incomes is distributed between job losses and price rises".

mickoneill31

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

What? The UK hasn't even entered a recession!

I don't agree with Fred that people against Brexit think the worst has already happened.

A couple of months after the referendum the Brexiters were saying Remoaners were wrong and it was all Project Fear and that nothing bad had happened.

A couple of points about that

1: An economy doesn't change in a month or two. The economy already had a certain momentum and that takes a long time to change. We're seeing some results of that now.

2: The Bank of England took action to calm or slow down affects from the referendum.

3: Brexit hasn't happened and won't until March 2019 at the earliest.

So for me, I don't think the worst has happened at all. I think it's going to get worse no matter how capable the UK government is. How bad it gets depends on their competence. I'm not hugely confident in that going on the last years performance.
Theresa May is still saying that "No deal is better than a bad deal". Depends how bad the deal is. I would say that "No deal is better than a catastrophic deal". It's probably not catchy enough for the conservatives.

No matter what they get I think it's a bad deal. They had the good deal and voted that out. That's just my opinion though. No deal means that citizens of the UK that live in Europe and vice versa are in limbo, open skies is shagged, the ports and customs arrangements are a mess, etc. etc.

ArmaniJeanss

Fred is clearly saying that if you were a strong Remainer then the Leave result is the worst thing that can happen, purely in the sense of absolute shock and horror that you would have had as the result came in (or woke up to it next morning). Nothing that will follow, bad as it could get, will be as much of a jolt, or even come as much of a surprise to any Remainer.

I tend to agree with Fred in this instance.

Thomas__

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

What? The UK hasn't even entered a recession!

I don't agree with Fred that people against Brexit think the worst has already happened.

A couple of months after the referendum the Brexiters were saying Remoaners were wrong and it was all Project Fear and that nothing bad had happened.

A couple of points about that

1: An economy doesn't change in a month or two. The economy already had a certain momentum and that takes a long time to change. We're seeing some results of that now.

2: The Bank of England took action to calm or slow down affects from the referendum.

3: Brexit hasn't happened and won't until March 2019 at the earliest.

So for me, I don't think the worst has happened at all. I think it's going to get worse no matter how capable the UK government is. How bad it gets depends on their competence. I'm not hugely confident in that going on the last years performance.
Theresa May is still saying that "No deal is better than a bad deal". Depends how bad the deal is. I would say that "No deal is better than a catastrophic deal". It's probably not catchy enough for the conservatives.

No matter what they get I think it's a bad deal. They had the good deal and voted that out. That's just my opinion though. No deal means that citizens of the UK that live in Europe and vice versa are in limbo, open skies is shagged, the ports and customs arrangements are a mess, etc. etc.

The newest Invention by the UK govt is now to call on EU citizens living in the UK to Register:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/20/eu-citizens-in-britain-to-be-asked-to-register-for-post-brexit-Status

The government is preparing to announce a registration process for the estimated 3 million EU citizens living in the UK, as a first step towards regularising their legal status post-Brexit.
...
Nicolas Hatton, co-founder of grassroots campaign group the3million, said the government’s protracted position that EU citizens could be “bargaining chips” in Brexit talks and Theresa May’s refusal to offer any details on the Conservative party’s position had fostered deep suspicion among EU citizens.
“If the registration process is not going to entitle them to residency, they won’t do it. People will be sceptical and think it will be used to foul their applications,” he said. “They just won’t bother to register – they will see it as pointless.”
...
She has spent six months working behind the scenes with the3million and the British in Europe, a coalition of groups representing Britons on the continent.
                               
Europeans working in the UK talk about their contributions to British society and their worries about the prospect of Brexit
                
               

“People don’t trust the UK government. The mood among EU citizens has changed. You can see it on the forums on Facebook. Before it was ‘I hope they let us stay’, but now it’s ‘I’ll believe it when I see it’. People have put up with so much pain in the last year, there is now a general mistrust of the Home Office,” said Hawkins.
...

First Up

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Fred is clearly saying that if you were a strong Remainer then the Leave result is the worst thing that can happen, purely in the sense of absolute shock and horror that you would have had as the result came in (or woke up to it next morning). Nothing that will follow, bad as it could get, will be as much of a jolt, or even come as much of a surprise to any Remainer.

I tend to agree with Fred in this instance.

Nothing should come as a surprise to anyone who has thought about it properly but that doesn't mean the UK has hit bottom - it has barely started.