Brexit Referendum Superthread

mickoneill31

First Up wrote: »

Nothing should come as a surprise to anyone who has thought about it properly but that doesn't mean the UK has hit bottom - it has barely started.

I dunno. Before the Brexit vote I hadn't a notion about issues for airlines or the ports or issues for family members of EU citizens living in the UK.
What I was aware of was enough for me to think Remain was the correct way to go. Even stuff like hauliers leaving Donegal having to enter and exit the UK to get to Dublin is a major issue for some people but we didn't think much about it before the vote.
Its just snowballing now.

But your point is right. I hadn't thought about it properly like some voters. (e.g sovereignty, bendy bananas, the NHS bus etc. are reasons given by some voters for voting to leave. )

Zubeneschamali

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Theresa May is still saying that "No deal is better than a bad deal".

I think May should make it clearer how bad this bad deal is.

"No deal is better than crucifixion"

"Crucifixion's a doddle!"

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

Nothing should come as a surprise to anyone who has thought about it properly but that doesn't mean the UK has hit bottom - it has barely started.

the surprise was the leave won. Not even the vote leave campaign thought it would.

he reaction of the markets ( who are paid vast sums not to be wrong) shows exactly what a shock it was.

Fratton Fred

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think May should make it clearer how bad this bad deal is.

"No deal is better than crucifixion"

"Crucifixion's a doddle!"

then that gives away the governments walk away point. In a negotiation, you can never give away your final position at the start, otherwise that effectively becomes the starting point.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

the surprise was the leave won. Not even the vote leave campaign thought it would.


he reaction of the markets ( who are paid vast sums not to be wrong) shows exactly what a shock it was.

You have said that the worst has already happened. Am I correct in interpreting this as meaning the shock over the result is as bad as it will get and that concerns over the consequences of Brexit are over-stated?

ambro25

Fratton Fred wrote: »

then that gives away the governments walk away point. In a negotiation, you can never give away your final position at the start, otherwise that effectively becomes the starting point.

The UK government's walk-away point is well-known through Ms May's own proclamations of the past 12 months or so: the jurisdiction of the CJEU.

In a nutshell, that means 'outside the Customs Union', hence outside everything. Save for a potential agreement or two, e.g. about security cooperation, everything else is trade-related to a greater or lesser extent, and therefore CJEU-bound. E.g. Open Skies, EURATOM, EMA <...>.

Davis might be trying to hold his cards close to his chest (and I say 'might', because last Monday's effort was not exactly a demonstration of stellar negotiating aptitude). Problem is, his cards are made of Perspex.

That said, I think he's finally understood (or is that more 'admitted'?) that Barnier is not bluffing, the EU is absolutely ready and willing to let the UK take itself out of the EU, on its a55 with no deal. If that is the case, well I'd call it negotiating progress.

Still, it's too late for much of the UK IP profession. We're haemorrhaging (European bound-) Asian & US business to German competitors. Many are misrepresenting that UK firms won't be able to handle European patent work after Brexit (which is wrong, but the vast majority of non-EU clients don't know better, and our PR is uncoordinated and individually drowned). That's on top of Asian & US work that's been pro-actively rerouted to Germany, France & Ireland already to keep a single address for service for European portfolios including patents, trademarks and designs.

I'm just back from another trip to Europe (was in Barca in May), talking to the French, Belgians & Swiss...and it's f grim. Exchange rate advantage counts for SFA, it's drowned by admin costs at the client end, of maintaining UK address for service as an 'extra': it's just not worth their while talking to Paul in UK about patents and Gunter in Germany about the rest, it's easier and cheaper to talk to Gunter about the lot, so sack Paul and transfer the caseload.

It was all the professional courtesy my fellow continental practitioners could extend to me, to not LOL in my face. As a staunch remainer EU immigrant fighting the good fight for UK plc, it doesn't get much more grating than when feeling compelled to put a spirited defence and a brave face on the UK (-profession) in reply to the (Brexit-related-) jibes.

That I enjoyed a fellow compatriot practicing in the US as a co-presenter (who therefore got to shoulder the rest of the (Trump-related-) banter), was scant consolation.

Casting my mind back to Charles de Gaulle passport control this weekend (flew there from the UK last Saturday, back to the UK yesterday)...I think every Leave voter should be made to go through it at least once (arriving or departing, same situation), through the non-EU passport queue (whilst looking longingly at the 'EU passports' queue), to sample a little bit of the Brexit delights to come :pac:

Fratton Fred

ambro25 wrote: »

Casting my mind back to Charles de Gaulle passport control this weekend (flew there from the UK last Saturday, back to the UK yesterday)...I think every Leave voter should be made to go through it at least once (arriving or departing, same situation), through the non-EU passport queue (whilst looking longingly at the 'EU passports' queue), to sample a little bit of the Brexit delights to come :pac:

Its a pretty horrendous place landing as an eu national, I'm not sure I would wish going through the non eu queue on anyone....except maybe Nigel Farage:pac:

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

You have said that the worst has already happened. Am I correct in interpreting this as meaning the shock over the result is as bad as it will get and that concerns over the consequences of Brexit are over-stated?

I thought I had made it pretty clear.

In terms of the Sterling value, traders won't get caught out like that again, so i would be very surprised if we see any big crashes such as the one immediately after the referendum.

After that, no one knows what will happen, because we don't know what the final agreement will be. All we have so far is warnings of what could be. What is certain though, is that no one is gambling on anything in the UK until the negotiations are over.

Water John

That could well mean, the UK sitting going nowhere for 5/7 years.

Calina

Fratton Fred wrote: »

ambro25 wrote: »

Casting my mind back to Charles de Gaulle passport control this weekend (flew there from the UK last Saturday, back to the UK yesterday)...I think every Leave voter should be made to go through it at least once (arriving or departing, same situation), through the non-EU passport queue (whilst looking longingly at the 'EU passports' queue), to sample a little bit of the Brexit delights to come :pac:

Its a pretty horrendous place landing as an eu national, I'm not sure I would wish going through the non eu queue on anyone....except maybe Nigel Farage:pac:

Ime it is no worse than Heathrow and often much better. Security in CDG is less awful than Dublin too. I seem to be a rare case but CDG is by no means the worst airport to transit simply because LHR is worse.

Anyway leavers never leave the country. Apparently. Otherwise they would have valued the ease of movement.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This has appeared on my Facebook feed:



Seems to be overly ambitious to me.

Just a small point.

'Strengthen the Union' means quite different things for the Remainers than for the Brexiteers. Brexiteers are talking about the union as in the United Kingdom, while the Remainers mean the European Union.

During the Sottish Ref, the pro Remainers (that is against independence) said that Scotland would be forced out of the EU if they voted for Independence. Those same supporters are now the Brexiteers that are forcing Scotland out of the EU despite Scotland voting to remain. Brexiteers want the Scottish Independence vote to be re-run.

Ironic. Just goes to show how useless a referendum is in judging an issue.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

I thought I had made it pretty clear.

You said "for those that voted Remain, the worst has already happened."

Seeing as nothing much has happened yet (including the negotiations, never mind Brexit itself), I am curious about how you came to that belief.

Fratton Fred

Calina wrote: »

Ime it is no worse than Heathrow and often much better. Security in CDG is less awful than Dublin too. I seem to be a rare case but CDG is by no means the worst airport to transit simply because LHR is worse.

Anyway leavers never leave the country. Apparently. Otherwise they would have valued the ease of movement.

Dublin is very good these days, they've modernised it. I found CDG to be very old fashioned, but that could just be the terminal I landed at.

At least it has a good rail link to the city centre though.

But yes, I would guess most Brexiters only do two weeks in Marbella every year, so don't value the ease of traveling around the eu. That's why I'm considering getting an Irish passport.

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

You said "for those that voted Remain, the worst has already happened."

Seeing as nothing much has happened yet (including the negotiations, never mind Brexit itself), I am curious about how you came to that belief.

You've obviously missed the deep despair and disbelief lots of remainers went through 12 months ago.

My name is URL

Interesting choice of hat by the queen today!

https://i.redd.it/xmsu5z5i805z.jpg

Trolling level - Royal

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

You've obviously missed the deep despair and disbelief lots of remainers went through 12 months ago.

Are you planning to support or explain your statement that June 23 last year was as bad as it is going to get?

Water John

Wonder do the retired UK citizens, domiciled in Spain and who voted for Brexit, still of that mind.

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

Are you planning to support or explain your statement that June 23 last year was as bad as it is going to get?

I have explained my point three times now, as has another poster who got it exactly.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Less of the lol comments please.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

I have explained my point three times now, as has another poster who got it exactly.

You have said that the referendum result was a shock and distressing to those who voted remain and I agree.

That is not the same as saying it was the worst it will get, the logical extrapolation of which is that it can only get better.

I expect it to get an awful lot worse and I am asking if you accept this, or if you really think the UK is now on an upward trajectory (and if you do, maybe tell us why.)

Its a perfectly fair and reasonably follow up to your statement and I'd be interested in your answer

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

You have said that the referendum result was a shock and distressing to those who voted remain and I agree.

That is not the same as saying it was the worst it will get, the logical extrapolation of which is that it can only get better.

I expect it to get an awful lot worse and I am asking if you accept this, or if you really think the UK is now on an upward trajectory (and if you do, maybe tell us why.)

Its a perfectly fair and reasonably follow up to your statement and I'd be interested in your answer

My point was pretty clear i thought, but you seem to be deliberately mis interpreting it to score points or such like.

The UK has a long way to go and in my opinion, the economy will shrink or at best, stagnate, before it goes up and presuming it does eventually go up, it will be some time. But that isn't what I was saying and I made it very clear.

The Sterling price has probably gone as low as it will go, unless something major happens, because the markets don't want to get caught out again and most traders would be waiting to find more information on the final deal before deciding whether to sell further, or invest.

One of the things I think TM has done over her time as PM, is to shock the city as much as possible, so that the picture painted is the worst possible one imaginable. That way, all the bad news is out of the way and in theory, everything we hear from now on can only be good news..in theory.

.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

The UK has a long way to go and in my opinion, the economy will shrink or at best, stagnate, before it goes up and presuming it does eventually go up, it will be some time. But that isn't what I was saying and I made it very clear.

You have now - thanks.

Capt'n Midnight

My name is URL wrote: »

Interesting choice of hat by the queen today!

https://i.redd.it/xmsu5z5i805z.jpg

Trolling level - Royal

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40345280

The Queen arrived at Parliament in a car, rather than horse-drawn carriage
There was no royal procession into the House of Lords chamber and the Queen wore "day dress" rather than robes
Her crown was driven to the Lords in its own car
It was the first state opening with "reduced ceremonial elements" since 1974
This was agreed because of timing issues caused by the snap election - rehearsals clashed with Saturday's Trooping the Colour event.

1974 was Harold Wilson

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

You have now - thanks.

Not really though, because you just wanted me to say that the economy is ****ed so you could give yourself a little pat on the back.

Lots of people don't care too much about the economy, but do care, quite passionately about freedom of movement and the general feeling of togetherness the eu project has brought about.

Being able to travel and work freely across Europe is a gift that has been taken away from future generations and to a lot of people, that is the worst thing that can happen.

Who cares if a few less cars get sold, or if Amazon have to finally pay taxes for what they sell in the UK. This is the 21st century, we should be taking down borders, not building them.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

Not really though, because you just wanted me to say that the economy is ****ed so you could give yourself a little pat on the back.

My only issue with you was your statement that the worst has already happened. There is a lot worse to come and it will probaly hurt Brexiteers more than Remainers because the latter will at least have some understanding of what is going on.

I really don't give a rats if people voted to leave because of immigration, bendy bananas, metrication or nostalgia for the empire.

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

My only issue with you was your statement that the worst has already happened. There is a lot worse to come and it will probaly hurt Brexiteers more than Remainers because the latter will at least have some understanding of what is going on.

I really don't give a rats if people voted to leave because of immigration, bendy bananas, metrication or nostalgia for the empire.

In your opinion.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

In your opinion.

An informed one.

ancapailldorcha

Fratton Fred wrote: »

In your opinion.

First Up wrote: »

An informed one.

Cut this out both of you.

PeadarCo

Fratton Fred wrote:

Lots of people don't care too much about the economy, but do care, quite passionately about freedom of movement and the general feeling of togetherness the eu project has brought about.

I think the whole freedom of movement/immigration issue is something people forget about. For some brexiters its the main issue lowering immigration and economy be dammed. For some hardcore people how the economy performs is irrelevant providing immigration goes down.

oppenheimer1

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The Sterling price has probably gone as low as it will go, unless something major happens, because the markets don't want to get caught out again and most traders would be waiting to find more information on the final deal before deciding whether to sell further, or invest.


.

I think your right there. If sterliing falls further the BoE will be forced to raise interest rates to counter inflation. This will give the pound a price floor.

The housing market, particularly the high end stuff is slowing significantly in London. I mean when you have developers throwing in cars into the deal just to avoid reducing the headline price and it's still not shifting there is a problem. A rise in rates would almost certainly stall the housing market, this in turn would have serious consequences for London and the South east.