Brexit Referendum Superthread

Peregrinus

PeadarCo wrote: »

I think the whole freedom of movement/immigration issue is something people forget about. For some brexiters its the main issue lowering immigration and economy be dammed. For some hardcore people how the economy performs is irrelevant providing immigration goes down.

It's not that people forget about it; it's that they prefer not to talk about it. Particularly in the Tory party, since it's one of the fault lines along which the party may fracture when they have to back, or refuse to back, whatever Brexit deal is hammered out.

When May stopped all the "Brexit means Brexit!" and "Red-White-and-Blue Brexit!" guff and actually got off the fence and outlined a vision of the Brexit she would aim for, her priorities included "control of our own laws" (i.e. none of this jurisdiction of the ECJ nonsense) and "control of immigration". But for Hammond, the priorities are "promoting trade", "protecting jobs" and "remaining open to talent". He doesn't even mention Teresa's hobby-horses.

There's an obvious tension there, and at some point the Tory party is going to have to choose between these two competing visions of Brexit. And since everybody expects the process of making that choice will leave the walls, floor and ceiling coated with somebody's gore, guts and gobbets of flesh, nobody's keen to bring it on just yet.

First Up

PeadarCo wrote:

I think the whole freedom of movement/immigration issue is something people forget about. For some brexiters its the main issue lowering immigration and economy be dammed. For some hardcore people how the economy performs is irrelevant providing immigration goes down.

I wonder how many of these hardcore people understand that leaving the EU doesn't affect immigration from the Indian sub continent, the Caribbean and Africa?

First Up

Peregrinus wrote:

There's an obvious tension there, and at some point the Tory party is going to have to choose between these two competing visions of Brexit.

And pity the poor civil servants drowning under a tidal wave of change while getting conflicting messages from the politicians.

Ministries and government agencies are only half way through discovering all the implications of Brexit and are realising they are hopelessly under-resourced to deal with them.

whatstherush

Jesus wept, a farmer on BBC radio this morning, who voted leave (sovereignty in'it) requires 2.5k pickers for his fruit, which are all currently EU migrants and is now wondering what he's going to do in 2019.

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/877786643473735680

UK Eurosceptism is a belief system more akin to a cult then to do with any rational complaints about the EU when it can engender that level of cognitive dissonance in a person.

FrancieBrady

whatstherush wrote: »

Jesus wept, a farmer on BBC radio this morning, who voted leave (sovereignty in'it) requires 2.5k pickers for his fruit, which are all currently EU migrants and is now wondering what he's going to do in 2019.

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/877786643473735680

UK Eurosceptism is a belief system more akin to a cult then to do with any rational complaints about the EU when it can engender that level of cognitive dissonance in a person.

I am abroad at the moment and that just got played on a breakfast news prgramme here, incredulity and laughter greeted it.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am abroad at the moment and that just got played on a breakfast news prgramme here, incredulity and laughter greeted it.

What country, as a matter of interest?

Zubeneschamali

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Being able to travel and work freely across Europe is a gift that has been taken away from future generations and to a lot of people, that is the worst thing that can happen.

It hasn't happened yet - negotiations have only been going for one day so far. I wouldn't be too surprised if the EU were to do something generous in this area

It benefits the EU to have the relatively skilled and educated (well, apart from in languages) UK workforce mobile across the EU.

Even if May is determined to scare EU workers out of the UK, it would still be in the EU's best interests to allow UK workers generous terms.

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote:

It hasn't happened yet - negotiations have only been going for one day so far. I wouldn't be too surprised if the EU were to do something generous in this area

UK pensioners won't be told to leave Spain or France. But they will be asked to pay for the medical services they currently enjoy as EU citizens.

Thomas__

whatstherush wrote: »

Jesus wept, a farmer on BBC radio this morning, who voted leave (sovereignty in'it) requires 2.5k pickers for his fruit, which are all currently EU migrants and is now wondering what he's going to do in 2019.

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/877786643473735680

UK Eurosceptism is a belief system more akin to a cult then to do with any rational complaints about the EU when it can engender that level of cognitive dissonance in a person.

That´s just one example for the shortsightedness and also stupidity of some Brexiteers. Now some of them will have their awakening when facing reality, which is strongly the opposite form the lies the leading Brexit politicians told them. Maybe someone recommends him to hire "local British People" and let him see where he´ll be left with that, which means either paying higher wages or doing the job on his own by himself.

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote:

Even if May is determined to scare EU workers out of the UK, it would still be in the EU's best interests to allow UK workers generous terms.

Anything agreed will be reciprocal and the EU will not countenance anything that differentiates between citizens of EU member states.

Sam Russell

First Up wrote: »

UK pensioners won't be told to leave Spain or France. But they will be asked to pay for the medical services they currently enjoy as EU citizens.

Actually they already do.

Under the terms of the EU health insurance, the costs of treatment is charged back to the parent country. Th UK is very bad at doing this and fails to charge back the majority of these costs because the NHS does no have a charging mechanism built into it.

However, the UK may decide to leave this system, which would be bad for those UK passport holders that are residents in EU countries. However, the converse is probably not so bad, as EU migrants are usually in work, and healthy. Besides, the NHS s n charge users as a rule.

Also, retirees are usually on a fixed income and (for UK retirees) that income is denominated in GBP which has tanked in the last two years. That pressure alone may cause many to be checking out of their retirement homes and returning to Blighty.

We shall see what comes out of this.

Thomas__

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Being able to travel and work freely across Europe is a gift that has been taken away from future generations and to a lot of people, that is the worst thing that can happen.

It hasn't happened yet - negotiations have only been going for one day so far. I wouldn't be too surprised if the EU were to do something generous in this area

It benefits the EU to have the relatively skilled and educated (well, apart from in languages) UK workforce mobile across the EU.

Even if May is determined to scare EU workers out of the UK, it would still be in the EU's best interests to allow UK workers generous terms.

In some ways, the whole Brexit negoation Thing and the Topics involved remind me on the following book which I am currently reading:

http://www.books.ie/a-diplomatic-history-of-ireland-1948-1949-the-republic-the-commonwealth-and-NATO

A Diplomatic History of Ireland 1948-1949: The Republic, the Commonwealth and Nato by Ian McCabe

In 1948, the Taoiseach, John Costello with no consultation of his cabinet, announced to the world press that his government was intending to sever Ireland's last remaining constitutional link with the British Commonwealth. This book delves into the reaction not only of the British government but also the government here and how the continual problem of Partition in the North debilitated and permeated Costello's Coalition government.
This book will explain the knock-on effects that this had with international relations with America, Britain, Canada, Nato and the Commonwealth itself.

Although the subject is quite another one, but the similarities between Ireland vs the UK and Commonwealth then and the UK vs the EU now are in some ways striking. In the end, Ireland, the UK and the Commonwealth settled all the issues rather well, as this settlement lasts to this day and Ireland still being not a member of the Commonwealth anymore since.

In that time, threats and misunderstandings as well as opposing positions on either side occured as well, with the UK being more the part using threats than Ireland, but what probably has led to a positive end and settlement was the fact of the many Diaspora Irish living in the UK and of course in the other big Commonwealth countries like Canada, NZ and Australia.

I´m not inclined to think or even say that the UK vs EU issue will go down the same path, but if rationality prevails and the die-hard Brexiteers will not, there´s still a chance that things won´t be end up that worse as the die-hards like to have it.

The book itself is a very interesting one and recommendable to anybody who has an interest in the history of the Republic of Ireland, the very Republic that came into being after this on Easter Monday, 18. April 1949.

Calina

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Being able to travel and work freely across Europe is a gift that has been taken away from future generations and to a lot of people, that is the worst thing that can happen.

It hasn't happened yet - negotiations have only been going for one day so far. I wouldn't be too surprised if the EU were to do something generous in this area

It benefits the EU to have the relatively skilled and educated (well, apart from in languages) UK workforce mobile across the EU.

Even if May is determined to scare EU workers out of the UK, it would still be in the EU's best interests to allow UK workers generous terms.

The EU has generous arrangememts in place. We are where we are because the UK wants to be mean spirited.

First Up

Sam Russell wrote:

Actually they already do.

They are not asked for their credit card on admission. They will be after they cease to be EU citizens.

Fratton Fred

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

I think your right there. If sterliing falls further the BoE will be forced to raise interest rates to counter inflation. This will give the pound a price floor.

The housing market, particularly the high end stuff is slowing significantly in London. I mean when you have developers throwing in cars into the deal just to avoid reducing the headline price and it's still not shifting there is a problem. A rise in rates would almost certainly stall the housing market, this in turn would have serious consequences for London and the South east.

The housing market is stalling for a number of reasons, but mainly because that's what markets are supposed to do when they over heat. London and the surrounding commuter towns have seen massive increases over the past five or six years and people are being priced out of it, so the logical thing now is for the market to re adjust itself.

The Inflation thing is is a difficult one. As I have said before, there is adouble whammy going on. eurozone producers are getting a premium for their goods outside of Europe, because the euro is so low against the USD, which pushes prices up all over Europe. Now, because Sterling is relatively low against the euro and the USD, British producers are also getting the premiums from exporting to USD based markets, but also to euro based markets. Its going to be a difficult one to address.

Zubeneschamali

Calina wrote: »

The EU has generous arrangememts in place. We are where we are because the UK wants to be mean spirited.

Yes, but what I am saying is that even if the UK are going to be short-sighted and mean-spirited, it is STILL in the EU's selfish best interests to be generous to UK citizens.

It would also be a huge PR win for the EU, even inside the UK, holding out a hand to the young Remain population who are being dragged out of the EU against their will.

Peregrinus

I don't think it's going to come to that. It's actually in both sides' interests to be generous on this, and the only political downside - the risk of being accused of being "soft" - is avoided if they agree to be generous on a reciprocal basis. This should be one of the easier parts of the Brexit deal to settle. Expect a regime in which there's visa-free travel between EU and UK, and while EU and UK citizens may require work visas for one another's territories, work visas can be had for the asking. Or something like that.

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote:

Yes, but what I am saying is that even if the UK are going to be short-sighted and mean-spirited, it is STILL n the EUs selfish best interests to be generous to UK citizens.

The only issue that is an EU competence is complete freedom of movement for EU citizens in the UK and vice versa. That will be a condition of the UK staying in the Single Market or a Norway style arrangement.

If neither of those are agreed, then the UK can negotiate travel and immigration conditions with whoever it wants (and vice versa).

Fratton Fred

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't think it's going to come to that. It's actually in both sides' interests to be generous on this, and the only political downside - the risk of being accused of being "soft" - is avoided if they agree to be generous on a reciprocal basis. This should be one of the easier parts of the Brexit deal to settle. Expect a regime in which there's visa-free travel between EU and UK, and while EU and UK citizens may require work visas for one another's territories, work visas can be had for the asking. Or something like that.

That's pretty much what I am expecting, with a continuance of the existing Ireland/UK arrangements.

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't think it's going to come to that. It's actually in both sides' interests to be generous on this, and the only political downside - the risk of being accused of being "soft" - is avoided if they agree to be generous on a reciprocal basis. This should be one of the easier parts of the Brexit deal to settle. Expect a regime in which there's visa-free travel between EU and UK, and while EU and UK citizens may require work visas for one another's territories, work visas can be had for the asking. Or something like that.

Well, yes that sounds great but ....

The EU will expect that this regime will be overseen by the ECJ and that rights continue after the UK departs. They will also insist that the ECHR continue to apply to those citizens, again in perpetuity.

That is the problem facing the UK hard brexiteers - NO ECJ and NO ECHR.

ArmaniJeanss

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't think it's going to come to that. It's actually in both sides' interests to be generous on this, and the only political downside - the risk of being accused of being "soft" - is avoided if they agree to be generous on a reciprocal basis. This should be one of the easier parts of the Brexit deal to settle. Expect a regime in which there's visa-free travel between EU and UK, and while EU and UK citizens may require work visas for one another's territories, work visas can be had for the asking. Or something like that.

I think its a relatively easy sell for the UK to be seen to be generous to German, French, Spanish and Dutch visa seekers. Gets more problematic when it comes to Romanians and Bulgarians but presumably the EU would be unhappy at some of its member states being treated differently. And what would be the status of Montenegrins and Macedonians when those countries join the EU in the next decade?

ambro25

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't think it's going to come to that. It's actually in both sides' interests to be generous on this, and the only political downside - the risk of being accused of being "soft" - is avoided if they agree to be generous on a reciprocal basis. This should be one of the easier parts of the Brexit deal to settle. Expect a regime in which there's visa-free travel between EU and UK, and while EU and UK citizens may require work visas for one another's territories, work visas can be had for the asking. Or something like that.

Facetiously...in the above, you're in danger of forgetting the eating side of the British cakeonomics, under which the UK would want wide freedom for emigrating UK citizens, but checks and balances for immigrating EU citizens

FWIW, my money is on the UK proposing a 'relaxed' version of their current PBS system used for non-EU immigrants....shortly binned by Mr Davis, once advised of Mr Barnier's position, into something amounting to reciprocal freedom of movement in all but name.

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I think its a relatively easy sell for the UK to be seen to be generous to German, French, Spanish and Dutch visa seekers. Gets more problematic when it comes to Romanians and Bulgarians but presumably the EU would be unhappy at some of its member states being treated differently. And what would be the status of Montenegrins and Macedonians when those countries join the EU in the next decade?

Never mind the EU itself, the EU27 all stand equal before whatever deal gets eventually proposed, and I don't think I need to explain much about the likelihood of vetoes coming in from the Romanian and Bulgarian parliaments in your hypothesis...and tic-toc-tic-toc-tic-toc-tic-toc-<...>-29 March 2019, 23:59 does not care much for vetoes :cool:

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

FWIW, my money is on the UK proposing a 'relaxed' version of their current PBS system used for non-EU immigrants. Which will fly well :pac:
Never mind the EU itself, the EU27 all stand equal before whatever deal gets eventually proposed, and I don't think I need to explain much about the likelihood of vetoes coming in from the Romanian and Bulgarian parliaments in your hypothesis...and tic-toc-tic-toc-tic-toc-tic-toc-<...>-29 March 2019, 23:59 does not care much for vetoes :cool:

They're not all equal though. Brexit affects Ireland the most so the Irish government will need to be much more vocal than, say Bulgaria about the deal. The Eastern European countries will probably just want to ensure that free movement remains. Ireland needs to preserve access to the UK's market for its exports and, much more importantly, find a solution to the NI border issue. Spain also has Gibraltar to worry about. A hard border there won't do anyone any favors either.

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They're not all equal though. Brexit affects Ireland the most so the Irish government will need to be much more vocal than, say Bulgaria about the deal. The Eastern European countries will probably just want to ensure that free movement remains. Ireland needs to preserve access to the UK's market for its exports and, much more importantly, find a solution to the NI border issue. Spain also has Gibraltar to worry about. A hard border there won't do anyone any favors either.

With the clear benefit of hindsight, I should have said 'the EU27 all stand equal before whatever deal gets eventually proposed for parliamentary ratification'.

Your perspective in the above is about the negotiation, not the end product codifying its outcomes which I was on about, and which could (but hopefully won't) end up being vetoed by any of the EU Parliament and the national parliament of any of the EU27 (i.e. the draft "deal" which will coalesce the country-specific issues, so much the customs/trade ones of Ireland as the freedom-of-movement ones of Bulgaria/Romania, and incorporate discrete solutions to them all, into a same-for-all single document)

First Up

The land border and the sensitivities around the GFA and NI Assembly are unique to Ireland and will require specific measures. However beyond that, the terms of UK-EU trade and relations will be the same for Ireland as the other 26 EU members.

The UK will almost certainly try to use the close Irish/UK relations as leverage in the negotiations. Everyone knows this and will respond accordingly.

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

With the clear benefit of hindsight, I should have said 'the EU27 all stand equal before whatever deal gets eventually proposed for parliamentary ratification'.

Your perspective in the above is about the negotiation, not the end product codifying its outcomes which I was on about, and which could (but hopefully won't) end up being vetoed by any of the EU Parliament and the national parliament of any of the EU27 (i.e. the draft "deal" which will coalesce the country-specific issues, so much the customs/trade ones of Ireland as the freedom-of-movement ones of Bulgaria/Romania, and incorporate discrete solutions to them all, into a same-for-all single document)

I'd a quick google before I posted the post you've responded to here and one link read that 33 parliaments (including 6 regional parliaments) might have to ratify the EU-UK deal. I see what you were getting at.

CeilingFly

This from the Irish times today - best description so far of the new Theresa May

Macron swept by, the star of the show, to a racket of questions and camera clicks. Inside, Tusk welcomed both himself and Leo to their first meeting of the Council, where there was much continental kissing and manly handshakes, but not at the same time.

Then Theresa May, stiff and stern, a politician in kitten heels and on the edge of the abyss chuntered in. Imagine being the prime minister of the United Kingdom and having your political fate in the hands of the DUP.

Fratton Fred

EU citizens resident in the UK for five years, to get "settled eu status" and, it seems, the same access to welfare etc as British citizens.

Seems like a very sensible proposal.


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40376083

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

EU citizens resident in the UK for five years, to get "settled eu status" and, it seems, the same access to welfare etc as British citizens.

Its an opening offer. Has a way to go I think.

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

EU citizens resident in the UK for five years, to get "settled eu status" and, it seems, the same access to welfare etc as British citizens.

Seems like a very sensible proposal.


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40376083

A very nice proposal.