Brexit Referendum Superthread

Memnoch

steddyeddy wrote: »

A very nice proposal.

Essentially what Labour proposed during the election. Isn't it nice that at least part of one of the main party's manifestos is getting implemented?

An Ciarraioch

Ironically, Irish citizens would actually lose rights under the deal, unless the existing bilateral agreements (1949 Ireland Act in the UK's case) were confirmed.

oppenheimer1

Fratton Fred wrote: »

EU citizens resident in the UK for five years, to get "settled eu status" and, it seems, the same access to welfare etc as British citizens.

Seems like a very sensible proposal.


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40376083

On the face it seems a decent proposal but when you drill into the detail they propose that this will be enforced by British and not European courts.

This aspect of the proposal is unlikely to be accepted without amendment.

Jim2007

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Ironically, Irish citizens would actually lose rights under the deal, unless the existing bilateral agreements (1949 Ireland Act in the UK's case) were confirmed.

Since when did an Act of parliament become a bilateral agreement??

Jim2007

steddyeddy wrote: »

A very nice proposal.

Currently EU residents have the right to permanent residence status after five years so nothing new there. What is different is that they will now get a new status as opposed to the current standard. Now the U.K. has a history of different types of citizenship and of assigning various rights to these groups. So I would not find this very comforting at all.

An of course there is no way to ensure those rights are enforceable against a future act of parliament.

And of course there is nothing at all offered for anyone under five years.

I don't see anything new in this, it is just TM repeating the current status and hoping no one will notice. It does not address the key issue of guaranteeing of people's once BREXIT.

Peregrinus

Jim2007 wrote: »

Since when did an Act of parliament become a bilateral agreement??

Acts of Parliament are commonly used to give effect to bilateral agreements.

Jim2007

Peregrinus wrote: »

Acts of Parliament are commonly used to give effect to bilateral agreements.

Except in this case the act is not subject to the treaty of Rome.

Peregrinus

Jim2007 wrote: »

Except in this case the act is not subject to the treaty of Rome.

Nope. Currently Irish citizens in the UK enjoy a slightly better status than other EU citizens (and vice versa for UK citizens in Ireland). Ordinarily this would be a bit of a no-no, but of course it was already in place when Ireland and the UK joined in '73, and demanding that it be dismantled would have been a barrier to entry for both of them. Plus, of course, this was back in '73, before the Single European Act, before Lisbon, before the very concept of "EU citizen" was thought of. (It was just "national of another member state" back then.)

So, no, the current UK/Irish arrangements with respect to one another citizens aren't established under the Treaty of Rome. And, if the UK, as part of the Brexit deal, seeks to agree bilaterally with the EU an agreement on the status of one another's citizens, the question arises whether the EU will countenance a deal under which some EU nationals (the Irish) are accorded better status in he UK than others (everyone else).

But the answer is "yes, they will", because that's already in place, and therefore is workable and acceptable in practice, and because demanding that it be removed would bear heavily on Ireland, and there's no desire in Brussel to make Ireland suffer from Brexit any more than can be avoided.

Fratton Fred

Jim2007 wrote: »

Currently EU residents have the right to permanent residence status after five years so nothing new there. What is different is that they will now get a new status as opposed to the current standard. Now the U.K. has a history of different types of citizenship and of assigning various rights to these groups. So I would not find this very comforting at all.

EU citizens will have no rights other than those enjoyed by any foreign worker in to the UK post March 2019, so this may not be any improvement, but it does mean those rights will continue. Bit this isn't citizenship, this is residential status. there is nothing to prevent people from applying to become British Citizens

I would have thought "Nothing new" was what this was meant to be.

Jim2007 wrote: »

An of course there is no way to ensure those rights are enforceable against a future act of parliament.

as can any existing law.

Jim2007 wrote: »

And of course there is nothing at all offered for anyone under five years.

there is the chance to stay for five years and to enjoy settled status. No mention of a cut off date though. I would imagine this will be linked to certain conditions, such as working or in education etc.

BBC wrote:

Those arriving up until the point of departure would have a "grace period" - expected to be two years - to build up the same "UK settled status", she told EU leaders.

Jim2007 wrote: »

I don't see anything new in this, it is just TM repeating the current status and hoping no one will notice. It does not address the key issue of guaranteeing of people's once BREXIT.

This is still very high level, the actual detail will be discussed on Monday,
but what were you expecting? this gives people pretty much the same rights as they have now, which I thought was the whole point.

What we don't know yet, is what the EU's position for British Citizens is, which I hope will be laid out by the EU at the same meeting.

Fratton Fred

Memnoch wrote: »

Essentially what Labour proposed during the election. Isn't it nice that at least part of one of the main party's manifestos is getting implemented?

The Conservative Party ARE the main party.

Here's the election results, in case you missed them http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2017/results

Peregrinus

So far as I understaand it, Fred, May's proposals relate to EU citizens already living in the UK, plus those who may migrate to the UK between now and Brexit-day (or some date sooner than Brexit-day).

Essentially, what May is proposing that the UK will commit to this: the rights that are currently available to people who settle in the UK (whether or not they are EU citizens) will remain permanently available to EU citizens who are settled in the UK on Brexit-day, even if they are withdrawn from others.

I don't think she's proposing to commit that these rights will always be available to EU citizens who settle in the UK after Brexit-day. Nor is she saying anything about whether or on what terms EU citizens will be able to settle in the UK after Brexit-day.

Still, it is only the opening gambit in what is presumably intended to be a negotiating process. She's not going to lay out a a comprehensive set of commitments until she has some idea of what the EU is thinking of with respect to the treatment of UK citizens settled or settling in the future in the EU.

Fratton Fred

Peregrinus wrote: »

So far as I understaand it, Fred, May's proposals relate to EU citizens already living in the UK, plus those who may migrate to the UK between now and Brexit-day (or some date sooner than Brexit-day).

Essentially, what May is proposing that the UK will commit to this: the rights that are currently available to people who settle in the UK (whether or not they are EU citizens) will remain permanently available to EU citizens who are settled in the UK on Brexit-day, even if they are withdrawn from others.

I don't think she's proposing to commit that these rights will always be available to EU citizens who settle in the UK after Brexit-day. Nor is she saying anything about whether or on what terms EU citizens will be able to settle in the UK after Brexit-day.

Still, it is only the opening gambit in what is presumably intended to be a negotiating process.

That's my understanding. Extending these rights to all eu citizens is zero change to what we have now though. Something has to change, no matter how small.

Peregrinus

Fratton Fred wrote: »

That's my understanding. Extending these rights to all eu citizens is zero change to what we have now though. Something has to change, no matter how small.

Much has to change, if we take May's own statements seriously. One of her stated Brexit objectives is "control of immigration" - more specifically, "control of the number of people coming to Britain from the EU". I think (unless she climbs down) that must rule out any open-ended commitment affording EU citizens either a general right to settle in the EU, or a right to settle if they meet stated conditions. The UK can't control the numbers coming unless they retain the power to say at any point "that's enough - no more please" and close the gates.

Plus, another of her stated priorities is "control of our own laws", which she explicitly understands to include ending the jurisdiction of the ECJ. As long as the UK unilaterally sets its own migration laws, then disputes about them get thrashed out in the UK courts, all of which fits with May's objectives. But if the UK enters into any kind of treaty with the EU in which migration rights are prescribed (in both directions, presumably) then disputes about whether the UK (or the EU) is fulfilling the terms of the treaty end up being litigated in an international tribunal - most probably the ECJ but, if not them, some other tribunal, which would presumably be just as problematic with regard to May's objective of "control of our own laws".

(Obviously, that control of our own laws/no international courts thing is going to be a bit of a running sore. Everything the UK puts into its Brexit agreement with the EU becomes part of an international agreement, and can't be litigated exclusively in the UK courts. So this is going to raise its head with respect to more things than migration.)

May, I think, would like to put clear blue water between two questions that she would like to treat as entirely separate - the rights of EU citizens who came to the UK in exercise of a right they had at the time under EU law, and the rights of EU citizens who may in the future come to the UK in exercise of rights which may be conferred on them by UK immigration law. The problem is that she will also want to address the rights of UK citizens already in the EU or who may settle in the EU in the future, and once the Brexit agreement deals with post-Brexit migration at all, post-Brexit migration rights become a matter of supranational, rather than merely national, concern, and the basis for the sharp pre-Brexit/post-Brexit distinction disappears.

If May thinks haggling with the DUP to get a confidence-and-supply deal is complex, tedious and painful, she's about to be introduced to a whole new world of pain in Brussels!

Thomas__

whatstherush wrote: »

Jesus wept, a farmer on BBC radio this morning, who voted leave (sovereignty in'it) requires 2.5k pickers for his fruit, which are all currently EU migrants and is now wondering what he's going to do in 2019.

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/877786643473735680

UK Eurosceptism is a belief system more akin to a cult then to do with any rational complaints about the EU when it can engender that level of cognitive dissonance in a person.

There is more to this subject:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/22/farms-hit-by-labour-shortage-as-migrant-workers-shun-racist-uk

A 20% shortfall in migrant workers relied on to pick fruit and vegetables is blamed on Brexit making the UK seem ‘xenophobic’
...
There was a 17% shortfall in May, leaving some farms critically short of pickers, according to a new National Farmers Union (NFU) survey. The decline is blamed on Brexit, with the vote to depart the EU leaving the UK seen as “xenophobic” and “racist” by overseas workers, according to the director of a major agricultural recruitment company.
The UK requires about 80,000 seasonal workers to pick the vegetable and fruit harvest and virtually all come from eastern Europe. Just 14 of the 13,400 workers recruited between January and May this year were British, the NFU survey found. Three-quarters of the workers came from Bulgaria and Romania, and almost all the rest from other eastern European countries.
...
“The grim reality is that the perception from overseas is we are xenophobic, we’re racist, and the pound has plummeted too,” said John Hardman, director at Hops Labour Solutions, who also estimates a 20% shortage of workers. “We’ve gone with Brexit and that makes us look unfriendly.
...
Another large survey of salad and fruit farmers, released by the BBC on Thursday, found that 21% reported fewer workers than they needed in late May. Almost 80% of the growers said recruitment had been more difficult than last year, with 20% saying it had been the hardest for years.
...
Hardman said people who thought the shortage of farm labour could be filled by UK workers were “delusional”. He said: “There is no appetite in the UK labour pool for seasonal agricultural work.” The hospitality industry was more attractive for temporary work and unemployment is low in key areas, like Kent, he said.
...
In August 2016, some of the Britain’s biggest fruit and vegetable growers said that without seasonal migrant workers they would switch their production to other countries, where many already have large operations, or would switch to cereals which are harvested by machines.

One year after the Brexit Ref, the result is showing its impact on the economy of the UK and there is still more to come. The article shows the big difference between the wishful thinking of the Brexit politicians and the reality for farmers and other businesses who rely on workforce from abroad because the Brits themselves won´t take on those jobs.

The "offer" from yesterday by Mrs May is not enough:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/23/eu-leaders-uk-plan-citizens-rights-vague-inadequate

Fratton Fred

Thomas__ wrote: »

There is more to this subject:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/22/farms-hit-by-labour-shortage-as-migrant-workers-shun-racist-uk



One year after the Brexit Ref, the result is showing its impact on the economy of the UK and there is still more to come. The article shows the big difference between the wishful thinking of the Brexit politicians and the reality for farmers and other businesses who rely on workforce from abroad because the Brits themselves won´t take on those jobs.

The "offer" from yesterday by Mrs May is not enough:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/23/eu-leaders-uk-plan-citizens-rights-vague-inadequate

its the Guardian. May could have offered everyone in europe unconditional rights in the UK, for ever and €5,000 each and the Guardian would criticise her for not offering €10,000 each.

As usual, Angela Merkel seems to get it right when she says it is "a good start", but there was still a lot to do.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40377643

Calina

Fratton Fred wrote: »

its the Guardian. May could have offered everyone in europe unconditional rights in the UK, for ever and €5,000 each and the Guardian would criticise her for not offering €10,000 each.

As usual, Angela Merkel seems to get it right when she says it is "a good start", but there was still a lot to do.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40377643

Angela Merkel saying it is a good start is what we call diplomacy. But what May put on the table is what is already the situation for non-EU people looking for permanent residency. As such, it is no offer at all.

At some point, the UK will have to stop treating the other side of the negotiating table like fools. The EU have had something on the table for this for at least a month and they have already started outlining the issues which are likely to pose technical difficulties.

The one thing you cannot at all call it is a "generous" offer. And her proposal, as I understand it, does little to recognise the issues of British people living abroad/

All this would be fine but the underemployed British do not want to do the jobs which are already being freed up by the lack of migrant labour, and they are not generally qualified to do the other jobs which are starting to free up.

Sam Russell

A big problem with migration rights are that the EU will require the ECJ to oversee such rights, and such rights to be governed by the European Convention on Human Rights.

Unfortunately, TM has said previously that both of these are to be banished and it will be the English Courts that will decide the law on these matters. Unfortunately, TM did not accept the English High Court decision that Parliament had to decide Brexit, and appealed to the English Supreme Court, who also said she was wrong.

There is nothing in this 'offer'.

Jim2007

May's Proposal Dismissed as Pathetic

Apparently not a single comment or question from the 27 leaders at the presentation - along way short of why is required as set out in the EU position papers...

You have to wonder at the abilities and priorities of the U.K. side. You've got Davis on Monday fully accepting the EU position on Monday, May Thursday delivering a proposal the completely ignores the EU position paper and Hammond through out the week delivering his own version of BREXIT.

They are up against a very experienced with a detailed command of th facts and this faffing around can only end badly for them.

Jim2007

If May wants to avoid ECJ supervision then the only thing that might be acceptable is to grant full British citizenship to all EU residents and make it irrevocably.

Nody

Jim2007 wrote: »

If May wants to avoid ECJ supervision then the only thing that might be acceptable is to grant full British citizenship to all EU residents and make it irrevocably.

But that would make it impossible for her to discriminate against them later; which is the whole plan with giving them a own category and using wording such as "will be aiming to treat them" rather than guarantee equal treatment.

Fratton Fred

Jim2007 wrote: »

May's Proposal Dismissed as Pathetic

Apparently not a single comment or question from the 27 leaders at the presentation

Or in that article. It's been dismissed by a self proclaimed pressure group.

As a British citizen living in an eu country, if the government gave me that (albeit initial high level) assurance, I would be happy. But I haven't even had that yet.

Fratton Fred

Nody wrote: »

But that would make it impossible for her to discriminate against them later; which is the whole plan with giving them a own category and using wording such as "will be aiming to treat them" rather than guarantee equal treatment.

Could you share a copy of this "plan" so we can all read it?

mickoneill31

Fratton Fred wrote: »

As a British citizen living in an eu country, if the government gave me that (albeit initial high level) assurance, I would be happy. But I haven't even had that yet.

Its been week one of negotiation. The UK only made their position known yesterday. Maybe a bit early for the "even"

Fratton Fred

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Its been week one of negotiation. The UK only made their position known yesterday. Maybe a bit early for the "even"

and yet the UK government are getting grief for not having laid out a fully worded plan, detailed down to the nth degree.

ambro25

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Or in that article. It's been dismissed by a self proclaimed pressure group.

As a British citizen living in an eu country, if the government gave me that (albeit initial high level) assurance, I would be happy. But I haven't even had that yet.

You have.

Obviously you just don't know about it.

Glad to be of assistance

Fratton Fred wrote: »

and yet the UK government are getting grief for not having laid out a fully worded plan, detailed down to the nth degree.

I would suggest that you compare and contrast the EU proposal which I linked, with Ms May's proposal of yesterday (released some 2 weeks after the linked EU proposal of 12 June) and, for the sake of objectivity and balance, the UK's (expectedly-) fuller proposal to be released this Monday

Considering Davis refused point blank to meet this 'pressure group' but Barnier didn't and met them; and having regard both to the EU's record of preparedness, released documentation and chronology of same, and to the UK's highly conflicting approach to the exercise (Davis rolling over Monday, Hammond freewheeling all week, May seemingly unaware of the EU's published positions)...I'm not very hopeful about Monday's proposal improving significantly over last night's proclamations.

If it doesn't (-improve significantly, both in detail and in scope-matching), and if that isn't down to incompetence or lack of preparations, then the UK would then look like it is stalling for time. An approach which didn't work too well for Tsipras last time.

BlitzKrieg

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Or in that article. It's been dismissed by a self proclaimed pressure group.

As a British citizen living in an eu country, if the government gave me that (albeit initial high level) assurance, I would be happy. But I haven't even had that yet.

Pressure groups for UK citizens in the EU have also highly criticized May: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/22/theresa-may-makes-fair-and-serious-offer-on-rights-of-eu-citizens-in-uk

The3million, along with a coalition of 13 campaign groups lobbying for the rights of 1.2 million Britons living in Europe, have met the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, and Brexit ministers across Europe and said the EU officials have at least “listened to them” and put in virtually everything they asked for in the EU proposal.

He said they would raise their objections at a scheduled meeting with officials at the Department for Exiting the EU on Friday. The group has a further meeting with ministers on Monday, but Hatton disclosed that the Brexit secretary, David Davis, “refused to meet us, which we also find insulting”.

EDIT:
more in depth article on the response from uk citizens in the eu here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/23/eu-expats-condemn-theresa-may-pathetic-offer-on-brexit-rights?CMP=share_btn_fb

Jim2007

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Or in that article. It's been dismissed by a self proclaimed pressure group.

As a British citizen living in an eu country, if the government gave me that (albeit initial high level) assurance, I would be happy. But I haven't even had that yet.

Have you actually read the EU proposal?

Fratton Fred

ambro25 wrote: »

You have.

Obviously you just don't know about it.

Glad to be of assistance

Thank you. I'm surprised it hasn't been more widely discussed.

ambro25 wrote: »

I would suggest that you compare and contrast the EU proposal which I linked, with Ms May's proposal of yesterday (released some 2 weeks after the linked EU proposal of 12 June) and, for the sake of objectivity and balance, the UK's (expectedly-) fuller proposal to be released this Monday

Considering Davis refused point blank to meet this 'pressure group' but Barnier didn't and met them; and having regard both to the EU's record of preparedness, released documentation and chronology of same, and to the UK's highly conflicting approach to the exercise (Davis rolling over Monday, Hammond freewheeling all week, May seemingly unaware of the EU's published positions)...I'm not very hopeful about Monday's proposal improving significantly over last night's proclamations.

If it doesn't (-improve significantly, both in detail and in scope-matching), and if that isn't down to incompetence or lack of preparations, then the UK would then look like it is stalling for time. An approach which didn't work too well for Tsipras last time.

you'll have to explain. Other than the the eu document being more fleshed out and the ECJ having the jurisdiction, what's the difference?

Fratton Fred

Jim2007 wrote: »

Have you actually read the EU proposal?

Bearing in mind it states this

) Equal treatment amongst EU27 citizens by and in the UK in all matters covered by theWithdrawal Agreement, without prejudice to Common Travel Area arrangements between the UK and Ireland;

And a lot of the comments and discussions on here, I'd say i was not alone in not having read it until today.

joeysoap

What's worrying from a UK point of view is this might well be her trump card. As far as I can see the britexiters don't really have many good cards in their hand. It looks like it's all being made up on a day by day basis. If it's Monday it's this, if it Tuesday its this, if it's Wednesday .......