Brexit Referendum Superthread

Enzokk

Theresa May once again proves her incompetence by having such a hard Brexiter in her cabinet. She once again proves she doesn't care about the national interest and only her own political future. I think the only reason Steve Baker is in her thoughts is that he brings 50 MPs with him that would cause her trouble if she wanted to put forth a vote.

He brought with him the backing of a large swathe of the Tory backbenches – he was chair of Conservatives for Britain, a 50-strong group of Tories who fought Leave, and then went on to run the European Research Group, a pro-Brexit backbench organisation.

The reshuffle which brought him in saw half the ministerial team at Dexeu replaced, with one sacked and another, George Bridges, walking out after it was claimed he became “convinced Brexit couldn’t work”.

Brexit: Minister appointed to negotiate Britain's withdrawal wants European Union 'wholly torn down'

Before the election with their narrow majority, whether this was in relation to Brexit or a internal matter, if MP's felt that she was going against their beliefs with the Brexit negotiations they could easily have derailed her other non-Brexit related policies to flex their muscles and show her who is boss. Now with the election results she is even more vulnerable and she has possibly just made it worse by trying to please everyone because that is what she needs to be PM. She has the hard Brexiteers like Steve Baker and then she has the Chancellor who seems to favour a softer approach to the negotiations. So what will happen is chaos, either the hard Brexiteers will negotiate what they want and it means those that do not agree with it like Philip Hammond will leave his post and throw the country into more chaos. Or a softer approach will be taken and those that don't agree will cause trouble for her when they feel the EU has taken too much in the negotiations.

I still don't know what Theresa May's position is though. Its never been proven that she is either for or against a hard Brexit. She wanted a bigger majority but I don't know whether that was to push through a softer Brexit or be able to go with the nuclear no deal option. Her picks in cabinet and those doing the negotiations show that she is for a total break with the EU. This along with her comments about the ECJ seems to back this up, yet we had many articles proclaiming she was having the election so she is able to push for a softer Brexit.

What I fear is that in this negotiations the worst option is actually going for the middle ground as you will win nothing from either side. They will fight each other about who got a better deal and this will be a detriment to the negotiations. And to think this is even before we take into consideration the DUP. Seems that even without the DUP the Tories are a coalition of chaos within the party.

steddyeddy

Jaggo wrote: »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-european-union-eu-steve-baker-theresa-may-wholly-torn-down-libertarian-alliance-a7820721.html

New brexit minister saying that the whole eu needs to be brought down (from 2010).

So May appoints a guy who wants to take down the EU to a negotiating team and people think she's a remainer?

Professor Moriarty

steddyeddy wrote: »

So May appoints a guy who wants to take down the EU to a negotiating team and people think she's a remainer?

She thought she was a remainer until May 2016.

steddyeddy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

She thought she was a remainer until May 2016.

As Tony Benn would say she's a weathercock, not a sign post. She changes with popular opinion. Puts the politics before principles.

Professor Moriarty

steddyeddy wrote: »

As Tony Benn would say she's a weathercock, not a sign post. She changes with popular opinion. Puts the politics before principles.

That's exactly what she did. In full view of everyone. Still got elected though.

Sam Russell

She is a against the ECJ and the ECHR. She has not changed her mind on that.

Nor has she changed her view on immigration - she is against it.

Other than that, she is a remainer - she is willing to do anything to remain PM.

murphaph

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I am open minded about it, it is something I had never really thought of before.

I'd say the EU is less protectionist today than at any point in its history. I had expected Brexit to make it more protectionist but Macron's election means France will likely be significantly less protectionist than it has been in the past.

Thomas__

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

steddyeddy wrote: »

So May appoints a guy who wants to take down the EU to a negotiating team and people think she's a remainer?

She thought she was a remainer until May 2016.

I rather see it that way that she "pretended" to be a remainer and transfered herself from in fact being a "reluctant" remainer to a die-hard Brexiter when her true colours were coming through. Similar with Corbyn, just that he had to "act" the remainer despite the fact that by his own record, he was always anti-EU by his left-wing standing. With such persons like that couple, the electorate had not much choice between them, cos both were backing Brexit after the Referendum and the many voters didn´t back up and vote for the LibDems, one of the few parties left in the UK with a clear pro-EU stance.  

Now, one can say that the Brits deserved what they got by now and whether it´ll be Corbyn being PM towards the end of this year (which still remains rather questionable) or Mrs May being overthrown by her own Party and replaced by some other die-hard Tory Brexiter, it won´t make much difference cos either way, the Brits are on a fast track towards disaster and nobody will stop them, cos the only ones who could stop them are they themselves.

I had never thought some couple of years back that the Brits would turn that mad and insane as they did within the past two years. It seems to me that this is the final act of the downfall of a once imperial power, grown on a pattern like the ancient Roman Empire, ruled 2/3 of the World for a couple of centuries accordingly and lost it within a couple of decades in the 20th Century. Now they have turned on their own future for the sake of a dream from times long gone by. That is the essence of the whole insanity that presently rules Brit politics.

But hey, I read yesterday in some news that "the cake is off the menue" as the Brits have now started to realise that there is no way of "having our cake and eat it". Another proof for the stupid slogans Mr Johnson never getting tired to reiterate on and on and on. Imagine this Mr Johnson being PM, it´d be like having Nero back in ancient Rome and let him burn the City once again. If one likes to have a guarantee for the worst scenario of the Brits downfall in economical and financial terms, one would with for having this Mr Johnson as PM of the UK. Well, I am no anti-Brit by all means, but I have lost my empathy for the Brits step by step since this stupid BrexitRef and by now, there´s barely anything left of it. So, let´s watch them having their crash-Exit and walk away with no deal. Maybe this will teach them a lesson they´ll never forget and come to their senses afterwards. It might path the way for seing them lose their arrogance and become more humble for considering re-joining the EU after a while, given that they will still be able to meet the standards for membership.

Thomas__

murphaph wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I am open minded about it, it is something I had never really thought of before.

I'd say the EU is less protectionist today than at any point in its history. I had expected Brexit to make it more protectionist but Macron's election means France will likely be significantly less protectionist than it has been in the past.

I´d rather hope that Mr Macron will not turn out to be some sort of a reincarnation of Napoleon Bonaparte. It is all too soon still to have some estimation on him in regards of how he´ll prevail with his plans and where. He´s to face a hot political autumn and the Unions will not make it easy to go forward with his reforms. There will be lot of strikes and protests, which are anticipated to start in September this year.

First Up

Thomas__ wrote: »

But hey, I read yesterday in some news that "the cake is off the menue" as the Brits have now started to realise that there is no way of "having our cake and eat it".

According to my (impeccable) sources, British civil servants are tearing their hair out trying to get the politicians to accept reality and listen to what they are being told. While some public bravura can always be expected from politicians, the Whitehall mandarins are stunned and frustrated at the way ministers and their advisers are waving them away when they try to explain the situation.

Some of the messages are finally starting to get through, because UK captains of industry are (in some cases literally) beating down the doors to explain in words of one syllable what a disruption to their market access and international supply chains is going to cost.

The politicians are also starting to understand that their vision of a Commonwealth (i.e. former Empire) re-invigorated for the UK's trade benefit is not one shared with much enthusiasm by their former colonial subjects.

We have some interesting times ahead.

Thomas__

First Up wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

But hey, I read yesterday in some news that "the cake is off the menue" as the Brits have now started to realise that there is no way of "having our cake and eat it".

According to my (impeccable) sources, British civil servants are tearing their hair out trying to get the politicians to accept reality and listen to what they are being told.  While some public bravura can always be expected from politicians, the Whitehall mandarins are stunned and frustrated at the way ministers and their advisers are waving them away when they try to explain the situation.

Some of the messages are finally starting to get through, because UK captains of industry are (in some cases literally) beating down the doors to explain in words of one syllable what a disruption to their market access and international supply chains is going to cost.

The politicians are also starting to understand that their vision of a  Commonwealth (i.e. former Empire) re-invigorated for the UK's trade benefit is not one shared with much enthusiasm by their former colonial subjects.

We have some interesting times ahead.

All straight to the point. Thanks, just that I would replace "interesting" by "disastrous" when considering the times ahead.

First Up

Thomas__ wrote:

All straight to the point. Thanks, just that I would replace "interesting" by "disastrous" when considering the times ahead.

It will be interesting too. The optimistic scenario is that Hammond will replace May; he will get rid of Davies, Gove and the other nutters and put a pragmatic team in place. Of course that will tear the Tories apart but the hope is that the brutal truth will by then be so obvious that the hard-line Brexiteers will be unable to fight on.

For sure there is no possible outcome that can please both wings of the Tory party. One of them has to lose - completely.

Thomas__

First Up wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote:

All straight to the point. Thanks, just that I would replace "interesting" by "disastrous" when considering the times ahead.

It will be interesting too. The optimistic scenario is that Hammond will replace May; he will get rid of Davies, Gove and the other nutters and put a pragmatic team in place. Of course that will tear the Tories apart but the hope is that the brutal truth will by then be so obvious that the hard-line Brexiteers will be unable to fight on.

For sure there is no possible outcome that can please both wings of the Tory party. One of them has to lose - completely.

Although it reads rather very optimistic, it makes sense and bears some logic. Well, meanwhile "I´ll have my cuppa and drink it" while waiting for things to unfold.

demfad

wes wrote: »

I do wonder if May is trying to destroy the UK, with this kind of carry on. Incompetence can only explain so much.

It's the same players behind Trump and Brexit and you'll get similar societal outcomes:
Resurgent right wing, nationalism, racism, disinformation, hatred of EU, attacks on immigration/immigrants, attacks on the poor and weak, extreme policies, Economy for top 1%, Deliberately divide society into partisan sides then demonising the 'other' side.

Capt'n Midnight

Remember all the fuss about car markets and the UK?

Wouldn't it be a shame if someone completely side stepped the issue

An EU-Japan free trade deal is due to be announced tomorrow, talks started in 2013.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-eu-trade-idUSKBN19P0WX
https://www.ft.com/content/c874d02a-60ba-11e7-91a7-502f7ee26895?mhq5j=e2

Here's the rub, if the UK stays in the custom union then Japanese imports into the EU can be shipped to the UK,without Japan having to offer concessions to the UK.

If the UK leaves the customs union then it may take years to get a deal, assuming there aren't any whisky wars

LeinsterDub

First Up wrote: »

For sure there is no possible outcome that can please both wings of the Tory party. One of them has to lose - completely.

In the case the Tory party pulls itself apart over Brexit , what do you expect Labour too do , can Corbyn maintain even partial control of the whip? Do we have any indication of Hard V Soft Brexit vote count?

Thomas__

demfad wrote: »

wes wrote: »

I do wonder if May is trying to destroy the UK, with this kind of carry on. Incompetence can only explain so much.

It's the same players behind Trump and Brexit and you'll get similar societal outcomes:
Resurgent right wing, nationalism, racism, disinformation, hatred of EU, attacks on immigration/immigrants, attacks on the poor and weak, extreme policies, Economy for top 1%, Deliberately divide society into partisan sides then demonising the 'other' side.

The perfect credentials to either start WWIII or a world revolution once the ordinary people start to say enough is enough and some of them have already started to say that. Plenty examples from history where the small oligarchy has been overthrown by the masses of the people once the people have been pushed too far by the "1%" and such things often ended in bloodshed. The question is just, who´s going to start it, who´s going to win and what will come afterwards, unless that other lunatic in NK is starting a nuclear war soon. He´s pushing the world towards such a conflict and it looks very serious these days, with the other tetchy moron in the WH. It´s just the Chinese who appear to keep cool headed and rational, but I don´t know for how long yet. I know that this passage is not concerning this thread, but in the bigger picture, it is relevant because in the event of a nuc war, that would plunge the whole world into catastrophe, Brexit has a very small meaning then. It means that the far-right and right-wing idiots behind Trump and Brexit who strife to ruin this world would achieve their aim faster than they thought, just that it won´t play out the way they wish for.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Remember all the fuss about car markets and the UK?

Wouldn't it be a shame if someone completely side stepped the issue

An EU-Japan free trade deal is due to be announced tomorrow, talks started in 2013.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-eu-trade-idUSKBN19P0WX
https://www.ft.com/content/c874d02a-60ba-11e7-91a7-502f7ee26895?mhq5j=e2

Here's the rub, if the UK stays in the custom union then Japanese imports into the EU can be shipped to the UK,without Japan having to offer concessions to the UK.

If the UK leaves the customs union then it may take years to get a deal, assuming there aren't any whisky wars

If the UK leaves the EU customs union and goes for WTO rules, then an EU purchaser of Nissan cars has a choice of a UK built one with 10% tariff or a Japanese built one with zero tariff. I know which way most people would go. Sunderland did vote to leave so they will be happy, I assume.

This may bring a bit of reality to the Brexiteers.

An Ciarraioch

LeinsterDub wrote: »

In the case the Tory party pulls itself apart over Brexit , what do you expect Labour too do , can Corbyn maintain even partial control of the whip? Do we have any indication of Hard V Soft Brexit vote count?

50 Labour MPs (out of 265) backed Umunna's bill, and one presumes that number will only rise as the negotiations progress.

123shooter

Sam Russell wrote: »

I assume.

So really you have no evidence or facts of any kind to substantiate your comments?

Truth is non of us have any idea what will happen or what is going on.

123shooter

Thomas__ wrote: »

The perfect credentials to either start WWIII or a world revolution once the ordinary people start to say enough is enough and some of them have already started to say that. Plenty examples from history where the small oligarchy has been overthrown by the masses of the people once the people have been pushed too far by the "1%" and such things often ended in bloodshed. The question is just, who´s going to start it, who´s going to win and what will come afterwards, unless that other lunatic in NK is starting a nuclear war soon. He´s pushing the world towards such a conflict and it looks very serious these days, with the other tetchy moron in the WH. It´s just the Chinese who appear to keep cool headed and rational, but I don´t know for how long yet. I know that this passage is not concerning this thread, but in the bigger picture, it is relevant because in the event of a nuc war, that would plunge the whole world into catastrophe, Brexit has a very small meaning then. It means that the far-right and right-wing idiots behind Trump and Brexit who strife to ruin this world would achieve their aim faster than they thought, just that it won´t play out the way they wish for.

You could possibly be correct but your referral to when people have had enough of them.......are you not forgetting that in both cases of Trump and Brexit they were elected and voted for by the majoriaty of the people?

Sam Russell

123shooter wrote: »

So really you have no evidence or facts of any kind to substantiate your comments?

Truth is non of us have any idea what will happen or what is going on.

Sarcasm is lost on some people.

Sunderland voted to leave the EU despite Nissan being a major employer in the area and being an exporter (and importer) that would be affected negatively by WTO rules on tariffs. Cars built in the UK import a significant percentage of the final value from other EU factories, on a just in time basis. Tariffs and customs delays will render car production nearly impossible.

Sunderland was not alone in voting against local interests - Cornwall and Wales voted for leave. The count for Wales was carried out in a vast building built by EU regional funds. The irony was lost on them.

FrancieBrady

123shooter wrote: »

You could possibly be correct but your referral to when people have had enough of them.......are you not forgetting that in both cases of Trump and Brexit they were elected and voted for by the majoriaty of the people?

You cannot question 'democracy', but you can question how it is administered.
Not interested in Trump but in respect of Brexit and the 'majority', the question should never have been asked the way it was, it never ever got to the point where people knew what Bexit involved or what type of Brexit was wanted, before the referendum.

That was a massive blunder.

123shooter

Sam Russell wrote: »

Sarcasm is lost on some people.

Sunderland voted to leave the EU despite Nissan being a major employer in the area and being an exporter (and importer) that would be affected negatively by WTO rules on tariffs. Cars built in the UK import a significant percentage of the final value from other EU factories, on a just in time basis. Tariffs and customs delays will render car production nearly impossible.

Sunderland was not alone in voting against local interests - Cornwall and Wales voted for leave. The count for Wales was carried out in a vast building built by EU regional funds. The irony was lost on them.

I wasn't being sarcastic i was merely pointing out that your comments are purely guess work on the assumption that when Brexit happens it is closed doors to everthing but in this case from the UK, and if one side loads the dice then so will the otherside.

Sam Russell

123shooter wrote: »

You could possibly be correct but your referral to when people have had enough of them.......are you not forgetting that in both cases of Trump and Brexit they were elected and voted for by the majoriaty of the people?

Trump was not voted by the majority of the people. He was not even voted for a majority of those that voted, HC got 3 million more votes. If 100,000 in particulat states had voted differently, HC would be POTUS. More in the US did not vote than voted for either candidate.

Brexit was voted for by a majority of those that voted, but not of those qualified to vote.

123shooter

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You cannot question 'democracy', but you can question how it is administered.
Not interested in Trump but in respect of Brexit and the 'majority', the question should never have been asked the way it was, it never ever got to the point where people knew what Bexit involved or what type of Brexit was wanted, before the referendum.

That was a massive blunder.

But that is your point of view. The truth is the lead up to brexit and what was at stake and how the question was going to be asked went on for a long long time beforehand..........so everybody had plenty of time to make up their minds either way.

123shooter

Sam Russell wrote: »

Trump was not voted by the majority of the people. He was not even voted for a majority of those that voted, HC got 3 million more votes. If 100,000 in particulat states had voted differently, HC would be POTUS. More in the US did not vote than voted for either candidate.

Brexit was voted for by a majority of those that voted, but not of those qualified to vote.

Sam you can look at it any way you want. There were people like ex-pats for example who were allowed to vote and most likely voted to stay. How about all the scare stories from bozo cameroon and co etc.

FrancieBrady

123shooter wrote: »

But that is your point of view. The truth is the lead up to brexit and what was at stake and how the question was going to be asked went on for a long long time beforehand..........so everybody had plenty of time to make up their minds either way.

No it isn't just my point of view. It was Brexit Or Stay with virtually no examination of what that entailed or no qualification in the ballot of what kind of Brexit people wanted.
Hence the dithering, bungling shennanigans and another election over it.

123shooter

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No it isn't just my point of view. It was Brexit Or Stay with virtually no examination of what that entailed or no qualification in the ballot of what kind of Brexit people wanted.
Hence the dithering, bungling shennanigans and another election over it.

But it was discussed endlessly rolleyes: beforehand on every tv programme related to such. So what are you saying the leave voters were....deaf, blind, illiterate, stupid, unqualified, retarded or ???

123shooter

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Hence the dithering, bungling shennanigans and another election over it.

No that's because the person you refer to is useless and believed her own hype.....Another Maggie Thatcher she thought she was.

Maggie had a pair of boll*x........May used to have blonde hair.........enough said.