Brexit Referendum Superthread

123shooter

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, I think 1916 was a criminal mistake.

I don't know but I do know then that not every Irish person wanted to be away and leave the UK but of course we must never compare situations here must we?:rolleyes:;)

Zubeneschamali

123shooter wrote: »

Do you mean that the UK would take a hit and then come running back to the EU to join or something so its economy doesnt get destroyed?

No, I think the idea is that the UK will come back, flat cap in hand, after its economy has already been destroyed.

123shooter

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am asking you how long is it acceptable for you to take a hit, presuming you think it is abnormal to be taking a hit.

How long are you prepared to say that control is better than a depressed economy.

The answer will be a number.

No the answer is it wont be a depressed economy. The UK isn't a tin pot economy like Ireland who must bow and kiss the feet of all who set up shop paid for by its taxpayer while letting them get away with not paying much.

Zubeneschamali

123shooter wrote: »

of course we must never compare situations here must we?

Compare away. Are you expecting terrorism, war and then a civil war in England, as we had in Ireland after 1916 kicked things off?

I think those are unlikely, the Brits are too well behaved.

123shooter

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Compare away. Are you expecting terrorism, war and then a civil war in England, as we had in Ireland after 1916 kicked things off?

I think those are unlikely, the Brits are too well behaved.

No that will happen anywhere when you have 2 opposing sides who feel they are being ignored or robbed in some way.

It is very similar regards the people aren't listened to and even ignored deliberately and vested interests do not want to give in to the people and will use any means to stop them having their way.

On this point I wonder how many people in Ireland would vote to leave the EU if given the chance especially when they are told they will have to pay more in to EU after Brexit and there is no more or reduced EU farm subsidies or money to build yet another:rolleyes: Irish road.

Zubeneschamali

123shooter wrote: »

No that will happen anywhere when you have 2 opposing sides who feel they are being ignored or robbed in some way.

It is very similar regards the people aren't listened to and even ignored deliberately and vested interests do not want to give in to the people and will use any means to stop them having their way.

Oh dear, you are describing the UK!

But I think terror campaigns, rebellion and civil war are still rather unlikely.

FrancieBrady

123shooter wrote: »

No the answer is it wont be a depressed economy. The UK isn't a tin pot economy like Ireland who must bow and kiss the feet of all who set up shop paid for by its taxpayer while letting them get away with not paying much.

Now now, pot and kettle.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/good-bean-counters-starbucks-has-paid-no-tax-in-uk-since-2009-8212579.html

Back to trying to get this answer.

I said the answer had a number and it's a hypothetical question so no need to protest that it is going to happen. Imagine it does...clear?

How long are you prepared to live in a depressed economy if Brexit goes pearshaped?

123shooter

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Now now, pot and kettle.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/good-bean-counters-starbucks-has-paid-no-tax-in-uk-since-2009-8212579.html

Back to trying to get this answer.

I said the answer had a number and it's a hypothetical question so no need to protest that it is going to happen. Imagine it does...clear?

How long are you prepared to live in a depressed economy if Brexit goes pearshaped?

I honestly cannot answer your fantasy.

And as regards newspaper reports.......if I cannot use any because of their reporting legitimacy, I can't see how anybody else's rag becomes more factual.

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

How long are you prepared to live in a depressed economy if Brexit goes pearshaped?

Sadly, UK folks don't have a choice. The economy will be depressed compared to the Remain baseline forever, even after they rejoin.

FrancieBrady

123shooter wrote: »

I honestly cannot answer your fantasy.

And as regards newspaper reports.......if I cannot use any because of their reporting legitimacy, I can't see how anybody else's rag becomes more factual.

Ok, let's take Brexit out of it.
Say your boss came to you and said that he was going to have to cut your wages but assured you, with no evidence, that things would get better eventually.

How long would you put up with reduced wages?

123shooter

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Sadly, UK folks don't have a choice. The economy will be depressed compared to the Remain baseline forever, even after they rejoin.

I suppose if you told all the youngsters they would have to do conscription because of a proposed;) EU army if they rejoin and being as only old folk want to leave and all young intelligent people (pussy generation) want to remain that it's only fair that the remain youngsters should pay Britains EU contribution because the silly uneducated older folk have paid their fair share............then things may be different:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

123shooter

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ok, let's take Brexit out of it.
Say your boss came to you and said that he was going to have to cut your wages but assured you, with no evidence, that things would get better eventually.

How long would you put up with reduced wages?

Oh I see you mean just like the Irish government did to its own citizens in 2008 when they told them we must pay back all those German bankers?

Then you already know 'your' answer.

FrancieBrady

123shooter wrote: »

Oh I see you mean just like the Irish government did to its own citizens in 2008 when they told them we must pay back all those German bankers?

Then you already know 'your' answer.

Yeh, now you are getting close. But I don't know your answer.

How long will you put up with paying the bill for Brexit? 10 years, 20 yrs, 30yrs?

How long until the average Brexiteer says this was a massive mistake.

I know you think it won't happen but it is possible. So try to imagine yourself into the situation in the same way you are imagining a land of milk and honey.

Zubeneschamali

123shooter wrote: »

I suppose if you told all the youngsters they would have to do conscription because of a proposed;) EU army if they rejoin

People won't fall for those lies twice.

And they are going to be really, really angry when they catch on. This is not a simple Tory/Labour divide where you can rely on Tory voters to support any old mad crap just because the Tories proposed it - many Tories including the PM were never in favour of Brexit, so there is very little to keep them from turning on the Brexiteers when the economy tanks with no upside at all.

123shooter

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yeh, now you are getting close. But I don't know your answer.

How long will you put up with paying the bill for Brexit? 10 years, 20 yrs, 30yrs?

How long until the average Brexiteer says this was a massive mistake.

I know you think it won't happen but it is possible. So try to imagine yourself into the situation in the same way you are imagining a land of milk and honey.

Strange how Irish people talk of bad nasty English people and some try to blame Britain for all Ireland's woes, but Irish people seem to do far worse to their own. 9 years later and your still paying and what did Noonan get caught saying regards water charges ...'sew up your pockets'. How much are his severance and pension payments?

So Mr Noonan how do you feel about screwing the Irish people again today?............ 'morning ..... sew up your pockets ha ha ha' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0wQ73QdY2g

So apart from various numerous new taxes (sorry levies) and introducing property taxes, sewage charges and tried water charges..........where did all this money go and why?

123shooter

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

People won't fall for those lies twice.

And they are going to be really, really angry when they catch on. This is not a simple Tory/Labour divide where you can rely on Tory voters to support any old mad crap just because the Tories proposed it - many Tories including the PM were never in favour of Brexit, so there is very little to keep them from turning on the Brexiteers when the economy tanks with no upside at all.

There isnt an upside if they stay. Maybe it's a toss between the devil you know and best of the worst possible situation.

ancapailldorcha

123shooter banned for 2 days for trolling and repeatedly derailing the thread.

UsedToWait

^ Thank you.
I had to restrain myself from intemperate remarks earlier.
I'm a reader rather than a poster in political threads, but this one was becoming tiresome, and the people engaging with the posting style should know better.

ambro25

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

How long are you prepared to live in a depressed economy if Brexit goes pearshaped?

Sadly, UK folks don't have a choice. The economy will be depressed compared to the Remain baseline forever, even after they rejoin.

I was posting elsewhere recently, in reply to a Leaver arguing the merits of the promised (-outra-EU trading-) land, that FWIW, we've been trading with firms in Brazil (a little), the Middle East (a little), the USA, India and China (tons) <and many other outra-EU places long before FTAs were agreed: Korea, Canada, Japan, OZ, NZ, ...> from here in Sheffield, for over 20 years. Exporting services (handling UK & European IP for Brazilian, UAE, US, Indian, Chinese <etc.> rights owners) and importing services (handling Brazilian, UAE, US, Indian, Chinese <etc.> IP for UK clients through local firms).

Brexit (which has yet to happen of course) started killing all that existing export trade for the past 6 months. Non-EU rights owners simply don't believe that we'll still be able to do the European work, no matter how much factual explaining we do. And let's not talk about UK businesses, which went into wait-and-see mode in Q1 2017, and simply turned the innovating taps off with trap-dooring the IP budgets just like after 2008.

German competitors are hoovering that non-EU export potential from us...

...and we've only just now been asked by the DExEU and the DBEIS, for detailed input & feedback about the consequences of Brexit for our sector! I s**t you not, the conference call with their data-gathering coordinating agency is this Friday' mid-afternoon.

The UK is so f***ed, that I've just got to laugh: I'm out of tears by now.

An Ciarraioch

EU set to agree FTA with Japan tomorrow:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-eu-trade-idUSKBN19P0WX

Zubeneschamali

ambro25 wrote: »

The UK is so f***ed, that I've just got to laugh: I'm out of tears by now.

But you know actual stuff about things which means you're an expert and the Brexiteers aren't listening.

Enzokk

Michel Barnier had some interesting quotes today. It is clear from the EU side that there will be no cherry picking at all and leaving either the customs union or the single market will mean that there will be barriers to trade. The UK will have to be a part of both to receive the benefits that they want.

Addressing an EU business forum in Brussels on Thursday, Barnier said London's "red lines" for a future trade relationship meant Britain was definitely leaving the single market and the customs union, and only membership of both allowed "frictionless" trading arrangements...

..."I have heard some people in the UK argue that one can leave the single market and keep all of its benefits - that is not possible," he said. "I have heard some people in the UK argue that one can leave the single market and build a customs union to achieve 'frictionless trade' – that is not possible."

No such thing as 'frictionless' trade, Barnier warns Britain

So it seems to me that the noises from the EU is that there will be trade barriers between the EU and UK unless the UK either drops Brexit or if they join both the single market and the customs union, which will just be EU lite. I fear that those loud voices on the far right will not let this happen and it will be a hard Brexit.

steddyeddy

You see the thing people are forgetting is that there are two parties in this negotiation. People are suggesting that it's Britain's choice of a hard or soft Brexit. However the real choice lies with the EU negotiating team. Not the British negotiating team that includes people who want to "take down the EU".

People are also suggesting Britain can rejoin the EU. That's true but it will be on the EU's terms.

Verhofstadt stated that if Britain rejoins the EU it will have to give up its perk such as an opt out from the Euro and certain justice and police policies.

The UK also enjoys a permanent opt-out from joining the single currency and can pick and choose on some justice and police policies – special arrangements that irritate some politicians who think they make the EU too complicated.

Macron and Verhofstadt were clear that the door would close once Britain formally leaves the EU at the end of Brexit negotiations in March 2019. From that moment, the door is shut and Britain would have to apply for membership if it wished to rejoin.

Thomas__

Enzokk wrote: »

Michel Barnier had some interesting quotes today. It is clear from the EU side that there will be no cherry picking at all and leaving either the customs union or the single market will mean that there will be barriers to trade. The UK will have to be a part of both to receive the benefits that they want.

Addressing an EU business forum in Brussels on Thursday, Barnier said London's "red lines" for a future trade relationship meant Britain was definitely leaving the single market and the customs union, and only membership of both allowed "frictionless" trading arrangements...

..."I have heard some people in the UK argue that one can leave the single market and keep all of its benefits - that is not possible," he said. "I have heard some people in the UK argue that one can leave the single market and build a customs union to achieve 'frictionless trade' – that is not possible."

No such thing as 'frictionless' trade, Barnier warns Britain

So it seems to me that the noises from the EU is that there will be trade barriers between the EU and UK unless the UK either drops Brexit or if they join both the single market and the customs union, which will just be EU lite. I fear that those loud voices on the far right will not let this happen and it will be a hard Brexit.

As long as they are in charge and pushing Mrs May, I am rather certain of that. Well, if it ends that way, they have only themselves to blame but one can rest assured, that the right-wing tabloid media in the UK will put the blame on the EU, as usual and their stupid followers who swallow everything they print, will certainly believe it.

Thomas__

ambro25 wrote: »

The UK is so f***ed, that I've just got to laugh: I'm out of tears by now.

Aye, sometimes it feel that way too, but we haven´t seen the end of it yet and more important, in what ways and how hard this all will affect the remaining EU member states. Still, I am convinced that the big losers will be the Brits themselves after they have left the EU.

demfad

Enzokk wrote: »

Michel Barnier had some interesting quotes today. It is clear from the EU side that there will be no cherry picking at all and leaving either the customs union or the single market will mean that there will be barriers to trade. The UK will have to be a part of both to receive the benefits that they want.



No such thing as 'frictionless' trade, Barnier warns Britain

So it seems to me that the noises from the EU is that there will be trade barriers between the EU and UK unless the UK either drops Brexit or if they join both the single market and the customs union, which will just be EU lite. I fear that those loud voices on the far right will not let this happen and it will be a hard Brexit.

Those loud voices have been pretty quiet recently.
Barnier stated that there cant be a frictionless border even inside the Customs Union.
He has effectively ruled out the deep and comprehensive FTA that the Tories were banking on to sell their red lines.
IMO this is a significant speech. The UK will have to change their position and that means TM will have to resign. Choice now is between hard Brexit with no deep FTA and SM membership. With the deepening economic issues this choice becomes easier.
This could mean another election before Brexit or a hard/soft referendum.

First Up

demfad wrote:

This could mean another election before Brexit or a hard/soft referendum.

I'd give short odds on another election but how would a "hard/soft referendum" come about?

murphaph

First Up wrote: »

I'd give short odds on another election but how would a "hard/soft referendum" come about?

Only way is for Tory and Labour parties to split and their soft/no Brexit wings to find each other in government at least for a number of years.

Brexit should be a big enough issue to do this but who knows. Our neighbours across the Irish sea seem to have gone fairly mad.

First Up

murphaph wrote:

Only way is for Tory and Labour parties to split and their soft/no Brexit wings to find each other in government at least for a number of years.

It would definitely take that sort of upheaval in the British political landscape but I can't see how it could be accomidated in the Article 50 process. The EU is not going to offer the UK two options.

demfad

First Up wrote: »

It would definitely take that sort of upheaval in the British political landscape but I can't see how it could be accomidated in the Article 50 process. The EU is not going to offer the UK two options.

Barnier wants a soft Brexit, or better still, no Brexit. Any efforts by the UK along these lines will be accommodated. Brexit can be reversed for instance.