Brexit Referendum Superthread

StringerBell

By and large the results that are in have gone as expected, though Leave is doing better then expected overall but it is still very early and still some very important areas to come in.

The Leave side look to have gotten the edge though with turnout and that could win the day.

Mr.Nice Guy

I heard an expert on the radio say that it's up to the UK to decide the time when they give formal notice to the EU when to leave, which sets off a 2 year time limit to negotiate the exit.

So they could give formal notice in 2018 and that would give them until 2020 to prepare for the official exit.

Francie Barrett

There is a clear pattern so far, Remain vote turnout has been worse than expected. The Leave vote has produced some nice surprises. The betting seems to be about 20 minutes ahead of the sentiment on the TV - so I think you're crazy to say it's not relevant.

Kobe248

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Odds have Leave as favourite now.

Wales looks to have voted Brexit, defying expectations.

All the Welsh Im friends with said they were voting leave

They have no facts just that it couldnt make it worse for Wales

RobertKK

Forecast model
56% Leave
44% Remain

4068ac1elhodqr

prinzeugen wrote: »

Should I Sell, Sell, Sell??

What is with the constant updates? Should you not be posting that on the Investments thread??

In simple terms it's the biggest pound drop biggest since 2008 financial crash, so important data, but may be more temporary in this condition, maybe.

Sand

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I heard an expert on the radio say that it's up to the UK to decide the time when they give formal notice to the EU when to leave, which sets off a 2 year time limit to negotiate the exit.

So they could give formal notice in 2018 and that would give them until 2020 to prepare for the official exit.

They wont sit with 2 years of uncertainty crippling investment in their economy, and politically it would be poison to be seen to delay the notice of exit for more than a few days.

StringerBell

S.M.B. wrote: »

The swing in odds over the past half hour is a pretty big deal to be fair. It's not like people have been giving updates on the odds for the past few weeks.

Its what you would expect though if your watching the results, you would expect the swing in odds on betting sites.

The updates one after the other was getting a bit out of hand, then for whatever reason became big block capitals in large font, quoting itself. I wouldn't find that necessary personally, but sure there ya go

BoJack Horseman

Northern Ireland secretary Noel Fielding looks pleased.

prinzeugen

Francie Barrett wrote: »

There is a clear pattern so far, Remain vote turnout has been worse than expected. The Leave vote has produced some nice surprises. The betting seems to be about 20 minutes ahead of the sentiment on the TV - so I think you're crazy to say it's not relevant.

This is a politics forum not a betting or currency investment forum..

Anyway the fact that a part of South Wales, that should have voted remain has just voted leave says it all.

Francie Barrett

Latest forecast: Leave to win
Another forecast just in from the experts at the University of East Anglia - things are definitely shifting in favour of Leave:

Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.03
(33 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.5 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 45.5 to 49.6 percent)

whatever_

Delighted to say I may have called this the wrong way. My view was based on the markets, the betting and on the poll v outcome results from the Scottish Referendum and GE 2014. These showed people stating they would support the radical option, and then voting conservative (by around 5%).

So far looking good for the radical option.

BoJack Horseman

RobertKK wrote: »

Forecast model
56% Leave
44% Remain

From who?

I'm not buying it.... (because my own predictions would be wrong!)

Francie Barrett

prinzeugen wrote: »

This is a politics forum not a betting or currency investment forum..

Anyway the fact that a part of South Wales, that should have voted remain has just voted leave says it all.

I am just using it as an indicator of sentiment, it is about 20 minutes ahead of the TV!

4068ac1elhodqr

West Belfast: Remain 74.1%

Bandana boy

Kobe248 wrote: »

All the Welsh Im friends with said they were voting leave

They have no facts just that it couldnt make it worse for Wales

Erm Wales is a net benefactor from the EU ( gets more out than puts in ) so they will be poorer as a nation and need to increase taxes in some format , and that's all before you factor in any impact on trade

StringerBell

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

From who?

I'm not buying it.... (because my own predictions would be wrong!)

Chap on sky.

ClanofLams

70% for Remain in Oxford outperforms their expectation so may not be over yet.

BoJack Horseman

Remain about to take the lead...

Lambeth delivering 80% for Remain...


Those worshiping at the church of Junker & Tusk need not worry... the cities will carry the day comfortably for remain.

Going to leaba now.... still calling it 56% for 'remain'

StringerBell

Kobe248 wrote: »

All the Welsh Im friends with said they were voting leave

They have no facts just that it couldnt make it worse for Wales

Great example of why the Welsh shouldn't be allowed make decisions! They will be worse off almost certainly

StringerBell

Good win in Glasgow

BoJack Horseman

StringerBell wrote: »

Chap on sky.

He's wrong

Mycroft H

London could carry the remain into a slim majority.

StringerBell

Still a below par turnout in Scotland but enough for the In to pull back ahead of the Out.

Francie Barrett

StringerBell wrote: »

Good win in Glasgow

sh1te turnout though

Mycroft H

Speaking of slim majorities!

mansize

Two Scottish yesses puts Remain marginally ahead!

StringerBell

Big win again for Remain, good margin and pads the lead a little

Its dead Jim

Remain back in the lead.

Francie Barrett

Worrying that Leave are winning in Swansea where Remain expected to win.