Brexit Referendum Superthread

Bob24

Akrasia wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

No-one can answer this type of question now. To be honest no-one even knows if the UK is actually leaving, let alone when and under which conditions.

Stage 1: Denial

http://psychcentral.com/lib/the-5-stages-of-loss-and-grief/

As I said before on this thread my preference was slightly for Brexit and I though euroenthousists were missing part of the picture.

Now I would say the same to you if you think it is a done deal. Whatever people have voted and whatever Cameron is saying (you remember, that reliable guy who was saying until yesterday he wouldn't resign no matter what), the negotiation will be a tough one and public opinion might change its mind in the process.

Wanderer78

Akrasia wrote:

The laws and regulations are required for a successful single market.

The laws and regulations are required for wealth extraction!

Chips Lovell

The row back has already begun. Cameron said he'd trigger Article 50 straight away. This morning he said that decision should be up to the new prime minister.

Francie Barrett

Burty330 wrote: »

Can they do that. Half of Spain has moved into the south of England. More and more come all the time over Spain's chronic unemployment levels. The Spaniards may well be fooked also in that case.

The pre-condition of Spain joining the EU was opening their land border with Gibraltar. Countries within the EU obviously can't have borders. However with the UK out, Spain can do what they like.

Akrasia

Bob24 wrote: »

As I said before on this thread my preference was slightly for Brexit and I though euroenthousists were missing part of the picture.

Now I would say the same to you if you think it is a done deal. Whatever people have voted and whatever Cameron is saying (you remember, that reliable guy who was saying until yesterday he wouldn't resign no matter what), the negotiation will be a tough one and public opinion might change its mind in the process.

Nobody knows for certain what will happen in the next 2 years, but there are a lot of people in the U.K. who would be extremely angry if the will of the people is ignored. It is 99.99% certain that article 50 will be invoked within the next few months. Otherwise we're looking at effectively a coup, and then all bets are off.

AllGunsBlazing

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

The row back has already begun. Cameron said he'd trigger Article 50 straight away. This morning he said that decision should be up to the new prime minister.

Nobody wants to be the one manning the rudder of a ship that maybe about to strike an iceberg.

Akrasia

Francie Barrett wrote: »

The pre-condition of Spain joining the EU was opening their land border with Gibraltar. Countries within the EU obviously can't have borders. However with the UK out, Spain can do what they like.

They'll be obliged to secure their land border. Spain, (and Ireland) have no choice but to secure the E.U. border.

dr.fuzzenstein

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Spain have said they will close the land border with Gibraltar. It basically means all those people who have livelihoods in Spain are fooked.

There will be miles and miles of traffic jams as Spanish customs will disassemble every single UK reg car or car with any UK occupants right down to it's component parts and take their sweet time over it before going on siesta.
They fcuking hate Gibraltar.

Akrasia

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The laws and regulations are required for wealth extraction!

Ok,

The E.U. has regulations requiring full traceability of all herd animals from birth to post mortem, this adds 15% to the costs of production but ensures that the food we eat is safe and animals are treated better.
lets say the U.K. decides to scrap this to save costs. Their food costs 15% less to produce. If they think they can just sell their cheaper but lower quality meat into the E.U. without any import restrictions then they'd have another thing coming.

Bob24

Akrasia wrote: »

Nobody knows for certain what will happen in the next 2 years, but there are a lot of people in the U.K. who would be extremely angry if the will of the people is ignored. It is 99.99% certain that article 50 will be invoked within the next few months. Otherwise we're looking at effectively a coup, and then all bets are off.

I agree with that.

But does invoking article 50 mean automatically leaving the EU?

If in 2 years time the negotiations are not looking good from a British perspective and someone calls for another referendum which gives a different result, I doubt the EU would force the UK out.

Again this is not wishful thinking and I have nothing against Brexit and in any case the Brits are free to do whatever they want, but I think it would be a mistake to think it is a done deal.

Wanderer78

Akrasia wrote:

Ok,

Good point alright but the eu isn't democratically run, hopefully this forces change. I will say our food codex is pretty damn good compared to other states. I do realise there have been advantages of the eu, such as your example, but it needs a major revamp or it will collapse and probably catastrophically, and none of us need that

Redbishop

Akrasia wrote: »

Ok,

The E.U. has regulations requiring full traceability of all herd animals from birth to post mortem, this adds 15% to the costs of production but ensures that the food we eat is safe and animals are treated better.
lets say the U.K. decides to scrap this to save costs. Their food costs 15% less to produce. If they think they can just sell their cheaper but lower quality meat into the E.U. without any import restrictions then they'd have another thing coming.

That might not be the case though!
They are pretty stringent on their beef products over there now, no reason to assume they would change that.
55% of farm income in the UK is subsidised, the biggest threat there is the chance of huge reductions in incomes for these farmers and fishermen too, with major job losses throughout both sectors.
Because of it their agri products may rise sharply in price also, over this.

Tigerandahalf

Another big kick up the arse for the Labour party.
It also shows that the appointment of Corbyn was right (as in a left leaning type of leader) even if Corbyn himself seems out of touch.

The Labour party in Ireland should take note. Appointing a centrist like Howlin not the wisest move.

Huge gap for a workers' type party it seems in Britain.

Akrasia

Bob24 wrote: »

I agree with that.

But does invoking article 50 mean automatically leaving the EU?

If in 2 years time the negotiations are not looking good from a British perspective and someone calls for another referendum which gives a different result, I doubt the EU would force the UK out.

Again this is not wishful thinking and I have nothing against Brexit and in any case the Brits are free to do whatever they want, but I think it would be a mistake to think it is a done deal.

This is a possibility. All referendums relating to the E.U. are described as 'No looking back' before the vote but if the result is against the establishment, there's always the option of re-running the vote.

If the negotiations go spectacularly badly and the British public get scared of actually leaving the E.U., there is a chance that they could re-run the referendum with a different result, but if the E.U. plays hardball with Britain, this could strengthen the anti-european position and we would be subject to a lot of 'i told you so' from both sides of the debate.

The pro europe side will be saying 'I told you we shouldn't have voted to leave' and the anti-europe side will say 'I told you the E.U. were anti democratic and all against us'

What I think will actually happen, is the E.U. will try to be accommodating, and allow Britain to mirror E.U. law in the bilateral agreements allowing more or less free trade and free movement of people within the E.U. and Britain, but Britain will feel pressure from the more right wing elements to refuse this and the negotiations will collapse leading to a chaotic exit from the E.U. without proper agreements in place and the U.K. will suffer badly as their financial sector dries up and the border restrictions harm their economy and cause a lot of needless suffering for British citizens who relied on the free movement of people for their business and personal affairs.

Bob24

Akrasia wrote: »

The pro europe side

Lets call that side pro-EU side, you can like Europe and not the EU at it is.

Akrasia wrote: »

What I think will actually happen, is the E.U. will try to be accommodating, and allow Britain to mirror E.U. law in the bilateral agreements allowing more or less free trade and free movement of people within the E.U. and Britain, but Britain will feel pressure from the more right wing elements to refuse this and the negotiations will collapse leading to a chaotic exit from the E.U. without proper agreements in place and the U.K. will suffer badly as their financial sector dries up and the border restrictions harm their economy and cause a lot of needless suffering for British citizens who relied on the free movement of people for their business and personal affairs.

Possible, but honestly I think making predictions (beyond "they will trigger article 50") is just impossible at this stage.

timmyntc

Akrasia wrote: »

They'll be obliged to secure their land border. Spain, (and Ireland) have no choice but to secure the E.U. border.

Nope, Ireland have no obligation to secure the NI border. It's already been looked into and discussed to death. The CTA will stand, there may be customs checkpoints for goods but the free movement of people between the isles can still stand.

Of course this is assuming Ireland don't have a knee-jerk reaction and join schengen now that our buddies in the UK have opted to leave.

CMOTDibbler

Bob24 wrote: »

Possible, but honestly I think making predictions (beyond "they will trigger article 50") is just impossible at this stage.

The so-called 'advantages' of leaving the EU will prove to be false though. Any negotiated settlement will undoubtedly mean that Britain will still have to pay into the EU in order to maintain as much as possible of the trade links they curretly enjoy. That works both ways of course as the EU does sell into the UK as well.

I'm struggling to see any real benefit to the UK from this. If net immigration from the EU is the problem they say it is, that won't change significantly; even if it was wiped out completely, those already in the UK will have to be accommodated and immigration from outside the EU will not change and may even increase.

CMOTDibbler

timmyntc wrote: »

Nope, Ireland have no obligation to secure the NI border. It's already been looked into and discussed to death. The CTA will stand, there may be customs checkpoints for goods but the free movement of people between the isles can still stand.

I don't understand this. The CTA predated us joining the EEC and so continued right through since we were still in the same bloc. Now however, that's completely different. This is the first time we've had a border between us that is no longer just our border with the UK.

Tigerandahalf

timmyntc wrote: »

Nope, Ireland have no obligation to secure the NI border. It's already been looked into and discussed to death. The CTA will stand, there may be customs checkpoints for goods but the free movement of people between the isles can still stand.

Of course this is assuming Ireland don't have a knee-jerk reaction and join schengen now that our buddies in the UK have opted to leave.

Be interesting to see what happens. Does the Good Friday Agreement mean no border can be put in place so what does that then mean.

How can Britain stop migrants entering Republic, travel to the North and then move onto the UK.

Will Irish people face greater security checks entering mainland UK?

mansize

timmyntc wrote: »

Nope, Ireland have no obligation to secure the NI border. It's already been looked into and discussed to death. The CTA will stand, there may be customs checkpoints for goods but the free movement of people between the isles can still stand.

Of course this is assuming Ireland don't have a knee-jerk reaction and join schengen now that our buddies in the UK have opted to leave.

We have free movement for all EU citizens, how will UK prevent them entering without a border?

Akrasia

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

I don't understand this. The CTA predated us joining the EEC and so continued right through since we were still in the same bloc. Now however, that's completely different. This is the first time we've had a border between us that is no longer just our border with the UK.

Yep. If Switzerland didn't join Schengen, there would be a land border between it and it's neighbours, the same with Norway

If Ireland Is in the E.U. and the U.K isn't, and the U.K. is not a Schengen country, then we'll have to secure the E.U. border with Northern ireland.

BoJack Horseman

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Those worshiping at the church of Junker & Tusk need not worry... the cities will carry the day comfortably for remain.

Going to leaba now.... still calling it 56% for 'remain'

Well I was wrong as can be....

So for breakfast I ate crow

Bob24

mansize wrote: »

We have free movement for all EU citizens, how will UK prevent them entering without a border?

That problem already exists for non-EU citizens.

Today if a non-EU citizens lands in Dublin on an Irish visa, they can drive straight to Belfast (for which they have no visa), and no-one will stop them even though they are not allowed to go there.

Also I don't think the Brexit camp ever said they wanted to require visas for EU citizens? Isn't it more about the restricting economic migrations from within the EU? (i.e. require work permits to work rather than stopping people at the border even if they are there for short term tourism or business)

mansize

Bob24 wrote: »

That problem already exists for non-EU citizens.

Today if a non-EU citizens lands in Dublin on an Irish visa, they can drive straight to Belfast (for which they have no visa), and no-one will stop them even though they are not allowed to go there.

Also I don't think the Brexit camp ever said they wanted to require visas for EU citizens? Isn't it more about the restricting economic migrations from within the EU? (i.e. require work permits to work rather than stopping people at the border even if they are there for short term tourism or business)

We have a common travel area so once one side let them in they could travel throughput the CTA
now there will be an EU border there

Mr. Farage

Rightwing wrote: »

£ and futures rocketing. Easy pickings this one was.

Hard to know if that incident last week turned it.

How's that going for you?

Bob24

mansize wrote: »

We have a common travel area so once one side let them in they could travel throughput the CTA
now there will be an EU border there

As I said: the CTA is already flawed Pre-brexit and lets peopel who have no UK visa enter the UK if they have an Irish visa (which is not valid in the UK).

And as of know nothing has been said implying the UK won't let EU citizens enter its territory freely for tourism or short business trips.

Akrasia

mansize wrote: »

We have a common travel area so once one side let them in they could travel throughput the CTA
now there will be an EU border there

It's not just people that need to be checked, there will be customs implications. If the EU and Britain can't negotiate free trade agreements, then every car going across the border will have to declare customs, otherwise Northern Ireland will become a smugglers paradise

Redbishop

Akrasia wrote: »

It's not just people that need to be checked, there will be customs implications. If the EU and Britain can't negotiate free trade agreements, then every car going across the border will have to declare customs, otherwise Northern Ireland will become a smugglers paradise

What's new?

Tigerandahalf

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Another big kick up the arse for the Labour party.
It also shows that the appointment of Corbyn was right (as in a left leaning type of leader) even if Corbyn himself seems out of touch.

The Labour party in Ireland should take note. Appointing a centrist like Howlin not the wisest move.

Huge gap for a workers' type party it seems in Britain.

Rubbish, Labour have made themselves irrelvant for close to the next decade by electing Corbyn.

Tell me how

In 6 months you could have Boris Johnson Prime Minister of UK and Donald Trump president of US.