Brexit Referendum Superthread

PhoenixParker

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Have you ever done business with Norway or Switzerland. They both have trade agreements with the EU but there is still a lot of paperwork and customs tariffs between us. That will be the same with the UK and by extension NI. We can't escape the consequences of this decision with regard to our border with NI. It's not just the EU that will want a border control, the UK will want one too, to protect their trade and prevent smuggling. It's inescapable.

In addition, both Norway and Switzerland have also adopted many of the aspects of EU policy that the leave campaign declared they wanted within Britain's control. They make financial contributions and they allow freedom of movement. Neither has a say in actually writing the rules. They have less control for less benefit the Britain has had up to this point.

Where they haven't adopted EU policy they have been penalised severely by the EU. See Switzerland, freedom of movement and Horizon 2020 as one example.

mansize

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

When we smash France on Sunday we'll probably have England in the next round. Boot them out now and give us a pass into the semis. Yay brexit.

Hopefully Iceland will have booted them out

Bandana boy

whatever_ wrote: »

I've never met a Euro Enthusiast who didn't have his hand in the pocket of the EU (aka known as the British taxpayer). The Remain side (and the one sided media in Ireland) fought a very poor campaign. I could have put their case better than they could themselves. They completely failed to engage with working class voters, and they continue to dismiss them as uneducated racists. Scotland has serious problems now - 40% of its voters in this Referendum were disenfranchised. Sturgeon will ignore those people at her peril.

Except the areas that voted remain , by a significant amount pay the majority of Tax in the UK
It is the areas of England which get more in public services than there taxes pay voted to leave. They are the people who( if anybody does ) have there hands in the pocket of the taxpayer.
They think the free ride they get for their taxes will continue despite those that pay the bills warning them.

CMOTDibbler

Nody wrote: »

But more jobs would imply that all current manufacturers would stay and continue investing; take the car manufacturers for example who'd face a 10% tax on all imported cars (standard WTO rules which has been implied to go with for EU). Why place the production of the new models in UK instead of simply placing them in any of their other European factories going forward? This is where the real potential loss sits with Brexit; not so much the direct hit but the longer term loss of investments, lowered pensions (as the pension funds are heavily invested in the stock market which are now crashing which will have a knock on effect on pension payments) etc.

From our point of view, we have just lost our biggest competitor for foreign direct investment for the purposes of accessing the European market. The IDA have already ramped up their push to attract more investment here from the US. Wales and Scotland were our biggest competitors for this kind of investment.

dr.fuzzenstein

whatever_ wrote: »

No politician in Britain, in Ireland or in "Europe" is in favour of a hard border or the end to the Common Travel Area. The only people talking about it were "Remain scaremongers" and their views are irrelevant now. There is absolutely no reason to put one in place. There will probably be an agreement on the Island that results in immigration status checks being made at the point of access to services (housing, benefits, hospitals, schools etc). There may be greater passport controls at Holyhead, Gatwick etc but even that remains to be seen.

I believe their views will become very relevant now, it's not like this issue has suddenly disappeared into a cloud of pink smoke.
As for you assertions, can I please have a lend of your crystal ball? I need next weeks lotto numbers. If the UK and "Europe" (quotation used ironically) governments do not know what's going to happen, how do you?
Genuinely curious.

murpho999

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Ireland has long enjoyed the benefits of a relatively weak currency, boosting exports & disincentivising imports.

The Euro's relatively feeble performance against Sterling/Dollar has been of great help.

There is no logical reason why those benefits cannot be enjoyed by the UK.

Remember a few years ago when the Euro was very strong vs Sterling?
Traders were lamenting the money leaving for NI shopping.

Well, it might come back.
Good for them....

But the sky didn't fall in then... it won't now.

You have got how this works completely the wrong way round, weaker sterling makes UK cheaper for us, so more will shop there now.

whatever_

Nody wrote: »

Francie Barrett wrote: »

This is very true, but ultimately is a Luddite reaction. Let's say Britain does close the gates and stop immigration, sure the locals will have more jobs, but it will hurt the long-term prospects of the UK and make it a less attractive place for innovation and investment.

But more jobs would imply that all current manufacturers would stay and continue investing; take the car manufacturers for example who'd face a 10% tax on all imported cars (standard WTO rules which has been implied to go with for EU). Why place the production of the new models in UK instead of simply placing them in any of their other European factories going forward? This is where the real potential loss sits with Brexit; not so much the direct hit but the longer term loss of investments, lowered pensions (as the pension funds are heavily invested in the stock market which are now crashing which will have a knock on effect on pension payments) etc.

As a group of German industrialists made clear yesterday, it is inconceivable that there will not be a trade deal. Cars number among the UK's main imports and their main exports. And in the worst case scenario, I am happy to drive a Morris Oxford if it means that Clarkson has to drive one too. The markets are adjusting, not crashing. And by the way the Italian and Spanish markets have fallen more than the UK markets.

Francie Barrett

whatever_ wrote: »

As a group of German industrialists made clear yesterday, it is inconceivable that there will not be a trade deal. Cars number among the UK's main imports and their main exports. And in the worst case scenario, I am happy to drive a Morris Oxford if it means that Clarkson has to drive one too. The markets are adjusting, not crashing. And by the way the Italian and Spanish markets have fallen more than the UK markets.

The German market is down 8%.

Wurzelbert

whatever_ wrote: »

As a group of German industrialists made clear yesterday, it is inconceivable that there will not be a trade deal. Cars number among the UK's main imports and their main exports. And in the worst case scenario, I am happy to drive a Morris Oxford if it means that Clarkson has to drive one too. The markets are adjusting, not crashing. And by the way the Italian and Spanish markets have fallen more than the UK markets.

no question, life will go on and all will be okay, and more or less free trade will continue…

CMOTDibbler

whatever_ wrote: »

As a group of German industrialists made clear yesterday, it is inconceivable that there will not be a trade deal. Cars number among the UK's main imports and their main exports. And in the worst case scenario, I am happy to drive a Morris Oxford if it means that Clarkson has to drive one too. The markets are adjusting, not crashing. And by the way the Italian and Spanish markets have fallen more than the UK markets.

I don't think anyone doubts there will be a trade deal. The voters in the UK have been fooled into thinking they will no longer have to pay money into the EU. A trade deal will inevitably cost them money, the same as it does Norway and Switzerland.

A weak sterling will benefit the UK in the short term. It's hard to know what the long term ramifications will be.

BoJack Horseman

Wurzelbert wrote: »

no question, life will go on and all will be okay, and more or less free trade will continue…

Indeed... there is too much money to be made for it to be any other way.

But we'll see for sure in 2 years.

BoJack Horseman

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

A trade deal will inevitably cost them money, the same as it does Norway and Switzerland

There are different kinds of trade deal.....
Swiss/Norway option is not the only one in existence

Walter H Price

So granted Cameron has done the very proper British thing and taken responsibility for the Remain campaign's failure to secure a win , but was it ever really in his hands ?

I would argue that those truly responsible for Britain now confirmed exit of the EU and the massive rise in euro skepticism across Europe are a Trio of Angela Merkel , Francois Holland and Jean Claude Junker. Cameron's remain camp put forward some real (and some very exaggerated) economic concerns but in the face of the EU's hopeless response to the migrant crisis , with Merkel and Holland championing open borders and imposed quotas of mainly Muslim immigrants.even last night as ballot box's were being opened Eurocrats were discussing the possibility of granting these mostly illegal immigrant's a form of passport that would allow them free travel within the EU member states.The underhandedness of the TTIP negotiations and special deals being done with the oppressive Islamist Turkish government also boosted support for brexit.

And what of the economy , well the pound is taking an expected kicking today but it will recover , it would be hard to argue that the EU has achieved any stabilization of the euro zone since 2008 , Italy, Greece and Portugal all remain iin dire political straits while imposed austerity measures to cover the gambling debts of bankers and bondholders have lead to political discontent across Europe most notably in Spain , Portugal , Italy , Greece and here.

In the face of such undemocrtic ineptitdue at the uppermost echlons of the EU is there anything more Cameorn , Corbyn or any other British politican could have done to stem the negative feeling of the majority against Europe. And for the EU with Britain now gone i believe the question is not what next but who next .. The Dutch , The Danes , The Swedes , The Italians , The French , The Irish who will be the ext meber state to say enough is enough and walk away

Francie Barrett

Nody wrote: »

But more jobs would imply that all current manufacturers would stay and continue investing; take the car manufacturers for example who'd face a 10% tax on all imported cars (standard WTO rules which has been implied to go with for EU). Why place the production of the new models in UK instead of simply placing them in any of their other European factories going forward? This is where the real potential loss sits with Brexit; not so much the direct hit but the longer term loss of investments, lowered pensions (as the pension funds are heavily invested in the stock market which are now crashing which will have a knock on effect on pension payments) etc.

True, but this referendum was never about any kind of long-term vision.

CMOTDibbler

https://twitter.com/LauraTopham/status/746260604936200192

Oh dear

timmy_mallet

Bandana boy wrote: »

whatever_ wrote: »

I've never met a Euro Enthusiast who didn't have his hand in the pocket of the EU (aka known as the British taxpayer). The Remain side (and the one sided media in Ireland) fought a very poor campaign. I could have put their case better than they could themselves. They completely failed to engage with working class voters, and they continue to dismiss them as uneducated racists. Scotland has serious problems now - 40% of its voters in this Referendum were disenfranchised. Sturgeon will ignore those people at her peril.

Except the areas that voted remain , by a significant amount pay the majority of Tax in the UK
It is the areas of England which get more in public services than there taxes pay voted to leave. They are the people who( if anybody does ) have there hands in the pocket of the taxpayer.
They think the free ride they get for their taxes will continue despite those that pay the bills warning them.

Correct. They have been coerced into voting against their own best interests by the drunk guy in the corner of the pub (Farage or Boris, take yer pick).

Sturgeon winding up for another Independence referendum here I think.

glued

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

There are different kinds of trade deal.....
Swiss/Norway option is not the only one in existence

Yes, but it's likely to be the EEA or operate under the WTO which the IMF say will be a disaster for the UK economy.

Also, there seems to be an appetite from some to punish the UK for this decision. It'll be an interesting few years to say the least!

BoJack Horseman

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Sturgeon winding up for another Independence referendum here I think.

If Westminster grants one.

CMOTDibbler

Walter H Price wrote: »

In the face of such undemocrtic ineptitdue at the uppermost echlons of the EU is there anything more Cameorn , Corbyn or any other British politican could have done to stem the negative feeling of the majority against Europe. And for the EU with Britain now gone i believe the question is not what next but who next .. The Dutch , The Danes , The Swedes , The Italians , The French , The Irish who will be the ext meber state to say enough is enough and walk away

I would suspect that anyone with half a brain will sit tight and wait and see what happens in the UK before jumping into the pool behind them.

No need to take any risks while there's a ready made guinea pig there to show the pitfalls or advantages.

intellectual dosser

Bandana boy wrote: »

They think the free ride they get for their taxes will continue despite those that pay the bills warning them.

I see Nigel Farage today walking back the Leave campaigns argument that the 350m a week that the UK pay to the EU will now be put into the NHS (instead will be spread around)....do they not realise its unlikely they'll have this 350m to spend at all?

mansize

Sturgeon throws down the gauntlet with the threat of a 2nd independence referendum

mansize

mansize wrote: »

Sturgeon throws down the gauntlet with the threat of a 2nd independence referendum

More than a threat.

mansize

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

If Westminster grants one.

They are entitled to one as there has been material change.

mansize

Independence Referendum "Highly Likely " Sturgeon

Polo_Mint

mansize wrote: »

Sturgeon throws down the gauntlet with the threat of a 2nd independence referendum

Shes making it clear that they will be having a 2nd independence referendum

They will need to do that quick smart so they will be Independent EU members before the day of the exit

CMOTDibbler

mansize wrote: »

They are entitled to one as there has been material change.

Kind of ironic when one of the main reasons they voted to stay in the UK was the threat that they'd be out of the EU if they devolved completely and would have to renegotiate entry. :rolleyes:

mansize

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Kind of ironic when one of the main reasons they voted to stay in the UK was the threat that they'd be out of the EU if they devolved completely and would have to renegotiate entry. :rolleyes:

That was a threat made by Westminster

But wasn't one of the European threats to the Scots when they had their referendum that they would in no way be entitled to automatic entry into the EU? Assuming that to be true, they would face a long road into re-entry.

mansize

Sergio Georgini wrote: »

But wasn't one of the European threats to the Scots when they had their referendum that they would in no way be entitled to automatic entry into the EU? Assuming that to be true, they would face a long road into re-entry.

No. London said that. The EU said nothing to placate London