Brexit Referendum Superthread

K-9

Hi, I merged this into another thread about Brexit we had going, quietened down recently but hopefully some of the posters here can help you out.

Seems to be more information and opinions coming out in the Irish Press, a lot of it seems to be in business news though.

ancapailldorcha

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

Feel free to merge if this has been dealt with previously.

I would be grateful if anybody could suggest some literature or opinion pieces on the above.

The official campaigns are Britain Stronger in Europe and Leave.eu. In addition, the Financial Times has published a free ebook here about the referendum. The Economist favours staying in and published a special report last October on the subject. Daniel Hannan, a Conservative MEP for the southeast has also published a book though he strongly favours leaving.

djpbarry

For those who may have missed it, Michael Gove today announced the Leave campaign's vision for trade relations between the UK and the rest of Europe in the event of Brexit.

Apparently, the whole of Europe, not just the EU, will sign a free-trade agreement with the UK in exchange for .... absolutely nothing. The UK will, somehow, strong-arm the entire continent into trading completely on British terms with absolutely no concessions necessary.

Needless to say, his vision has been roundly dismissed as nonsense.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36074853

Elemonator

djpbarry wrote: »

For those who may have missed it, Michael Gove today announced the Leave campaign's vision for trade relations between the UK and the rest of Europe in the event of Brexit.

Apparently, the whole of Europe, not just the EU, will sign a free-trade agreement with the UK in exchange for .... absolutely nothing. The UK will, somehow, strong-arm the entire continent into trading completely on British terms with absolutely no concessions necessary.

Needless to say, his vision has been roundly dismissed as nonsense.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36074853

I think I read something similar will take years of negotiation but I'm open to correction. Thing is if they do leave, the EU politicians will want to punish them.

Sam Russell

The UK are going into a very important decision where the Leave side have hope on their side - hope it all goes as well as it possibly can. The Remain crowd have at least some knowledge of how things will go.

If Scotland, NI, and Wales all vote to remain, while England vote to go - that will signal the break up of the disUnighted Kingdom.

Interesting times.

K-9

Elemonator wrote: »

I think I read something similar will take years of negotiation but I'm open to correction. Thing is if they do leave, the EU politicians will want to punish them.

I don't know about punish, but there isn't much incentive to make it easy for them. The other problem is there is no real precedent for this barring Greenland!

It's battle of the negativities anyway.

If either side would care to present anything positive whatsoever about their choice, then perhaps 'normal' people would listen, but its just doom v doom at the moment.

djpbarry

Elemonator wrote: »

I think I read something similar will take years of negotiation but I'm open to correction.

Well, no, what Gove is proposing is completely unrealistic. No amount of negotiation is going to allow the UK to walk away with absolutely everything it wants, while making absolutely no concessions whatsoever to her trading partners. There are larger economies than the UK (the US, for example) that have not managed to negotiate such an arrangement, so why the hell would the UK be successful?

Elemonator wrote: »

Thing is if they do leave, the EU politicians will want to punish them.

I don't see what punishment has to do with it. Any deal negotiated post-Brexit necessarily has to be worse than the deal that currently exists. If you want to call that punishment, go ahead, but most people would call it realism.

djpbarry

Deleted User wrote: »

It's battle of the negativities anyway.

If either side would care to present anything positive whatsoever about their choice....

Aren't the Leave campaign insisting that everything will be fine?

Jim2007

Elemonator wrote: »

I think I read something similar will take years of negotiation but I'm open to correction. Thing is if they do leave, the EU politicians will want to punish them.

No it will take two years unless all EU states agree to extend the period. The rules are stacked against the UK. If the UK decides to leave they have a two year period to try and get an agreement with the EU. If they fail to get an agreement within the two year period and the EU states refuse to extend the period then the UK fall through the crack and becomes a third country sitting behind all third countries that have agreements.

Any agreement reached would have to be agreed by all states and assuming it would require a treaty change then the people of at least France, Denmark and Ireland would also have to vote on it.

djpbarry

djpbarry wrote: »

Aren't the Leave campaign insisting that everything will be fine?

Most of the literature is "EU problems" related and not "If we were 'free of the saddle' we could do x,y,z differently".

It's all so negative.

Remain - "Leaving would be a DISASTER"
Leave - "Remaining is an absolutely nightmare"

They're the narratives.

K-9

Ah, Britain can get a EU referendum instead of us for a change. 1916, 800 years, payback!

twinytwo

Id love for the Brits to leave.

Sure the future may be "uncertain" but id gladly take a hit to my wages if it meant getting back control of my country.

You look at the EU where most countries do not have referendums and the likes of the Lisbon treaty was signed in by European politicians being led by the nose.

Then you had countries forced to take ownership of private debt.

To be in a situation where you effectively cannot self govern because you breach some stupid EU law...

Whatever the EEC/EU was originally intended to be the current manifestation is not it... its a massive bureaucratic mess.

If no one is willing to say enough is enough why not just suspend every countries government and let Merkel control everything from Berlin... whats the difference?

djpbarry

twinytwo wrote: »

Sure the future may be "uncertain" but id gladly take a hit to my wages if it meant getting back control of my country.

How much of a hit? What percentage of your future salary would you be prepared to sacrifice in order to make your country more insular?

twinytwo wrote: »

You look at the EU where most countries do not have referendums and the likes of the Lisbon treaty was signed in by European politicians being led by the nose.

There are very good reasons why most European countries do not use referenda for the purposes of governing.

twinytwo wrote: »

Then you had countries forced to take ownership of private debt.

Forced? I don't think so. Encouraged in exchange for financial assistance because they ran themselves into the ground? Maybe.

twinytwo wrote: »

To be in a situation where you effectively cannot self govern because you breach some stupid EU law...

Yeah, pesky EU laws granting rights to workers, freedoms to women, protections to environments, etc. etc.

twinytwo wrote: »

Whatever the EEC/EU was originally intended to be the current manifestation is not it... its a massive bureaucratic mess.

The bureaucratic overhead associated with the EU is drastically over-stated. Particularly by the Brits, rather ironically, where unnecessary bureaucracy is a national past-time.

twinytwo wrote: »

If no one is willing to say enough is enough why not just suspend every countries government and let Merkel control everything from Berlin... whats the difference?

I suggest you read up on the EU decision-making process and how well small countries like Ireland have done out of it.

BoJack Horseman

twinytwo wrote: »

Then you had countries forced to take ownership of private debt.

Like the UK did.... and many many non-EU countries did?

And the 'forced' thing.... it doesn't really stack up.

BlitzKrieg

I'd really hope that someone might have tried to at least prior to this referendum push teaching how the EU actually works cause honestly the Lisbon referendums were pretty god awful affair and thats with a populace who have some understanding of how the EU works. The British public are much much worse then the Irish in terms of understanding how the EU works and the government between announcing the referendum and now made no effort in educating which is f*cking criminal and they deserve to loose because they are banking on the same ignorance and fear mongering that the leave campaign is banking on. Which really makes it a matter of choosing between two absolute ****.

Also I find the new talking point of british politicians trying to avoid talking about anything to be the most insufferable *It is better to remain in the EU but the system is flawed*

Fuuuuuuuuuuuu


ITS NOT THE SYSTEM!! ITS THE PEOPLE WE PUT INTO THE SYSTEM!

and i do mean we put them in there!

When everybody wags on about the undemocratic EU they fail to realise 3 of the 4 councils are made of representatives directly elected by european citizens. Only 1 isnt and that one is made up by people nominated by each individual government...again elected representatives. How each country chooses their commissioner nominee is up to the state itself.

bugs the sh*t out of me when I listen to british politicians talk about the EU, its like listening to american politicians talk about planned parenthood.

djpbarry

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

When everybody wags on about the undemocratic EU they fail to realise 3 of the 4 councils are made of representatives directly elected by european citizens. Only 1 isnt and that one is made up by people nominated by each individual government...again elected representatives. How each country chooses their commissioner nominee is up to the state itself.

Makes me cringe every time I hear a British politician refer to the "undemocratic" EU considering the UK is governed by a party that received less than 37% of the popular vote in the most recent election.

Sam Russell

djpbarry wrote: »

Makes me cringe every time I hear a British politician refer to the "undemocratic" EU considering the UK is governed by a party that received less than 37% of the popular vote in the most recent election.

Margaret Thatcher never received more than 42% of the popular vote in the three elections she 'won'.

Democracy is implemented differently in every country - whether they think they are democratic or not. The French use a First past the Post, with a re-run of the top two candidates if the top candidate fails to win over 50%. Many European countries use a party list system with various implementations.

The difficulty with democracy is everyone gets a vote - even if they are brainless idiots.

[Unless of course it is the Senate where the brainless do not get a vote - but idiots can still vote].

djpbarry

Sam Russell wrote: »

Democracy is implemented differently in every country - whether they think they are democratic or not.

Precisely the point - it's not British, ergo it's not democratic.

Sam Russell

It is interesting to think that the Brexit vote is for:

1: Staying - they keep what they have (with a few minor tweaks) or

2: They leave - but have no idea what they will get. Will they get a Norway model, or will they get a Switzerland model - in both they will be bound by EU laws and decisions and contributions but have no say. Or will they be like Iceland, or Algeria, or Canada (no not Canada because they have a USA trade agreement and Barrack Obama said they will be back of the queue for that).

Oh dear, better rub it out and start again. Can we postpone the referendum until we know what we are getting if we leave?

djpbarry

Sam Russell wrote: »

Oh dear, better rub it out and start again. Can we postpone the referendum until we know what we are getting if we leave?

You mean you haven't heard? Apparently, the UK is going to have far more influence outside the EU and far more clout at the trade negotiating table:

Currently, the EU signs trade deals with the rest of the world that it has negotiated on our behalf (often taking years to do so). Leaving the EU would give Britain the legal right to negotiate its own agreements, as currently, the European Commission speaks for all EU member states at World Trade Organisation meetings - including the UK. Leaving the EU would give us our own seat - and therefore more influence - at the W.T.O.

http://leave.eu/en/the-facts/on-global-trade

Sam Russell

djpbarry wrote: »

You mean you haven't heard? Apparently, the UK is going to have far more influence outside the EU and far more clout at the trade negotiating table:

http://leave.eu/en/the-facts/on-global-trade

You mean just like Iceland and Algeria! Oh dear, please can we delay the referendum until we understand what we are voting for if we leave?

BlitzKrieg

djpbarry wrote: »

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

When everybody wags on about the undemocratic EU they fail to realise 3 of the 4 councils are made of representatives directly elected by european citizens. Only 1 isnt and that one is made up by people nominated by each individual government...again elected representatives. How each country chooses their commissioner nominee is up to the state itself.

Makes me cringe every time I hear a British politician refer to the "undemocratic" EU considering the UK is governed by a party that received less than 37% of the popular vote in the most recent election.

Thats the horrible sh*tshow at the centre of all this. The EU works if the states that make up its members work. When you are essentially undemocratic at your base using an election system that has been openly known to be flawed for decades and refuse to modernise it this has a domino effect into the EU because it means the representatives in there are then predominantly placed by the same people who got elected by that sham system.

Its why when a government like Greece cant get its basic functions to actually work it has a negative effect up the line.

The EU is careful enough in its design as to not force any country to govern itself better, but because of this problems that start nationally go up and become problems internationally and vice versa, when something is agreed on an EU level and comes down to a national level we get the sheer bollocks like Irish Waters being created. *fixing* the EU or getting rid of the EU does not make problems that exist on a national level disappear.

So it bugs the hell out of me when blame gets shifted to the EU because the tories and labour and all the other national politics wont even consider reform on a national level.

God this just makes me angry over the whole alternative vote referendum again.

Sam Russell

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

God this just makes me angry over the whole alternative vote referendum again.

That referendum was rigged from the start. They picked a daft system and asked - 'Do you want this new daft system that you cannot understand or the one you have now where you just put an 'X' against your choice'. They should have asked 'Do you want a proportional system that guarantees fairness?'

Of course it was easy to put up an Aunt Sally to be knocked down.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

That referendum was rigged from the start. They picked a daft system and asked - 'Do you want this new daft system that you cannot understand or the one you have now where you just put an 'X' against your choice'. They should have asked 'Do you want a proportional system that guarantees fairness?'

Of course it was easy to put up an Aunt Sally to be knocked down.

Before my time. Didn't the main parties all come out against AV?

BoJack Horseman

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Before my time. Didn't the main parties all come out against AV?

Some did, some didnt.

You can see the breakdown here

The Lib Dems and the Pirate Party were for it,
While the Tories & the communists were curiously allied against.
Meanwhile the Monster Raving Loony Party & similarly disposed Labour Party took no position.

BlitzKrieg

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Before my time. Didn't the main parties all come out against AV?

It was the sword the lib dems died on. They traded their positions on bloody everything, Universty fees, the NHS, EVERYTHING for a shot at a new voting system and then Cameron crushed it by every mean, the day it was held on, how the campaign was fought and generally burying it and the lib dems with it.



Also the big news story in all the british papers tonight (well all the rubbish ones) is a supposed secret document thats been leaked showing that germany, italy france etc all moving to create a federal europe...

Course the papers are lapping it up and not a single one is stopping and thinking.

Hold on

THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE

I mean physically impossible.

If Germany joins a federal europe...it'll be a federal state within a federal state


For such bollocks to happen Germany would actually have to completely redo its entire political structure. I mean gut it completely to make it work inside another federal state. Even a superstate system.


Also for the EU to do anything of the sort would require a signing of another treaty, one that would easily be grounds for referendums in France, Holland and ireland without doubt, most likely in almost every state.

And that wont pass any of them. Hell even using the word Constitution saw an eu treaty fail in France.

djpbarry

The OECD have weighed in now, suggesting a reduction of up to 5.1% in GDP by 2020 and up to 7.7% by 2030 in the UK if it leaves the EU.

http://www.oecd.org/economy/the-economic-consequences-of-brexit-a-taxing-decision.htm

BoJack Horseman

So, an average 0.5% per year.... in line with the treasury's own estimates.

Equivalent to 3 months of economic growth being lost per annum based on current GDP growth

The Randy Riverbeast

Haven't spent a lot of time looking into this, mostly just what I come across in my general browsing but what exactly do they intend to do when (or if) they leave? From what I can tell the plan is to leave the EU and then sign up to get all the benefits of the EU as possible while staying out of anything that could lead to a negative for them. What these things are are a bit vague and the EU would also have to let them.