Brexit Referendum Superthread

gandalf

And this time I believe the independence referendum will pass in Scotland. It's like the UK has hit speed flush on its future!

CMOTDibbler

mansize wrote: »

That was a threat made by Westminster

I know. That's the irony.

mansize

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

I know. That's the irony.

Cos they knew Scotland was so pro EU

eric hoone

WHERE'S ENDA? 6hrs since this news, people and businesses need reassurance

mansize

mansize wrote: »

No. London said that. The EU said nothing to placate London

It wasn't just London saying that. Or do we really have such short memories?

Bob24

eric hoone wrote: »

WHERE'S ENDA? 6hrs since this news, people and businesses need reassurance

Working on the new party line.

Yesterday: Brexit would be a catastrophe for Ireland.

Today: Brexit is a huge opportunity for Ireland.

CMOTDibbler

gandalf wrote: »

And this time I believe the independence referendum will pass in Scotland. It's like the UK has hit speed flush on its future!

I'd say there's very little doubt about that.

Scotland faces the prospect of being taken out of the EU against our will and I find that democratically unacceptable...for many people the supposed guarantee of remaining in the EU was a driver for their vote to remain in the UK.

The prospect of a second referendum must be on the table, and it is on the table

Jelle1880

gandalf wrote: »

And this time I believe the independence referendum will pass in Scotland. It's like the UK has hit speed flush on its future!

I agree.

In 2014 I was really happy they decided to stay in the EU, but they have been royally shafted by this and if they wish to stay in the EU then leaving the UK is likely their only option.

I hope they push through with it.

BoJack Horseman

Sergio Georgini wrote: »

It wasn't just London saying that. Or do we really have such short memories?

Indeed... Eurocrats were keen to indicate that there would be no fast-pass to membership.
Tbf, said with 1 eye on Catalonia

mansize

mansize wrote: »

No. London said that. The EU said nothing to placate London

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-independent-scotland-stay-eu/17767

Then the European Commission president, Jose Manuel Barroso, said it would be “difficult, if not impossible” for an independent Scotland to join the European Union.

On the other side we have the European Commission, the Spanish government and various other eminent law professors, who think a newly independent Scottish state will have to go through a long, complex application process and could be blocked from joining if countries like Spain exercise their veto.

mansize

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Indeed... Eurocrats were keen to indicate that there would be no fast-pass to membership.
Tbf, said with 1 eye on Catalonia

To placate London. London is gone now.

CMOTDibbler

Bob24 wrote: »

Working on the new party line.

Yesterday: Brexit would be a catastrophe for Ireland.

Today: Brexit is a huge opportunity for Ireland.

I wonder what the result would have been if he'd taken the opposite line?

"Brexit will be great for Ireland".

Consternation all round

timmy_mallet

mansize wrote: »

Sergio Georgini wrote: »

But wasn't one of the European threats to the Scots when they had their referendum that they would in no way be entitled to automatic entry into the EU? Assuming that to be true, they would face a long road into re-entry.

No. London said that. The EU said nothing to placate London

Yes. They are/were already a member of the EU, so why would they have to re-enter?

mansize

Either way Scotland is leaving and if wants to stay or get back in- they have to go alone.

Tigerandahalf

I doubt if a Scottish referendum would succeed.
Will Scots vote to leave the UK before Europe. I doubt it. The SNP could hit a snag very quickly.

Why would the Scots leave the UK and enter a basket case like the EU?

whatever_

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

whatever_ wrote: »

As a group of German industrialists made clear yesterday, it is inconceivable that there will not be a trade deal. Cars number among the UK's main imports and their main exports. And in the worst case scenario, I am happy to drive a Morris Oxford if it means that Clarkson has to drive one too. The markets are adjusting, not crashing. And by the way the Italian and Spanish markets have fallen more than the UK markets.

I don't think anyone doubts there will be a trade deal. The voters in the UK have been fooled into thinking they will no longer have to pay money into the EU. A trade deal will inevitably cost them money, the same as it does Norway and Switzerland.

A weak sterling will benefit the UK in the short term. It's hard to know what the long term ramifications will be.

Yes, although if you paged back through this thread (don't bother, it's really not worth it) you would see a number of people arguing nonsense like it's 500million people v 60 million - so Britain will get shafted etc.

Agree re. sterling - the point is when you are standing at the edge of a increasingly more integrated (and failing) eurozone economy, there are huge risks with sterling, exports etc if you stay. Safer out.

gandalf

Also there is no way the UK can wait three months to elect a successor to Cameron as PM. I fully expect that timetable to accelerate as the consequences pan out!

BoJack Horseman

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Yes. They are/were already a member of the EU, so why would they have to re-enter?

The UK is a member.
The Independent nation of Scotland is not....because it doesn't exist.

So, the membership process would still have to be gone through..... The EU were clear about that.

Which would take a while because the process of Independence would take years anyway.

Neither event would be quick

CMOTDibbler

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Yes. They are/were already a member of the EU, so why would they have to re-enter?

I have no idea how that would work. It's uncharted territory really. I suspect that it would require a readmission process. Scotland does not exist as a separate nation yet.

But if they want to remain/get back in, they've no choice but to go the independence route.

Tell me how

gandalf wrote:

Also there is no way the UK can wait three months to elect a successor to Cameron as PM. I fully expect that timetable to accelerate as the consequences pan out!

Who do you think it will be?

micosoft

Bob24 wrote: »

Working on the new party line.

Yesterday: Brexit would be a catastrophe for Ireland.

Today: Brexit is a huge opportunity for Ireland.

And to be fair what would you have him do. Brexit is done. So now we sell sell sell to the Businesses that are looking to relocate from Britain. Sounds the smartest approach to me...

mansize

Boris' dad canvassing for his son now on BBC

Patser

Hang on

The UK has just voted to leave a Union it has been a member of for over 30 years, has lost its PM and split the governing party, it's main opposition party is equally fighting amongst itself and the only successful party, UKIP, has a grand total of 1 MP. Into this political turmoil you have the largest collapse of their Country's stock market, currency falls and the serious threat of Scotland (and NI) looking for referenda on independence.

This all on top of the need over the next 2 years to disentangle itself, rewrite and renegotiate itself from that 30 year Union and on a global level too.

And people see it as a good thing!

whatever_

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

I doubt if a Scottish referendum would succeed.
Will Scots vote to leave the UK before Europe. I doubt it. The SNP could hit a snag very quickly.

Why would the Scots leave the UK and enter a basket case like the EU?

This is a big problem for Scotland. This is too soon for a second referendum. Despite every politician and newspaper up there saying they should stay, almost 40% voted to leave. Sturgeon would probably lose again on the Euro, and even if she didn't, countries like Spain would probably block a Scottish entry.

mansize

gandalf wrote: »

Also there is no way the UK can wait three months to elect a successor to Cameron as PM. I fully expect that timetable to accelerate as the consequences pan out!

It will take 3 months to elect one

CMOTDibbler

micosoft wrote: »

And to be fair what would you have him do. Brexit is done. So now we sell sell sell to the Businesses that are looking to relocate from Britain. Sounds the smartest approach to me...

Absolutely. Our biggest competitor has taken itself out of the game.

gladrags

Walter H Price wrote: »

So granted Cameron has done the very proper British thing and taken responsibility for the Remain campaign's failure to secure a win , but was it ever really in his hands ?

I would argue that those truly responsible for Britain now confirmed exit of the EU and the massive rise in euro skepticism across Europe are a Trio of Angela Merkel , Francois Holland and Jean Claude Junker. Cameron's remain camp put forward some real (and some very exaggerated) economic concerns but in the face of the EU's hopeless response to the migrant crisis , with Merkel and Holland championing open borders and imposed quotas of mainly Muslim immigrants.even last night as ballot box's were being opened Eurocrats were discussing the possibility of granting these mostly illegal immigrant's a form of passport that would allow them free travel within the EU member states.The underhandedness of the TTIP negotiations and special deals being done with the oppressive Islamist Turkish government also boosted support for brexit.

And what of the economy , well the pound is taking an expected kicking today but it will recover , it would be hard to argue that the EU has achieved any stabilization of the euro zone since 2008 , Italy, Greece and Portugal all remain iin dire political straits while imposed austerity measures to cover the gambling debts of bankers and bondholders have lead to political discontent across Europe most notably in Spain , Portugal , Italy , Greece and here.

In the face of such undemocrtic ineptitdue at the uppermost echlons of the EU is there anything more Cameorn , Corbyn or any other British politican could have done to stem the negative feeling of the majority against Europe. And for the EU with Britain now gone i believe the question is not what next but who next .. The Dutch , The Danes , The Swedes , The Italians , The French , The Irish who will be the ext meber state to say enough is enough and walk away

I honestly don't see any catastrophe on the horizon based on the UK exit.

Buissness is buissness,and trade opportunities will be found as quickly as they are lost.

One of the main aspects of this result,is the clear divisions within the UK,and the equal possibility of a UK break up.

whatever_

whatever_ wrote: »

This is a big problem for Scotland. This is too soon for a second referendum. Despite every politician and newspaper up there saying they should stay, almost 40% voted to leave. Sturgeon would probably lose again on the Euro, and even if she didn't, countries like Spain would probably block a Scottish entry.

Spain would have blocked it before. With UK out of EU their reason for blocking it is pretty much gone.

murpho999

Polo_Mint wrote: »

Shes making it clear that they will be having a 2nd independence referendum

They will need to do that quick smart so they will be Independent EU members before the day of the exit

Wouldn't matter as they would have to join EU as a new country. They would not be in the UK which is still in the EU for the next few years.

mansize

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

I doubt if a Scottish referendum would succeed.
Will Scots vote to leave the UK before Europe. I doubt it. The SNP could hit a snag very quickly.

Why would the Scots leave the UK and enter a basket case like the EU?

The EU is not a basket case, Scots were keen to stay last night