Brexit Referendum Superthread

mansize

murpho999 wrote: »

Wouldn't matter as they would have to join EU as a new country. They would not be in the UK which is still in the EU for the next few years.

That's not definite

BoJack Horseman

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Spain would have blocked it before. With UK out of EU their reason for blocking it is pretty much gone.

Catalonia.

Endorse the Scots & Spain splits.....

They have every reason to veto that hypothetical.

4068ac1elhodqr

After Scotland leaves the UK, a border poll in NI might be an idea:

timmy_mallet

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Yes. They are/were already a member of the EU, so why would they have to re-enter?

The UK is a member.
The Independent nation of Scotland is not....because it doesn't exist.

So, the membership process would still have to be gone through..... The EU were clear about that.

Which would take a while because the process of Independence would take years anyway.

Neither event would be quick

The UK isn't a member

I think we can all agree that we're in for one hell of a ride.

dr.fuzzenstein

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

I don't think anyone doubts there will be a trade deal. The voters in the UK have been fooled into thinking they will no longer have to pay money into the EU. A trade deal will inevitably cost them money, the same as it does Norway and Switzerland.

A weak sterling will benefit the UK in the short term. It's hard to know what the long term ramifications will be.

This was a true "get underpants" kinda deal, step 2 = ?, step 3 = profit.
The Brits have been sold a very dangerous deal and one that won't have all the bells and whistles they have been promised by the underpants gnomes.

Tigerandahalf

The Scots could be very lucky that the last referendum failed. Where would they be now with this Brexit. An independent country in the EU and their neighbour out of the EU.

Don't think the Scots would fancy taking on the Euro and having a land border. SNP could be heading for trouble. Maybe Labour isn't dead in Scotland yet.

murpho999

mansize wrote: »

That's not definite

That's what was side at the time of the Scottish referendum.

They woudl be a new country, not UK so would have to join. I would say the EU would make their path as easy as possible considering the threat the union is now under.

Tigerandahalf

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

The Scots could be very lucky that the last referendum failed. Where would they be now with this Brexit. An independent country in the EU and their neighbour out of the EU.

Don't think the Scots would fancy taking on the Euro and having a land border. SNP could be heading for trouble. Maybe Labour isn't dead in Scotland yet.

You mean just like, shock horror, the Republic of Ireland?

whatever_

Patser wrote: »

Hang on

The UK has just voted to leave a Union it has been a member of for over 30 years, has lost its PM and split the governing party, it's main opposition party is equally fighting amongst itself and the only successful party, UKIP, has a grand total of 1 MP. Into this political turmoil you have the largest collapse of their Country's stock market, currency falls and the serious threat of Scotland (and NI) looking for referenda on independence.

This all on top of the need over the next 2 years to disentangle itself, rewrite and renegotiate itself from that 30 year Union and on a global level too.

And people see it as a good thing!

The German, Spanish and Italian stock markets had fallen more (last time I checked). A certain amount of turmoil is inevitable in the short term. Ireland's independence was not without turmoil and economic cost. There is good reason for British and Irish people to be very positive about this. Closer cooperation between Ireland and NI is, I think, an inevitable consequence and a good thing.

whatever_

Patser wrote: »

Hang on

The UK has just voted to leave a Union it has been a member of for over 30 years, has lost its PM and split the governing party, it's main opposition party is equally fighting amongst itself and the only successful party, UKIP, has a grand total of 1 MP. Into this political turmoil you have the largest collapse of their Country's stock market, currency falls and the serious threat of Scotland (and NI) looking for referenda on independence.

This all on top of the need over the next 2 years to disentangle itself, rewrite and renegotiate itself from that 30 year Union and on a global level too.

And people see it as a good thing!

The German, Spanish and Italian stock markets had fallen more (last time I checked). A certain amount of turmoil is inevitable in the short term. Ireland's independence was not without turmoil and economic cost. There is good reason for British and Irish people to be very positive about this. Closer cooperation between Ireland and NI is, I think, an inevitable consequence and a good thing.

LiamoSail

Patser wrote: »

Hang on

The UK has just voted to leave a Union it has been a member of for over 30 years, has lost its PM and split the governing party, it's main opposition party is equally fighting amongst itself and the only successful party, UKIP, has a grand total of 1 MP. Into this political turmoil you have the largest collapse of their Country's stock market, currency falls and the serious threat of Scotland (and NI) looking for referenda on independence.

This all on top of the need over the next 2 years to disentangle itself, rewrite and renegotiate itself from that 30 year Union and on a global level too.

And people see it as a good thing!

True, but there'll be less Muslems which obviously makes it worthwhile in the eyes of the Englsih

Francie Barrett

CMOTDibbler

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Catalonia.

Endorse the Scots & Spain splits.....

They have every reason to veto that hypothetical.

It's a different scenario though. It's not even a subtle difference. The value of having Scotland in the EU far outweighs any disadvantage to countries like Spain. I can't see Spain vetoing part of (what used to be ) the UK effectively stayiing in the EU.

Nicola Sturgeon has said prospect of Scotland being removed from the European Union is "democratically unacceptable" and raised the prospect of a new independence referendum. "The prospect of a second referendum must be on the table, and it is on the table," the First Minister said. "We will begin to prepare the legislation required for a new referendum to take place if, and when, Parliament requires." She tells EU citizens in Scotland that it is "their home" and their presence is valued.

Bob24

micosoft wrote: »

And to be fair what would you have him do. Brexit is done. So now we sell sell sell to the Businesses that are looking to relocate from Britain. Sounds the smartest approach to me...

Oh for sure I agree.

It just goes to say that whatever politicians and institutions have said is highly subjective and can radically change from one day to the next.

A Dub in Glasgo

murpho999 wrote: »

That's what was side at the time of the Scottish referendum.

They woudl be a new country, not UK so would have to join. I would say the EU would make their path as easy as possible considering the threat the union is now under.

This was said by 1 person in the EC. They said that to get the official stance, the UK Government would have to ask and they did not. The Scottish Government did ask and was told that it needed to be the UK Government

Scofflaw

EU issuing press releases, unsurprisingly:

President Schulz, President Tusk and Prime Minister Rutte met this morning in Brussels upon the invitation of European Commission President Juncker. They discussed the outcome of the United Kingdom referendum and made the following joint statement:

"In a free and democratic process, the British people have expressed their wish to leave the European Union. We regret this decision but respect it.

This is an unprecedented situation but we are united in our response. We will stand strong and uphold the EU's core values of promoting peace and the well-being of its peoples. The Union of 27 Member States will continue. The Union is the framework of our common political future. We are bound together by history, geography and common interests and will develop our cooperation on this basis. Together we will address our common challenges to generate growth, increase prosperity and ensure a safe and secure environment for our citizens. The institutions will play their full role in this endeavour.

We now expect the United Kingdom government to give effect to this decision of the British people as soon as possible, however painful that process may be. Any delay would unnecessarily prolong uncertainty. We have rules to deal with this in an orderly way. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union sets out the procedure to be followed if a Member State decides to leave the European Union. We stand ready to launch negotiations swiftly with the United Kingdom regarding the terms and conditions of its withdrawal from the European Union. Until this process of negotiations is over, the United Kingdom remains a member of the European Union, with all the rights and obligations that derive from this. According to the Treaties which the United Kingdom has ratified, EU law continues to apply to the full to and in the United Kingdom until it is no longer a Member.

As agreed, the “New Settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union”, reached at the European Council on 18-19 February 2016, will now not take effect and ceases to exist. There will be no renegotiation.

As regards the United Kingdom, we hope to have it as a close partner of the European Union in the future. We expect the United Kingdom to formulate its proposals in this respect. Any agreement, which will be concluded with the United Kingdom as a third country, will have to reflect the interests of both sides and be balanced in terms of rights and obligations.”

And Phil Hogan:

EU Agriculture and Rural Development Commissioner Phil Hogan said: "I regret but respect the decision of the British people to leave the European Union. I echo the call of President Juncker for a swift and decisive negotiation, pursuant to Article 50, in the interests of both sides. It's essential that we set in train the essential steps to bring clarity and stability to the 27 member bloc as quickly as possible."

cordially,
Scofflaw

Chips Lovell

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

The row back has already begun. Cameron said he'd trigger Article 50 straight away. This morning he said that decision should be up to the new prime minister.

Now Boris is backing off a bit. "No need for haste", "...no need to invoke Article 50."

BoJack Horseman

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Catalonia.

Endorse the Scots & Spain splits.....

They have every reason to veto that hypothetical.

No they don't. They "warned" that Scotland couldn't secede from the UK and walk into the EU because of the whole Catalunya thing. That's not the issue any more.

gandalf

Tell me how wrote: »

Who do you think it will be?

I have no idea. I don't believe it will be Boris, probably Gove.

Bob24

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Now Boris is backing off a bit. "No need for haste", "...no need to invoke Article 50."

I might be mistaken, but wasn't it his line from the start: don't invoke article 50 immediately and have informal talks first.

LeinsterDub

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Catalonia.

Endorse the Scots & Spain splits.....

They have every reason to veto that hypothetical.

Wouldn't Scotland be considered a successor state of the UK?

mansize

EU putting pressure on UK already

RobertKK

Britain no longer the 5th largest economy in the world.

Tigerandahalf

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You mean just like, shock horror, the Republic of Ireland?

Yes but if the Scots leave they will be forced to take on the euro or issue their own currency.

Don't think the Scots will fancy that.

Of course they could sell themselves as an Ireland that could now draw in FDI as an English speaking EU member but I doubt the Scottish people will go for that.

Given a choice the Scots will choose the UK and sterling over the EU and the euro I would think.

So where does the SNP go then?

mzungu

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/nigel-farage-350-million-pledge-to-fund-the-nhs-was-a-mistake/

Farage begins the backtracking!

Patser

whatever_ wrote: »

The German, Spanish and Italian stock markets had fallen more (last time I checked). A certain amount of turmoil is inevitable in the short term. Ireland's independence was not without turmoil and economic cost. There is good reason for British and Irish people to be very positive about this. Closer cooperation between Ireland and NI is, I think, an inevitable consequence and a good thing.

Yes there's a European wide stock market shake up, but all those other countries (Maybe not Spain) have Govts and deals in place. They might be a bit more nervous but for the most part it's status quo and still in a Union.

Britain is the one Politically, Financially and even Existentially in turmoil.

NI and Ireland may need closer cooperation but we're still a fringe issue in terms of Britain and the EU's future - a detail to be looked at but as a sideline to the main discussions. Ireland won't be allowed do private but far reaching deals, at the expense of other EU countries.

Enzokk

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Now Boris is backing off a bit. "No need for haste", "...no need to invoke Article 50."

He has already mentioned a leave vote could lead to better terms for renegotiation with the EU, they would then call another referendum and aim for a remain vote. Playing Russian roulette with the UK economy and the EU as well.

Polo_Mint

If you see The_Kew_Tour, Could you pass on the Menu

And ask him would he like a side order with his meal.

gandalf

Motion of no confidence in Corbyn now!

whatever_

Deleted User wrote: »

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Catalonia.

Endorse the Scots & Spain splits.....

They have every reason to veto that hypothetical.

No they don't. They "warned" that Scotland couldn't secede from the UK and walk into the EU because of the whole Catalunya thing. That's not the issue any more.

Yes it is - Catalonia is still the issue - and this problem is replicated thoughout Europe - Basque, Flemish, Bavaria etc .. virtually every EU member faces this same problem to a greater or lesser degree. Plus the referendum result in Scotland was far from decisive.