Brexit Referendum Superthread

CMOTDibbler · 24-06-2016 12:10pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Of course they could sell themselves as an Ireland that could now draw in FDI as an English speaking EU member but I doubt the Scottish people will go for that.

Given a choice the Scots will choose the UK and sterling over the EU and the euro I would think.

So where does the SNP go then?

Scotland has benefitted hugely from being in the EU. Structural funds, subsudies and FDI to name but a few. At the time of the last referendum, it was continued membership of the EU that was credited with swinging the vote. That has now been taken away from them without their consent. I would bet on them leaving the UK.

24-06-2016 12:11pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Yes but if the Scots leave they will be forced to take on the euro or issue their own currency.

You mean, shock horror, like the Republic of Ireland?

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Don't think the Scots will fancy that.
Of course they could sell themselves as an Ireland that could now draw in FDI as an English speaking EU member but I doubt the Scottish people will go for that.

Why not?

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Given a choice the Scots will choose the UK and sterling over the EU and the euro I would think.

Why?

They only just about chose to remain within the UK as part of the EU.
They have just voted to remain in the EU to the same extent that Ireland voted to enable Same Sex Marriage.

What allows you to disentangle those two facts to the extent that you just have?

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

So where does the SNP go then?

Well I assume they continue as usual, just like almost all other parties that push an agenda, hoping that it gets picked up and eventually becomes the norm.

A Dub in Glasgo · 24-06-2016 12:12pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Yes but if the Scots leave they will be forced to take on the euro or issue their own currency.

Don't think the Scots will fancy that.

Of course they could sell themselves as an Ireland that could now draw in FDI as an English speaking EU member but I doubt the Scottish people will go for that.

Given a choice the Scots will choose the UK and sterling over the EU and the euro I would think.

So where does the SNP go then?

The SNP will go for another independence referendum

Francie Barrett · 24-06-2016 12:12pm

gandalf wrote: »

Motion of no confidence in Corbyn now!

He has to go, I am amazed he hasn't walked already.

Harry Palmr · 24-06-2016 12:13pm

Laura Kuenssberg ✔
‎@bbclaurak

Challenge to Corbyn- Margaret Hodge and Ann Coffey submit no confidence motion in Corbyn - could be voted on on Tuesday night
12:00 PM - 24 Jun 2016

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132 .
132 likes

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gandalf · 24-06-2016 12:15pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

He has to go, I am amazed he hasn't walked already.

I'm not he is the weakest leader of Labour since Michael Foot.

Tigerandahalf · 24-06-2016 12:16pm

Well if the Scots were to go that route you would have to have a solid border between England and Scotland. Are Scots going to want that? I doubt it.

Otherwise you could have Turks arriving into Scotland and hopping on down to England.

gandalf · 24-06-2016 12:17pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Well if the Scots were to go that route you would have to have a solid border between England and Scotland. Are Scots going to want that? I doubt it.

Otherwise you could have Turks arriving into Scotland and hopping on down to England.

I don't see why they wouldn't. And they might erect the solid border to stop the Brits getting into Europe

Enzokk · 24-06-2016 12:18pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Well if the Scots were to go that route you would have to have a solid border between England and Scotland. Are Scots going to want that? I doubt it.

Otherwise you could have Turks arriving into Scotland and hopping on down to England.

Which would be the case for Ireland the the UK. So either a border between the North and South, or end the CTA.

24-06-2016 12:19pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Well if the Scots were to go that route you would have to have a solid border between England and Scotland. Are Scots going to want that? I doubt it.

Otherwise you could have Turks arriving into Scotland and hopping on down to England.

You mean shock horror like the Republic of Ireland?

timmyntc · 24-06-2016 12:19pm

gandalf wrote: »

I'm not he is the weakest leader of Labour since Michael Foot.

Corbyn has only appeared so weak as of late since he is vehemently anti-EU, he always has been. But new Labour's core voting base is pro-EU, so he had to either outright lie about his beliefs or just say nothing.
In the end, he said nothing. In a post-EU Britain Corbyn could do exceptionally well, without EU regulations to hamper his nationalisation ideas.

whatever_ · 24-06-2016 12:19pm

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Of course they could sell themselves as an Ireland that could now draw in FDI as an English speaking EU member but I doubt the Scottish people will go for that.

Given a choice the Scots will choose the UK and sterling over the EU and the euro I would think.

So where does the SNP go then?

Scotland has benefitted hugely from being in the EU. Structural funds, subsudies and FDI to name but a few. At the time of the last referendum, it was continued membership of the EU that was credited with swinging the vote. That has now been taken away from them without their consent. I would bet on them leaving the UK.

Put your money on it then. Scotland has benefitted hugely from being in the UK. Nothing has been taken away from them without their consent. Almost 40% of them voted to leave, despite the one sided campaign that was run up there. Your hypothesis is predicated on the assumption that the EU would accept them as an independent member, and that is a very big "if".

Tigerandahalf · 24-06-2016 12:21pm

Enzokk wrote: »

Which would be the case for Ireland the the UK. So either a border between the North and South, or end the CTA.

Much easier to put checks on people entering through ferries and flights so not as big an issue. How do you stop cars going over the Scottish English border.

Patser · 24-06-2016 12:21pm

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Well if the Scots were to go that route you would have to have a solid border between England and Scotland. Are Scots going to want that? I doubt it.

Otherwise you could have Turks arriving into Scotland and hopping on down to England.

Not yet, Turks aren't allowed free travel in Europe yet. But for arguments sake, you could have Poles do that, just like we will have to deal with that precise issue here. Any European can fly into Dublin and hop on a bus to Belfast. Will there be a hard border? No-one wants it but how else can post -Brexit UK claim a secure immigration policy.

If we don't get one, why would Scotland need one. In the case of a Scottish independence Referendum we'll be the example given.

JinkyJackson · 24-06-2016 12:22pm

Akrasia wrote:

They'll be obliged to secure their land border. Spain, (and Ireland) have no choice but to secure the E.U. border.

Rubbish.. Switzerland not in the EU yet have open boarders

K-9 · 24-06-2016 12:23pm

Jaysus, that was quick. The end justifies the means for Labour I suppose.

24-06-2016 12:24pm

JinkyJackson wrote: »

Rubbish.. Switzerland not in the EU yet have open boarders

Seems unlikely that the UK will elect to join the EEA given that they just voted to leave the EU on the back of a huge anti-Free-Borders campaign.

CMOTDibbler · 24-06-2016 12:24pm

whatever_ wrote: »

Put your money on it then. Scotland has benefitted hugely from being in the UK. Nothing has been taken away from them without their consent. Almost 40% of them voted to leave, despite the one sided campaign that was run up there. Your hypothesis is predicated on the assumption that the EU would accept them as an independent member, and that is a very big "if".

Thanks, I will. Did I actually need your permission :pac:

Almost 40% is a significant number? What about the almost 50% that voted for the UK to stay in the EU?

Whather the EU accept them or not is down to discussions the Scottish have with the EU. They will most certainly have those discussions. We will see.

gandalf · 24-06-2016 12:26pm

I actually hope the powers that be in the EU insist that the UK start the process to leave as quickly as possible and not let it be manipulated because of a Tory leader election.

BoJack Horseman · 24-06-2016 12:29pm

K-9 wrote: »

Jaysus, that was quick. The end justifies the means for Labour I suppose.

Jezza will ride it out.

There have been more plots against him than he has hammer&sickle vests!

If no confidence was voted by the PLP, the membership would overwhelmingly back him anyway.

CMOTDibbler · 24-06-2016 12:30pm

gandalf wrote: »

I actually hope the powers that be in the EU insist that the UK start the process to leave as quickly as possible and not let it be manipulated because of a Tory leader election.

I think they already have. There are procedures in place and there's no reason to delay.

Harry Palmr · 24-06-2016 12:32pm

Labour is going to split. Eventually it'll become a niche party as the Tories could if they are not careful, with the formation of a new loose coalition of centrists possible.

A Dub in Glasgo · 24-06-2016 12:35pm

There will be an upsurge in Irish passport applications from the UK

Patser · 24-06-2016 12:36pm

gandalf wrote: »

I actually hope the powers that be in the EU insist that the UK start the process to leave as quickly as possible and not let it be manipulated because of a Tory leader election.

It's pretty much what all European leaders are saying, we want this sorted quickly as the uncertainty is leading to instability across Europe.

Meanwhile Boris is out saying there's no rush, we need time to think.

I don't think they expected to win, and in Boris' case for Cameron to step down and pass the mess to him so quickly. They clearly don't have a plan or programme in place yet now that the EU us holding them to their word.

Christ, 1 year on and this is a mirror image of Greece's Oxi referendum last year!! A referendum held as a bargaining chip in negotiations for a better deal with no plan in place should they win.

RobertKK · 24-06-2016 12:37pm

https://twitter.com/louisa_compton/status/746279848180592640

With leave voters in Manchester for BBCNews -most told us they woke up thinking "what have I done?" & didn't actually expect the uk to leave

How could people be do stupid?
Did they think it was something as insignificant as the X factor?

mansize · 24-06-2016 12:40pm

JinkyJackson wrote: »

Rubbish.. Switzerland not in the EU yet have open boarders

Switzerland are in Schengen

CMOTDibbler · 24-06-2016 12:41pm

RobertKK wrote: »

https://twitter.com/louisa_compton/status/746279848180592640

With leave voters in Manchester for BBCNews -most told us they woke up thinking "what have I done?" & didn't actually expect the uk to leave

How could people be do stupid?
Did they think it was something as insignificant as the X factor?

I'm starting to think that their political 'leaders' didn't expect to win either.

BoJack Horseman · 24-06-2016 12:42pm

RobertKK wrote: »

How could people be do stupid?
Did they think it was something as insignificant as the X factor?

This is the ground work before the calls for a re-run start.

By Sunday we'll start to see that.

timmyntc · 24-06-2016 12:43pm

RobertKK wrote: »

https://twitter.com/louisa_compton/status/746279848180592640

With leave voters in Manchester for BBCNews -most told us they woke up thinking "what have I done?" & didn't actually expect the uk to leave

How could people be do stupid?
Did they think it was something as insignificant as the X factor?

I'd like to know how many people they asked, and where from..
They could have easily been part of the 10% undecided voters who chose on the day

Harry Palmr · 24-06-2016 12:44pm

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

I'm starting to think that their political 'leaders' didn't expect to win either.

If you mean Gove, Boris, Farrage etc then yes I think you're correct.

Brexit Referendum Superthread

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