Brexit Referendum Superthread

karma_

partyguinness wrote: »

This is not Europe May 1945 or the Balkans 1995. There are far bigger problems in the world- let's keep it in context

Of course not, but this has huge implications. Will Scotland leave? Will Ireland harvest a huge reward within the EU? Will the North look enviously across a border from within an economically strangled state? Could the actions of what amounts to British Nationalism ultimately be responsible for the literal destruction of the UK as a political entity in the most spectacular irony of all time?

I really can't believe the Leave vote won out, I'm in a state of disbelief almost, hell, even the news casters look shellshocked. The 'Leave' Leaders look like they are rabbits caught in the headlights ffs!

There are some interesting times ahead, this is going to be a car crash I just can't look away from.

CMOTDibbler

whatever_ wrote: »

The real failure here is the failure of Labour to engage with its traditional voters on the issue of immigration. This is a failure that goes back decades. It is an issue that Labour has found easier to ignore. If Labour had addressed this core issue then it is unlikely that this referendum would have been won.

Labour are in an invidious position though. Immigrants are as much part of their constituency as anyone else.

The one failure I did see in relation to the immigration issue was the inability to highlight the fact that net immigration from the EU was negligible.

CMOTDibbler

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

The question still has to be posed though, as to why individual voters do not equip themselves with freely available facts instead of listening and reacting to propaganda.

How do you know they didn't? We've all heard anecdotes about voter ignorance.

I doubt your average selfie-taking Remain voter understands the principle of subsidiarity. I doubt the old lady in sheltered housing understands the irrelevance of the European Convention. We've all heard the anecdotes about lack of voter knowledge.

But ultimately, you've got to accept that people voted whatever way for legitimate reasons. And despite popular liberal opinion, migration is a legitimate concern. Resource allocation is a legitimate concern. The democratic nature of the EU (or otherwise) is a legitimate concern.

Remain had plenty of legitimate concerns too, many of which I share.

But sooner or later you've got to stop implying that those who disagree with you are idiots. At least for the sake of trying to win a referendum.

CMOTDibbler

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

How do you know they didn't? We've all heard anecdotes about voter ignorance.

Because so much of the propaganda was false. On bioth sides, yet it was parrotted by newspapers and other media as fact.

It's hard to ignore tweets from the likes of Elizabeth Hurley that Brexit would mean being able to use incandescent lightbulbs again. :rolleyes:

CMOTDibbler

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

It's hard to ignore tweets from the likes of Elizabeth Hurley that Brexit would mean being able to use incandescent lightbulbs again. :rolleyes:

Oh come now.

How many people do you think voted in accordance with Liz Hurley's lightbulb tweet vs concerns about the allocation of public resources?

People are not as stupid as it may be comforting to believe.

whatever_

karma_ wrote: »

partyguinness wrote: »

This is not Europe May 1945 or the Balkans 1995. There are far bigger problems in the world- let's keep it in context

Of course not, but this has huge implications. Will Scotland leave? Will Ireland harvest a huge reward within the EU? Will the North look enviously across a border from within an economically strangled state? Could the actions of what amounts to British Nationalism ultimately be responsible for the literal destruction of the UK as a political entity in the most spectacular irony of all time?

I really can't believe the Leave vote won out, I'm in a state of disbelief almost, hell, even the news casters look shellshocked. The 'Leave' Leaders look like they are rabbits caught in the headlights ffs!

There are some interesting times ahead, this is going to be a car crash I just can't look away from.

Though not directly relevant to your points, I was talking about 1989 and 2009, not 1945 or 1995.
And they are completely in context - the reunification of Germany, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Financial Crisis were far bigger issues than this. Again, this "car crash" rhetoric is ridiculous. We're going to extract ourselves from a political superstructure. That is all.

mansize

K-9 wrote: »

Indeed it does, I'm not sure how Brexit will bring back well paid employment though. It isn't as if the Tories or indeed Labour are going to be anti globalist, freed trade, low paid jobs etc.

I don't think Brexit is the answer, just that it highlights a disenfranchised group

mansize

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Because so much of the propaganda was false. On bioth sides, yet it was parrotted by newspapers and other media as fact.

It's hard to ignore tweets from the likes of Elizabeth Hurley that Brexit would mean being able to use incandescent lightbulbs again. :rolleyes:

Or powerful vacuums

CMOTDibbler

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Oh come now.

How many people do you think voted in accordance with Liz Hurley's lightbulb tweet vs concerns about the allocation of public resources?

People are not as stupid as it may be comforting to believe.

Of course not. But people voted for the most tenuous reasons.

The lack of economic development outside the south-east is the major issue in the UK. But to allow that failure to be laid at the feet of EU immigration without any meaningful discussion and the wholesale swallowing of that lie is just unbelievable.

Ally Dick

My opinion is that the British deserve everything that's coming to them. They want special treatment all the time. They should have been asked to leave the EU after they wouldn't participate in the euro currency, or sign up to Schengen. Now they can go off with the huffy jingoistic opinions, and try and survive out there without the EU's back up. Sterling won't be worth toilet paper in a few months

Jimmy Garlic

CMOTDibbler

whatever_ wrote: »

Though not directly relevant to your points, I was talking about 1989 and 2009, not 1945 or 1995.
And they are completely in context - the reunification of Germany, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Financial Crisis were far bigger issues than this. Again, this "car crash" rhetoric is ridiculous. We're going to extract ourselves from a political superstructure. That is all.

It's a bit more than a political superstructure. Comparisons are being made with Norway and Switzerland without accepting the economic realities of those two countries and the fact that they can afford to be semi-detached from Europe.

Perhaps the UK can too, but since 44% of UK exports go to the EU, there's a dependency that can't be ignored.

Liamalone

Crystal balls, crystal balls everywhere!

whatever_

Ally Dick wrote: »

My opinion is that the British deserve everything that's coming to them. They want special treatment all the time. They should have been asked to leave the EU after they wouldn't participate in the euro currency, or sign up to Schengen. Now they can go off with the huffy jingoistic opinions, and try and survive out there without the EU's back up. Sterling won't be worth toilet paper in a few months

Lol ! Are you trying to say "Sterling WILL be worth toilet paper in a couple of months" ? Who's got huffy, jingoistic opinions !

CMOTDibbler

Liamalone wrote: »

Crystal balls, crystal balls everywhere!

New ground being broken and we're not standing on it. Hurlers on the ditch abound.

timmyntc

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

It's a bit more than a political superstructure. Comparisons are being made with Norway and Switzerland without accepting the economic realities of those two countries and the fact that they can afford to be semi-detached from Europe.

Perhaps the UK can too, but since 44% of UK exports go to the EU, there's a dependency that can't be ignored.

Well if Sterling does tank, then I'm sure they can find plenty of buyers for their exports, it won't be hard.

testaccount123

Ally Dick wrote: »

My opinion is that the British deserve everything that's coming to them. They want special treatment all the time. They should have been asked to leave the EU after they wouldn't participate in the euro currency, or sign up to Schengen. Now they can go off with the huffy jingoistic opinions, and try and survive out there without the EU's back up. Sterling won't be worth toilet paper in a few months

Eh the euro currency is a disaster which has threatened to pull the whole continent into a black hole of debt and Schengen is dead with millions of illegals walking the roads of Europe with the go ahead from Merkel.

Hardy great examples.

Nody

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

People are not as stupid as it may be comforting to believe.

46% believed the brexit claims of the 350 million GBP a week to NHS was true; 38% knew it was false and the rest did not know. And this was after it was trumpeted out by newspapers it was incorrect math not taking into account how much money UK got paid back or the discount on the UK bill for months.

CMOTDibbler

timmyntc wrote: »

Well if Sterling does tank, then I'm sure they can find plenty of buyers for their exports, it won't be hard.

I don't think it will tank. Much.

The danger is inflation and increasing interest rates.

Francie Barrett

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

No one waste their time clicking that, ill informed claptrap.

Bandana boy

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

The question still has to be posed though, as to why individual voters do not equip themselves with freely available facts instead of listening and reacting to propaganda.

.

To slightly misquote Neil Degrasse Tyson

It is essentially a failure of the educators and the education systems that generations of people have arrived at adulthood unable to make a logical and rational choice.

CMOTDibbler

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

The lack of economic development outside the south-east is the major issue in the UK. But to allow that failure to be laid at the feet of EU immigration without any meaningful discussion and the wholesale swallowing of that lie is just unbelievable.

I'm not getting into the pit of making UKIP's arguments for them, but increasing the labour supply will typically restrain or diminish wages; it will increase the difficulty in finding work, and it will push up demands on public and private resources, such as housing, access to healthcare, etc.

The UK has the second-highest inward migration in the EU (gross & also net inward migration). Ireland has nothing like that experience, so it's easy to see why Ireland doesn't share the same concerns. It doesn't struggle with resource allocation in the same way. Most countries do not.

The only country with higher inward migration is Germany, and Germany needs a labour force in a way that the UK does not.

Now I sound like I am anti-immigrant; I'm not, and I can think of plenty of arguments of principle to counteract what I have just written. But not fact. I can't deny those facts.

My point, simply, is that the above are legitimate positions to take. They are valid, factual arguments, even if we don't subscribe to them on principle.

Nody

Nody wrote: »

46% believed the brexit claims of the 350 million GBP a week to NHS was true; 38% knew it was false and the rest did not know. And this was after it was trumpeted out by newspapers it was incorrect math not taking into account how much money UK got paid back or the discount on the UK bill for months.

The human mind struggles even to comprehend the magnitude of 1 million.

Whether it's £350 million per week or £120 million per week, it just isn't acceptable to these people. I can see their point. I don't share it, but it's legit.

Francie Barrett

Samsung considering moving their UK HQ

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20160624000887

timmyntc

Bandana boy wrote: »

To slightly misquote Neil Degrasse Tyson

It is essentially a failure of the educators and the education systems that generations of people have arrived at adulthood unable to make a logical and rational choice.

Ahh Neil Degrasse Tyson, the failed astrophysicist who made a career in pop science. Truly he is a reputable source for political wisdom.

Studies show that intelligence is greatly impacted by ones upbringing within the home, so to lump all the blame on education systems is a cop out.

Plenty of people have gone to terrible schools in impoverished areas and still gone on to get university educated and succeed in life, and plenty of people have gone to fee paying schools and are still as thick as a plank.

spintheglobe

Well in 2 Years we all know more but it is not great news for the future of Europe

partyguinness

whatever_ wrote: »

Though not directly relevant to your points, I was talking about 1989 and 2009, not 1945 or 1995.
And they are completely in context - the reunification of Germany, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Financial Crisis were far bigger issues than this. Again, this "car crash" rhetoric is ridiculous. We're going to extract ourselves from a political superstructure. That is all.

I think we are in agreement but using different analogies.

Nody

Here's an interesting fact; UK can not start negotiating any new trade deals until they have successfully left EU because until that point they are bound by EU law and regulation which does not allow individual countries to negotiate on their own. This means all the vaunted ideas can only really start once they are out of EU which will leave a big gap for deals not to exist (trade deals are not done in a day after all).

A Tyrant Named Miltiades!

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I'm not getting into the pit of making UKIP's arguments for them, but increasing the labour supply will typically restrain or diminish wages; it will increase the difficulty in finding work, and it will push up demands on public and private resources, such as housing, access to healthcare, etc.

The UK has the second-highest inward migration in the EU (gross & also net inward migration). Ireland has nothing like that experience, so it's easy to see why Ireland doesn't share the same concerns. It doesn't struggle with resource allocation in the same way. Most countries do not.

The only country with higher inward migration is Germany, and Germany needs a labour force in a way that the UK does not.

Now I sound like I am anti-immigrant; I'm not, and I can think of plenty of arguments of principle to counteract what I have just written. But not fact. I can't deny those facts.

My point, simply, is that the above are legitimate positions to take. They are valid, factual arguments, even if we don't subscribe to them on principle.

Really? Got a link?

Never mind, here's one that says in 2015 the UK's foreign-born population made up 11.3% of the total, while in Ireland it was 15.9%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_immigrant_population

Nody

Nody wrote: »

Here's an interesting fact; UK can not start negotiating any new trade deals until they have successfully left EU

Is Jean Claude going to stop a British diplomat in Brasilia or New Dehli from inviting a Minister to dinner?

Of course these people are talking already. Diplomats never stop talking. the CJEU is not going to stop them. That's a ridiculous notion, in fairness.