Brexit Referendum Superthread

Beta Ray Bill

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Samsung considering moving their UK HQ

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20160624000887

They are not the only one
I have a "friend" that works in Citi Group Belfast, and the word going roud there is that they are planning on moving the Jobs to Dublin (1,200 approx)

Although nothing is official yet.

Morgan Stanly based in London are in the same boat.
BBC cited sources inside, but the company's offical line is: the jobs aren't moving.

If you think about it though, a transition period to move 1,200 or 2,000 Job would easily take 2 years to complete.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Really? Got a link?

Never mind, here's one that says in 2015 the UK's foreign-born population made up 11.3% of the total, while in Ireland it was 13.8%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_immigrant_population

Oh, so you wanted a link for a completely different statistic?

Because I was talking about annual migration flows.

Ally Dick

whatever_ wrote: »

Lol ! Are you trying to say "Sterling WILL be worth toilet paper in a couple of months" ? Who's got huffy, jingoistic opinions !

No. It will be so worthless that it won't be worth using as toilet paper

timmyntc

grahambo wrote: »

They are not the only one
I have a "friend" that works in Citi Group Belfast, and the word going roud there is that they are planning on moving the Jobs to Dublin (1,200 approx)

Although nothing is official yet.

Morgan Stanly based in London are in the same boat.
BBC cited sources inside, but the company's offical line is: the jobs aren't moving.

If you think about it though, a transition period to move 1,200 or 2,000 Job would easily take 2 years to complete.

Citi already have a large office in Dublin, doubtful whether they'd move the whole operation there. Surely having an office in UK would be advantageous too?

A Tyrant Named Miltiades!

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Oh, so you wanted a link for a completely different statistic?

Because I was talking about annual migration flows.

Go for it, on a percentage of population basis for the last 10 years or 15 if you fancy. Since Ireland really only saw large-scale immigration in the last 12 years or so, and the figure hit that height in that time year the UK's is lower despite a longer history of immigration.

Beta Ray Bill

timmyntc wrote: »

Citi already have a large office in Dublin, doubtful whether they'd move the whole operation there. Surely having an office in UK would be advantageous too?

You are correct, they do have an office in Dublin
However as I said. Nothing is official (Just probable I suppose)

If the people working for Citi in Belfast are selling primarily into the EU, then yeah it would make sense to move to Dublin

If they are selling primarily into the UK then it would make sense to stay put.

I don't know who they target to sell to ya know?

CMOTDibbler

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I'm not getting into the pit of making UKIP's arguments for them, but increasing the labour supply will typically restrain or diminish wages; it will increase the difficulty in finding work, and it will push up demands on public and private resources, such as housing, access to healthcare, etc.

No argument here about the effect of immigration on wages etc. However, immigration is also dependant on the avilability of work, so although it can create pressures, it also balances out in the long run.

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

The UK has the second-highest inward migration in the EU (gross & also net inward migration). Ireland has nothing like that experience, so it's easy to see why Ireland doesn't share the same concerns. It doesn't struggle with resource allocation in the same way. Most countries do not.

But UK immigration is not just from the EU. Non-EU immigration is about half the total figure. So leaving the EU will at best half the figure of net immigration from the EU and will most likely reduce the emigration of British citizens to the EU (125,000 last year).

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

The only country with higher inward migration is Germany, and Germany needs a labour force in a way that the UK does not.

But that's only half the story. Net migration from the EU is the figure we really should be looking at surely?

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

My point, simply, is that the above are legitimate positions to take. They are valid, factual arguments, even if we don't subscribe to them.

And it's how those facts are portrayed as well. Net immigration to the UK from all countries is less than 0.5% of their total population. In Irish terms that would be 22,500 people. In 2014 there were over 67,000 immigrants to Ireland (I don't have the net figure but the gross figure for the UK in the same year was 1% of the total; still proportionally less than us).

Suryavarman

The argument that the EU is undemocratic really is something.

Commissioners aren't elected in the most democratic fashion but they're elected by our elected national governments. Somewhat akin to how the House of Lords is elected. Then the EU parliament is voted on directly by the people and there are no whip systems in place. Whereas, in the UK 60% of the votes in 2015 went to politicians that have no say in how the country is run. The head of state is then an unelected monarch.

People claiming that the EU is undemocratic are just displaying their ignorance of how both the EU and UK political systems actually operate

CMOTDibbler

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

But UK immigration is not just from the EU. Non-EU immigration is about half the total figure. So leaving the EU will at best half the figure of net immigration from the EU and will most likely reduce the emigration of British citizens to the EU (125,000 last year).

But that's only half the story. Net migration from the EU is the figure we really should be looking at surely?

Well, not quite. Family reunification distorts that somewhat, e.g. where a mobile Slovakian woman is married to a third-country national, both individuals must ordinarily be granted residence in the UK. The scheme has been abused somewhat, although that's almost impossible to quantify. I think a lot of people just reject the principle anyway.

I'll try to distance myself from that argument, since I don't subscribe to it, having lived in the UK & elsewhere in the EU as an immigrant.

I'm just pointing out that one isn't a caveman for arguing this way. It's a fair, or at least an informed, factual point to invoke.

Beta Ray Bill

Suryavarman wrote: »

The head of state is then an unelected monarch.

True.

My undertsanding though is the Monarch have no real power.
I don't think Tony Blair needed approval from the Queen to go into Iraq in 2003.

Also, many of the Brits love the Royal Family

Suryavarman

Suryavarman wrote: »

People claiming that the EU is undemocratic are just displaying their ignorance of how both the EU and UK political systems actually operate

Oh here we go again. So the EU is perfectly democratic, is it? Nothing more needs to change? We don't need a parliament that can repeal a bloody law?!

CMOTDibbler

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Well, not quite. Family reunification distorts that somewhat, e.g. where a mobile Slovakian woman is married to a third-country national, both individuals must ordinarily be granted residence in the UK. The scheme has been abused somewhat, although that's almost impossible to quantify. I think a lot of people just reject the principle anyway.

I'll try to distance myself from that argument, since I don't subscribe to it, having lived in the UK & elsewhere in the EU as an immigrant.

I'm just pointing out that one isn't a caveman for arguing this way. It's a fair, or at least an informed, factual point to invoke.

My point was never the caveman one, it was the disinformation that played to people's fears. Largely unchallenged effectively.

Biggest search term on Google.co.uk today is "What is the EU"

Bandana boy

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

My point was never the caveman one, it was the disinformation that played to people's fears. Largely unchallenged effectively.

Biggest search term on Google.co.uk today is "What is the EU"

A day bloody late too , Jaysus Wept

J Mysterio

Have seen a lot of idiots with voters remorse.
'my whole family voted leave but now our eyes are open', 'I would vote differently now'

Beta Ray Bill

J Mysterio wrote: »

Have seen a lot of idiots with voters remorse.
'my whole family voted leave but now our eyes are open', 'I would vote differently now'

I know, it's pathetic isn't it?
Total Morons! People like that shouldn't be allowed to vote!

CMOTDibbler

Bandana boy wrote: »

A day bloody late too , Jaysus Wept

Just reinforcing my belief that this was more an internal vote aginst the government (and politicians generally) and a belief that it wouldn't carry.

The_Kew_Tour

I don't like the Fascist and Racist card being used by the Remain people either.

I know a Doctor from Ireland living in London who called the Out campaigners these remarks on his Facebook. Seen few in twitter too.

That's just as bad as Farge and his gang.

Farge was married to Irish woman too just out of interest.

The_Kew_Tour

Who votes though

Is it everyone over 18?

Is it people who are educated?

Do we leave out people who do not agree with your opinion?

What is your solution?

Cause many are complaining but no answer

Nody

J Mysterio wrote: »

Have seen a lot of idiots with voters remorse.
'my whole family voted leave but now our eyes are open', 'I would vote differently now'

Wonder if that would lead into the route out; taking as a fact the Brexit leadership did not really want to leave (power struggle for party leadership) as some already hinted or a plan dragging their feet to pull the plug (see Boris comments) to a new vote. Boris goes to EU, gets a new slightly sweeter deal (after all how many times has not the Greece package changed?) and as the vote is not binding calls a new vote on the new improved deal, with the voter's remorse, a better campaign gets the yes we stay vote required in 12 to 24 months.

With 12 months of turmoil, lower stock, companies planning to leave listed in newspapers/actually leaving etc. it could be enough to swing the vote I'd guess and Boris gets the legacy he wants while avoiding the likes of Scotland leaving etc.

Britain is full of morons!
They think they are a nation that can stand by itself.
They dominated half of the planet at one time, now they are really independent.

smjm

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

And it's how those facts are portrayed as well. Net immigration to the UK from all countries is less than 0.5% of their total population. In Irish terms that would be 22,500 people. In 2014 there were over 67,000 immigrants to Ireland (I don't have the net figure but the gross figure for the UK in the same year was 1% of the total; still proportionally less than us).

Not really a fair comparison. Ireland's population density is 65.3/km2 versus 406.9/km2 for England (where most of the net migration ends up). Like you say, it's how the facts are portrayed.

CMOTDibbler

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Who votes though

Is it everyone over 18?

Is it people who are educated?

Do we leave out people who do not agree with your opinion?

What is your solution?

Cause many are complaining but no answer

It's not about who voters themselves. It's about treating the voters with respect and not with dishonesty. There's an undercurrent of hatred in politics lately that has its roots in the lies and transgressions of the past. We're a long way from the gentle satire of 'Yes Minister'.

The_Kew_Tour

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

I don't like the Fascist and Racist card being used by the Remain people either.

I know a Doctor from Ireland living in London who called the Out campaigners these remarks on his Facebook. Seen few in twitter too.

That's just as bad as Farge and his gang.

Farge was married to Irish woman too just out of interest.

I hate accusations of racism being thrown around, too. It's a very ugly thing to be accused of, and doesn't apply to the vast majority of British people. There's no way that 50% of British voters, or anything like it, are racists.

Nigel Farage... that's another matter. His wife may be German, his ex may be Irish, and his surname may be distinctly Gallic, but he has said some unacceptable, bigoted things about Romanians and muslims.

The weirdest thing about racists is how specifc their hatred can be. I once worked with a guy who hated Italians. Other Mediterranean people he could abide, no problem, but don't get him started on "the Italians".

Beta Ray Bill

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Who votes though

Is it everyone over 18? <= Everyone aged 18 and over

Is it people who are educated? <= Yep and the uneducated

Do we leave out people who do not agree with your opinion? <= Nope

What is your solution? <= Not really a solution it's just Democracy

Cause many are complaining but no answer <= See above for answers

There ya go

whatever_

Interesting. Boris was hinting at this position (seeing an out vote as the start of a renegotiation) before he
joined Vote Leave. I think 12 months of turmoil is unlikely though. The financial markets have been blindsided, and sterling is down 10% on the day (from an unrealistically high position) and the FTSE is down 3 point something. I am only basing this on one day, but an interesting side show here is the complete lack of volatility. In the 80s/90s something like this would have triggered off "automatic sell" programs which would have accentuated the swings. I think from the Leave perspective, all this points to a very reasonable day on the markets, given that nobody seemed to see it coming.

CMOTDibbler

smjm wrote: »

Not really a fair comparison. Ireland's population density is 65.3/km2 versus 406.9/km2 for England (where most of the net migration ends up). Like you say, it's how the facts are portrayed.

We're not all farmers

There are countries with far higher population densities. Dublin (where most of our immigrants go*) has a population density of 3,000/km­2.



*I may be exaggerating here, although where the jobs and services are is where most end up.

Misguided1

""I am very much looking forward to working with our colleagues in our national government to build a very strong, outward-looking UK moving forward and of course Northern Ireland as a very key constituent part of that." Arelene Foster (from RTE News)

"Scotland has delivered a strong, unequivocal vote to remain in the EU and I welcome that endorsement of our European status.

"While the overall result remains to be declared, the vote here makes clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union."
Nicola Sturgeon (from RTE News)

Foster was pro Brexit but can she ignore the result?

CMOTDibbler

whatever_ wrote: »

Interesting. Boris was hinting at this position (seeing an out vote as the start of a renegotiation) before he
joined Vote Leave. I think 12 months of turmoil is unlikely though. The financial markets have been blindsided, and sterling is down 10% on the day (from an unrealistically high position) and the FTSE is down 3 point something. I am only basing this on one day, but an interesting side show here is the complete lack of volatility. In the 80s/90s something like this would have triggered off "automatic sell" programs which would have accentuated the swings. I think from the Leave perspective, all this points to a very reasonable day on the markets, given that nobody seemed to see it coming.

The markets are like sheep. Every morning they're frightened by the same tree that firghtened them yesterday morning. The difference is if the tree starts advancing on them.

smjm

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

We're not all farmers

There are countries with far higher population densities. Dublin (where most of our immigrants go*) has a population density of 3,000/km­2.



*I may be exaggerating here, although where the jobs and services are is where most end up.

Likewise, London has a density of 5,432/km2.

Whichever way you look at it, England's population is vastly greater than Ireland's, without a corresponding land mass ratio. If Ireland had a population 6 times greater than it has now, things might be a bit of a squeeze!

mansize

I imagine all the Brexiters expected to wake up today, with the men coming back from the mines or the factories and his wife serving him up some frothy warm ale while Vera Lynn plays on the wireless.