Brexit Referendum Superthread

Sam Russell

The Randy Riverbeast wrote: »

What these things are are a bit vague and the EU would also have to let them.

Which of course the EU would grant - in their dreams.

The best that they could attain is a Norway or Switzerland model - neither of which would be close to what the are expecting. More likely, Iceland.

BlitzKrieg

The Randy Riverbeast wrote: »

Haven't spent a lot of time looking into this, mostly just what I come across in my general browsing but what exactly do they intend to do when (or if) they leave? From what I can tell the plan is to leave the EU and then sign up to get all the benefits of the EU as possible while staying out of anything that could lead to a negative for them. What these things are are a bit vague and the EU would also have to let them.

Thats the million dollar question

Depending who you go to the answer is different.

Most seem to favour the Norway answer. Which is to negotiate from a position of strength of what they opt into and what not.

Course Norway pretty much signs up to every law the EU passes. But have the strength to influence things because Norway has a bargaining chip with their natural resources. Something the UK cant claim to. Though some think the UK with its bigger population and bigger economy and market could, what most miss is that the UK competes with other EU nations in a lot of these markets and its been mostly EU agreeements that have kept one from attempting to massively undercut the other. Norway really doesnt compete directly with a lot of the EU states, partly the reason why they didnt join in the first place. The UK though pretty much has competition across the board, except maybe for London as a financial peg of the world.

Out of the EU it can swing either to the EU members like France attempting to undercut the UK or the UK could try to undercut the EU. Either way it'll become a race to the bottom in some industries and while it might benefit a few it will more likely see a lowering in standards in the UK or EU. More likely the UK because they'll also be conveniently backing out of the european charter of human rights and the european courts of justice


Though saying all that UKIP have openly stated they dont want a Norway style system. They want the UK to tighten its relations with the commonwealth, offering EU style trade and open borders with the commonwealth. Course when you look at the commonwealth thats really only 3 or 4 countries that would benefit the Uk in trade and open boarders and a lot of countries that wont.

Other suggestions have been just to knuckle down on the EU wanting to trade with the UK more then the UK needing to trade with the EU and just renegotiating each deal one by one.




The Norway plan is popular though because it answers the immediate issues which is when the Uk votes no how does it go about dealing with all the agreements and processess currently in effect with the EU right now. PEACE IV just launched a funding scheme funded by the EU to support peace process events and institutes in Northern Ireland and on the Boarder counties, if the UK pulls out what happens to that (or the Good Friday agreement as a whole as its tied to the European Charter of Human rights) The Norway plan lets people think that the Uk can just tick what stays and what goes in a little list and everything is adjusted without fuss.

Which is of course not possible. The lisbon system for a state leaving the EU is designed for them to outright leave. So the UK will have to completely remove itself and then come back in with a norway style agreement.



Pretty much whatever happens it wont be painless, the economy will take an immediate pounding regardless of how people feel about the EU and UK because the government will look like complete idiots and that will echo across the EU. But Brexit promises fish and chips for everyone just beyond the present in the distant possible utopian future.

Lemming

Just a point of clarification BlitzKreig; the ECJ is a pan-european institution, not an EU institution to the best of my recollection. So, to back out of the EU would not imply backing out of the ECJ although I'm sure the toddler-logic-wielding bigots UKIP et. al would quite merrily back out of that too because it has the word "Europe" in it.

whatstherush

Lemming wrote: »

Just a point of clarification BlitzKreig; the ECJ is a pan-european institution, not an EU institution to the best of my recollection. So, to back out of the EU would not imply backing out of the ECJ although I'm sure the toddler-logic-wielding bigots UKIP et. al would quite merrily back out of that too because it has the word "Europe" in it.

Think your mixing up the ECJ (European Court of Justice ) which rules on EU law and the ECHR ( European Court of Human Rights) which is the pan European institution.

BoJack Horseman

Anyone else bemused by the collective masks slipping over at UK Labour of late?
Ken Livingstone is doing a 'ken livingstone' today

Jezza's Labour might just be the stupidest party in the western world.

**Edit - to clarify & I hope I have the time line right....

Ken visits television centre to give an interview about Labour & their 'problems'.

When he gets there is is accosted by a Labour MP John Man:

https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/725640479367385088

Car-crash ensues... do watch.

After this, Ken is swamped by reporters as he tries to leave.
He tries to escape by hiding in a disabled toilet



From here he apparently gives another bad interview to Radio 4's World at One show.

Meanwhile, Malcom Tucker is going ballistic.



Minutes later, Livingstone was suspended by the Labour Party.

Armando Iannanucci could not have done better!

micosoft

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Most seem to favour the Norway answer. Which is to negotiate from a position of strength of what they opt into and what not.

Course Norway pretty much signs up to every law the EU passes. But have the strength to influence things because Norway has a bargaining chip with their natural resources.

That's not really the case though. In fact they are in a very weak position. The Norwegian Government call it "fax diplomacy" and say they have little influence - I'm not sure anyone could point to a change in EU legislation instigated by Norway. And this isn't just my opinion. It's the Norwegian Prime Ministers Opinion!*

I would say Norwegian Oil is lets them sit outside rather than having any use as a bargaining chip. It subsidises a poor economic choice. Nice to have but nobody else has this.

*Interestingly when I went to google a reference for "fax diplomacy" I found a number of UK Brexiter "blogs" telling a lot of porkies about Norways relationship with the EU and pushing down more reliable sources. A lot of money being spent on misinformation out there guys!

BlitzKrieg

micosoft wrote: »

That's not really the case though. In fact they are in a very weak position. The Norwegian Government call it "fax diplomacy" and say they have little influence - I'm not sure anyone could point to a change in EU legislation instigated by Norway. And this isn't just my opinion. It's the Norwegian Prime Ministers Opinion!*

I would say Norwegian Oil is lets them sit outside rather than having any use as a bargaining chip. It subsidises a poor economic choice. Nice to have but nobody else has this.

*Interestingly when I went to google a reference for "fax diplomacy" I found a number of UK Brexiter "blogs" telling a lot of porkies about Norways relationship with the EU and pushing down more reliable sources. A lot of money being spent on misinformation out there guys!

I stand corrected and have noted that link and quote.

Though it still stands that Norway had a very unique asset associated with it that it doesnt end up competing with other EU states with which allows its economy to hold outside the EU.

the problem with the UK can be shown by these two contrasting charts

UK TOP 5 EXPORTS http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-exports/

Machines, engines, pumps: US$63.9 billion (13.9% of total exports)
Gems, precious metals: $53 billion (11.5%)
Vehicles: $50.7 billion (11%)
Pharmaceuticals: $36 billion (7.8%)
Oil: $33.2 billion (7.2%)

NORWAY's TOP 5 EXPORTS http://www.worldstopexports.com/norways-top-10-exports/

Oil: US$61.3 billion (58.1% of total exports)
Fish: $8.8 billion (8.3%)
Machines, engines, pumps: $6.8 billion (6.5%)
Aluminum: $3.5 billion (3.3%)
Electronic equipment: $2.9 billion (2.8%)

notice how Norway's top export is more then the next 4 combined

But with the UK any single export is comparable to the other

Well thats why the UK cant be Norway

because Norway so massively outsells in Oil that it can survive on it

the uk is spread thin over industries that other EU states can compete with them in and any one taking a hit from suddenly needing to compete with the EU will seriously hurt the UK.


EDIT: On a side note, is Scofflaw still posting EU wise? That's a man who can crush a eruoskeptic with a weight of fact and I miss the lisbon debates just for the pildriver he'd bring.

whatever_

The Randy Riverbeast wrote: »

Haven't spent a lot of time looking into this, mostly just what I come across in my general browsing but what exactly do they intend to do when (or if) they leave? From what I can tell the plan is to leave the EU and then sign up to get all the benefits of the EU as possible while staying out of anything that could lead to a negative for them. What these things are are a bit vague and the EU would also have to let them.

Wow ! You've really spent some time on this haven't you.

As someone with strong ties to London, I am voting to leave because

1. We cannot continue to sustain a net 300,000 migrants every year into the South-East of England. Our hospitals, schools, public transport network and indeed all public services simply cannot cope. Our economy isn't (and never will be) the type of economy that needs large numbers of unskilled workers. We struggle to find jobs for our unskilled workers already.

2. Britain is a strong democracy which produces strong governments of different complexions. We have a strong and independent central bank and have control of our own currency. This latter point saved us from catastrophe a few years ago (had we been in the Euro, we would have sunk it). In short, Europe and its associated institutions bring nothing to the party for us. At best, they are seen as an unnecessary waste of money (we are one of the few countries in Europe who have made a net contribution since we joined).

3. 90% of British Companies do no trade with Europe. Britain is a net importer from the EU and is the 6th largest economy in the World. Inevitably, there will be trade deals, but frankly, most of us that are going to vote to leave do not care if the economy suffers and growth is slower over the next few years. If the international financial community do overreact, the only real consequence will be a weaker pound which means more jobs for British workers (and hopefully fewer even more expensive smartphones).

The benefits of lower immigration (being able to get a seat on a train that we pay £4000 a year to travel on, being able to get our kids into local schools where most of the kids speak English as a first language etc), the sense of independence etc are the more important issues. Obviously, the further away from London you travel, the less people tend to think like this. But the people who think like me, can still remember a time when the EU didn't stick it's oar in at every opportunity. We have strong opinions, and we will go out and vote, unlike many people on the other side of the debate. Time will tell. Whatever happens, the EU has already started to change as a result of Britain's debate (eg Junker's recent comments).

marienbad

whatever_ wrote: »

Wow ! You've really spent some time on this haven't you.

As someone with strong ties to London, I am voting to leave because

1. We cannot continue to sustain a net 300,000 migrants every year into the South-East of England. Our hospitals, schools, public transport network and indeed all public services simply cannot cope. Our economy isn't (and never will be) the type of economy that needs large numbers of unskilled workers. We struggle to find jobs for our unskilled workers already.

2. Britain is a strong democracy which produces strong governments of different complexions. We have a strong and independent central bank and have control of our own currency. This latter point saved us from catastrophe a few years ago (had we been in the Euro, we would have sunk it). In short, Europe and its associated institutions bring nothing to the party for us. At best, they are seen as an unnecessary waste of money (we are one of the few countries in Europe who have made a net contribution since we joined).

3. 90% of British Companies do no trade with Europe. Britain is a net importer from the EU and is the 6th largest economy in the World. Inevitably, there will be trade deals, but frankly, most of us that are going to vote to leave do not care if the economy suffers and growth is slower over the next few years. If the international financial community do overreact, the only real consequence will be a weaker pound which means more jobs for British workers (and hopefully fewer even more expensive smartphones).

The benefits of lower immigration (being able to get a seat on a train that we pay £4000 a year to travel on, being able to get our kids into local schools where most of the kids speak English as a first language etc), the sense of independence etc are the more important issues. Obviously, the further away from London you travel, the less people tend to think like this. But the people who think like me, can still remember a time when the EU didn't stick it's oar in at every opportunity. We have strong opinions, and we will go out and vote, unlike many people on the other side of the debate. Time will tell. Whatever happens, the EU has already started to change as a result of Britain's debate (eg Junker's recent comments).

So it all boils down to 'dem foreigners ' taking all the seats on the train , which of course will always run on time in your brave new world .:(

Inquitus

whatever_ wrote: »

Wow ! You've really spent some time on this haven't you.

As someone with strong ties to London, I am voting to leave because

1. We cannot continue to sustain a net 300,000 migrants every year into the South-East of England. Our hospitals, schools, public transport network and indeed all public services simply cannot cope. Our economy isn't (and never will be) the type of economy that needs large numbers of unskilled workers. We struggle to find jobs for our unskilled workers already.

2. Britain is a strong democracy which produces strong governments of different complexions. We have a strong and independent central bank and have control of our own currency. This latter point saved us from catastrophe a few years ago (had we been in the Euro, we would have sunk it). In short, Europe and its associated institutions bring nothing to the party for us. At best, they are seen as an unnecessary waste of money (we are one of the few countries in Europe who have made a net contribution since we joined).

3. 90% of British Companies do no trade with Europe. Britain is a net importer from the EU and is the 6th largest economy in the World. Inevitably, there will be trade deals, but frankly, most of us that are going to vote to leave do not care if the economy suffers and growth is slower over the next few years. If the international financial community do overreact, the only real consequence will be a weaker pound which means more jobs for British workers (and hopefully fewer even more expensive smartphones).

The benefits of lower immigration (being able to get a seat on a train that we pay £4000 a year to travel on, being able to get our kids into local schools where most of the kids speak English as a first language etc), the sense of independence etc are the more important issues. Obviously, the further away from London you travel, the less people tend to think like this. But the people who think like me, can still remember a time when the EU didn't stick it's oar in at every opportunity. We have strong opinions, and we will go out and vote, unlike many people on the other side of the debate. Time will tell. Whatever happens, the EU has already started to change as a result of Britain's debate (eg Junker's recent comments).

EU Immigrants are net contributors to the UK Treasury, turf them out and you'll have less money to invest in infrastructure and less money to subsidise the multi-generational British dole seekers who unlike the EU immigrants contribute nothing.

K-9

marienbad wrote: »

So it all boils down to 'dem foreigners ' taking all the seats on the train , which of course will always run on time in your brave new world .:(

Mod:

When somebody goes to the bother of a detailed post could we please not reduce it one liners like that, thank you.

BlitzKrieg

whatever_ wrote: »

Wow ! You've really spent some time on this haven't you.

As someone with strong ties to London, I am voting to leave because

1. We cannot continue to sustain a net 300,000 migrants every year into the South-East of England. Our hospitals, schools, public transport network and indeed all public services simply cannot cope. Our economy isn't (and never will be) the type of economy that needs large numbers of unskilled workers. We struggle to find jobs for our unskilled workers already.

The % of EU immigration into the UK still has the majority of immigration coming from the EU15 states meaning the states that made up the EU when Britain joined. You can see a chart here:



As you can see of the 3 groups the EU15 is the largest immigration population into the EU while EU8 and EU2 are smaller and while EU2 is on the increase, EU8 is in decline.

Why this is important is because over 50% of EU citizens arriving to the UK for work arrive with a job already in hand

IPS estimates show approximately 58% (96,000) of all EU immigrants arriving for work-related reasons reported they had a definite job to go to (the remaining 42% (69,000) came looking for work).

(source:http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/february2016#net-migration-to-the-uk )


So while the UK is not the sort of economy that needs a large unskilled workforce, it does appear to be one that needs to hire skilled workers from other areas of the EU as that accounts for almost 60% of all EU immigration into the country.

And as someone with not just strong ties to london but actually is employed, lives and works in London I can confirm this. My current employer wouldnt survive if the UK was out of the EU because the skilled workforce they need (animators) is in short supply in the UK so they hired animators from France, Ireland, Poland and Malta on top of the British animators they already hired.

2. Britain is a strong democracy which produces strong governments of different complexions. We have a strong and independent central bank and have control of our own currency. This latter point saved us from catastrophe a few years ago (had we been in the Euro, we would have sunk it). In short, Europe and its associated institutions bring nothing to the party for us. At best, they are seen as an unnecessary waste of money (we are one of the few countries in Europe who have made a net contribution since we joined).

Britain still uses first pass the post for its elections, so strong is another word for idiotic or unfair to some. As for the euro etc, well yes the UK was free to make its own choice to join the euro or not and they did. Though to say the EU brings nothing to the UK is foolish when you consider economically how much the trade agreements made within the EU have benefitted the UK and british businesses and on politically you consider how much support areas such as Northern Ireland have benefited from EU funding and support, not to mention the EU being a core factor in the peace process there. Scotland and Whales are statistically more pro European Union then southern England because it has been with EU support that cities like Cardiff and Glasgow have flourished and grown in recent years.

3. 90% of British Companies do no trade with Europe. Britain is a net importer from the EU and is the 6th largest economy in the World. Inevitably, there will be trade deals, but frankly, most of us that are going to vote to leave do not care if the economy suffers and growth is slower over the next few years. If the international financial community do overreact, the only real consequence will be a weaker pound which means more jobs for British workers (and hopefully fewer even more expensive smartphones).

The UK also (as I touched in an earlier post) predominantly exports in industries that would if put outside the EU put it in direct competition with the EU, so even if they were not exporting to the EU they would still suffer as they will be forced to compete with the much stronger bloc of the EU.

As touched on before, the reason this does not affect Norway is because their economy predominantly relies on Oil and that accounts for over 50% of its exports.

The UK exports is split rather evenly across numerous businesses, many of which will suffer from losing membership to the EU.

The benefits of lower immigration (being able to get a seat on a train that we pay £4000 a year to travel on, being able to get our kids into local schools where most of the kids speak English as a first language etc), the sense of independence etc are the more important issues. Obviously, the further away from London you travel, the less people tend to think like this.

You seem to be mistaken. Opinion polls of the EU show London to be quite pro-EU. Including the area I live in being in the top 10 pro EU areas.

(https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/28/eurosceptic-map-britain/)

though the area around london is different but not unexpected story. You also are not accounting for quite a number of issues in your utopion migrant free dream.

1. With the majority of EU migration being from the EU15, that includes Ireland, which if the UK leaves the EU will have no affect on migration from Ireland which still counts as one of the larger migration nations into the UK

2. The 60% that arrive to the UK already with jobs may not cease if the UK government cuts a deal so immigration will not drop as you expect as about 60% of it will continue to keep coming as it is required by most of the UK's larger businesses.

So Immigration will not have the massive drop you are hoping unless you want your government to openly block independent businesses in the UK from hiring foreign nationals which you may because thats what you want but it will not just be a slight tumble for the economy if such practices drive businesses away.

Sam Russell

@ Blitzkreig:

What percentage of immigrants from the EU are Irish, and how many arrive with jobs?

Lemming

FYI for anyone wanting to view the eu-support opinion poll that Blitzkrieg posted, here's the corrected link

I'm surprised at just how pro-EU London would appear to be, which just goes to show just how much of a platform that the fantasy-land-toddlers leave-campaign have been given by the media. Nice to see that Sheffield is pro-EU, although I'm both surprised and not so much surprised at Rotherham leaning towards the leave campaign; on one hand it's a very working-mans Labour stronghold, but it's also got a considerable BNP/EDL presence too. If you draw a triangle between Rotherham, Barnsley, and Doncaster you basically have a notable BNP stronghold. I'm embarassed to admit that a lot of my friends are absolutely thick as pigsh1t when it comes to the EU and occasionally come out with the absolute w@nkery b0llocks that Michael Gove who? and UKIP routinely spout out.

BlitzKrieg

Sam Russell wrote: »

@ Blitzkreig:

What percentage of immigrants from the EU are Irish, and how many arrive with jobs?

sadly the statistics dont go that deep. They split EU immigrants into 3 catagories when it came to those arriving with jobs in hand and those looking and that was EU15, EU8 and EU2 they didnt go in any further detail on nationalities.

In fact I'm sometimes unsure of how well Irish immigration is counted in the UK because sometimes we are counted as part of EU immigration but other times we are treated as a separate category due to our own agreements with the UK separate to the EU.

I thought it was led to the confusion relating to the NI numbers not matching the immigration figures recently but actually that turned out to be because the the statistics for NI numbers were inflated greatly due to the system of how they were tracked had been reorganised and that the most recent figures were counting a much wider range then the immigration figures.

source: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/456074/nino-registrations-adult-overseas-nationals-june-2015.pdf

* Although figures do accurately reflect the number of NINos registered over time, a change to the process of
recording NINos in 2014, means that the volume of NINo registrations were lower in the year to June 2014 and
then higher in the latest year to June 2015 than would otherwise be the case. Therefore, comparisons of NINo
registrations over time between these periods should be viewed with caution.

But that wont get reported in most newspapers it seems

Sam Russell

I would imagine the Irish immigration would distort these figures greatly. If Britain leaves the EU, will there be free immigration from Ireland? How would they stop it? Would they want to stop it?

BlitzKrieg

Sam Russell wrote: »

I would imagine the Irish immigration would distort these figures greatly. If Britain leaves the EU, will there be free immigration from Ireland? How would they stop it? Would they want to stop it?

Irish immigration is different, free immigration is based on a seperate agreement between just the UK and Ireland and not part of the schengen agreement.

Which means if the UK leaves the EU it changes nothing about irish immigration

though as Ireland remains part of the EU it will mean an increase of passport checks essentially replacing the EU queue with a British/Irish queue and EU member states will be pushed into the international queue.

Which will affect flights between ireland and the UK such as Ryanair who use the free travel to essentially have almost 0 checks at the british end of the flights (if you've ever flown into stansted you would know this) so they wont be happy.

More cautiously though will be the northern ireland boarder which may have issues too.


Also currently enjoying the detail that most campaigners forget irish people living in the UK can vote in this referendum, so I've been told a number of times that they are lucky I cant vote which lets me have this sh*t eating grin as I tell them I can and it has nothing to do with the EU.

The Randy Riverbeast

whatever_ wrote: »

Wow ! You've really spent some time on this haven't you.

As someone with strong ties to London, I am voting to leave because

1. We cannot continue to sustain a net 300,000 migrants every year into the South-East of England. Our hospitals, schools, public transport network and indeed all public services simply cannot cope. Our economy isn't (and never will be) the type of economy that needs large numbers of unskilled workers. We struggle to find jobs for our unskilled workers already.

2. Britain is a strong democracy which produces strong governments of different complexions. We have a strong and independent central bank and have control of our own currency. This latter point saved us from catastrophe a few years ago (had we been in the Euro, we would have sunk it). In short, Europe and its associated institutions bring nothing to the party for us. At best, they are seen as an unnecessary waste of money (we are one of the few countries in Europe who have made a net contribution since we joined).

3. 90% of British Companies do no trade with Europe. Britain is a net importer from the EU and is the 6th largest economy in the World. Inevitably, there will be trade deals, but frankly, most of us that are going to vote to leave do not care if the economy suffers and growth is slower over the next few years. If the international financial community do overreact, the only real consequence will be a weaker pound which means more jobs for British workers (and hopefully fewer even more expensive smartphones).

The benefits of lower immigration (being able to get a seat on a train that we pay £4000 a year to travel on, being able to get our kids into local schools where most of the kids speak English as a first language etc), the sense of independence etc are the more important issues. Obviously, the further away from London you travel, the less people tend to think like this. But the people who think like me, can still remember a time when the EU didn't stick it's oar in at every opportunity. We have strong opinions, and we will go out and vote, unlike many people on the other side of the debate. Time will tell. Whatever happens, the EU has already started to change as a result of Britain's debate (eg Junker's recent comments).

That still leaves the question, what do they plan on doing? You are expecting them to throw out EU citizens and increase the cost of living and devalue the currency so there might be a few more seats on the train. When they don't do that what are you going to do? Smile to yourself as you stand there paying more for your tickets? If your lucky you'll get a seat out of those increased prices. People can talk all they want about what should happen but nobody has actually put any effort into it.

If the EU brings nothing to the UK why would the UK want to make deals with the EU? If they can't sit at the big boys table in the club why would they get to when they aren't a member?

Sam Russell

That sums up the problem for the leavists - the remainders know what they will get if they win but the leavists have no idea how this will pan out even if they win by a landslide - back of the queue anyone?

If Scotland votes heavily to remain and the UK votes to leave, then Scottish independence is back on the table with a certainty of being carried. If NI votes to remain in the same circumstances, then what?

Barrack Obama has caused a shift towards remain, but early days.

whatever_

though the area around london is different but not unexpected story. You also are not accounting for quite a number of issues in your utopion migrant free dream.

I started scanning what appeared to be an intelligent response to my post, and then I saw the above, which is a complete misrepresentation of what I said. I then didn't bother to spend any more time thinking about what you were trying to say. By the way, if you really live in London, you should at least know it starts with a capital L. However, I would not expect you to be able to spell utopian (with or without the capital U).

Where the left go wrong in this debate (in Ireland as well as Britain), is to call anybody who opposes mass economic migration a racist. This alienates large numbers of people right across the spectrum from Labour to Tory. The whole issue is more complex than that, and I did at least try to provide you an insight into why many of my generation will vote to leave.

That sums up the problem for the leavists - the remainders know what they will get if they win but the leavists have no idea how this will pan out even if they win by a landslide - back of the queue anyone?

As per my previous post, we have every idea how this will pan out. On the other hand two issues (migration and the weak Euro) are dominating proceedings in the EU, with no prospect of real progress on anything else until the stalemate is resolved.

BlitzKrieg

so we are not having a discussion on this then?

Curses my misuse of the word *free* and my shoddy spelling have foiled my attempt to have an intelligent sourced discussion on an important issue. I guess I'll stick to correcting false claims and continue to hope that someone might actually follow up on so many issues that remain unanswered. I also have to of course turn in my Oyster card cause I failed to give london the capital L it deserves.

Oh dear I've done it again...

Lemming

whatever_ wrote: »

As per my previous post, we have every idea how this will pan out.

By all means, do enlighten the rest of us with your considered, analysis driven foresight. I have yet to hear a single "leave" politician (or supporter for that matter ... ) say anything that remotely borders on reality instead of spin, hyperbole, or outright dishonesty.

Edit: Incidentally, that last post of which you speak might not be as considered or thoughtful as you think ....

djpbarry

whatever_ wrote: »

We cannot continue to sustain a net 300,000 migrants every year into the South-East of England.

Ignoring for a moment that migrants head to areas of the UK other than South East England, the British government could curb immigration any time it wanted to by putting greater restrictions on non-EU migrants. But it hasn’t, because it would be economically damaging to do so.

whatever_ wrote: »

Our economy isn't (and never will be) the type of economy that needs large numbers of unskilled workers.

Most immigrants are not “unskilled” and if the UK removes itself from the EU, a lot of employers are going to struggle to fill “skilled” positions.

whatever_ wrote: »

Britain is a strong democracy...

Meaning what exactly? Britain is more likely to have single party governments due to its ridiculously outdated electoral system?

whatever_ wrote: »

90% of British Companies do no trade with Europe. Britain is a net importer from the EU and is the 6th largest economy in the World.

About half of British exports go to other EU countries. That’s a big chunk. Somewhat less than half of EU exports go to the UK. Quite a bit less.

whatever_ wrote: »

...most of us that are going to vote to leave do not care if the economy suffers and growth is slower over the next few years.

At least you’re being honest – there is no sound economic argument for the UK to leave the EU.

whatever_ wrote: »

Whatever happens, the EU has already started to change as a result of Britain's debate (eg Junker's recent comments).

Because Britain has had absolutely no influence on the EU before now?!?

K-9

Mod:

Folks, less of the insults and more debate on the issues please.

The Randy Riverbeast

whatever_ wrote: »

As per my previous post, we have every idea how this will pan out. On the other hand two issues (migration and the weak Euro) are dominating proceedings in the EU, with no prospect of real progress on anything else until the stalemate is resolved.

Within the top 10 countries immigrating to the UK (using 2012 estimates) 3 are from the EU. Poland, Ireland, and Germany. The Irish won't be going anywhere so we will only see a drop in Polish people and Germans entering the country at most, those who already live in Britain are unlikely to be thrown out. Out of the top 10 countries, 2 will see a reductions. I somehow doubt people will see an end to "mass" immigration.

I'm not sure how showing the EU that Britain is perfectly capable of devaluing their own currency helps.

Short term, the economy is worse. Long term, something might get figured out with less Germans and Polish.

whatever_

djpbarry wrote: »

Ignoring for a moment that migrants head to areas of the UK other than South East England, the British government could curb immigration any time it wanted to by putting greater restrictions on non-EU migrants.

This debate is about Brexit and so non-EU migration (which is an entirely different issue) is irrelevant. The 3 million EU economic migrants in Britain live primarily in the South-East and this is where the pressure on services is most acute.

Most immigrants are not “unskilled” and if the UK removes itself from the EU, a lot of employers are going to struggle to fill “skilled” positions.

I disagree. Many immigrants do not take up skilled work, and leaving the EU will not affect Britain's ability to attract skilled workers where it needs them. It's just a matter of adopting a selective policy (like Australia, USA etc).

Meaning what exactly? Britain is more likely to have single party governments due to its ridiculously outdated electoral system?

Meaning exactly what I said if you had read the full sentence. By the way, we like our electoral system. It produces strong governments (of the left and of the right). This has served us well. We vote and (generally speaking) the elected government delivers its manifesto (or gets called to account for not doing so). Your comment is not worthy of someone who is supposed to be a moderator on this forum. Intelligent people do not debate like that.

About half of British exports go to other EU countries. That’s a big chunk. Somewhat less than half of EU exports go to the UK. Quite a bit less.

Your Maths is wrong. As I said Britain is a net imported from the EU. Whatever happens, Britain will continue to be an important trading partner with the EU. Obama's comments on trade deals are wrong and irrelevant. There is no evidence that a large trading block like the EU is any better at negotiating trade deals than a small one. The EU still does not have a trade deal with the US. In my opinion Britain will be able to negotiate deals quickly with key trading partners where there is a mutual interest. The EU is too big and slow.

At least you’re being honest – there is no sound economic argument for the UK to leave the EU.

You are not being honest. I can think of £7.5 billion reasons a year why Britain should leave the EU. Then there is the issue of welfare payments to economic migrants, and the improvement in employment resulting from strategic investment (e.g. a protected UK steel industry free from EU interference).

Because Britain has had absolutely no influence on the EU before now?!?

I don't understand this - and what does "?!?" mean ? My point was that whether Britain stays or leaves, even Europhiles like Junkers are changing their tune (and the EU made a big mistake electing him). The party is over and other countries are going to start having the same debate.

BlitzKrieg

I disagree. Many immigrants do not take up skilled work, and leaving the EU will not affect Britain's ability to attract skilled workers where it needs them. It's just a matter of adopting a selective policy (like Australia, USA etc).

You may disagree but when the facts report that almost 60% of EU immigrants coming into the UK to work arrive already with a job offered to them prior to arriving that indicates that the majority are actually skilled workers.

A Dub in Glasgo

whatever_ wrote: »

I disagree. Many immigrants do not take up skilled work

.

I know 2 other Irish people working in Glasgow doing skilled jobs and with me included, that is 3 skilled jobs taken from the natives by immigrants

Lemming

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I know 2 other Irish people working in Glasgow doing skilled jobs and with me included, that is 3 skilled jobs taken from the natives by immigrants

To add to what Dub has said, when I moved to the UK (with a job in hand I might add ... ), I worked on the NHS (England & Wales) website. I was one among several immigrants to work on the website either in a development or business analyst capacity, and of that number, take a wild guess at how many - myself included - were from EU member states ....

I would like whatever_ to take that guess and tell us all what they think the answer is. It puts the whole "mass-immigration" hysteria thing into perspective and shows just how dishonest the leave campaign has been on the matter.

BlitzKrieg

I work in animation at the moment.

Over half of the animators on the production are from outside the UK, we have french, Irish, Polish, Greek, Italian etc. All arriving with work offered.

The production couldnt happen otherwise. There are a lot of older traditionally trained animators in the UK and a lot of young ones just out of college, but the industry is sorely lacking that middle area that is needed. So most of our heads of departments were British with years of experience, our lead animators were all from around europe and our assistant trainee animators were mostly young english and welsh just out of college getting their first feature length job.

And thats the film/TV industry in the UK, there is always a substantial % of every crew or production that is from around europe. I've worked from Endemol to Pinewood (wll technically shepperton but its part of pinewood) right down to independent shorts and there are always european crew members filling skilled roles.


Thats why the film/tv industry backs staying: http://www.broadcastnow.co.uk/news/brexit-the-tv-industry-reacts/5103078.article