Brexit Referendum Superthread

A Dub in Glasgo

Francie Barrett wrote: »

You're biased, but what's the situation in Scotland? If an independence referendum was held next year, would an exit from the EU realistically change things?

I think so, a few folk in work today felt betrayed after voting to stay with the UK in 2014 and vowed to vote Yes next time. They work for a German company and probably feel their jobs are at risk, I do not know if that is the case or not

Sam Russell

I have never understood why working class people vote Tory. They wreaked havoc in the North of England, particularly Liverpool. They closed the mines, the car factories and the steel mills. However they did create the City of London financial casino, where rules are few and profits large.

Is it because they feel they get some kind of reflected poshness from it?

I also did not understand why some nongenarians were being paraded on the TV in support of the leave side saying how much better the country was during the war (1939 to 1945) - I think it was the BBC. If I am right, was the war not the time that the bombs rained down and people were killed in their homes, and food was in desperate short supply? I doubt if they will still be alive when the UK actually leaves the EU let alone benefiting in the resulting Shangri-La.

The_Kew_Tour

Francie Barrett wrote: »

So now that the UK are out of the EU, the north of England is at free from the shackles of the EU and will surge forward economically?

I never said that, but what I did say is how much worse off can they be?

Cause it's got plenty of poverty. Great people, who found somebody to blame.

It's easy for us to talk from our better home comforts. Put yourself as a 30-50 year old growing up in these places

chasm

It's all just peachy apparently, if this post being shared all over my newsfeed is anything to go by.....

"So....

The £ plummeted. A Prime Minister resigned. The FTSE 100 lost significant ground. Then the £ rallied past February levels, and the FTSE closed on a weekly high: 2.4% up on last Friday, its best performance in 4 months. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong. The French President confirmed the Le Touquet agreement would stay in place. The President of the European Commission stated Brexit negotiations would be 'orderly' and stressed the UK would continue to be a 'close partner' of the EU. A big bank denied reports it would shift 2,000 staff overseas. The CBI, vehemently anti-Brexit during the referendum campaign, stated British business was resilient and would adapt. Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately. If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom."

The_Kew_Tour

just a thought

EU has 2 choices and in relation to us.

It can throw all the toys out of the pram and make Ireland suffer over the result, like a spoilt child

Or

It can grasp a opportunity and show Britain what it messed up by providing Ireland and other nations with good solid backing all round.

This will be the true test of the EU

CMOTDibbler

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

just a thought

EU has 2 choices and in relation to us.

It can throw all the toys out of the pram and make Ireland suffer over the result, like a spoilt child

Why would the EU do that? And we are members of the EU, we are the EU, what sort of schizoid behaviour would that be?

The_Kew_Tour

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Why would the EU do that? And we are members of the EU, we are the EU, what sort of schizoid behaviour would that be?

Well it's been harsh on many of us before, do you not remember last 8 years?

We taken hit and will for couple generations, let's see can they rectify that.

J Mysterio

Aw man. The Brexit is so depressinng.

The_Kew_Tour

David seems think we be fine

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/02/22/we-will-do-just-fine-if-theres

I agree once EU gives full backing

J Mysterio

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

I seen here and on social media that people slating Newcastle and Sunderland people, but has anyone been to either place? I doubt it cause even since 2005 when I first visited the area the amount of poverty was striking.

I can't blame them. How worse does leaving get them? Not much imo. It's only area in UK I was ever in and I been to most British Cities where saw Children beg for food during boom times

Yes but that is the fault of succesive British government going back to before Thatcher. Why would you leave the EU because of that? Its not their fault. Self immolation.

J Mysterio

whatever_ wrote: »

The Irish Government has told us that this will be bad for Ireland. However, I think this is based on a short term view taken by a government that has only a couple of years left. In that time there may well be some turmoil and uncertainty and difficulties for exporters, and it will probablyl make it more difficulty for the current government to be re-elected.

Beyond that though, I expect the Common Travel Area to survive, I expect some City jobs to move here and I expect more foreign multinationals to move here.

So I understand why they are taking a short term and pessimistic view. However, my view is quite the opposite.

I can see the benefits you mention but the main issue is trading with Britain with increased tariffs and regulatory issues. They are our main market.

I cant see the EU allowing the same rates and benefits as they stand.

Also, does the CTA rule allow people to work freely without some form of Visa?

UsBus

Mr. Farage wrote: »

Hilarious to hear the reaction by the RTE luverlies, Michael O'Leary and the rest of the establishment. They only like democracy when it suits them. Already the leave side are only the uneducated, elderly, welfare scrongers etc... according to these headcases.

Today is a glorious day not only for the UK but for democracy on the whole which has taken a beating under EU rule the last few years.

Exactly, the amount of remain voters looking for someone to blame while claiming people did not understand what they were voting for.. it's all very disrespectful towards 17 million people... maybe they just do understand what they want.

pablomakaveli

chasm wrote: »

It's all just peachy apparently, if this post being shared all over my newsfeed is anything to go by.....

"So....

The £ plummeted. A Prime Minister resigned. The FTSE 100 lost significant ground. Then the £ rallied past February levels, and the FTSE closed on a weekly high: 2.4% up on last Friday, its best performance in 4 months. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong. The French President confirmed the Le Touquet agreement would stay in place. The President of the European Commission stated Brexit negotiations would be 'orderly' and stressed the UK would continue to be a 'close partner' of the EU. A big bank denied reports it would shift 2,000 staff overseas. The CBI, vehemently anti-Brexit during the referendum campaign, stated British business was resilient and would adapt. Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately. If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom."

I've seen that and gloating from leavers on mine all day. Leave voters are in the honeymoon period at the moment. We'll have to wait and see how they'll feel in a few weeks when the reality of whats happened has more time to sink in.

CMOTDibbler

chasm wrote: »

It's all just peachy apparently, if this post being shared all over my newsfeed is anything to go by.....

"So....

Let's take these one at a time:

1. A Prime Minister resigned: Forcing the government to look inwards and members of it to spend their time jockeying for position rather than the reality that's just around the corner.

2. The FTSE 100 lost significant ground. Then the £ rallied past February levels, and the FTSE closed on a weekly high: 2.4% up on last Friday, its best performance in 4 months: The FTSE 100 is made up of mostly foreign companies. The FTSE 250 is more indicative of UK companies and was down over 7% at close, its second lowest point in three months. The pound is at a seven year low after hitting the lowest level in thirty years.

3. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong: He did not say the first and the second is not the same thing.

4. The French President confirmed the Le Touquet agreement would stay in place: He did? French politicians want it gone and the mayor of Calais too.

5. The President of the European Commission stated Brexit negotiations would be 'orderly' and stressed the UK would continue to be a 'close partner' of the EU: He said, "Here's your hat, what's your hurry". "No need to wait for a new PM, get on it now".

6. A big bank denied reports it would shift 2,000 staff overseas: And as we know from 'Yes Minister', it's never true until it's been officially denied.

7. The CBI, vehemently anti-Brexit during the referendum campaign, stated British business was resilient and would adapt: As they would. They are the Confederation of British Industry, they're not going to talk down their members.

8. Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately: Can not find anything about this, it may well be true but any trade with Britain before full exit would be subject to EU tariffs and controls.

9. If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom: Imagine if this was happening every day?

The_Kew_Tour

J Mysterio wrote: »

Yes but that is the fault of succesive British government going back to before Thatcher. Why would you leave the EU because of that? Its not their fault. Self immolation.

Well Joe Sherlock stood up for the working man in 1982 and his reward was losing his seat. The point if story is that it's not just British people who take hit on right people.

Yesterday was a anger vote, where they took blame on EU, rightly or wrongly.

J Mysterio

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Yesterday was a anger vote, where they took blame on EU, rightly or wrongly.

Yes - wrongly.

The_Kew_Tour

J Mysterio wrote: »

Yes - wrongly.

Well only time will tell, unless you have crystal ball.

CMOTDibbler

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Well only time will tell, unless you have crystal ball.

Wrongly because many used an EU vote to kick their own government and politicians* thus spectacularly shooting themselves in both feet. But also blaming the EU for internal failures.

*Anecdotally.

J Mysterio

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Well only time will tell, unless you have crystal ball.

I just have this thought that its like building a sand castle with some friends and then kicking it and running off.

If the EU was not working for them - and lets face it, there are problems - they would have been better fixing it from within then without.

The idea of the EU is progressive, commendable and logical. It just feels as if the UK have given us a F you and F your project and tge EU can only react in one way.

Of course, they have to work on reiterating and simplifying the ideals of the EU and focus on improving the status of the member states now.

The_Kew_Tour

J Mysterio wrote: »

I just have this thought that its like building a sand castle with some friends and then kicking it and running off.

If the EU was not working for them - and lets face it, there are problems - they would have been better fixing it from within then without.

The idea of the EU is progressive, commendable and logical. It just feels as if the UK have given us a F you and F your projec

That's fair enough and can't argue with that

CMOTDibbler

Just on the economic fall out from this decision. It's hard to quantify what could happen, but here's a few examples.

Irish companies with British bases have been drawing up contingency plans for a Brexit for many months. Most believed they wouldn't be necessary but took the process seriously. Those contingency plans will now be rolling out. It would be naive to think that European companies with British bases wouldn't have done the same thing. Ones with British manufacturing bases will be scaling back prouction to just serve the UK market and shift other production needs elsewhere.

British companies will freeze investment because of the uncertainty about their future. This freeze will be as protracted as the exit itself.

US companies in the UK will be looking at downsizing their operations in the UK for the same reasons. Britain may well find other trading partners but the US will not need the UK to access those markets.

Patser

chasm wrote: »

It's all just peachy apparently, if this post being shared all over my newsfeed is anything to go by.....

"So....

The £ plummeted. A Prime Minister resigned. The FTSE 100 lost significant ground. Then the £ rallied past February levels, and the FTSE closed on a weekly high: 2.4% up on last Friday, its best performance in 4 months. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong. The French President confirmed the Le Touquet agreement would stay in place. The President of the European Commission stated Brexit negotiations would be 'orderly' and stressed the UK would continue to be a 'close partner' of the EU. A big bank denied reports it would shift 2,000 staff overseas. The CBI, vehemently anti-Brexit during the referendum campaign, stated British business was resilient and would adapt. Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately. If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom."

And look what just popped up on the BBC live feed:

22:37 The White House has said that US President Barack Obama stands by comments he made that Britain would move to the "back of the queue" for trade talks in the event of a British exit from the EU, Reuters news agency reports.
Mr Obama made the comments in a visit to the UK in April.

Edit:

Oh and just spooted this from slightly earlier

Calais seeks changes to UK border deal
Posted at 21:56

The mayor of Calais wants changes to a deal which allows Britain to carry out immigration checks on the French side of the English Channel, after a UK vote to leave the EU.

edit, edit: Unrelated to quoted post but again on BBC Live feed and just brilliant

German foreign office 'off to get decently drunk'
Diplomatic service tweets
Posted at 21:17

We are off now to an Irish pub to get decently drunk. And from tomorrow on we will again work for a better #Europe! Promised! #EURef ����

CMOTDibbler

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Let's take these one at a time:

3. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong: He did not say the first and the second is not the same thing.

Patser wrote: »

And look what just popped up on the BBC live feed:

22:37 The White House has said that US President Barack Obama stands by comments he made that Britain would move to the "back of the queue" for trade talks in the event of a British exit from the EU, Reuters news agency reports.
Mr Obama made the comments in a visit to the UK in April.

As I said

CMOTDibbler

I know it's the Independent, but I laughed

4068ac1elhodqr

Economic effects: Perhaps the most significant was the USDvGBP getting to a 10yr low. £1 buys around $1.30 now, but surely UK companies will receive a boost of orders off the back of this while the USD has more buying power. Every cloud has a silver lining.

other economic news:
Investors struggle to buy as trading volumes hit record levels
The FTSE 100 recovered well after a very very bad start, now up 2% over the week, other major markets actually fared much worse.

​House prices to fall 5pc nationwide, more in London
Good, they're overpriced anyway, all those empty investment apartments owned by out-of-town Ruska billionaires, they might get used now.

'Buy gold' searches soar 500pc as sterling tumbles
Imagine silver will be up also. A steady currency for the last 6,000yrs isn't really a bad idea.

£40bn wiped off British banks as Brexit vote sinks in
Well less champagne & lobster, and more of a pre-packed sambo diet for them.

embraer170

smjm wrote: »

Simple solution to Brexit:

Carry on free trade of goods and services.
All EU citizens currently working in UK can carry on doing so. (Many qualify for UK citizenship anyway.)
Allow free movement of people between EU and UK, but not freedom to work, which would be points based.
(UK would probably still have large net inward migration, but would feel better about having some control).
No right to UK welfare/benefits for EU citizens, unless they work (legally) in the UK.

Yeah, I know, a bit too simple!

The EU is highly unlikely to accept the free movement of goods and service without the free movement of people. See the experience when the Swiss electorate tried playing games with the country's bilateral agreement with the EU.

Ally Dick

If Boris becomes PM, his gaffes will bring him down in no time

CMOTDibbler

Christina Skinny Tearfully wrote: »

Economic effects: Perhaps the most significant was the USDvGBP getting to a 10yr low. £1 buys around $1.30 now, but surely UK companies will receive a boost of orders off the back of this while the USD has more buying power. Every cloud has a silver lining.

That advantage won't be available until Britain actually leaves.

Christina Skinny Tearfully wrote: »

Investors struggle to buy as trading volumes hit record levels
The FTSE 100 recovered well after a very very bad start, now up 2% over the week, other major markets actually fared much worse.

FTSE 100 is mostly non UK companies. The FTSE 250 is more indicative and is down 7%.

Christina Skinny Tearfully wrote: »

​House prices to fall 5pc nationwide, more in London
Good, they're overpriced anyway, all those empty investment apartments owned by out-of-town Ruska billionaires, they might get used now.

5%? Really? That's massive, it'll make such a difference.

Christina Skinny Tearfully wrote: »

£40bn wiped off British banks as Brexit vote sinks in
Well less champagne & lobster, and more of a pre-packed sambo diet for them.

Stock price will make no difference to the people working there. Pensioners who's funds arer invested in them might have a different view.

Mec27

Krugman article, I'm a low IQ economics graduate but with a strong interest so I tend to take him as gospel.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/24/brexit-the-morning-after/?smid=tw-share&_r=0

K-9

Patser wrote: »

And look what just popped up on the BBC live feed:

22:37 The White House has said that US President Barack Obama stands by comments he made that Britain would move to the "back of the queue" for trade talks in the event of a British exit from the EU, Reuters news agency reports.
Mr Obama made the comments in a visit to the UK in April.

Edit:

Oh and just spooted this from slightly earlier

Calais seeks changes to UK border deal
Posted at 21:56

The mayor of Calais wants changes to a deal which allows Britain to carry out immigration checks on the French side of the English Channel, after a UK vote to leave the EU.

edit, edit: Unrelated to quoted post but again on BBC Live feed and just brilliant

German foreign office 'off to get decently drunk'
Diplomatic service tweets
Posted at 21:17

We are off now to an Irish pub to get decently drunk. And from tomorrow on we will again work for a better #Europe! Promised! #EURef ����

Yep, why would the French do the British any favours at Calais now? Makes no sense.

Bit like if non EU countries start preparing trade talks with Britain, who said they wouldn't? It's as if people don't grasp the point. The US will want to get EU deals done first because of size of GDP, power and influence, Britain would come after like Australia or Brazil.